<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/agibank-brazil-invezz.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/agibank-brazil-invezz.jpg"/></p>
<p>巴西股票和貨幣今年處於強勁的牛市中。追蹤巴西最大公司的伊博維斯帕指數（Ibovespa Index）上漲至創紀錄的 190,000 巴西雷亞爾，較疫情低點的 95,130 巴西雷亞爾大幅上漲。今年已連續六週上漲，漲幅達到 17%。</p>
<p>與此同時，巴西雷亞爾（BRL）持續飆升，美元對巴西雷亞爾匯率降至 5.1795，為 2024 年 5 月以來的最低水平。</p>
<p>巴西政府債券表現也不錯，十年期收益率從去年的 15.5% 回落至 13.58%。</p>
<h2>伊博維斯帕指數和巴西雷亞爾因外資買入而上漲</h2>
<p>巴西股票、債券和本地貨幣處於強勁的牛市中，得益於本地和外國投資的持續積累。</p>
<p>最近的一份報告顯示，外國投資者在 1 月 1 日至 1 月 21 日期間購買了價值超過 21 億美元的巴西股票，這一數字可能已經大幅上升。</p>
<p>這一激增發生在投資者繼續購買新興市場資產的背景下，巴西提供了折扣估值倍數、流動性和更具競爭力的利率。</p>
<p>巴西股票也因投資者預測中央銀行將在即將於 3 月召開的會議上降息而飆升。幾個月以來，利率一直維持在歷史高位，大多數分析師預測在 3 月 18 日的會議上將進一步降息。一位彭博社分析師預測，儘管 1 月份通脹略有上升，但仍將降息 50 個基點至 14.50%。</p>
<p>高企的巴西利率使其成為良好的套利交易貨幣。套利交易是指投資者從低利率貨幣（如美國）借款，並投資於高利率國家（如巴西）。</p>
<p>此外，伊博維斯帕指數表現良好，因為巴西成為美國與中國之間持續衝突的主要受益者。中國繼續購買巴西的大部分產品，如玉米和大豆，最新數據顯示兩國之間的雙邊貿易額在去年躍升至創紀錄的超過 1710 億美元。</p>
<p>去年巴西對中國出口的商品價值超過 1000 億美元，而中國在同一時期向巴西出售的商品價值超過 700 億美元。這一趨勢在可預見的未來可能會繼續，因為美國和中國之間的緊張關係可能會持續。</p>
<h2>USD/BRL 技術分析</h2>
<p>周線圖顯示，美元對巴西雷亞爾的匯率在過去幾個月中處於強勁的下行趨勢。從 2024 年 12 月的 6.3065 高點暴跌至當前的 5.20。</p>
<p>該貨幣對已跌破 61.8% 的斐波那契回撤位 5.2458。該價格與 2025 年 9 月和 11 月的最低波動相一致。</p>
<p>50 周和 100 周的指數移動平均線（EMA）發生了看跌交叉，通常被稱為迷你死亡交叉。它還形成了一個頭肩形態，這是一個常見的看跌反轉信號。</p>
<p>因此，最可能的情況是該貨幣對繼續下跌，下一個關鍵目標在 5，約比當前水平低 3.40%。若突破關鍵阻力位 5.2642，將會使看跌前景失效。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/USDBRL-1024x601.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/USDBRL-1024x601.png"/></p>
<p><em>美元對巴西雷亞爾圖表 | 來源：TradingView</em></p>
<h2>伊博維斯帕指數技術分析</h2>
<p>周線圖顯示，伊博維斯帕指數在過去幾個月中處於強勁的上升趨勢。過去六週連續上漲，遠高於所有移動平均線。</p>
<p>相對強弱指數（RSI）已飆升至 85 的極度超買水平，而隨機振盪器已躍升至 90。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/ibovespa-Index-1024x601.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/ibovespa-Index-1024x601.png"/></p>
<p><em>伊博維斯帕指數圖表 | 來源：</em> <em>TradingView</em></p>
<p>因此，儘管該指數可能還有進一步上漲的空間，但存在回調的風險，可能在短期內回落至 180,000 巴西雷亞爾的心理關口。</p>
<p>本文首發於 Invezz，標題為《這就是為什麼伊博維斯帕指數和巴西雷亞爾正在飆升》</p>

