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<p>英國經濟在經歷數月的不確定性後，正顯現出更清晰的復甦跡象，商業信心有所改善，消費者的悲觀情緒略有減輕。</p>
<p>這一變化發生在財政部長瑞秋·裏夫斯（Rachel Reeves）於 11 月發表年度預算聲明之後，當時家庭和僱主仍在適應疲弱的增長和頑固的價格壓力。</p>
<p>上週發佈的調查顯示，1 月份是自基爾·斯塔默（Keir Starmer）於 2024 年 7 月成為首相以來，企業表現最好的一個月。</p>
<p>消費者信心也有所上升，達到了自去年 8 月以來的最高水平。</p>
<p>官方數據顯示，12 月份零售銷售量以自 4 月以來最快的年增速上升，進一步增強了樂觀情緒。</p>
<p>儘管如此，英國的復甦仍然不均衡。勞動力市場依然顯得疲軟，部分原因與裏夫斯去年引入的工資税增加有關。</p>
<p>通貨膨脹仍高於其他主要發達經濟體，使得英國在七國集團中面臨最強的價格壓力。</p>
<h2>商業反彈引起關注</h2>
<p>商業調查一直是經濟穩定的強烈信號之一。採購經理人指數數據顯示，本月活動的上升速度是自 2024 年 4 月以來最快的，主要由服務行業推動。</p>
<p>工廠的情況也有所改善，訂單量以近四年來最快的速度增長。</p>
<p>在經歷了一段時間的投資決策猶豫、需求放緩和嚴格的成本控制後，這一反彈顯得尤為突出。考慮到服務業在英國經濟中的重要性，服務活動尤其重要。</p>
<p>對於製造商而言，訂單量的改善表明需求不再像許多公司擔心的那樣疲弱。</p>
<p>然而，分析師警告不要假設信心的躍升會持續。</p>
<p>儘管 1 月份有所上升，標準普爾全球採購經理人指數仍低於斯塔默執政前的平均水平，顯示出活動仍未完全恢復到疫情前和隨後的經濟衝擊之前的正常水平。</p>
<h2>消費者略顯積極</h2>
<p>消費者仍然謹慎，但一些指標表明情緒開始轉變。GfK 的消費者信心指數本月再次小幅上升，達到了自 2024 年 8 月以來的最佳水平。</p>
<p>這一改善暗示家庭在消費決策上可能感到的焦慮較 2024 年末有所減輕。</p>
<p>然而，其他指標卻顯示出不同的情況。標準普爾全球表示，其較短的 1 月份調查顯示消費者信心降至九個月來的最低點。</p>
<p>這種對比突顯了信心的脆弱性，以及如果家庭感受到成本上升或工作不安全，態度可能迅速改變。</p>
<p>消費數據也呈現出混合的趨勢。官方數據顯示，12 月份零售銷售量在 10 月和 11 月疲軟的結果後意外上升。</p>
<p>這一增長是自 4 月以來最快的年增速，提供了一些安慰，表明需求在年末保持穩定。</p>
<p>然而，其他地方的較軟數據表明，消費復甦可能並不廣泛。</p>
<p>一些主要零售商報告了令人失望的年末銷售，強調消費者仍然很挑剔，尤其是在非必需品的購買上。</p>
<h2>GDP 意外增長增添改善信號</h2>
<p>英國的產出數據在去年底也交出了強於預期的成績。經濟在 11 月份增長了 0.3%，標誌着自 6 月以來最快的月度增長。</p>
<p>這些數據令經濟學家感到驚訝，並提供了更多證據，表明在新年到來之前，增長勢頭強於預期。</p>
<p>部分增長來自捷豹路虎（Jaguar Land Rover）在經歷網絡攻擊導致活動中斷後恢復全面生產。產出的反彈幫助提升了製造業表現，並推動了 GDP 的整體增長。</p>
<p>強於預期的服務活動也發揮了作用，再次突顯了服務業通常是英國經濟表現的關鍵驅動力。</p>
<p>雖然一個月的數據並不能確立明確的趨勢，但 11 月份的讀數表明，經濟在 2024 年下半年比許多指標所暗示的更具韌性。</p>
<h2>通脹和招聘仍然是薄弱環節</h2>
<p>儘管活動信號有所改善，通貨膨脹仍然是一個持續的挑戰。</p>
<p>消費者價格增長在 12 月份超出預期上升至 3.4%，給家庭預算帶來壓力，並使更廣泛的經濟形勢複雜化。</p>
<p>英國繼續在七國集團中記錄最高的通貨膨脹，進一步強調了生活成本壓力為何在經濟和政治辯論中佔據中心地位。</p>
<p>預計通貨膨脹在未來幾個月將急劇放緩。英格蘭銀行行長安德魯·貝利（Andrew Bailey）表示，預計到 4 月或 5 月將接近央行的 2% 目標。</p>
<p>然而，並非所有政策制定者都對此感到同樣的安心。</p>
<p>梅根·格林（Megan Greene）週五表示，她仍然對持續的工資驅動的通脹壓力感到擔憂，這可能導致價格增長在更長時間內保持高位。</p>
<p>與此同時，勞動力市場幾乎沒有改善的跡象。</p>
<p>12 月份，工資員工人數下降幅度為 2020 年 11 月以來最大，儘管在此期間的類似早期估計後來被上調。</p>
<p>即便如此，最新的下降加劇了對招聘需求減弱的擔憂。</p>
<p>商業調查也指向同一方向。採購經理人指數數據顯示，僱主對招聘仍持謹慎態度，服務行業的就業在 1 月份的下降速度快於 12 月份。</p>
<p>這表明，儘管商業產出和信心可能在改善，但公司在成本仍高和需求不確定的情況下，仍對新員工的承諾持謹慎態度。</p>
<p>本文首發於 Invezz，標題為《商業信心提升英國經濟，但通脹和就業仍然令人擔憂》。</p>

