<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Dusk-at-a-bustling-energy-port.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Dusk-at-a-bustling-energy-port.png"/></p>
<p>根據最新的 ING 集團報告，來自伊朗重新軍事行動的地緣政治風險增加，嚴重影響了新興市場（EM）信用，導致更廣泛的風險規避環境和能源價格飆升。</p>
<p>報告稱，海灣合作委員會（GCC）主權國家正面臨來自地區不穩定加劇的壓力。</p>
<p>最近的中東事件顯著推高了能源價格，布倫特原油價格從 2 月中旬的 70 美元以下和 12 月底的 60 美元上漲至每桶 85 美元以上。</p>
<h2>能源價格飆升使新興市場出口國和進口國分化</h2>
<p>這種分化對新興市場主權國家產生了影響，特別是大型能源進口國，可能面臨更高的通貨膨脹和惡化的外部平衡。</p>
<p>中東歐國家——包括北馬其頓、塞爾維亞、匈牙利和土耳其——是其中暴露較大的國家。</p>
<p>同樣，非洲前沿國家如贊比亞和塞內加爾，以及拉丁美洲經濟體如巴拿馬和薩爾瓦多也在此列。</p>
<p>由於能源赤字較大，巴基斯坦也屬於這一類別。</p>
<p>根據 ING 集團新興市場主權策略師詹姆斯·威爾遜在最近的報告中所述，這些國家對能源價格和供應條件的變化特別脆弱。</p>
<p>“當然，這種動態的另一面是，石油出口國通常應該從價格飆升中受益，” 威爾遜説。</p>
<p>阿曼、科威特和卡塔爾通常擁有超過其 GDP 30% 的顯著淨燃料盈餘。</p>
<p>然而，這些國家在該地區固有的潛在安全風險可能會抵消因油價上漲而帶來的經濟優勢。</p>
<p>因此，威爾遜補充道，投資者可能會將位於直接區域之外的石油出口國視為油價上漲的潛在受益者。</p>
<p>這些國家包括安哥拉、加蓬和尼日利亞等非洲國家，以及中亞的哈薩克斯坦。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708339.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708339.png"/></p>
<p>來源：ING 研究</p>
<h2>GCC 地區影響各異；情緒減弱</h2>
<p>在 GCC 國家集團中，油價與主權風險溢價之間的典型相關性最近減弱。</p>
<p>儘管油價飆升，GCC 主權利差相對於投資級同行的利差卻有所擴大，報告指出。</p>
<p>這種分化發生在地區緊張局勢的背景下，包括伊朗對 GCC 軍事基地和石油/煉油設施的報復行動，這也引發了對油輪交通安全的擔憂，從而影響出口路線。</p>
<p>這種影響在 GCC 內部並不均勻。由於資產負債表較弱和基本面惡化，巴林是最脆弱的信用國家，與阿曼的改善狀況和去年恢復投資級評級形成鮮明對比。</p>
<p>阿曼是該地區最公開中立的國家，儘管面臨無人機攻擊，但仍呼籲降級。</p>
<p>威爾遜指出，與嚴重依賴霍爾木茲海出口液化天然氣的卡塔爾相比，阿曼似乎對霍爾木茲海的出口依賴較小。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708372.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708372.png"/></p>
<p>來源：ING 研究</p>
<p>與此同時，阿聯酋面臨重大經濟後果，主要通過對其關鍵行業的干擾：旅遊、旅行和過境。</p>
<p>這些挑戰因該國被移出摩根大通的 EMBI 債券指數而加劇，導致其硬幣債券面臨困難時期。</p>
<p>然而，這一移除基本上是由於阿聯酋 “畢業” 出新興市場地位。</p>
<p>沙特阿拉伯的主要風險是其能源基礎設施的干擾；然而，威爾遜指出，該國部分緩解了這一風險，因為通過紅海有潛在的替代出口路線。</p>
<h2>風險規避情緒可能逆轉新興市場情緒改善</h2>
<p>全球範圍內，強勢美元、更高收益率和風險規避情緒正在挑戰新興市場信用市場。</p>
<p>儘管影響取決於軍事行動的持續時間和嚴重性，但這些發展發生在去年新興市場投資者情緒改善的一年之後。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708417.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708417.png"/></p>
<p>來源：ING 研究</p>
<p>“自去年 ‘解放日’ 以來，我們已經看到新興市場資產的廣泛流入，包括在年初各地區新興市場債務中的強勁投資組合，” 威爾遜補充道。</p>
<p>初級發行的強勁勢頭最近顯然放緩。</p>
<p>此外，如果年初對該資產類別的初步積極共識發生變化，流入新興市場的更持久逆轉仍然是一個風險。</p>
<p>報告指出，新興市場信用的廣泛收緊使利差水平接近歷史低點，顯著低於最新波動之前所有評級類別的長期平均水平。</p>
<p>儘管最近的拋售相對有序，但根據威爾遜的説法，這只是長期前景中的小幅波動。</p>
<p>如果衝突升級且全球干擾持續，我們預計利差將從當前水平進一步擴大。</p>
<p>具體而言，較高貝塔值的前沿名稱的單 B 利差可能面臨顯著風險，他補充道。</p>
<p>伊朗緊張局勢後，油價飆升動搖了新興市場信用，首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>

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<p>由於伊朗重新軍事行動帶來的地緣政治風險增加，ING 集團報告稱，這對新興市場（EM）信用產生了負面影響。能源價格飆升，布倫特原油價格超過每桶 85 美元，導致新興市場出口國和進口國之間出現分歧，使大型進口國面臨更高的通貨膨脹。北馬其頓、土耳其和贊比亞等國尤其脆弱。雖然石油出口國可能受益，但地區安全風險可能抵消這些收益。總體而言，風險規避情緒和強勢美元對新興市場信用市場構成挑戰，扭轉了近期的積極趨勢</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Dusk-at-a-bustling-energy-port.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Dusk-at-a-bustling-energy-port.png"/></p>
<p>Increased geopolitical risk, stemming from renewed military action in Iran, has severely impacted emerging market (EM) credit due to a broader risk-off environment and a spike in energy prices, according to a latest ING Group report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據最新的 ING 集團報告，來自伊朗重新軍事行動的地緣政治風險增加，嚴重影響了新興市場（EM）信用，導致更廣泛的風險規避環境和能源價格飆升。</p>
</div><p>Specifically, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) sovereigns are experiencing pressure from the heightened regional instability, the report claimed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告稱，海灣合作委員會（GCC）主權國家正面臨來自地區不穩定加劇的壓力。</p>
</div><p>Recent Middle East events have significantly spiked energy prices, with Brent crude rising above $85 per barrel from below $70 in mid-February and $60 in late December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的中東事件顯著推高了能源價格，布倫特原油價格從 2 月中旬的 70 美元以下和 12 月底的 60 美元上漲至每桶 85 美元以上。</p>
</div><h2>Energy price spike divides EM exporters and importers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>能源價格飆升使新興市場出口國和進口國分化</h2>
</div><p>This divergence has implications for emerging market sovereigns, particularly large energy importers that are likely to face higher inflation and deteriorating external balances.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種分化對新興市場主權國家產生了影響，特別是大型能源進口國，可能面臨更高的通貨膨脹和惡化的外部平衡。</p>
