<p>作者：Greg Robb</p><p>我們是否已經見證了可預見未來的最後一次降息？</p><p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在 12 月初的新聞發佈會上。</p><p>美聯儲官員明確表示，他們打算在本週維持基準利率不變，這讓經濟學家們開始討論一個更大的問題——中央銀行將保持觀望多久？</p><p>對快速進一步降息的預期正在消退。市場認為在七月之前不會有其他動作。但等待六個月也使得任何行動的前景變得黯淡。</p><p>“他們越是拖延降息，從經濟角度證明進一步放鬆的必要性就越高，” 富國銀行高級經濟學家莎拉·豪斯表示。</p><p>雖然在某個時刻進一步降息仍然是共識，但一些經濟學家開始對此表示懷疑。</p><p>摩根大通首席美國經濟學家邁克爾·費羅利預測，美聯儲今年將保持不變。他表示，下一次美聯儲的舉措將在 2027 年下半年加息。</p><p>美聯儲官員將於週二開始為期兩天的會議，並將在週三東部時間下午 2 點宣佈決定。美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾將在半小時後召開新聞發佈會。美聯儲自 9 月以來在連續三次會議上將基準利率下調了 75 個基點，降至 3.5%-3.75% 的區間。</p><p>儘管通脹仍遠高於美聯儲 2% 的目標，但大多數美聯儲官員支持去年的放鬆政策，因為勞動力市場看起來疲軟。官員們希望降低通脹，但不希望以高昂的代價導致經濟衰退。</p><p>閲讀：美聯儲面臨嚴峻的里程碑——通脹超過目標五年</p><p>特朗普總統的關税政策繼續擾亂經濟。面對自二戰以來未曾見過的政策選擇，經濟學家們對前景持謹慎態度。</p><p>自去年秋季政府關門結束以來，政府統計數據顯示的經濟活動似乎比許多人預期的更為穩健，勞動力市場也更為穩定。失業率在 12 月降至 4.4%。儘管如此，經濟學家們似乎仍然謹慎。</p><p>在一次採訪中，滙豐銀行首席美國經濟學家黛安·斯旺克表示，美聯儲正處於 “進退兩難” 的境地。一方面，通脹依然頑固；另一方面，似乎沒有收入增長來幫助增強勞動力市場並推動經濟發展。</p><p>在美聯儲內部，不僅存在對招聘缺乏動力的擔憂，還有對持續高企的價格壓力的關注，斯蒂菲爾的首席經濟學家林賽·皮耶加在給客户的報告中表示。她還提到，一些美聯儲官員擔心任何進一步的政策放鬆可能會加速通脹。</p><p>美聯儲官員在沒有明確證據表明通脹呈下降趨勢之前，將不願再次降息，前達拉斯聯儲主席羅伯特·卡普蘭在接受 CNBC 採訪時表示。</p><p>“我們可能會看到它（温和通脹），但他們想要看到實際數據，” 卡普蘭説。</p><p>預計通脹會改善，但要等到下半年。預計第一季度通脹會激增，因為公司重新調整價格。</p><p>金融市場預計在七月之前不會有首次降息，這恰好是在鮑威爾的任期於五月結束之後。</p><p>許多經濟學家認為，新任美聯儲主席將迅速推動降息。幾個月來，市場專業人士認為新主席的上任將自動意味着降息。</p><p>但債券市場已經改變了方向，似乎對這一前景反應消極，如果美聯儲大幅降息，長期利率將上升，波士頓學院經濟學家布賴恩·貝瑟恩表示。</p><p>BMO 資本市場首席美國經濟學家斯科特·安德森表示，他認為美聯儲週三的聲明和鮑威爾的新聞發佈會將呈現出鷹派傾向。</p><p>“目前美聯儲沒有真正的緊迫感採取任何方向的行動，” 他在一次採訪中表示。但安德森仍然預計今年將有三次降息，因為通脹降温。</p><p>高盛首席美國經濟學家大衞·梅里克爾預計將在六月降息，隨後在九月進行本輪週期的最後一次降息，將利率降至 3.25% 至 3.5% 的區間。</p><p>“我們認為未來一兩年的風險傾向於下行，因為我們認為加息的可能性相當小，但可以想象一些理由導致進一步降息，” 梅里克爾在給客户的報告中表示。</p><p>——Greg Robb</p><p>本文由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p><p>01-25-26 1513ET</p>

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<p>美聯儲預計本週將維持利率不變，經濟學家們對這一政策將持續多久展開了討論。雖然一些人預計今年晚些時候會降息，但摩根大通的邁克爾·費羅利等人預測美聯儲將在 2026 年之前保持利率不變。通脹仍高於目標水平，但勞動力市場的擔憂使決策變得複雜。美聯儲官員持謹慎態度，預計即將發佈的聲明將帶有鷹派基調。債券市場對激進的降息反應消極，一些經濟學家預見到隨着通脹降温，今年將有三次降息</p>

<p>By Greg Robb</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Greg Robb</p>
</div><p>Might we have already seen the last rate cut for the foreseeable future?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們是否已經見證了可預見未來的最後一次降息？</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell appears during his press conference in early December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在 12 月初的新聞發佈會上。</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve officials have signaled clearly that they intend to leave their benchmark interest rate unchanged this week, leaving economists to debate a larger question - how long will the central bank stay on the sidelines?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲官員明確表示，他們打算在本週維持基準利率不變，這讓經濟學家們開始討論一個更大的問題——中央銀行將保持觀望多久？</p>
</div><p>Expectations of quick further cuts are evaporating. The market doesn't see another move until July. But waiting for six months also dims the prospect of any move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對快速進一步降息的預期正在消退。市場認為在七月之前不會有其他動作。但等待六個月也使得任何行動的前景變得黯淡。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The longer they wait to cut, the higher the hurdle becomes to justify on economic grounds the need to ease further,&#34; said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“他們越是拖延降息，從經濟角度證明進一步放鬆的必要性就越高，” 富國銀行高級經濟學家莎拉·豪斯表示。</p>
