<p>作者：馬克·霍爾伯特</p>
<p>黃金投資者仍然過於樂觀</p>
<p>上週五黃金的暴跌並不是其掙扎的終點。即使在上週五暴跌之後，黃金投資者仍然表現得非常興奮。</p>
<p>這種缺乏看跌恐懼的現象讓逆向分析師認為黃金（GC00）還有更多下行空間。</p>
<p>考慮一下我所監測的幾十位黃金市場定時器的平均推薦黃金市場敞口。（這個平均值由霍爾伯特黃金通訊情緒指數（HGNSI）表示。）在上週五的大跌之前，HGNSI 的水平在過去 25 年中幾乎從未見過，達到了自 2000 年以來日常分佈的 99.7 百分位。HGNSI 在週五僅小幅下跌，因此仍高於自 2000 年以來 84.4% 的所有交易日。逆向 “買入” 信號出現在這個百分比降到 10% 以下時。</p>
<p>閲讀：摩根大通和德意志銀行表示在黃金的弱勢中買入</p>
<p>此外：“看跌吞沒” 形態在警告你：不要在黃金礦業股票中買入回調</p>
<p>傾聽逆向分析師的聲音</p>
<p>逆向分析在這樣的時刻非常有用，因為沒有它，上週五的下跌就是一個謎。分析師被迫尋找基本面的解釋。但在當前的情況下，至少他們將徒勞無功：上週五黃金沒有發生任何基本面的變化來證明當天的大幅下跌。</p>
<p>例如，一些分析師推測，通脹預期可能在週五下降——可能是因為特朗普總統提名凱文·沃什擔任下一任美聯儲主席。如果是這樣，這可能解釋了黃金的下跌，因為黃金通常被視為通脹對沖，而沃什被認為是通脹鷹派。</p>
<p>但證據並不支持這一點。以突破性通脹率為例，這是投資者在持有名義國債和通脹保護國債（TIPS）之間無所謂的利率。這個突破性利率代表了市場對未來幾年通脹規模的集體判斷。週五，5 年期和 10 年期的突破性利率都上升——這否定了降低通脹預期導致黃金大幅下跌的可能性。</p>
<p>杜克大學富卡商學院的金融教授坎貝爾·哈維同意將沃什的提名歸咎於黃金週五大跌是個錯誤。哈維最近撰寫了幾篇研究分析黃金在投資者投資組合中的作用的論文（包括《理解黃金》、《黃金與比特幣》和《代幣化黃金》）。他在週末的一封電子郵件中寫道，將週五的下跌歸因於沃什的提名是一個 “紅鯡魚”。</p>
<p>其他分析師推測，經濟政策不確定性可能在週五大幅下降。這也可能解釋黃金的下跌，因為這種黃色金屬也被視為對這種不確定性的對沖。但同樣，證據並不支持這一可能性。儘管經濟政策不確定性（EPU）指數在日常波動中相當不穩定，因此包含很多噪音，但我注意到在一月份有九天 EPU 低於月底的水平——然而黃金在那些其他日子並沒有暴跌。</p>
<p>底線是什麼？在黃金暴跌之前，市場上存在廣泛的興奮情緒，而這種興奮情緒只有一小部分被擠出市場。預計在接下來的日子和幾周內，黃金價格和投資者將繼續掙扎。</p>
<p>馬克·霍爾伯特是 MarketWatch 的定期撰稿人。他的霍爾伯特評級跟蹤支付固定費用進行審計的投資通訊。他的聯繫方式是 mark@hulbertratings.com</p>
<p>更多：黃金和白銀的 7 萬億美元抹去帶來了關於風險的痛苦教訓</p>
<p>另請閲讀：凱文·沃什並不是投資者認為的那樣——你如何從他們的錯誤中獲利</p>
<p>——馬克·霍爾伯特</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞社和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
<p>02-02-26 1508ET</p>

