<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/jbmIBJK2B421iRz8b.hWLw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04MjY-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/88e9cfbd5c7ee1f94a747178fae34947?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="768" height="511" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/jbmIBJK2B421iRz8b.hWLw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04MjY-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/88e9cfbd5c7ee1f94a747178fae34947"/></p>
<p>中東戰爭幾乎使霍爾木茲海峽癱瘓，這是一個重要的石油運輸通道（Sahar AL ATTAR）</p>
<p>中東戰爭迫使兩個關鍵亞洲經濟體的石化巨頭削減生產，因為衝突擾亂了用於製造各種塑料產品的關鍵石油衍生成分的供應。</p>
<p>石腦油的稀缺——一種從石油中提煉的液體，對於製造乙烯至關重要，乙烯是從塑料購物袋到食品包裝的關鍵成分——可能會對許多行業產生連鎖反應。</p>
<p>日本和韓國的石化行業是兩國經濟的重要組成部分，依賴中東的石腦油供應——日本 74% 的進口來自該地區。</p>
<p>但供應正在枯竭，來自中東的石油重要運輸通道霍爾木茲海峽幾乎癱瘓。</p>
<p>自戰爭開始以來，運往亞洲的石腦油價格飆升了 60%。</p>
<p>&#34;我們估計日本的石腦油庫存目前約為 20 天&#34;，日本第四大經濟體的分析師在上週警告道。</p>
<p>&#34;如果霍爾木茲海峽關閉兩到三週，這可能會對石腦油生產產生重大影響，&#34;他們説。</p>
<p>這種影響已經開始顯現。</p>
<p>上週，日本巨頭三菱化學開始削減其蒸汽裂解裝置的生產能力，該設施將石腦油轉化為乙烯和丙烯，這是其作為合資企業運營的。</p>
<p>&#34;我們得出結論，石腦油進口的減少是不可避免的。我們的目標是避免暫停運營，&#34;一位公司發言人告訴法新社。</p>
<p>– '經濟安全' –</p>
<p>另一家日本領先化工公司三井化學上週開始因對石腦油供應的擔憂而削減兩家工廠的乙烯產量，一位公司發言人告訴法新社。</p>
<p>彭博社報道，日本 12 家乙烯工廠中已有一半減少了生產，這發生在美國和以色列對伊朗的打擊引發戰爭僅兩週後。</p>
<p>這種放緩增加了對其他行業產生連鎖反應的可能性。</p>
<p>信越化學將從 4 月 1 日起提高聚氯乙烯（PVC）的銷售價格——這種材料用於製造窗框、地板覆蓋物、管道和電纜絕緣。</p>
<p>&#34;乙烯的價格——PVC 的關鍵原材料——已經飆升，我們受到供應商的供應量限制，迫使我們減少生產，&#34;該公司在一份聲明中表示。</p>
<p>這場危機也影響到了韓國，韓國是亞洲最大的經濟體之一。</p>
<p>&#34;我們上週通知客户，我們可能會對一種產品，二辛酸對苯二甲酸酯，宣佈不可抗力，&#34;LG 化學的一位代表告訴法新社，這種產品用於從化妝品到衣物的各種用途。</p>
<p>南韓政府週二表示，將限制石腦油出口，顯示出局勢的緊迫性。</p>
<p>&#34;我們將在本週末之前將石腦油指定為與經濟安全相關的項目，&#34;財政部長具允哲表示。</p>
<p>&#34;政府將通過出口限制和其他必要措施來解決困難。&#34;</p>
<p>– '高度依賴' –</p>
<p>衝擊波正在蔓延至整個亞洲，新加坡的 PCS——一家乙烯和其他石化產品的生產商——於 3 月 5 日宣佈已向客户發出正式不可抗力通知。</p>
<p>全球聚乙烯的供應——石腦油的衍生物，廣泛用於塑料包裝、瓶子和管道——也受到干擾，中東國家是主要出口國。</p>
<p>彭博新能源財經分析師 Philip Geurts 指出，矛盾的是，像韓國或新加坡這樣的主要聚乙烯生產商在其他市場需求強勁和價格上漲的情況下，&#34;可能會有優勢&#34;。</p>
<p>但他在一次簡報會上強調，&#34;如果你根本無法生產化學品，就很難從中受益，因為對中東的原料（石腦油）依賴極高。&#34;</p>
<p>這場危機發生在日本和韓國已經因中國的產能過剩而關閉老舊的石化設施之際，中國在基礎設施方面具有更強的競爭力。</p>
<p>由於其煉油能力和獲取俄羅斯石腦油的能力，中國目前相對不受影響。</p>
<p>根據韓國的報道，首爾也在考慮轉向俄羅斯作為替代來源。</p>
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<p>正在進行的中東戰爭嚴重影響了日本和韓國的石化產業，由於石腦油短缺這一生產乙烯的關鍵成分，導致了顯著的減產。霍爾木茲海峽的局勢受到干擾，石腦油價格上漲了 60%。三菱化學和三井化學等主要公司已開始減少產量，而韓國政府計劃限制石腦油出口以確保經濟安全。預計這一危機將對依賴石化產品的各個行業產生廣泛影響</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/jbmIBJK2B421iRz8b.hWLw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04MjY-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/88e9cfbd5c7ee1f94a747178fae34947" alt="" original-src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/jbmIBJK2B421iRz8b.hWLw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04MjY-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/88e9cfbd5c7ee1f94a747178fae34947"/></p>
<p>The Middle East war has virtually paralysed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane for oil (Sahar AL ATTAR)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中東戰爭幾乎使霍爾木茲海峽癱瘓，這是一個重要的石油運輸通道（Sahar AL ATTAR）</p>
</div><p>The Middle East war is forcing petrochemical giants in two key Asian economies to cut production as the conflict rattles supplies of a crucial oil-derived component used to make a range of plastic goods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中東戰爭迫使兩個關鍵亞洲經濟體的石化巨頭削減生產，因為衝突擾亂了用於製造各種塑料產品的關鍵石油衍生成分的供應。</p>
</div><p>The scarcity of naphtha -- a liquid distilled from petroleum that is essential for making ethylene, a key ingredient in everything from plastic grocery bags to food packaging -- risks a knock-on effect across many industries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>石腦油的稀缺——一種從石油中提煉的液體，對於製造乙烯至關重要，乙烯是從塑料購物袋到食品包裝的關鍵成分——可能會對許多行業產生連鎖反應。</p>