</div><p>While further cuts at some point remain the consensus, a few economists are starting to doubt this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然在某個時刻進一步降息仍然是共識，但一些經濟學家開始對此表示懷疑。</p>
</div><p>Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, forecasts the Fed will be on hold all year. The next Fed move will be a hike in the latter half of 2027, he said,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通首席美國經濟學家邁克爾·費羅利預測，美聯儲今年將保持不變。他表示，下一次美聯儲的舉措將在 2027 年下半年加息。</p>
</div><p>Fed officials will meet for two days starting Tuesday and announce a decision at 2 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will follow up with a press conference a half hour later. The Fed lowered its benchmark rate by 75 basis points at three successive meetings starting in September to a range of 3.5%-3.75%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲官員將於週二開始為期兩天的會議，並將在週三東部時間下午 2 點宣佈決定。美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾將在半小時後召開新聞發佈會。美聯儲自 9 月以來在連續三次會議上將基準利率下調了 75 個基點，降至 3.5%-3.75% 的區間。</p>
</div><p>Even though inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, the majority of Fed officials backed last year's easing because the labor market was looking frail. Officials want to get inflation lower but not at the high cost of a recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管通脹仍遠高於美聯儲 2% 的目標，但大多數美聯儲官員支持去年的放鬆政策，因為勞動力市場看起來疲軟。官員們希望降低通脹，但不希望以高昂的代價導致經濟衰退。</p>
</div><p>Read: The Fed faces a grim milestone - inflation above target for five years</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>閲讀：美聯儲面臨嚴峻的里程碑——通脹超過目標五年</p>
</div><p>President Donald Trump's tariff policy continues to roil the economy. Faced with policy choices not seen since before World War II, economists are cautious in their outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普總統的關税政策繼續擾亂經濟。面對自二戰以來未曾見過的政策選擇，經濟學家們對前景持謹慎態度。</p>
</div><p>Government statistics since the end of last fall's government shutdown seem to show more solid activity and a more stable labor market than many had expected. The unemployment rate retreated to 4.4% in December. Still, economists seem wary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自去年秋季政府關門結束以來，政府統計數據顯示的經濟活動似乎比許多人預期的更為穩健，勞動力市場也更為穩定。失業率在 12 月降至 4.4%。儘管如此，經濟學家們似乎仍然謹慎。</p>
</div><p>In an interview, Diane Swonk, chief U.S. economist at HSBC, said the Fed was &#34;between a rock and hard place.&#34; On the one hand, inflation has been sticky. On the other hand, there seems to be no income growth to help strengthen the labor market and power the economy forward, she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一次採訪中，滙豐銀行首席美國經濟學家黛安·斯旺克表示，美聯儲正處於 “進退兩難” 的境地。一方面，通脹依然頑固；另一方面，似乎沒有收入增長來幫助增強勞動力市場並推動經濟發展。</p>
</div><p>At the Fed, there is a divide between not only those increasingly concerned about a lack of momentum in hiring and those still focused on lingering elevated price pressures, said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel, in a note to clients. There is also worry among at least some Fed officials that any further policy easing could risk an acceleration in inflation, she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美聯儲內部，不僅存在對招聘缺乏動力的擔憂，還有對持續高企的價格壓力的關注，斯蒂菲爾的首席經濟學家林賽·皮耶加在給客户的報告中表示。她還提到，一些美聯儲官員擔心任何進一步的政策放鬆可能會加速通脹。</p>
