<p>作者：Felix Vezina-Poirier</p><p>當政治家介入中央銀行的決策時，通貨膨脹、美元和股市變得更加不可預測。</p><p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾已成為中央銀行獨立性的象徵。</p><p>美國司法部向美聯儲發出了大陪審團傳票，威脅到可能的刑事起訴。雖然這很嚴重，但特朗普政府控制美聯儲的努力最終不太可能成功。這一舉動似乎旨在施壓美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在他 5 月任期結束後辭去董事會席位，儘管他作為美聯儲理事的任期將持續到 2028 年 1 月。</p><p>市場迄今反應平淡——這表明投資者認為政府的舉措將無法獲得動力。美國參議院以及債券市場代表了一個關鍵的制度約束。</p><p>對於投資者而言，中央銀行獨立性的顯著削弱將削弱美聯儲的通脹目標紀律，對股票和債券都將產生負面影響，因為市場長期以來一直假設美聯儲的獨立性將保持。這種壓力也意味着需要重新考慮對實際資產的戰略配置，包括商品、與通脹掛鈎的債券和房地產。</p><p>美聯儲獨立性與通貨膨脹</p><p>經濟波動和干擾對家庭、企業、政府和市場都是有成本的。政策制定者尋求減少這種波動的一種方式是穩定預期，特別是通脹預期。這個目標與中央銀行的獨立性緊密相關。</p><p>一個獨立的中央銀行在經濟過熱時提高利率，在經濟活動低迷時降低利率，有助於在長期和商業週期中保持利率適中。當貨幣政策旨在避免商業週期的極端情況時，經濟穩定性得以增強，且不受選舉政治家的控制。</p><p>在缺乏這種制度框架的情況下，通貨膨脹更可能變得持久和波動。債券市場需要為這種風險定價，推動長期通脹預期超過中央銀行的目標，並抬高長期利率。這反過來將提高家庭和企業的借貸成本，影響長期經濟增長。</p><p>中央銀行獨立性和通脹目標並不意味着通貨膨脹總是保持在目標水平。相反，它們意味着中央銀行將在偏離發生時果斷採取行動將通貨膨脹恢復到目標水平。</p><p>雖然高利率不受歡迎，但真正的權衡在於在經濟過熱時暫時提高利率，還是持續保持高利率。</p><p>通貨膨脹可以源於需求側力量、供給側力量或通脹預期的變化。在沒有重大沖擊的情況下，通貨膨脹應該在長期內與目標保持一致。儘管在 2021-22 年期間通貨膨脹超出預期，但美國的通脹預期仍然保持穩定。市場理解美聯儲最終會採取行動恢復價格穩定。</p><p>這突顯了中央銀行獨立性和通脹目標的另一個好處：可預測性。一個能夠應對經濟極端情況的中央銀行降低了過度通貨膨脹和失業的風險，使家庭和企業能夠在合理的確定性下進行規劃。</p><p>投資考慮</p><p>雖然我們不期望特朗普政府能夠控制美聯儲，但對中央銀行獨立性的持續壓力可能會對美元 DXY 產生負面影響。</p><p>除了監測參議院作為美聯儲主要制度防線外，投資者還應關注市場。迄今為止，市場保持平靜，反映出對參議院將維護美聯儲獨立性的信心。長期通脹預期，通過 5 年/5 年 CPI 互換進行代理，仍然穩定。</p><p>然而，這種平靜可能會形成一個危險的反饋循環。如果政策制定者將市場穩定視為對削弱獨立性的認可，諷刺的是，市場可能會因此崩潰。在這種情況下，股票將下跌，利率將上升，美元將貶值。這不是我們的基本情況，但市場動態的自我維持特性使其成為一個值得考慮的風險。</p><p>相反，如果制衡機制得以維持而不被削弱，這將加強美國在未來幾十年作為全球資本主要目的地的地位。市場的平靜依賴於參議院作為美聯儲獨立性的後盾。如果這一條件被誤解，市場將會崩潰。</p>

<p>這篇文章討論了潛在的政治干預對美聯儲獨立性的影響，特別是在特朗普政府期間。文章強調了這樣的干預可能導致經濟波動加劇，從而影響通貨膨脹、美元和股市。儘管當前市場反應平淡，但文章警告稱，美聯儲獨立性的侵蝕可能需要重新評估投資策略，特別是在實物資產方面。文章強調了參議院作為美聯儲獨立性保護者的角色，如果這種獨立性受到削弱，可能會對市場穩定帶來風險</p>

<p>By Felix Vezina-Poirier</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Felix Vezina-Poirier</p>
</div><p>When politicians get involved with central-bank decisions, inflation, the dollar and the stock market all become less predictable</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當政治家介入中央銀行的決策時，通貨膨脹、美元和股市變得更加不可預測。</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has become a symbol of central-bank independence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾已成為中央銀行獨立性的象徵。</p>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve was served grand-jury subpoenas by the U.S. Justice Department that threaten a criminal indictment. While serious, it's unlikely that the Trump administration's effort to control the Fed will ultimately succeed. The move appears aimed at pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell to step down from his board seat once his term as chair ends in May, even though his separate term as a Fed governor runs until January 2028.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國司法部向美聯儲發出了大陪審團傳票，威脅到可能的刑事起訴。雖然這很嚴重，但特朗普政府控制美聯儲的努力最終不太可能成功。這一舉動似乎旨在施壓美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在他 5 月任期結束後辭去董事會席位，儘管他作為美聯儲理事的任期將持續到 2028 年 1 月。</p>
</div><p>Markets have reacted in a muted fashion so far - an indication that investors believe the administration's initiative will fail to gain momentum. The U.S. Senate, along with the bond market, represents a key institutional constraint.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場迄今反應平淡——這表明投資者認為政府的舉措將無法獲得動力。美國參議院以及債券市場代表了一個關鍵的制度約束。</p>