LBRZ

易方達伊塔烏巴西IBOVESPAETF(QDII)

1325

RIOU

<p>巴西股票和貨幣正在經歷強勁的牛市，Ibovespa 指數達到創紀錄的 190,000 巴西雷亞爾，今年上漲了 17%。巴西雷亞爾也大幅上漲，美元/巴西雷亞爾匯率降至 5.1795。這一激增受到外國投資、預期的降息以及與中國貿易增加的推動。技術分析顯示 Ibovespa 指數可能會出現回調，而美元/巴西雷亞爾可能會繼續下跌，目標為 5.00。總體而言，市場受到有利經濟條件和投資者情緒的提振</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/agibank-brazil-invezz.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/agibank-brazil-invezz.jpg"/></p>
<p>Brazilian stocks and the currency are in a strong bull run this year. The Ibovespa Index, which tracks the biggest companies in Brazil, rose to a record high of BRL 190,000, up sharply from the pandemic-low of BRL 95,130. It has risen in the last six consecutive weeks and is up by 17% this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西股票和貨幣今年處於強勁的牛市中。追蹤巴西最大公司的伊博維斯帕指數（Ibovespa Index）上漲至創紀錄的 190,000 巴西雷亞爾，較疫情低點的 95,130 巴西雷亞爾大幅上漲。今年已連續六週上漲，漲幅達到 17%。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the Brazilian real (BRL) has continued soaring, with the USD/BRL falling to 5.1795, its lowest level since May 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，巴西雷亞爾（BRL）持續飆升，美元對巴西雷亞爾匯率降至 5.1795，為 2024 年 5 月以來的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>Brazilian government bonds are also doing well, with the ten-year yield has pulled back to 13.58% from last year’s high of 15.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西政府債券表現也不錯，十年期收益率從去年的 15.5% 回落至 13.58%。</p>
</div><h2>Ibovespa Index and Brazilian real jumps amid foreign buying</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伊博維斯帕指數和巴西雷亞爾因外資買入而上漲</h2>
</div><p>Brazilian stocks, bonds, and the local currency are in a strong bull run, helped by the ongoing accumulation by local and foreign investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西股票、債券和本地貨幣處於強勁的牛市中，得益於本地和外國投資的持續積累。</p>
</div><p>A recent report showed that foreign investors bought Brazilian stocks worth over $2.1 billion into local equities between January 1 and January 21, a figure that has likely jumped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的一份報告顯示，外國投資者在 1 月 1 日至 1 月 21 日期間購買了價值超過 21 億美元的巴西股票，這一數字可能已經大幅上升。</p>
</div><p>The surge happened as investors continued buying emerging market assets, with Brazil offering discounted valuation multiples, liquidity, and more competitive interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一激增發生在投資者繼續購買新興市場資產的背景下，巴西提供了折扣估值倍數、流動性和更具競爭力的利率。</p>
</div><p>Brazilian stocks have also soared as investors predicted that the central bank will cut interest rates in the upcoming meeting in March. It has left interest at historic highs for months, with most analysts predicting more cuts in the March 18 meeting. A Bloomberg analyst predicted that it will cut by 50 basis points to 14.50%, even after inflation rose slightly in January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西股票也因投資者預測中央銀行將在即將於 3 月召開的會議上降息而飆升。幾個月以來，利率一直維持在歷史高位，大多數分析師預測在 3 月 18 日的會議上將進一步降息。一位彭博社分析師預測，儘管 1 月份通脹略有上升，但仍將降息 50 個基點至 14.50%。</p>
</div><p>The elevated Brazilian interest rates have made it a good carry trade currency. A carry trade happens when investors borrow from a low-interest-rate currency, like the United States, and invest in a high-interest-rate country like Brazil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高企的巴西利率使其成為良好的套利交易貨幣。套利交易是指投資者從低利率貨幣（如美國）借款，並投資於高利率國家（如巴西）。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the IBOVESPA Index has done well as Brazil became a major beneficiary of the ongoing conflict between the United States and China. China has continued buying most of Brazil’s products like corn and soybeans, with the most recent data showing that the bilateral trade volume between the two countries jumped to a record high of over $171 billion last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，伊博維斯帕指數表現良好，因為巴西成為美國與中國之間持續衝突的主要受益者。中國繼續購買巴西的大部分產品，如玉米和大豆，最新數據顯示兩國之間的雙邊貿易額在去年躍升至創紀錄的超過 1710 億美元。</p>