</div><p>Countries in Central and Eastern Europe — including North Macedonia, Serbia, Hungary, and Turkey — are among those with significant exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中東歐國家——包括北馬其頓、塞爾維亞、匈牙利和土耳其——是其中暴露較大的國家。</p>
</div><p>The same applies to African frontier sovereigns such as Zambia and Senegal, as well as Latin American economies including Panama and El Salvador.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同樣，非洲前沿國家如贊比亞和塞內加爾，以及拉丁美洲經濟體如巴拿馬和薩爾瓦多也在此列。</p>
</div><p>Pakistan also falls into this category due to its large energy deficit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於能源赤字較大，巴基斯坦也屬於這一類別。</p>
</div><p>These countries are particularly vulnerable to shifts in energy prices and supply conditions, according to James Wilson, emerging market sovereign strategist at ING Group, in a recent report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 ING 集團新興市場主權策略師詹姆斯·威爾遜在最近的報告中所述，這些國家對能源價格和供應條件的變化特別脆弱。</p>
</div><p>“The flip side of this dynamic, of course, is that oil exporters generally should benefit from the spike in prices,” Wilson said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“當然，這種動態的另一面是，石油出口國通常應該從價格飆升中受益，” 威爾遜説。</p>
</div><p>Oman, Kuwait, and Qatar generally possess a significant net fuel surplus, exceeding 30% of their GDP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿曼、科威特和卡塔爾通常擁有超過其 GDP 30% 的顯著淨燃料盈餘。</p>
</div><p>However, the potential security risks inherent in the region for these nations are likely to negate the economic advantages derived from higher oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這些國家在該地區固有的潛在安全風險可能會抵消因油價上漲而帶來的經濟優勢。</p>
</div><p>As a result, investors are likely to view oil exporters outside the immediate region as potential beneficiaries of higher oil prices, Wilson added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，威爾遜補充道，投資者可能會將位於直接區域之外的石油出口國視為油價上漲的潛在受益者。</p>
</div><p>These include African nations such as Angola, Gabon, and Nigeria, as well as Kazakhstan in Central Asia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些國家包括安哥拉、加蓬和尼日利亞等非洲國家，以及中亞的哈薩克斯坦。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708339.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708339.png"/></p>
<p>Source: ING Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：ING 研究</p>
</div><h2>GCC regional impact varies; sentiment weakens</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>GCC 地區影響各異；情緒減弱</h2>
</div><p>In the GCC country group, the typical correlation between oil prices and sovereign risk premium has recently weakened.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 GCC 國家集團中，油價與主權風險溢價之間的典型相關性最近減弱。</p>
</div><p>Despite the surge in oil prices, GCC sovereign spreads have widened relative to Investment Grade peers, according to the report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管油價飆升，GCC 主權利差相對於投資級同行的利差卻有所擴大，報告指出。</p>
</div><p>This divergence is occurring against a backdrop of regional tensions, including Iran’s retaliatory actions against military bases and oil/refinery facilities across the GCC, which also raise concerns about the safety of tanker traffic and, consequently, export routes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種分化發生在地區緊張局勢的背景下，包括伊朗對 GCC 軍事基地和石油/煉油設施的報復行動，這也引發了對油輪交通安全的擔憂，從而影響出口路線。</p>
</div><p>The impact is not uniform across the GCC. Bahrain is the most credit-vulnerable due to a much weaker balance sheet and deteriorating fundamentals, contrasting sharply with Oman's improved position and return to investment-grade rating last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種影響在 GCC 內部並不均勻。由於資產負債表較弱和基本面惡化，巴林是最脆弱的信用國家，與阿曼的改善狀況和去年恢復投資級評級形成鮮明對比。</p>
</div><p>Oman is the region's most openly neutral country, calling for de-escalation despite facing drone attacks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿曼是該地區最公開中立的國家，儘管面臨無人機攻擊，但仍呼籲降級。</p>
</div><p>It seems less reliant on the Strait of Hormuz for exports than Qatar, which depends heavily on the Strait for LNG, Wilson noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>威爾遜指出，與嚴重依賴霍爾木茲海出口液化天然氣的卡塔爾相比，阿曼似乎對霍爾木茲海的出口依賴較小。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708372.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708372.png"/></p>