</div><p>For investors, a meaningful erosion of central-bank independence would weaken the Fed's inflation-targeting discipline and be negative for both stocks and bonds, as markets have long operated under the assumption that Fed independence will hold. Such pressure also argues for rethinking strategic allocations to real assets, including commodities, inflation-linked bonds and real estate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於投資者而言，中央銀行獨立性的顯著削弱將削弱美聯儲的通脹目標紀律，對股票和債券都將產生負面影響，因為市場長期以來一直假設美聯儲的獨立性將保持。這種壓力也意味着需要重新考慮對實際資產的戰略配置，包括商品、與通脹掛鈎的債券和房地產。</p>
</div><p>Fed independence and inflation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲獨立性與通貨膨脹</p>
</div><p>Economic volatility and disruption are costly for households, businesses, governments and markets. A way policymakers seek to reduce that volatility is by stabilizing expectations, particularly inflation expectations. That objective is tightly linked to central-bank independence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經濟波動和干擾對家庭、企業、政府和市場都是有成本的。政策制定者尋求減少這種波動的一種方式是穩定預期，特別是通脹預期。這個目標與中央銀行的獨立性緊密相關。</p>
</div><p>An independent central bank raising interest rates when the economy overheats and lowering them when activity is depressed helps keep interest rates moderate over both the long run and across business cycles. Economic stability is enhanced when monetary policy, which aims to avoid extremes in the business cycle, is kept out of the hands of elected politicians.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個獨立的中央銀行在經濟過熱時提高利率，在經濟活動低迷時降低利率，有助於在長期和商業週期中保持利率適中。當貨幣政策旨在避免商業週期的極端情況時，經濟穩定性得以增強，且不受選舉政治家的控制。</p>
</div><p>Absent that institutional framework, inflation is more likely to become persistent and volatile. The bond market would need to price that risk, pushing long-term inflation expectations above the central bank's target and lifting long-term interest rates. That, in turn, would raise borrowing costs for households and businesses, weighing on long-term economic growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在缺乏這種制度框架的情況下，通貨膨脹更可能變得持久和波動。債券市場需要為這種風險定價，推動長期通脹預期超過中央銀行的目標，並抬高長期利率。這反過來將提高家庭和企業的借貸成本，影響長期經濟增長。</p>
</div><p>Central-bank independence and inflation targeting do not imply inflation always remains at target. Rather, they mean the central bank will act decisively to bring inflation back to target when deviations occur.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中央銀行獨立性和通脹目標並不意味着通貨膨脹總是保持在目標水平。相反，它們意味着中央銀行將在偏離發生時果斷採取行動將通貨膨脹恢復到目標水平。</p>
</div><p>While higher interest rates are unpopular, the real trade-off is between having them temporarily when the economy overheats or having them persistently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然高利率不受歡迎，但真正的權衡在於在經濟過熱時暫時提高利率，還是持續保持高利率。</p>
</div><p>Inflation can originate from demand-side forces, supply-side forces or shifts in inflation expectations. Absent major shocks, inflation should align with the target over the long run. Despite inflation overshooting during 2021-22, inflation expectations in the U.S. remained anchored. Markets understood that the Fed would ultimately act to restore price stability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通貨膨脹可以源於需求側力量、供給側力量或通脹預期的變化。在沒有重大沖擊的情況下，通貨膨脹應該在長期內與目標保持一致。儘管在 2021-22 年期間通貨膨脹超出預期，但美國的通脹預期仍然保持穩定。市場理解美聯儲最終會採取行動恢復價格穩定。</p>