</div><p>The petrochemical sector in Japan and South Korea, an important part of both countries' economies, depends on the Middle East for their naphtha supplies -- with 74 percent of Japan's imports coming from the region.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本和韓國的石化行業是兩國經濟的重要組成部分，依賴中東的石腦油供應——日本 74% 的進口來自該地區。</p>
</div><p>But supplies are drying up, with a vital shipping lane for oil from the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz, virtually paralysed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但供應正在枯竭，來自中東的石油重要運輸通道霍爾木茲海峽幾乎癱瘓。</p>
</div><p>The price of naphtha shipped into Asia has soared 60 percent since the war began.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自戰爭開始以來，運往亞洲的石腦油價格飆升了 60%。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We estimate that naphtha inventories currently stand at around 20 days&#34; in Japan, the world's fourth-biggest economy, analysts at Nomura warned last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我們估計日本的石腦油庫存目前約為 20 天&#34;，日本第四大經濟體的分析師在上週警告道。</p>
</div><p>&#34;And if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for two to three weeks, this could have a major impact&#34; on naphtha production, they said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;如果霍爾木茲海峽關閉兩到三週，這可能會對石腦油生產產生重大影響，&#34;他們説。</p>
</div><p>That impact is already creeping in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種影響已經開始顯現。</p>
</div><p>Last week, Japanese giant Mitsubishi Chemical started cutting production capacity of its steam cracker, a facility that converts naphtha into ethylene and propylene, which it runs as a joint venture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週，日本巨頭三菱化學開始削減其蒸汽裂解裝置的生產能力，該設施將石腦油轉化為乙烯和丙烯，這是其作為合資企業運營的。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We concluded that a reduction in naphtha imports was inevitable. Our goal is to avoid a suspension of our operations,&#34; a company spokesperson told AFP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我們得出結論，石腦油進口的減少是不可避免的。我們的目標是避免暫停運營，&#34;一位公司發言人告訴法新社。</p>
</div><p>– 'Economic security' –</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>– '經濟安全' –</p>
</div><p>Mitsui Chemicals, another leading Japanese chemicals firm, started cutting ethylene output at two plants last week because of concerns over naphtha supply, a company spokesperson told AFP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一家日本領先化工公司三井化學上週開始因對石腦油供應的擔憂而削減兩家工廠的乙烯產量，一位公司發言人告訴法新社。</p>
</div><p>Half of Japan's 12 ethylene plants have already reduced production, Bloomberg reported, just two weeks after US-Israeli strikes on Iran ignited the war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>彭博社報道，日本 12 家乙烯工廠中已有一半減少了生產，這發生在美國和以色列對伊朗的打擊引發戰爭僅兩週後。</p>
</div><p>That slowdown increases the likelihood of knock-on effects across other industries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種放緩增加了對其他行業產生連鎖反應的可能性。</p>
</div><p>Shin-Etsu Chemical will hike the selling price of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) -- which is used to make window frames, floor covering, pipes and cable insulation -- in the Japanese market from April 1.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>信越化學將從 4 月 1 日起提高聚氯乙烯（PVC）的銷售價格——這種材料用於製造窗框、地板覆蓋物、管道和電纜絕緣。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The price of ethylene -- a key raw material for PVC -- has surged, and we have been subjected to supply volume restrictions by our suppliers, compelling us to curtail our production output,&#34; the company said in a statement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;乙烯的價格——PVC 的關鍵原材料——已經飆升，我們受到供應商的供應量限制，迫使我們減少生產，&#34;該公司在一份聲明中表示。</p>
