<div id="readability-page-1"><div>BEIJING - The International Monetary Fund faulted China’s economic policies for causing waste at home and damage abroad and called for a reorientation by Beijing to embrace a model based on domestic consumer spending.“Transitioning to a consumption-led growth model should be the overarching priority,” the IMF’s executive directors said in a statement on Feb 18, released alongside its annual review of China’s economy.In that review, IMF staff highlighted China’s large current-account surplus, which has featured “adverse spillovers to trading partners.” Some of that excess stems from exports getting a boost from “real depreciation of the RMB,” the fund said, referring to the inflation-adjusted weakening of the renminbi, also known as the yuan.Some of the IMF’s language matched long-standing criticisms of the United States – across multiple administrations – and other developed nations. Its spillover warning also echoed a November assessment by Goldman Sachs economists, who said China’s expanding export capacity meant a net negative for the rest of the global economy.China’s representative on the IMF’s executive board, Zhang Zhengxin, took issue with the criticism, saying in a separate statement that China’s 2025 export growth “was primarily driven by its competitiveness and innovation capacity,” along with front-loading caused by Washington’s trade policy.The executive board as a whole, however, called for a major shift in China’s policy framework, making its argument just weeks before the annual gathering of the nation’s National People’s Congress – where specific economic targets will be released for 2026. The release also came amid China’s weeklong Lunar New Year holiday.“Reorienting China’s growth model requires significant cultural and economic policy transformation,” the IMF directors said. They “called for a comprehensive and more forceful response that combines increased macroeconomic policy support with structural reforms.”Along with “more expansionary” measures including fiscal stimulus, the directors said that central government funding to deal with the overhang of unfinished properties in China’s crippled property market “would rebuild consumer confidence.”After gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5 per cent in 2025 – a figure that met Beijing’s official target – the IMF sees the expansion slowing to 4.5 per cent in 2026. Many economists anticipate China will in March set its 2026 growth target in a 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent range.The IMF’s annual report used the term “external imbalances” more than 10 times, compared with no such mentions in the 2024 edition. The fund estimated China’s current account surplus at 3.3 per cent of GDP for 2025 – more than double the 1.5 per cent it had projected in its 2024 annual report. Mr Zhang said the fund’s figure “appeared excessively large.”Even so, according to Bloomberg calculations based on preliminary data released last week, the surplus hit 3.7 per cent of GDP in 2025, driven by the record US$1.2 trillion (S$1.5 trillion) excess of exported goods over imported ones. Goldman economists have projected China’s surplus to reach almost 1 per cent of global GDP within as few as three years, the biggest “of any country in recorded history.”The fund forecasts the surplus will narrow over the medium term, to 2.2 per cent of China’s GDP in 2030 – still well above an estimated “norm” of 0.9 per cent. The IMF suggested that a weaker yuan, measured in trade-weighted, inflation adjusted terms, had given Chinese goods an advantage overseas, while imports languished amid subdued domestic demand. Staff estimated the yuan was around 16 per cent undervalued, with its range stretching from 12.1 per cent to 20.7 per cent.IMF executive directors called for “greater exchange rate flexibility.” China’s Mr Zhang said Beijing’s currency policy is “clear and consistent,” relying on market forces to play “a decisive role.”China also took issue with IMF staff estimates of the scale and wastefulness of Beijing’s industrial policies. The fund calculated that the fiscal cost of government measures for priority sectors amounted to about 4 per cent of GDP as of 2023. While “international comparison is difficult,” the fund noted that European Union state aid in 2022 was less than half that figure, at about 1.5 per cent.Staff said that scaling back “unwarranted” industrial policy measures by about 2 per cent of GDP over the medium term would boost productivity, reduce mis-allocation of resources and cut fiscal costs.The fund highlighted that almost a third of growth in 2025 was from net exports. That reliance has “triggered overcapacity concerns, which ultimately can motivate trade actions from partners and put China’s exports at risk,” the report said.The IMF also expressed serious concern about the continued drop in prices in China and its damage to the economy, with the words “deflation” or “deflationary” appearing more than 60 times in the report.“Empirical evidence suggests that deflationary pressures are in part related to the demand slump, including from the protracted property sector correction,” the IMF said, also highlighting large local government debt loads that limit their ability to stimulate demand.The fund estimated government debt continued to soar in 2025, totaling almost 127 per cent of GDP – an increase of about 10 percentage points from 2024. That’s forecast to climb to more than 135 per cent in 2026 and continue rising through 2034. BLOOMBERG</div></div>

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2 倍做多滬深 300 ETF - Direxion

國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）批評中國的經濟政策導致國內浪費和國際損害，呼籲轉向以消費為主導的增長模式。報告強調了中國巨大的經常賬户盈餘及其對貿易伙伴的不利影響。IMF 呼籲進行重大政策變革，包括財政刺激和結構性改革，以重建消費者信心。它預測 2025 年 GDP 增長將從 5% 放緩至 2026 年的 4.5%，並對通貨緊縮和對淨出口的依賴表示擔憂。中國代表對 IMF 的估計表示異議，強調競爭力和創新是增長的驅動力

IMF warns China’s economic policies causing waste at home, damage abroad

- 國際貨幣基金組織批評中國經濟政策導致內部浪費及外部影響。  
- IMF 呼籲中國轉向以消費為主導的增長模式，預計 2026 年 GDP 增速放緩至 4.5%。  
- 政府債務在 2025 年預計達到 127% GDP，持續上升加劇需求疲軟。

國際貨幣基金組織警告稱，中國的經濟政策正在國內造成浪費，並在國際上帶來損害