德銀貴金屬基金 - PowerShares

金礦小盤股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

中金黃金

<p>黃金價格最近大幅下跌，但由於投資者仍然過於樂觀，拋售預計將繼續。Hulbert 黃金通訊情緒指數表明，市場情緒仍然高漲，這暗示着進一步下跌的可能性。分析師們認為，通脹預期或經濟政策不確定性等基本面因素並沒有證據支持，因此被駁斥。黃金市場的整體過度興奮尚未得到足夠的緩解，這導致人們預測黃金價格在不久的將來將繼續面臨困境</p>

<p>By Mark Hulbert</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：馬克·霍爾伯特</p>
</div><p>Gold investors are still too bullish</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金投資者仍然過於樂觀</p>
</div><p>Gold's plunge last Friday is not the end of its struggles. That's because, even in the wake of Friday's plunge, gold investors are still exuberant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週五黃金的暴跌並不是其掙扎的終點。即使在上週五暴跌之後，黃金投資者仍然表現得非常興奮。</p>
</div><p>This absence of bearish fear suggests to contrarian analysts that more downside is ahead for gold (GC00).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種缺乏看跌恐懼的現象讓逆向分析師認為黃金（GC00）還有更多下行空間。</p>
</div><p>Consider the average recommended gold-market exposure among a sample of several dozen gold-market timers monitored by my performance-auditing firm. (This average is represented by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI.) Prior to Friday's big drop, the HGNSI stood at levels hardly ever seen over the last 21/2 decades - at the 99.7th percentile of its daily distribution since 2000. The HGNSI dropped only slightly on Friday and, as a result, it's still higher than on 84.4% of all trading days since 2000. Contrarian &#34;buy&#34; signals come when this percentage falls below 10%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮一下我所監測的幾十位黃金市場定時器的平均推薦黃金市場敞口。（這個平均值由霍爾伯特黃金通訊情緒指數（HGNSI）表示。）在上週五的大跌之前，HGNSI 的水平在過去 25 年中幾乎從未見過，達到了自 2000 年以來日常分佈的 99.7 百分位。HGNSI 在週五僅小幅下跌，因此仍高於自 2000 年以來 84.4% 的所有交易日。逆向 “買入” 信號出現在這個百分比降到 10% 以下時。</p>
</div><p>Read: Buy into gold's weakness, say JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>閲讀：摩根大通和德意志銀行表示在黃金的弱勢中買入</p>
</div><p>Also: 'Bearish engulfing' patterns are warning you: Don't buy the dip in gold-miner stocks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外：“看跌吞沒” 形態在警告你：不要在黃金礦業股票中買入回調</p>
</div><p>Listen to the contrarians</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>傾聽逆向分析師的聲音</p>
</div><p>Contrarian analysis is useful in times like this because, without it, drops such as Friday's are a mystery. Analysts are forced to look for fundamental explanations. But in the current instance, at least, they will look in vain: Nothing fundamental changed with gold on Friday to justify the day's big decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>逆向分析在這樣的時刻非常有用，因為沒有它，上週五的下跌就是一個謎。分析師被迫尋找基本面的解釋。但在當前的情況下，至少他們將徒勞無功：上週五黃金沒有發生任何基本面的變化來證明當天的大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>Some analysts, for example, speculated that inflation expectations must have dropped on Friday - possibly in reaction to President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. If so, that could have accounted for gold's drop, since gold is often considered an inflation hedge and Warsh is considered an inflation hawk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，一些分析師推測，通脹預期可能在週五下降——可能是因為特朗普總統提名凱文·沃什擔任下一任美聯儲主席。如果是這樣，這可能解釋了黃金的下跌，因為黃金通常被視為通脹對沖，而沃什被認為是通脹鷹派。</p>
</div><p>But the evidence doesn't support this. Take the break-even inflation rate, which is the rate at which investors are indifferent between holding nominal Treasurys and inflation-protected Treasurys (TIPS). This break-even rate represents the market's collective judgment of inflation's magnitude in the coming years. Both the 5-year and 10-year break-even rates rose on Friday - dismissing the possibility that reduced inflation expectations caused gold's big price drop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但證據並不支持這一點。以突破性通脹率為例，這是投資者在持有名義國債和通脹保護國債（TIPS）之間無所謂的利率。這個突破性利率代表了市場對未來幾年通脹規模的集體判斷。週五，5 年期和 10 年期的突破性利率都上升——這否定了降低通脹預期導致黃金大幅下跌的可能性。</p>
