<h3><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcxZjcz10aW55c3JnYhZoPTc1MBZ3PTEyNjA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcxZjcz10aW55c3JnYhZoPTc1MBZ3PTEyNjA"/></h3>
<p><em>圖片來源：Pexels</em></p>
<h3><strong>七巨頭的失誤</strong></h3>
<p>在新英格蘭愛國者隊追求他們第七個隆巴迪獎盃的那一天，股市就像職業足球一樣，時不時地重新發現，沒有明星單靠個人能力贏得比賽。2023 年到 2025 年末的很長一段時間裏，美國股票的表現彷彿這一原則被廢除了。那些市值與國家 GDP 相當的七大科技巨頭——“超級碗指數”——像一位世代傳承的四分衞一樣，不斷將兩個指數和經濟指標推高。其餘不受歡迎的市場則在場邊落後。</p>
<p>那個時代已經過去。七巨頭——在規模、利潤率和增長方面都非常出色——在今年開局時卻出現了失誤。在上一季度表現不佳後，他們的綜合指數年初至今下跌超過 3.2%。與此同時，替補球員——小型和中型公司，已經在今年大幅上漲，漲幅達到 6% 到 9%。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://execspec.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Mid-cap-vs-MAGS-02-08-26-1024x582.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://execspec.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Mid-cap-vs-MAGS-02-08-26-1024x582.png"/></p>
<p>價值股、工業、旅遊、餐飲、休閒和娛樂接過了接力棒，而近年來飛速發展的萬億公司在投資者中失去了尊重。市場並沒有拒絕增長，而是在重新分配領導權。它在獎勵不斷增長的現金流，同時懲罰那些將現金用於未來回報的公司，這些回報受到未來市場力量的不確定性影響。明星四分衞們正在被壓制，但更廣泛的市場通過將整體估值推向歷史新高，展現了其韌性。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://execspec.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/2026-trend-of-trillion-dollar-stocks-02-2026-1024x572.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://execspec.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/2026-trend-of-trillion-dollar-stocks-02-2026-1024x572.png"/></p>
<p>電氣化走過了一條類似但更漫長的道路。公用事業在財務利益到達底線之前就已經用銅覆蓋了整個國家。托馬斯·愛迪生的願景是正確的；但他的投資時機往往不佳。基礎設施革命更獎勵耐心而非先鋒。</p>
<p>1990 年代末的電信行業提供了另一個警示的例子。光纖的鋪設彷彿帶寬短缺永無止境，但需求最終到來，推動了今天的數字經濟。為光纖建設提供資金的投資者遭受了懲罰，因為短期現金流消失，未來的利益卻來得太晚。</p>
<p>今天的超大規模公司在某種程度上描繪出了一些相似之處，但在更大和更有利可圖的舞台上，預計投資回報更快。另一個不同之處在於，各國政府正在支持本國的冠軍，以實現全球主導地位和槓桿。與人工智能相關的前五大科技巨頭的資本支出預計在今年將達到 6500 億美元，並可能超過 7000 億美元，是 2024 年的三倍。企業客户的需求是真實且不斷增長的，需要在未來幾年進行鉅額投資。超大規模公司並不等待訂單的到來，因為積壓訂單已經超額認購，並可能在可預見的未來保持如此。學習系統、推理引擎和企業採用仍處於早期階段。不建設將意味着放棄未來。</p>
<p>然而，市場的前瞻性僅限於一定程度。管理者應該在不考慮可變風險的情況下，提前多少年對公司的未來收益進行估值？投資者越來越不安，因為 50% 甚至在某些情況下超過 200% 的自由現金流被投入到人工智能基礎設施中。亞馬遜幾乎將其所有現金流用於人工智能的資本投資；Meta 將增加遠超其現金的債務來融資。將現金流融資從 10% 提升到平均 75%，以換取可能在 5 年後實現的投資回報，通常會導致較低的倍數。悖論在於，曾經因輕資產和現金豐富而受到青睞的公司正變得資本密集且現金緊張。債務填補了這一空白。風險隨之而來。</p>
<p>這就是為什麼 MAG 領導者之間的估值倍數正在壓縮，以及蘋果最近表現優於其他公司的原因，因為他們尚未動用現金進行基礎設施建設，保持了強勁的現金積累。到 2025 年底，蘋果的自由現金流將達到 990 億美元，並預計將繼續增長到 1380 億到 1930 億美元，除非他們進行一些大規模收購和人工智能建設。大額支出超大規模公司的估值倍數（市盈率）已經下降，並不是因為利潤惡化，而是因為時間表延長。市場在問與鐵路大亨、公用事業巨頭和光纖之王相同的問題：_誰獲得回報，何時獲得？_歷史表明，建設者往往被受益者超越。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://execspec.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/AI-Cap-Ex-spending-02-2026.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://execspec.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/AI-Cap-Ex-spending-02-2026.png"/></p>