</div><p>Brazil exported goods worth over $100 billion to China last year, while China sold goods worth over $70 billion to Brazil in the same period. This trend will likely continue in the foreseeable future as tensions between the US and China will likely continue in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年巴西對中國出口的商品價值超過 1000 億美元，而中國在同一時期向巴西出售的商品價值超過 700 億美元。這一趨勢在可預見的未來可能會繼續，因為美國和中國之間的緊張關係可能會持續。</p>
</div><h2>USD/BRL technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>USD/BRL 技術分析</h2>
</div><p>The weekly timeframe chart shows that the USD/BRL exchange rate has been in a strong downward trend in the past few months. It has crashed from a high of 6.3065 in December 2024 to the current 5.20.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周線圖顯示，美元對巴西雷亞爾的匯率在過去幾個月中處於強勁的下行趨勢。從 2024 年 12 月的 6.3065 高點暴跌至當前的 5.20。</p>
</div><p>The pair has moved below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level at 5.2458. This price aligned with the lowest swing in September 2025 and November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該貨幣對已跌破 61.8% 的斐波那契回撤位 5.2458。該價格與 2025 年 9 月和 11 月的最低波動相一致。</p>
</div><p>The 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) have made a bearish crossover, which is commonly known as a mini death cross. It also formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, a common bearish reversal sign.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>50 周和 100 周的指數移動平均線（EMA）發生了看跌交叉，通常被稱為迷你死亡交叉。它還形成了一個頭肩形態，這是一個常見的看跌反轉信號。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the pair continues falling, with the next key target being at 5, which is about 3.40% below the current level. A move above the key resistance level at 5.2642 will invalidate the bearish outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，最可能的情況是該貨幣對繼續下跌，下一個關鍵目標在 5，約比當前水平低 3.40%。若突破關鍵阻力位 5.2642，將會使看跌前景失效。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/USDBRL-1024x601.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/USDBRL-1024x601.png"/></p>
<p><em>USD/BRL chart | Source: TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>美元對巴西雷亞爾圖表 | 來源：TradingView</em></p>
</div><h2>Ibovespa Index technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伊博維斯帕指數技術分析</h2>
</div><p>The weekly timeframe chart shows that the Ibovespa Index has been in a strong uptrend in the past few months. It has jumped in the past six consecutive weeks and is much higher than all moving averages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周線圖顯示，伊博維斯帕指數在過去幾個月中處於強勁的上升趨勢。過去六週連續上漲，遠高於所有移動平均線。</p>
</div><p>The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has jumped to the extreme overbought level of 85, while the Stochastic Oscillator has jumped to 90.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相對強弱指數（RSI）已飆升至 85 的極度超買水平，而隨機振盪器已躍升至 90。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/ibovespa-Index-1024x601.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/ibovespa-Index-1024x601.png"/></p>
<p><em>Ibovespa Index chart | Source:</em> <em>TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>伊博維斯帕指數圖表 | 來源：</em> <em>TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>Therefore, while the index may have some more upside, there is a risk that it will pull back, potentially to the psychological level at BRL 180,000 in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，儘管該指數可能還有進一步上漲的空間，但存在回調的風險，可能在短期內回落至 180,000 巴西雷亞爾的心理關口。</p>
</div><p>The post Here’s why the Ibovespa Index and Brazilian real are soaring appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文首發於 Invezz，標題為《這就是為什麼伊博維斯帕指數和巴西雷亞爾正在飆升》</p>
</div>

以下是 Ibovespa 指數和巴西雷亞爾為何飆升的原因