<ul>
<li>天然氣期貨在週三下跌，因為交易者預計整個二月將有温暖天氣。</li>
<li>冬季供暖季節即將結束，給價格帶來下行壓力。</li>
<li>天然氣價格的技術走勢指向更多潛在的下行空間。</li>
</ul>
<h2><strong>天然氣價格因温暖天氣預期而下跌</strong></h2>
<p>天然氣期貨（/NGH6）在 2 月 18 日週三的下午交易中幾乎沒有變化。當天早些時候，價格跌至 2.922 的日內低點。這使得價格達到了自 1 月 20 日以來的最低水平，自 1 月高點以來下跌超過 30%。</p>
<p>隨着温暖的天氣覆蓋了中西部和東海岸的大部分地區，天然氣交易者正在出售天然氣，這些地區的需求集中。預計高温將持續到本月剩餘時間，並擴展到美國南部和西部。</p>
<p>未來幾周的温暖天氣可能會逆轉我們最近看到的庫存減少。在上週四發佈的能源信息署最新報告中，我們看到庫存減少了 249 億立方英尺（Bcf）。這使得庫存水平低於五年平均水平的 2344 Bcf。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt40263f25ec36953f/bltfca24d1ac493c6f7/699635182ed19a0008bc0dd7/Screenshot_2026-02-18_at_11.12.37.png/query-YXV0bz13ZWJwJmRpc2FibGU9dXBzY2FsZSZmb3JtYXQ9cGpwZyZxdWFsaXR5PTUwJndpZHRoPTEwMDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt40263f25ec36953f/bltfca24d1ac493c6f7/699635182ed19a0008bc0dd7/Screenshot_2026-02-18_at_11.12.37.png/query-YXV0bz13ZWJwJmRpc2FibGU9dXBzY2FsZSZmb3JtYXQ9cGpwZyZxdWFsaXR5PTUwJndpZHRoPTEwMDA"/></p>
<p>前一週（截至 1 月 30 日的一週），我們看到庫存減少了更大的 360 Bcf，這是有記錄以來的最大減少。我們在前兩週看到的大量庫存減少可能會逆轉。市場已經反映出這一點。</p>
<p>因此，現在我們必須嘗試預測天然氣市場接下來可能走向何方。但天然氣庫存再進行大規模減少的時間已經不多。減少庫存的季節通常在四月開始時結束，因為温和的氣温降低了供暖需求。</p>
<p>也就是説，我們需要一個晚季的寒潮，而且可能是一個嚴重的寒潮，因為庫存無疑會放緩，甚至可能在接下來的幾周內增加。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.tastylive.com/news-insights/undefined/query-YXV0bz13ZWJwJmRpc2FibGU9dXBzY2FsZSZmb3JtYXQ9cGpwZyZxdWFsaXR5PTUwJndpZHRoPTEwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.tastylive.com/news-insights/undefined/query-YXV0bz13ZWJwJmRpc2FibGU9dXBzY2FsZSZmb3JtYXQ9cGpwZyZxdWFsaXR5PTUwJndpZHRoPTEwMA"/></p>
<h2><strong>天然氣技術展望</strong></h2>
<p>天然氣價格隨着下行趨勢的指數移動平均線（EMA）而下跌，特別是 9 日 EMA。週二，12 月的低點 3.007 的支撐被突破，移除了空頭的潛在障礙。1 月的低點 2.578 在昨天的交易中突破了 3 的心理關口後成為關注焦點。技術反彈可能會受到 EMA 的阻力，但短期內可能需要基本面的變化來維持任何技術動能。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt40263f25ec36953f/blt545e8a6129a2e2eb/699634de676f8800085bf9f7/Screenshot_2026-02-18_at_15.53.04.png/query-YXV0bz13ZWJwJmRpc2FibGU9dXBzY2FsZSZmb3JtYXQ9cGpwZyZxdWFsaXR5PTUwJndpZHRoPTEwMDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt40263f25ec36953f/blt545e8a6129a2e2eb/699634de676f8800085bf9f7/Screenshot_2026-02-18_at_15.53.04.png/query-YXV0bz13ZWJwJmRpc2FibGU9dXBzY2FsZSZmb3JtYXQ9cGpwZyZxdWFsaXR5PTUwJndpZHRoPTEwMDA"/></p>

景順長城國證石油天然氣ETF

陝天然氣

皖天然氣

<p>天然氣期貨面臨賣壓，因為預計温暖天氣將持續到二月份，導致價格下跌。2 月 18 日，價格跌至日內低點 2.922，自一月份以來下降了 30%。温暖的氣温可能會逆轉近期的庫存減少，庫存水平降至五年平均水平以下。市場預計隨着供暖季節的結束，庫存減少將放緩，而需要一場顯著的寒潮來維持需求。技術指標顯示天然氣價格還有進一步下跌的潛力</p>