<p>估值倍數壓縮是基礎設施的代價：七巨頭的前瞻市盈率在 2024-2025 年大部分時間內保持在 28-35 倍的收益水平。目前的倍數為 22-26 倍，壓縮幅度為 15-20%。這一收縮與資本支出公告的軌跡不謀而合。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://execspec.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Forward-PE-of-hyperscsalers-02-08-26.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://execspec.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Forward-PE-of-hyperscsalers-02-08-26.png"/></p>
<p>與此同時，整體經濟繼續讓悲觀者感到困惑。儘管勞動力增長有限，GDP 仍以強勁的 3% 到 4% 的速度增長。生產力在自動化和人工智能輔助流程的悄然推動下，正在彌補人口結構的不足。如果勞動參與率或技能培訓回升，增長可能會進一步加速。在這樣的環境下，股指可能會超出共識預期，推動標普 500 指數超越預計在 2026 年達到的 7,000 點中位數。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://execspec.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Nowcast-GDP-02-2026-1024x753.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://execspec.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Nowcast-GDP-02-2026-1024x753.png"/></p>
<p>但領導力至關重要。七大巨頭將會升值，但不太可能像 2022 年中至 2025 年底那樣主導市場。他們的長期前景依然強勁，但歷史教會我們，基礎設施建設者在現金流追趕雄心壯志的過程中，往往會經歷估值的低迷週期。週期的下一個階段更有利於那些短期回報更高、資產負債表更清晰、能夠將增長轉化為可支配現金而非延遲希望的商業模式的公司。波音、HCA 和聯合健康、Globus Medical、美敦力、輝瑞、Transdigm、洛克希德、投資銀行、卡特彼勒以及旅遊/休閒等公司都是一些現金流強勁且對快速擴張基礎設施支出需求較小的例子。</p>
<p>今晚，新英格蘭愛國者隊追求他們的第七個冠軍，他們的陣容體現了市場正在浮現的教訓。他們有明星球員，但他們的卓越源於深厚的陣容：多個位置的能力。他們不是支出最高的球隊，但他們有效利用了資本。</p>
<p>七大巨頭曾舒適地位於前四分之一，收益率為 4-6%，但隨着資本支出的激增，收益率已降至 1.5-2.5%。與此同時，中型工業公司的收益率為 5-7%，地區銀行為 6-8%，消費品公司為 4-6%。投資者正在重新發現一個基本原則：當前現金流的交易溢價高於承諾的未來現金流，尤其是當這些承諾需要 7000 億美元的基礎設施才能實現時。市場，就像足球王朝，最終要求證據證明投資帶來了回報，而不僅僅是承諾。當前數據表明，基礎設施的進展比企業採用提前 18-24 個月。</p>
<p>經濟受益於基礎設施支出。問題是哪些投資者受益，以及何時受益。當愛國者隊今晚走上賽場時，他們知道冠軍是通過完整的陣容贏得的，而不僅僅是通過明星球員。市場正在重新學習同樣的教訓。七大巨頭在未來幾年將繼續輝煌增長。但在接下來的 12-24 個月裏，投資者明智地記住，足球和投資最終都是團隊運動。替補席正在迎來它的時刻。是時候了。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>股票和債券慶祝經濟疲軟</p>
<p>中國的通縮困境——會傳到美國嗎？</p>
<p>勞動力市場降温？</p>

MIDE

MCOW

標普 400 中盤股 ETF - SPDR

<p>股市的關注點正從被稱為 “七大巨頭” 的科技巨頭轉向小型和中型公司，這些公司今年的漲幅達到了 6-9%。由於在人工智能基礎設施上的大量投資，科技巨頭面臨估值壓縮，其整體指數年初至今已下跌超過 3.2%。儘管整體市場顯示出韌性，估值創下歷史新高，但隨着公司在未來技術上的大量投資，現金流的可持續性引發了越來越多的擔憂。科技領頭企業的估值倍數已壓縮 15-20%，反映出投資者對長期回報的謹慎態度</p>

<h3><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=750&amp;w=1260"/></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcxZjcz10aW55c3JnYhZoPTc1MBZ3PTEyNjA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg?auto=compress%16cs=tinysrgb%16h=750%16w=1260"/></h3>
</div><p><em>Image Source: Pexels</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Pexels</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>The Magnificent Seven’s Stumble</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>七巨頭的失誤</strong></h3>
</div><p>On the day the New England Patriots pursue their seventh Lombardi Trophy, the stock market, like professional football, periodically rediscovers that no contest is won by stars alone. For much of 2023 through late 2025, American equities behaved as though this axiom had been repealed. The “Super Bowl Index” of stocks—those seven tech giants whose market capitalizations rival nations’ GDPs—dragged both indices and economic metrics higher relentlessly like a generational quarterback. The rest of the unfashionable market trailed behind on the sideline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在新英格蘭愛國者隊追求他們第七個隆巴迪獎盃的那一天，股市就像職業足球一樣，時不時地重新發現，沒有明星單靠個人能力贏得比賽。2023 年到 2025 年末的很長一段時間裏，美國股票的表現彷彿這一原則被廢除了。那些市值與國家 GDP 相當的七大科技巨頭——“超級碗指數”——像一位世代傳承的四分衞一樣，不斷將兩個指數和經濟指標推高。其餘不受歡迎的市場則在場邊落後。</p>