</div><p>The crisis has also hit South Korea, one of Asia's biggest economies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這場危機也影響到了韓國，韓國是亞洲最大的經濟體之一。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We informed our customers last week that we might declare force majeure on one of our products, dioctyl terephthalate&#34; -- which is used in everything from cosmetics to clothes, a representative of LG Chem told AFP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我們上週通知客户，我們可能會對一種產品，二辛酸對苯二甲酸酯，宣佈不可抗力，&#34;LG 化學的一位代表告訴法新社，這種產品用於從化妝品到衣物的各種用途。</p>
</div><p>In a sign of how critical the situation has become, the South Korean government said Tuesday that it would restrict naphtha exports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>南韓政府週二表示，將限制石腦油出口，顯示出局勢的緊迫性。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We will designate naphtha as an item related to economic security by the end of the week,&#34; Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我們將在本週末之前將石腦油指定為與經濟安全相關的項目，&#34;財政部長具允哲表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The government will work to resolve the difficulties through export restrictions and other necessary measures.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;政府將通過出口限制和其他必要措施來解決困難。&#34;</p>
</div><p>– 'High dependence' –</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>– '高度依賴' –</p>
</div><p>The shockwave is spreading across Asia, with Singapore's PCS -- a producer of ethylene and other petrochemicals -- announcing on March 5 that it had issued a formal force majeure notice to its customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>衝擊波正在蔓延至整個亞洲，新加坡的 PCS——一家乙烯和其他石化產品的生產商——於 3 月 5 日宣佈已向客户發出正式不可抗力通知。</p>
</div><p>The global supply of polyethylene -- a derivative of naphtha that is ubiquitous, particularly in plastic packaging, bottles and pipes -- is also disrupted, with countries in the Middle East major exporters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球聚乙烯的供應——石腦油的衍生物，廣泛用於塑料包裝、瓶子和管道——也受到干擾，中東國家是主要出口國。</p>
</div><p>The paradox, noted BloombergNEF analyst Philip Geurts, is that major polyethylene producers like South Korea or Singapore &#34;could have an advantage&#34; given strong demand in other markets and rising prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>彭博新能源財經分析師 Philip Geurts 指出，矛盾的是，像韓國或新加坡這樣的主要聚乙烯生產商在其他市場需求強勁和價格上漲的情況下，&#34;可能會有優勢&#34;。</p>
</div><p>But &#34;it's very hard to benefit from that if you can't produce the chemicals in the first place,&#34; he stressed at a briefing, because &#34;the feedstock (naphtha) dependence on the Middle East is just extraordinarily high&#34;.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但他在一次簡報會上強調，&#34;如果你根本無法生產化學品，就很難從中受益，因為對中東的原料（石腦油）依賴極高。&#34;</p>
</div><p>The crisis comes as Japan and South Korea were already closing aging petrochemical facilities because of chronic overcapacity in China, a country with far more competitive infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這場危機發生在日本和韓國已經因中國的產能過剩而關閉老舊的石化設施之際，中國在基礎設施方面具有更強的競爭力。</p>
</div><p>China is relatively spared for now, thanks to its refining capacity and its ability to source Russian naphtha.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於其煉油能力和獲取俄羅斯石腦油的能力，中國目前相對不受影響。</p>
</div><p>According to South Korean reports, Seoul is also considering turning to Russia as an alternative source.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據韓國的報道，首爾也在考慮轉向俄羅斯作為替代來源。</p>
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日本和韓國的石化行業因伊朗戰爭而減緩產量