<ul>
<li>Natural gas futures dropped on Wednesday as traders expect warm weather throughout the rest of February.</li>
<li>Winter heating season is ending, putting downward pressure on prices.</li>
<li>Technical posture for natural gas prices points to more potential downside.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>天然氣期貨在週三下跌，因為交易者預計整個二月將有温暖天氣。</li>
<li>冬季供暖季節即將結束，給價格帶來下行壓力。</li>
<li>天然氣價格的技術走勢指向更多潛在的下行空間。</li>
</ul>
</div><h2><strong>Natural gas prices drop as warm weather outlook weighs on sentiment</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>天然氣價格因温暖天氣預期而下跌</strong></h2>
</div><p>Natural gas futures (/NGH6) were nearly unchanged through afternoon trading on Wednesday, February 18. Earlier in the day, prices fell to an intraday low of 2.922. That put prices at the lowest level since January 20, and down over 30% since their January high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>天然氣期貨（/NGH6）在 2 月 18 日週三的下午交易中幾乎沒有變化。當天早些時候，價格跌至 2.922 的日內低點。這使得價格達到了自 1 月 20 日以來的最低水平，自 1 月高點以來下跌超過 30%。</p>
</div><p>Traders are selling natural gas as warmer-than-average weather blankets much of the Midwest and East Coast, where demand for the commodity is concentrated. The high temperatures are expected to continue through the rest of the month and expand into the Southern and Western United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着温暖的天氣覆蓋了中西部和東海岸的大部分地區，天然氣交易者正在出售天然氣，這些地區的需求集中。預計高温將持續到本月剩餘時間，並擴展到美國南部和西部。</p>
</div><p>The resulting warm weather over the next several weeks will likely reverse the inventory withdrawals we’ve seen recently. We saw a 249 billion cubic foot (Bcf) withdrawal from inventory in the Energy Information Administration’s latest report released last Thursday. That brought stock levels below the five-year average of 2,344 Bcf.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>未來幾周的温暖天氣可能會逆轉我們最近看到的庫存減少。在上週四發佈的能源信息署最新報告中，我們看到庫存減少了 249 億立方英尺（Bcf）。這使得庫存水平低於五年平均水平的 2344 Bcf。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt40263f25ec36953f/bltfca24d1ac493c6f7/699635182ed19a0008bc0dd7/Screenshot_2026-02-18_at_11.12.37.png/query-YXV0bz13ZWJwJmRpc2FibGU9dXBzY2FsZSZmb3JtYXQ9cGpwZyZxdWFsaXR5PTUwJndpZHRoPTEwMDA" alt="" original-src="https://images.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt40263f25ec36953f/bltfca24d1ac493c6f7/699635182ed19a0008bc0dd7/Screenshot_2026-02-18_at_11.12.37.png?format=pjpg&amp;auto=webp&amp;quality=50&amp;width=1000&amp;disable=upscale"/></p>
<p>The week before (for the week ending January 30), we saw an even bigger 360 Bcf withdrawal, which was the largest on record. The large inventory draws we’ve seen over the preceding two weeks are likely to reverse course. The market is already reflecting that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前一週（截至 1 月 30 日的一週），我們看到庫存減少了更大的 360 Bcf，這是有記錄以來的最大減少。我們在前兩週看到的大量庫存減少可能會逆轉。市場已經反映出這一點。</p>
</div><p>So, now we must try to predict where the natural gas market can go next. But time is running out for another large withdrawal in natural gas inventories. The withdrawal season typically ends once April starts, when milder temperatures reduce heating demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，現在我們必須嘗試預測天然氣市場接下來可能走向何方。但天然氣庫存再進行大規模減少的時間已經不多。減少庫存的季節通常在四月開始時結束，因為温和的氣温降低了供暖需求。</p>
</div><p>That said, we’ll need a late season cold snap, and likely one that is severe, because inventories will undoubtedly slow and may even build over the coming weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是説，我們需要一個晚季的寒潮，而且可能是一個嚴重的寒潮，因為庫存無疑會放緩，甚至可能在接下來的幾周內增加。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.tastylive.com/news-insights/undefined/query-YXV0bz13ZWJwJmRpc2FibGU9dXBzY2FsZSZmb3JtYXQ9cGpwZyZxdWFsaXR5PTUwJndpZHRoPTEwMA" alt="" original-src="https://www.tastylive.com/news-insights/undefined?format=pjpg&amp;auto=webp&amp;quality=50&amp;width=100&amp;disable=upscale"/></p>
<h2><strong>Natural gas technical outlook</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>天然氣技術展望</strong></h2>
</div><p>Natural gas prices have moved lower alongside downward trending exponential moving averages (EMAs), particularly the 9-day EMA. Support from the December swing low at 3.007 gave way on Tuesday, removing a potential barrier for bears. The January swing low 2.578 is in focus after the 3 psychological level was breached in yesterday’s session as well. A technical bounce may face resistance from the EMAs, but a fundamental shift is likely required over the short term to sustain any technical momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>天然氣價格隨着下行趨勢的指數移動平均線（EMA）而下跌，特別是 9 日 EMA。週二，12 月的低點 3.007 的支撐被突破，移除了空頭的潛在障礙。1 月的低點 2.578 在昨天的交易中突破了 3 的心理關口後成為關注焦點。技術反彈可能會受到 EMA 的阻力，但短期內可能需要基本面的變化來維持任何技術動能。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt40263f25ec36953f/blt545e8a6129a2e2eb/699634de676f8800085bf9f7/Screenshot_2026-02-18_at_15.53.04.png/query-YXV0bz13ZWJwJmRpc2FibGU9dXBzY2FsZSZmb3JtYXQ9cGpwZyZxdWFsaXR5PTUwJndpZHRoPTEwMDA" alt="" original-src="https://images.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt40263f25ec36953f/blt545e8a6129a2e2eb/699634de676f8800085bf9f7/Screenshot_2026-02-18_at_15.53.04.png?format=pjpg&amp;auto=webp&amp;quality=50&amp;width=1000&amp;disable=upscale"/></p>

隨着氣温上升，天然氣價格面臨更大的拋售壓力