</div><p>That era has faded. The Magnificent Seven—magnificent in scale, profit margins, and growth—have opened this year with a stumble. After subpar performance in the previous quarter, their collective index is down more than 3.2 percent year-to-date. Meanwhile, the bench players—small and mid-cap companies, have surged ahead, advancing 6 to 9 percent already this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那個時代已經過去。七巨頭——在規模、利潤率和增長方面都非常出色——在今年開局時卻出現了失誤。在上一季度表現不佳後，他們的綜合指數年初至今下跌超過 3.2%。與此同時，替補球員——小型和中型公司，已經在今年大幅上漲，漲幅達到 6% 到 9%。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://execspec.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Mid-cap-vs-MAGS-02-08-26-1024x582.png" alt="" original-src="https://execspec.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Mid-cap-vs-MAGS-02-08-26-1024x582.png"/></p>
<p>Value stocks, industrials, travel, restaurants, leisure, and entertainment have taken the baton, while the trillion dollar companies that soared in recent years have lost respect with the investor class. The market is not rejecting growth. It is redistributing leadership. It’s rewarding rising cash flow and punishing those spending this cash on future returns subject to unknown market forces years down the road. The marquee quarterbacks are getting sacked, yet the broader market is revealing its resilience by carrying the ball downfield with overall valuations hitting record highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>價值股、工業、旅遊、餐飲、休閒和娛樂接過了接力棒，而近年來飛速發展的萬億公司在投資者中失去了尊重。市場並沒有拒絕增長，而是在重新分配領導權。它在獎勵不斷增長的現金流，同時懲罰那些將現金用於未來回報的公司，這些回報受到未來市場力量的不確定性影響。明星四分衞們正在被壓制，但更廣泛的市場通過將整體估值推向歷史新高，展現了其韌性。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://execspec.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/2026-trend-of-trillion-dollar-stocks-02-2026-1024x572.png" alt="" original-src="https://execspec.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/2026-trend-of-trillion-dollar-stocks-02-2026-1024x572.png"/></p>
<p>Electrification followed a similar, albeit elongated, path. Utilities covered the country with copper long before financial benefits hit the bottom line. Thomas Edison’s vision was correct; his timing for investors often was not. The infrastructure revolutions reward patience more than pioneers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>電氣化走過了一條類似但更漫長的道路。公用事業在財務利益到達底線之前就已經用銅覆蓋了整個國家。托馬斯·愛迪生的願景是正確的；但他的投資時機往往不佳。基礎設施革命更獎勵耐心而非先鋒。</p>