</div><p>This highlights another benefit of central-bank independence and inflation targeting: predictability. A central bank free to counter economic extremes reduces the risk of excess inflation and unemployment, allowing households and businesses to plan with a reasonable degree of certainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這突顯了中央銀行獨立性和通脹目標的另一個好處：可預測性。一個能夠應對經濟極端情況的中央銀行降低了過度通貨膨脹和失業的風險，使家庭和企業能夠在合理的確定性下進行規劃。</p>
</div><p>Investment considerations</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資考慮</p>
</div><p>While we do not expect the Trump administration to capture the Federal Reserve, continued pressure on central-bank independence is likely to weigh on the U.S. dollar DXY.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然我們不期望特朗普政府能夠控制美聯儲，但對中央銀行獨立性的持續壓力可能會對美元 DXY 產生負面影響。</p>
</div><p>Beyond monitoring the Senate as the primary institutional defense of the Federal Reserve, investors should also watch markets. So far, markets have remained calm, reflecting confidence that the Senate will preserve Fed independence. Long-dated inflation expectations, proxied through 5-year/5-year CPI swaps, are still stable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了監測參議院作為美聯儲主要制度防線外，投資者還應關注市場。迄今為止，市場保持平靜，反映出對參議院將維護美聯儲獨立性的信心。長期通脹預期，通過 5 年/5 年 CPI 互換進行代理，仍然穩定。</p>
</div><p>However, this calm could create a dangerous feedback loop. If policymakers interpret market stability as an endorsement of diminished independence, ironically markets could then break down. In that scenario, equities would fall, interest rates would rise and the U.S. dollar would weaken. This is not our base case, but the self-sustaining nature of market dynamics makes it a risk worth considering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這種平靜可能會形成一個危險的反饋循環。如果政策制定者將市場穩定視為對削弱獨立性的認可，諷刺的是，市場可能會因此崩潰。在這種情況下，股票將下跌，利率將上升，美元將貶值。這不是我們的基本情況，但市場動態的自我維持特性使其成為一個值得考慮的風險。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, if checks and balances prevail without being weakened, it would reinforce the United States' position as a leading destination for global capital over the coming decades. Market calm is conditional on the Senate acting as a backstop to Fed independence. If that condition is misread, markets will break down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，如果制衡機制得以維持而不被削弱，這將加強美國在未來幾十年作為全球資本主要目的地的地位。市場的平靜依賴於參議院作為美聯儲獨立性的後盾。如果這一條件被誤解，市場將會崩潰。</p>
</div><p>Felix Vezina-Poirier is the chief strategist for Daily Insights, BCA Research's global cross-asset strategy service. Follow him on LinkedIn and X.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Felix Vezina-Poirier 是 Daily Insights 的首席策略師，BCA Research 的全球跨資產策略服務。請在 LinkedIn 和 X 上關注他。</p>
</div><p>More: Shocked by Trump's criminal probe into Jerome Powell? 5 things you need to know.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更多信息：對特朗普對傑羅姆·鮑威爾的刑事調查感到震驚？你需要知道的五件事。</p>
</div><p>Also read: The financial elite aren't worried about a stock-market bubble yet - but you can't afford to be so complacent</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另請閲讀：金融精英們尚未擔心股市泡沫——但你不能如此自滿。</p>
</div><p>-Felix Vezina-Poirier</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Felix Vezina-Poirier</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 獨立於道瓊斯新聞社和《華爾街日報》出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
</div><p>01-14-26 2021ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2021 年 01 月 14 日 ET</p>
</div>

如果特朗普破壞美聯儲的獨立性，您的財富和投資將面臨風險