<p>高盛預計 2 月份 CPI 將顯示核心通脹放緩，因為汽車和住房成本趨於平穩。</p><p>數據將於 2026 年 3 月 11 日美國東部時間 0830 發佈。</p><p>摘要：</p><ul><li>高盛預計 2 月份核心 CPI 環比上漲 0.17%，低於 0.2% 的市場共識。</li><li>這一預測意味着年同比核心通脹為 2.42%，低於 2.5% 的共識。</li><li>預計整體 CPI 環比上漲 0.18%，同樣低於預期。</li><li>二手車價格和汽車保險的下降預計將有助於緩解通脹壓力。</li><li>住房通脹預計將進一步放緩，而關税可能會推動某些類別的價格上漲。</li></ul><p>高盛預計美國 2 月份通脹將出現降温跡象，多個關鍵類別的價格壓力減輕可能使整體 CPI 讀數略低於市場預期。</p><p>在即將發佈的通脹報告預覽中，該行預測核心 CPI 環比上漲 0.17%，低於 0.2% 的共識估計。按年計算，這將使核心通脹約為 2.42%，同樣低於 2.5% 的共識預測。</p><p>預計整體 CPI 環比將上漲 0.18%，反映出食品和能源價格的温和上漲。</p><p>高盛表示，多個類別的趨勢應有助於降低 CPI 讀數。該行預計與汽車相關的通脹將放緩，二手車價格預計下降 0.5%，汽車保險下降 0.3%。</p><p>機票價格預計在年初強勁上漲後將趨於穩定。高盛預測 2 月份機票價格將保持不變，此前 1 月份上漲了 6.5%，並引用了來自替代定價數據的信號。</p><p>另一個值得關注的關鍵領域是住房通脹，近年來它是美國價格壓力的最大貢獻者之一。高盛預計租金和業主等價租金將放緩，預測每個組成部分的月度增長約為 0.22%，這表明基礎住房通脹將繼續放緩。</p><p>然而，該行指出，貿易政策可能開始引入新的通脹壓力。預計關税將對某些商品類別施加温和的上行壓力，特別是那些更容易受到進口成本影響的休閒行業。高盛估計，關税可能會使通脹讀數增加約 0.05 個百分點。</p><p>該行還表示，其 CPI 預測與核心 PCE 通脹的 0.24% 月度增長大致一致，這是美聯儲首選的價格衡量標準。</p><p>2 月份 CPI 報告將受到市場的密切關注，因為投資者評估美國通脹的走勢以及美聯儲政策的可能路徑。通脹降温的證據可能會強化市場對美聯儲在進一步政策收緊方面保持謹慎態度的預期。</p><p>---</p><p>其他預測，由《華爾街日報》的 Nick Timiraos 總結：</p>

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<p>高盛預計核心通脹將在 2 月份逐漸緩解，預測核心消費者價格指數（CPI）環比上漲 0.17%，低於 0.2% 的市場共識，導致同比核心通脹為 2.42%。整體 CPI 預計將上漲 0.18%。導致這種緩和的因素包括二手車價格下降和機票成本穩定，而關税可能對某些商品施加上行壓力。即將發佈的 CPI 報告對於評估美國通脹趨勢和潛在的美聯儲政策調整至關重要</p>