</div><p>Telecommunications in the late 1990s offers another cautionary example. Fiber was laid as if bandwidth scarcity would never end, but demand eventually arrived enabling the digital economy of today. Investors who financed the fiber build-out were penalized as near-term cash flow vanished in favor of future benefits that arrived too late for many.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1990 年代末的電信行業提供了另一個警示的例子。光纖的鋪設彷彿帶寬短缺永無止境，但需求最終到來，推動了今天的數字經濟。為光纖建設提供資金的投資者遭受了懲罰，因為短期現金流消失，未來的利益卻來得太晚。</p>
</div><p>Today’s hyperscalers are tracing out “some” similarities, however on a grander and more profitable stage with a faster return on investment expected. Another dissimilarity is that Governments are backing their domestic champions to achieve global dominance and leverage. Capital expenditures from the top 5 tech giants tied to artificial intelligence—data centers, advanced chips, power infrastructure—are expected to reach $650 billion this year and may climb north of $700 billion. Triple the spending from 2024. The enterprise customer demand is real and growing, requiring enormous investment for years to come. Hyperscalers are not waiting for orders to arrive as the backlog is oversubscribed and likely to remain so for the foreseable future. Learning systems, inference engines, and enterprise adoption are still in the early innings. To fail to build would be to cede the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的超大規模公司在某種程度上描繪出了一些相似之處，但在更大和更有利可圖的舞台上，預計投資回報更快。另一個不同之處在於，各國政府正在支持本國的冠軍，以實現全球主導地位和槓桿。與人工智能相關的前五大科技巨頭的資本支出預計在今年將達到 6500 億美元，並可能超過 7000 億美元，是 2024 年的三倍。企業客户的需求是真實且不斷增長的，需要在未來幾年進行鉅額投資。超大規模公司並不等待訂單的到來，因為積壓訂單已經超額認購，並可能在可預見的未來保持如此。學習系統、推理引擎和企業採用仍處於早期階段。不建設將意味着放棄未來。</p>
</div><p>Yet markets are forward-looking only up to a point. How many years ahead in forward earnings should managers value a company without discounting for variable risk? Investors have grown increasingly uneasy that between 50 percent and, in some cases, more than 200 percent of free cash flow is being plowed back into AI infrastructure. Amazon will spend nearly all of its cash flow on capital investments for AI; Meta will add debt far beyond its cash to finance the same. Moving from 10% cash flow financing to an average of 75% for a ROI that could be 5 years away warrants a lesser multiple in general. The paradox is that companies once prized for being asset-light and cash-rich are becoming capital-heavy and cash-constrained. Debt fills the gap. Risk follows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，市場的前瞻性僅限於一定程度。管理者應該在不考慮可變風險的情況下，提前多少年對公司的未來收益進行估值？投資者越來越不安，因為 50% 甚至在某些情況下超過 200% 的自由現金流被投入到人工智能基礎設施中。亞馬遜幾乎將其所有現金流用於人工智能的資本投資；Meta 將增加遠超其現金的債務來融資。將現金流融資從 10% 提升到平均 75%，以換取可能在 5 年後實現的投資回報，通常會導致較低的倍數。悖論在於，曾經因輕資產和現金豐富而受到青睞的公司正變得資本密集且現金緊張。債務填補了這一空白。風險隨之而來。</p>