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<p>英國經濟在財政部長 Rachel Reeves 的預算聲明後，顯示出復甦的跡象，商業信心和消費者情緒有所改善。商業調查顯示，自 2024 年 7 月以來，活動表現最佳的月份，而零售銷售則以自 4 月以來最快的速度增長。然而，挑戰依然存在，包括疲軟的勞動市場和持續的通貨膨脹，後者在七國集團中處於最高水平。儘管 11 月份的 GDP 增長超出預期，達到 0.3%，分析師警告稱，復甦可能並不全面，消費者信心依然脆弱</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/20260126_1159_Image-Generation_simple_compose_01kfwfvg6be4hvw5mqhh1cke9x.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/20260126_1159_Image-Generation_simple_compose_01kfwfvg6be4hvw5mqhh1cke9x.png"/></p>
<p>Britain’s economy is showing clearer signs of life after months of uncertainty, with business confidence improving and consumers becoming slightly less pessimistic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英國經濟在經歷數月的不確定性後，正顯現出更清晰的復甦跡象，商業信心有所改善，消費者的悲觀情緒略有減輕。</p>
</div><p>The shift follows finance minister Rachel Reeves’ annual budget statement in November, which came at a time when households and employers were still adjusting to weak growth and stubborn price pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一變化發生在財政部長瑞秋·裏夫斯（Rachel Reeves）於 11 月發表年度預算聲明之後，當時家庭和僱主仍在適應疲弱的增長和頑固的價格壓力。</p>
</div><p>Surveys published last week suggested January was the best month for businesses since before Keir Starmer became prime minister in July 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週發佈的調查顯示，1 月份是自基爾·斯塔默（Keir Starmer）於 2024 年 7 月成為首相以來，企業表現最好的一個月。</p>
</div><p>Consumer confidence also moved higher, reaching its strongest reading since August last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消費者信心也有所上升，達到了自去年 8 月以來的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Official data added to the brighter tone, with retail sales volumes rising in December at the fastest annual pace since April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>官方數據顯示，12 月份零售銷售量以自 4 月以來最快的年增速上升，進一步增強了樂觀情緒。</p>
</div><p>Still, Britain’s recovery remains uneven. The labour market continues to look subdued, partly linked to a payroll tax increase introduced by Reeves last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，英國的復甦仍然不均衡。勞動力市場依然顯得疲軟，部分原因與裏夫斯去年引入的工資税增加有關。</p>
</div><p>Inflation remains higher than in other major advanced economies, leaving the UK with the strongest price pressures among the Group of Seven.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通貨膨脹仍高於其他主要發達經濟體，使得英國在七國集團中面臨最強的價格壓力。</p>
</div><h2>Business bounce-back gains attention</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>商業反彈引起關注</h2>
</div><p>Business surveys have been one of the strongest signals that the economy is stabilising. Purchasing managers’ index data showed the fastest upturn in activity this month since April 2024, led by services firms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商業調查一直是經濟穩定的強烈信號之一。採購經理人指數數據顯示，本月活動的上升速度是自 2024 年 4 月以來最快的，主要由服務行業推動。</p>
</div><p>Factories also reported improving conditions, with order books expanding at the quickest pace in almost four years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>工廠的情況也有所改善，訂單量以近四年來最快的速度增長。</p>
</div><p>The rebound stands out after a long stretch of hesitant investment decisions, slower demand, and tight cost control. Services activity has been particularly important, given its weight in the UK economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在經歷了一段時間的投資決策猶豫、需求放緩和嚴格的成本控制後，這一反彈顯得尤為突出。考慮到服務業在英國經濟中的重要性，服務活動尤其重要。</p>
</div><p>For manufacturers, the improvement in order books suggests demand is no longer as weak as many companies feared.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於製造商而言，訂單量的改善表明需求不再像許多公司擔心的那樣疲弱。</p>
</div><p>However, analysts have warned against assuming the jump in confidence will last.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，分析師警告不要假設信心的躍升會持續。</p>