</div><p>Fed officials will be reluctant to cut again until there is clear evidence that inflation is on a downward trend, said former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, in a CNBC interview.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲官員在沒有明確證據表明通脹呈下降趨勢之前，將不願再次降息，前達拉斯聯儲主席羅伯特·卡普蘭在接受 CNBC 採訪時表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We may get it [soft inflation], but they want to see it,&#34; Kaplan said,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們可能會看到它（温和通脹），但他們想要看到實際數據，” 卡普蘭説。</p>
</div><p>Improvement in inflation is expected, but not until the second half of the year. Inflation is expected to spike in the first quarter as companies reset their prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計通脹會改善，但要等到下半年。預計第一季度通脹會激增，因為公司重新調整價格。</p>
</div><p>Financial markets don't have the first rate cut priced in until July, after Powell's term as chair ends in May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融市場預計在七月之前不會有首次降息，這恰好是在鮑威爾的任期於五月結束之後。</p>
</div><p>Many economists think the new Fed chair will push quickly for lower rates. For months, market pros thought the new chair would automatically mean rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多經濟學家認為，新任美聯儲主席將迅速推動降息。幾個月來，市場專業人士認為新主席的上任將自動意味着降息。</p>
</div><p>But the bond market has switched gears and looks like it would react negatively to that prospect, pushing long-term rates higher if the Fed cuts aggressively, said Brian Bethune, an economist at Boston College.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但債券市場已經改變了方向，似乎對這一前景反應消極，如果美聯儲大幅降息，長期利率將上升，波士頓學院經濟學家布賴恩·貝瑟恩表示。</p>
</div><p>Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Capital Markets, said he thinks there will be a hawkish tilt to the Fed's statement Wednesday and to Powell's press conference.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BMO 資本市場首席美國經濟學家斯科特·安德森表示，他認為美聯儲週三的聲明和鮑威爾的新聞發佈會將呈現出鷹派傾向。</p>
</div><p>&#34;There's no real urgency for the Fed to act in any direction at the moment,&#34; he said in an interview. But Anderson still expects three cuts this year as inflation cools.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“目前美聯儲沒有真正的緊迫感採取任何方向的行動，” 他在一次採訪中表示。但安德森仍然預計今年將有三次降息，因為通脹降温。</p>
</div><p>David Mericle, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs, sees a rate cut in June followed by a final cut to the cycle in September, bringing rates down to a range of 3.25% to 3.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛首席美國經濟學家大衞·梅里克爾預計將在六月降息，隨後在九月進行本輪週期的最後一次降息，將利率降至 3.25% 至 3.5% 的區間。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We see the risks over the next year or two as tilted to the downside because we think hikes are quite unlikely, but could imagine a few reasons for additional cuts,&#34; Mericle said in a note to clients.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們認為未來一兩年的風險傾向於下行，因為我們認為加息的可能性相當小，但可以想象一些理由導致進一步降息，” 梅里克爾在給客户的報告中表示。</p>
</div><p>-Greg Robb</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>——Greg Robb</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
</div><p>01-25-26 1513ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>01-25-26 1513ET</p>
</div>

預計美聯儲本週將維持現狀。關鍵的問題是這種狀態會持續多久？