<p>Goldman Sachs expects February CPI to show easing core inflation as autos and shelter moderate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛預計 2 月份 CPI 將顯示核心通脹放緩，因為汽車和住房成本趨於平穩。</p>
</div><p>Data due at 0830 US Eastern time on Wednesday, March 11, 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據將於 2026 年 3 月 11 日美國東部時間 0830 發佈。</p>
</div><p>Summary:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摘要：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Goldman Sachs expects February core CPI to rise 0.17% m/m, below the 0.2% consensus.</li>
<li>The forecast implies 2.42% year-on-year core inflation, versus 2.5% consensus.</li>
<li>Headline CPI is projected to rise 0.18% m/m, also below expectations.</li>
<li>Softer used car prices and auto insurance are expected to help ease inflation pressures.</li>
<li>Shelter inflation is forecast to moderate further, while tariffs could push some categories higher.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>高盛預計 2 月份核心 CPI 環比上漲 0.17%，低於 0.2% 的市場共識。</li>
<li>這一預測意味着年同比核心通脹為 2.42%，低於 2.5% 的共識。</li>
<li>預計整體 CPI 環比上漲 0.18%，同樣低於預期。</li>
<li>二手車價格和汽車保險的下降預計將有助於緩解通脹壓力。</li>
<li>住房通脹預計將進一步放緩，而關税可能會推動某些類別的價格上漲。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs expects U.S. inflation to show signs of cooling in February, with softer price pressures in several key categories likely to keep the overall CPI reading slightly below market expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛預計美國 2 月份通脹將出現降温跡象，多個關鍵類別的價格壓力減輕可能使整體 CPI 讀數略低於市場預期。</p>
</div><p>In a preview of the upcoming inflation report, the bank forecasts core CPI rising 0.17% month-on-month, compared with the 0.2% consensus estimate. On an annual basis, that would place core inflation at roughly 2.42% year-over-year, also below the 2.5% consensus forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在即將發佈的通脹報告預覽中，該行預測核心 CPI 環比上漲 0.17%，低於 0.2% 的共識估計。按年計算，這將使核心通脹約為 2.42%，同樣低於 2.5% 的共識預測。</p>
</div><p>Headline CPI is expected to increase 0.18% on the month, reflecting modest rises in food and energy prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計整體 CPI 環比將上漲 0.18%，反映出食品和能源價格的温和上漲。</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs said several category-level trends should contribute to the softer reading. The bank expects auto-related inflation to cool, with used car prices forecast to decline 0.5% and car insurance falling 0.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛表示，多個類別的趨勢應有助於降低 CPI 讀數。該行預計與汽車相關的通脹將放緩，二手車價格預計下降 0.5%，汽車保險下降 0.3%。</p>
</div><p>Airfares are also expected to stabilise following a strong gain earlier in the year. Goldman projects airfare prices to remain unchanged in February after a 6.5% increase in January, citing signals from alternative pricing data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>機票價格預計在年初強勁上漲後將趨於穩定。高盛預測 2 月份機票價格將保持不變，此前 1 月份上漲了 6.5%，並引用了來自替代定價數據的信號。</p>
</div><p>Another key area to watch is shelter inflation, which has been one of the largest contributors to U.S. price pressures in recent years. Goldman expects moderation in both rent and owners’ equivalent rent, forecasting monthly increases of roughly 0.22% for each component, suggesting a continued slowdown in underlying housing inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個值得關注的關鍵領域是住房通脹，近年來它是美國價格壓力的最大貢獻者之一。高盛預計租金和業主等價租金將放緩，預測每個組成部分的月度增長約為 0.22%，這表明基礎住房通脹將繼續放緩。</p>
</div><p>However, the bank notes that trade policy could begin to introduce new inflation pressures. Tariffs are expected to exert modest upward pressure on certain goods categories, particularly sectors such as recreation that are more exposed to import costs. Goldman estimates tariffs could add roughly 0.05 percentage points to the inflation reading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，該行指出，貿易政策可能開始引入新的通脹壓力。預計關税將對某些商品類別施加温和的上行壓力，特別是那些更容易受到進口成本影響的休閒行業。高盛估計，關税可能會使通脹讀數增加約 0.05 個百分點。</p>
</div><p>The bank also said its CPI forecast is broadly consistent with a 0.24% monthly increase in core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred price measure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該行還表示，其 CPI 預測與核心 PCE 通脹的 0.24% 月度增長大致一致，這是美聯儲首選的價格衡量標準。</p>
</div><p>The February CPI report will be closely watched by markets as investors assess the trajectory of U.S. inflation and the likely path for Federal Reserve policy. Evidence that inflation is cooling could reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain a cautious approach to further policy tightening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2 月份 CPI 報告將受到市場的密切關注，因為投資者評估美國通脹的走勢以及美聯儲政策的可能路徑。通脹降温的證據可能會強化市場對美聯儲在進一步政策收緊方面保持謹慎態度的預期。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div><p>Other forecasts, summarized by Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他預測，由《華爾街日報》的 Nick Timiraos 總結：</p>
</div>

Goldman Sachs February CPI preview signals gradual inflation slowdown, not everyone agrees

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高盛的二月份 CPI 預覽顯示通脹將逐漸放緩，但並非所有人都持相同觀點