</div><p>This is why valuation multiples are compressing among the MAG leaders and a reason why Apple has been outperforming of late as they have yet to tap their cash for an infrastructure buildout, maintaining strong cash build. Apple’s free cash flow hit $99 billion by the end of 2025 and is projected to continue growing to between $138 to $193 billion unless they make some massive acquisitions and AI build outs. Valuation multiples (P/E) among the big spender hyperscalers have receded, not because profits are deteriorating, but because timelines are extending. Markets are asking the same question they asked rail barons, utility magnates, and fiber kings: <em>Who earns the returns, and when?</em> History suggests the builders are often overtaken by the beneficiaries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是為什麼 MAG 領導者之間的估值倍數正在壓縮，以及蘋果最近表現優於其他公司的原因，因為他們尚未動用現金進行基礎設施建設，保持了強勁的現金積累。到 2025 年底，蘋果的自由現金流將達到 990 億美元，並預計將繼續增長到 1380 億到 1930 億美元，除非他們進行一些大規模收購和人工智能建設。大額支出超大規模公司的估值倍數（市盈率）已經下降，並不是因為利潤惡化，而是因為時間表延長。市場在問與鐵路大亨、公用事業巨頭和光纖之王相同的問題：_誰獲得回報，何時獲得？_歷史表明，建設者往往被受益者超越。</p>
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<p>Valuation multiple compression is the price of infrastructure: Forward P/E ratios for the Magnificent Seven tracked at 28-35x earnings through most of 2024-2025. Current multiples: 22-26x, a compression of 15-20%. Not coincidentally, this contraction mirrors the trajectory of capital expenditure announcements.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>估值倍數壓縮是基礎設施的代價：七巨頭的前瞻市盈率在 2024-2025 年大部分時間內保持在 28-35 倍的收益水平。目前的倍數為 22-26 倍，壓縮幅度為 15-20%。這一收縮與資本支出公告的軌跡不謀而合。</p>
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<p>Meanwhile, the broader economy continues to confound pessimists. GDP is growing at a robust 3 to 4 percent despite minimal labor force growth. Productivity—quietly boosted by automation and AI-assisted processes—is doing what demographics cannot. Should worker participation or skills training rebound, growth could accelerate further. In such an environment, equity indices could exceed consensus projections, pushing the S&amp;P 500 beyond the mid-7,000s expected for 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，整體經濟繼續讓悲觀者感到困惑。儘管勞動力增長有限，GDP 仍以強勁的 3% 到 4% 的速度增長。生產力在自動化和人工智能輔助流程的悄然推動下，正在彌補人口結構的不足。如果勞動參與率或技能培訓回升，增長可能會進一步加速。在這樣的環境下，股指可能會超出共識預期，推動標普 500 指數超越預計在 2026 年達到的 7,000 點中位數。</p>
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<p>But leadership matters. The Magnificent Seven will appreciate but are unlikely to dominate as they did from mid-2022 through late-2025. Their long-term outlook remains formidable, but history teaches that infrastructure builders endure a purgatory of lowered multiples while cash flow catches up to ambition. The next phase of the cycle favors companies with nearer-term returns, cleaner balance sheets, and business models that convert growth into spendable cash rather than deferred hope. Boeing, HCA &amp; United Healthcare, Globus Medical, Medtronic, Pfizer, Transdigm, Lockheed, investment banks,Caterpillar and travel/leisure are some examples that have strong cash flow with minimal need to rapidly expand infrastructure spend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但領導力至關重要。七大巨頭將會升值，但不太可能像 2022 年中至 2025 年底那樣主導市場。他們的長期前景依然強勁，但歷史教會我們，基礎設施建設者在現金流追趕雄心壯志的過程中，往往會經歷估值的低迷週期。週期的下一個階段更有利於那些短期回報更高、資產負債表更清晰、能夠將增長轉化為可支配現金而非延遲希望的商業模式的公司。波音、HCA 和聯合健康、Globus Medical、美敦力、輝瑞、Transdigm、洛克希德、投資銀行、卡特彼勒以及旅遊/休閒等公司都是一些現金流強勁且對快速擴張基礎設施支出需求較小的例子。</p>