</div><p>Despite January’s rise, the S&amp;P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index remains below its pre-COVID average under Starmer, showing that activity is still not fully back to the levels that were normal before the pandemic and the subsequent economic shocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 1 月份有所上升，標準普爾全球採購經理人指數仍低於斯塔默執政前的平均水平，顯示出活動仍未完全恢復到疫情前和隨後的經濟衝擊之前的正常水平。</p>
</div><h2>Consumers turn slightly more positive</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>消費者略顯積極</h2>
</div><p>Consumers are still cautious, but some indicators suggest sentiment is beginning to shift. GfK’s consumer confidence index edged higher again this month, reaching its best level since August 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消費者仍然謹慎，但一些指標表明情緒開始轉變。GfK 的消費者信心指數本月再次小幅上升，達到了自 2024 年 8 月以來的最佳水平。</p>
</div><p>That improvement hints that households may be feeling less anxious about spending decisions compared with late 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一改善暗示家庭在消費決策上可能感到的焦慮較 2024 年末有所減輕。</p>
</div><p>Other measures, though, tell a different story. S&amp;P Global said its shorter January survey showed consumer sentiment slipping to a nine-month low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，其他指標卻顯示出不同的情況。標準普爾全球表示，其較短的 1 月份調查顯示消費者信心降至九個月來的最低點。</p>
</div><p>The contrast highlights how fragile confidence remains, and how quickly attitudes can change if households sense rising costs or job insecurity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種對比突顯了信心的脆弱性，以及如果家庭感受到成本上升或工作不安全，態度可能迅速改變。</p>
</div><p>Spending data has also been mixed. Official figures showed retail sales volumes rose unexpectedly in December after weak results in October and November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消費數據也呈現出混合的趨勢。官方數據顯示，12 月份零售銷售量在 10 月和 11 月疲軟的結果後意外上升。</p>
</div><p>The increase was the fastest annual pace since April, offering some reassurance that demand held up heading into the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一增長是自 4 月以來最快的年增速，提供了一些安慰，表明需求在年末保持穩定。</p>
</div><p>Yet softer readings elsewhere suggest the recovery in spending may not be broad-based.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，其他地方的較軟數據表明，消費復甦可能並不廣泛。</p>
</div><p>Some major retailers have reported underwhelming end-of-year sales, underlining that consumers are still selective, particularly for discretionary purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些主要零售商報告了令人失望的年末銷售，強調消費者仍然很挑剔，尤其是在非必需品的購買上。</p>
</div><h2>GDP surprise adds to improving signals</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>GDP 意外增長增添改善信號</h2>
</div><p>Britain’s output data also delivered a stronger-than-expected reading late last year. The economy grew by 0.3% in November, marking the fastest monthly rise since June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英國的產出數據在去年底也交出了強於預期的成績。經濟在 11 月份增長了 0.3%，標誌着自 6 月以來最快的月度增長。</p>
</div><p>The figures surprised economists and offered more evidence that growth momentum was stronger than expected ahead of the new year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些數據令經濟學家感到驚訝，並提供了更多證據，表明在新年到來之前，增長勢頭強於預期。</p>
</div><p>Part of the boost came from Jaguar Land Rover returning to full production after a cyberattack disrupted activity earlier. The rebound in output helped lift manufacturing performance and contributed to the overall rise in GDP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>部分增長來自捷豹路虎（Jaguar Land Rover）在經歷網絡攻擊導致活動中斷後恢復全面生產。產出的反彈幫助提升了製造業表現，並推動了 GDP 的整體增長。</p>
</div><p>Stronger-than-expected services activity also played a role, once again highlighting how the services sector is often the key driver for UK economic performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>強於預期的服務活動也發揮了作用，再次突顯了服務業通常是英國經濟表現的關鍵驅動力。</p>