</div><p>Campbell Harvey, a finance professor at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business, agreed that it's a mistake to blame the Warsh announcement for gold's big Friday drop. Harvey has authored several studies recently analyzing gold's role in investors' portfolios (including &#34;Understanding Gold,&#34; &#34;Gold and Bitcoin&#34; and &#34;Tokenized Gold&#34;). In an email over the weekend, he wrote that attributing Friday's drop to Warsh's nomination is a &#34;red herring.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>杜克大學富卡商學院的金融教授坎貝爾·哈維同意將沃什的提名歸咎於黃金週五大跌是個錯誤。哈維最近撰寫了幾篇研究分析黃金在投資者投資組合中的作用的論文（包括《理解黃金》、《黃金與比特幣》和《代幣化黃金》）。他在週末的一封電子郵件中寫道，將週五的下跌歸因於沃什的提名是一個 “紅鯡魚”。</p>
</div><p>Other analysts have speculated that economic policy uncertainty might have fallen dramatically on Friday. That could have also accounted for gold's drop, since the yellow metal is also considered a hedge against that uncertainty. But once again, the evidence doesn't support that possibility. Though the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index is quite volatile on a day-to-day basis and therefore contains a lot of noise, I note that there were nine other days in January when the EPU was lower than where it stood at the end of the month - and yet gold didn't plunge on any of those other days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他分析師推測，經濟政策不確定性可能在週五大幅下降。這也可能解釋黃金的下跌，因為這種黃色金屬也被視為對這種不確定性的對沖。但同樣，證據並不支持這一可能性。儘管經濟政策不確定性（EPU）指數在日常波動中相當不穩定，因此包含很多噪音，但我注意到在一月份有九天 EPU 低於月底的水平——然而黃金在那些其他日子並沒有暴跌。</p>
</div><p>The bottom line? There was widespread exuberance in the gold market prior to its plunge, and only a small part of that exuberance has been wrung out of the market. Expect gold prices - and investors - to struggle in the days and weeks ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>底線是什麼？在黃金暴跌之前，市場上存在廣泛的興奮情緒，而這種興奮情緒只有一小部分被擠出市場。預計在接下來的日子和幾周內，黃金價格和投資者將繼續掙扎。</p>
</div><p>Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>馬克·霍爾伯特是 MarketWatch 的定期撰稿人。他的霍爾伯特評級跟蹤支付固定費用進行審計的投資通訊。他的聯繫方式是 mark@hulbertratings.com</p>
</div><p>More: Gold and silver's $7 trillion wipeout delivers a painful lesson about risk</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更多：黃金和白銀的 7 萬億美元抹去帶來了關於風險的痛苦教訓</p>
</div><p>Also read: Kevin Warsh isn't who investors think he is - how you can profit from their mistake</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另請閲讀：凱文·沃什並不是投資者認為的那樣——你如何從他們的錯誤中獲利</p>
</div><p>-Mark Hulbert</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>——馬克·霍爾伯特</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞社和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
</div><p>02-02-26 1508ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>02-02-26 1508ET</p>
</div>

Here's the real reason gold prices plunged - and why the selloff likely isn't over yet

Dow Jones

2 倍做多黃金 ETF - ProShares

華夏黃金ETF

Gold.com

Kinross Gold

阿尼科伊格爾礦業

貴金屬股 ETF -ETFS

紫金礦業

紐蒙特礦業

全球黃金礦業股 MSCI ETF - iShares

實物黃金股 ETF - ETFS

黃金 ETF - iShares

黃金和貴金屬礦商 ETF - U.S. Global

黃金勘探商 ETF - GlobalX

金礦股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

2 倍做空黃金 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做空黃金 ETN - 德銀

山東黃金

SPDR 金 ETF

這才是金價暴跌的真正原因——以及為什麼拋售可能尚未結束