</div><p>Tonight the New England Patriots pursue their seventh championship with a roster that exemplifies the market’s emerging lesson. They have stars, but their excellence derives from depth: competencyat many positions. They are not the highest-spending team, but they utilize their capital efficiently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今晚，新英格蘭愛國者隊追求他們的第七個冠軍，他們的陣容體現了市場正在浮現的教訓。他們有明星球員，但他們的卓越源於深厚的陣容：多個位置的能力。他們不是支出最高的球隊，但他們有效利用了資本。</p>
</div><p>The Magnificent Seven, once comfortably in the top quartile with 4-6% yields, have fallen to 1.5-2.5% as capital expenditures surge. Meanwhile, mid-cap industrials yield 5-7%, regional banks 6-8%, and consumer discretionary companies 4-6%. Investors are rediscovering a basic principle: current cash flow trades at a premium to promised future cash flow, especially when the promises require $700 billion in infrastructure to materialize. Markets, like football dynasties, eventually demand evidence that investment is yielding returns, not merely promises that it will. Current data suggests infrastructure is running 18-24 months ahead of enterprise adoption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>七大巨頭曾舒適地位於前四分之一，收益率為 4-6%，但隨着資本支出的激增，收益率已降至 1.5-2.5%。與此同時，中型工業公司的收益率為 5-7%，地區銀行為 6-8%，消費品公司為 4-6%。投資者正在重新發現一個基本原則：當前現金流的交易溢價高於承諾的未來現金流，尤其是當這些承諾需要 7000 億美元的基礎設施才能實現時。市場，就像足球王朝，最終要求證據證明投資帶來了回報，而不僅僅是承諾。當前數據表明，基礎設施的進展比企業採用提前 18-24 個月。</p>
</div><p>The economy benefits from infrastructure spending. The question is which investors benefit, and when. As the Patriots take the field tonight, they do so knowing that championships are won with complete rosters, not merely franchise stars. Markets are relearning the same lesson. The Magnificent Seven will remain magnificent with incredible growth for years to come. But for the next 12-24 months, investors would be wise to remember that football, like investing, is ultimately a team sport. The bench is having its moment. And about time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經濟受益於基礎設施支出。問題是哪些投資者受益，以及何時受益。當愛國者隊今晚走上賽場時，他們知道冠軍是通過完整的陣容贏得的，而不僅僅是通過明星球員。市場正在重新學習同樣的教訓。七大巨頭在未來幾年將繼續輝煌增長。但在接下來的 12-24 個月裏，投資者明智地記住，足球和投資最終都是團隊運動。替補席正在迎來它的時刻。是時候了。</p>
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</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Stocks And Bonds Celebrate Weaker Economy</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票和債券慶祝經濟疲軟</p>
</div><p>China’s Deflation Dilemma – Coming To The US?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國的通縮困境——會傳到美國嗎？</p>
</div><p>Labor Market Cooling?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>勞動力市場降温？</p>
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從超級明星到替補席：市場重新認識團隊運動