<p>Source: ING Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：ING 研究</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the UAE is facing significant economic consequences, primarily through disruptions to its key sectors: tourism, travel, and transit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，阿聯酋面臨重大經濟後果，主要通過對其關鍵行業的干擾：旅遊、旅行和過境。</p>
</div><p>These challenges are compounded by a difficult period for its hard currency bonds, stemming from the nation's removal from JP Morgan's EMBI bond indices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些挑戰因該國被移出摩根大通的 EMBI 債券指數而加劇，導致其硬幣債券面臨困難時期。</p>
</div><p>This removal, however, is essentially due to the UAE &#34;graduating&#34; from emerging market status.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這一移除基本上是由於阿聯酋 “畢業” 出新興市場地位。</p>
</div><p>The primary risk for Saudi Arabia is disruption to its energy infrastructure; however, the country is partially mitigated by the availability of potential alternative export routes through the Red Sea, Wilson noted</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沙特阿拉伯的主要風險是其能源基礎設施的干擾；然而，威爾遜指出，該國部分緩解了這一風險，因為通過紅海有潛在的替代出口路線。</p>
</div><h2>Risk-off sentiment could reverse EM mood improvement</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>風險規避情緒可能逆轉新興市場情緒改善</h2>
</div><p>Globally, the strong dollar, higher yields, and risk-off sentiment are challenging EM credit markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球範圍內，強勢美元、更高收益率和風險規避情緒正在挑戰新興市場信用市場。</p>
</div><p>While the impact depends on the military action's length and severity, these developments follow a year of improved investor sentiment toward EM.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管影響取決於軍事行動的持續時間和嚴重性，但這些發展發生在去年新興市場投資者情緒改善的一年之後。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708417.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772708417.png"/></p>
<p>Source: ING Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：ING 研究</p>
</div><p>“We have seen broad-based inflows into EM assets since ‘Liberation Day’ last year, including strong portfolios generally into EM debt across regions to start the year,” Wilson added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“自去年 ‘解放日’ 以來，我們已經看到新興市場資產的廣泛流入，包括在年初各地區新興市場債務中的強勁投資組合，” 威爾遜補充道。</p>
</div><p>The strong momentum in primary issuance has understandably slowed recently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>初級發行的強勁勢頭最近顯然放緩。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, a more lasting reversal of these inflows into EM remains a risk, particularly if the initial positive consensus surrounding the asset class seen at the start of the year shifts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，如果年初對該資產類別的初步積極共識發生變化，流入新興市場的更持久逆轉仍然是一個風險。</p>
</div><p>The broad tightening for EM credit has driven spread levels near all-time lows, significantly tighter than long-term averages across all rating categories before the latest volatility, according to the report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告指出，新興市場信用的廣泛收緊使利差水平接近歷史低點，顯著低於最新波動之前所有評級類別的長期平均水平。</p>
</div><p>Although the recent sell-off has been relatively orderly, it is only a minor fluctuation in the long-term outlook, according to Wilson.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管最近的拋售相對有序，但根據威爾遜的説法，這只是長期前景中的小幅波動。</p>
</div><p>Should the conflict escalate and global disruption continue, we anticipate a wider decompression of spreads from current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果衝突升級且全球干擾持續，我們預計利差將從當前水平進一步擴大。</p>
</div><p>Specifically, single-B spreads on higher-beta, frontier names could face significant risk, he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>具體而言，較高貝塔值的前沿名稱的單 B 利差可能面臨顯著風險，他補充道。</p>
</div><p>The post Iran tensions, oil price spike rattle Emerging Market credit appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗緊張局勢後，油價飆升動搖了新興市場信用，首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

伊朗的緊張局勢和油價的飆升擾亂了新興市場的信貸