</div><p>While one month’s data does not set a clear trend, the November reading suggests the economy was more resilient than many indicators had implied in the second half of 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然一個月的數據並不能確立明確的趨勢，但 11 月份的讀數表明，經濟在 2024 年下半年比許多指標所暗示的更具韌性。</p>
</div><h2>Inflation and hiring remain weak spots</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>通脹和招聘仍然是薄弱環節</h2>
</div><p>Despite improved activity signals, inflation remains a persistent challenge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管活動信號有所改善，通貨膨脹仍然是一個持續的挑戰。</p>
</div><p>Consumer price growth rose more than forecast to 3.4% in December, keeping pressure on household budgets and complicating the wider economic picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消費者價格增長在 12 月份超出預期上升至 3.4%，給家庭預算帶來壓力，並使更廣泛的經濟形勢複雜化。</p>
</div><p>The UK continues to record the highest inflation among the G7, reinforcing why cost-of-living pressures remain central to economic and political debate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英國繼續在七國集團中記錄最高的通貨膨脹，進一步強調了生活成本壓力為何在經濟和政治辯論中佔據中心地位。</p>
</div><p>Inflation is expected to slow sharply in the coming months. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has said it is likely to be close to the central bank’s 2% target by April or May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計通貨膨脹在未來幾個月將急劇放緩。英格蘭銀行行長安德魯·貝利（Andrew Bailey）表示，預計到 4 月或 5 月將接近央行的 2% 目標。</p>
</div><p>However, not all policymakers share the same level of comfort.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，並非所有政策制定者都對此感到同樣的安心。</p>
</div><p>Megan Greene said on Friday she remained concerned about lingering wage-driven inflation pressures, a factor that could keep price growth elevated for longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>梅根·格林（Megan Greene）週五表示，她仍然對持續的工資驅動的通脹壓力感到擔憂，這可能導致價格增長在更長時間內保持高位。</p>
</div><p>The labour market, meanwhile, is showing little sign of improvement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，勞動力市場幾乎沒有改善的跡象。</p>
</div><p>The number of payrolled workers fell in December by the most since November 2020, although similar early estimates during that period were later revised upwards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>12 月份，工資員工人數下降幅度為 2020 年 11 月以來最大，儘管在此期間的類似早期估計後來被上調。</p>
</div><p>Even so, the latest drop has added to concerns that hiring demand is weakening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即便如此，最新的下降加劇了對招聘需求減弱的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>Business surveys point in the same direction. The PMI data showed employers remained wary about recruitment, with employment in the services sector declining at a faster rate in January than in December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商業調查也指向同一方向。採購經理人指數數據顯示，僱主對招聘仍持謹慎態度，服務行業的就業在 1 月份的下降速度快於 12 月份。</p>
</div><p>This suggests that while business output and confidence may be improving, companies are still cautious about committing to new staff as costs remain high and demand remains uncertain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這表明，儘管商業產出和信心可能在改善，但公司在成本仍高和需求不確定的情況下，仍對新員工的承諾持謹慎態度。</p>
</div><p>The post Business confidence lifts UK economy as inflation and jobs remain a worry appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文首發於 Invezz，標題為《商業信心提升英國經濟，但通脹和就業仍然令人擔憂》。</p>
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Business confidence lifts UK economy as inflation and jobs remain a worry

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RBS Market Access SICAV - RBS Market Access Leveraged FTSE 100 Monthly Index ETF Capitalisation

RBS Market Access Short FTSE 100 Monthly Index ETF

HSBC FTSE 250 UCITS ETF

HSBC FTSE 100 UCITS ETF

iShares PLC - iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF Accum Hedged USD

Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF

iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF GBP (Acc)

商業信心提升了英國經濟，但通脹和就業問題仍然是令人擔憂的因素