<ul>
<li>日本央行維持利率在 0.75%，緊縮偏向依然存在</li>
<li>高田獨 dissent，田村與大多數保持一致</li>
<li>日本國債收益率因財政和能源擔憂而上升</li>
<li>片山加大幹預言辭，但日元幾乎沒有反應</li>
<li>美元/日元緊握關鍵支撐，下行風險加大</li>
</ul>
<h2>日本央行維持利率，僅有一人反對</h2>
<p>日本央行在三月份維持利率不變，符合預期，保持隔夜利率在 0.75%，該決定以 8-1 的投票通過。</p>
<p>高田再次表示反對，稱通脹實際上已達到目標，並警告進口成本上升意味着央行應該已經提高利率。</p>
<p>但更大的故事可能是沒有人反對。去年 11 月，高田和田村都推動在 12 月加息之前採取更緊縮的政策。這一次，田村與大多數保持一致，留下高田獨自一人。對交易者來説，這很重要，這表明內部對再次加息的推動力沒有上次那麼強。</p>
<p>在前景方面，央行指出中東局勢和原油價格上漲是一個關鍵風險。信息相當簡單，如果能源價格持續上漲，將直接推動日本的通脹，尤其是在日元貶值仍在抬高進口成本的情況下。</p>
<p>它還表示，由於政府的能源支持，通脹在短期內可能會降至 2% 以下，但這並不是重要的趨勢。央行仍然預計基礎通脹將回升，受到油價上漲和工資持續上漲的推動。</p>
<p>增長，按照它的話説，是適度的。沒有出現大幅回落，但也沒有過熱。儘管價格上漲，消費者仍在消費，企業在投資，但房地產市場疲軟，全球需求不均。金融條件依然寬鬆，這意味着它認為政策尚未收緊。</p>
<p>關於日元，雖然沒有直接提及，但信號已經足夠明確。央行表示將對金融和外匯市場的動態保持 “警惕”，以及這些動態如何影響通脹。對交易者來説，這意味着日本央行承認貨幣貶值和能源價格上漲是同一故事的一部分。</p>
<p>重要的是，央行沒有改變其緊縮信號。它仍然認為實際利率，即經過通脹調整的名義利率，非常低，並表示如果前景保持不變，將繼續加息。因此，方向沒有改變，即使緊迫性也沒有加大。</p>
<p>現在很多事情可能取決於行長植田和男在會議後期的語氣，這應該會提供更清晰的指引，説明更廣泛的委員會對利率前景的看法。</p>
<h2>四月加息略有偏好</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144338-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="682" height="697" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144338-1.png"/></p>
<p>來源：彭博社</p>
<p>市場定價反映了這一點。</p>
<p>四月加息的可能性僅略微偏好，約為 57%。在此之後，市場直到七月才完全定價下一次加息，基於掉期，年底前再次加息的可能性約為四分之三。</p>
<h2>日本國債因財政風險下滑</h2>
<p>即使日本央行維持緊縮偏向，對日本國債的壓力也沒有減輕。</p>
<p>正如週末所提到的，日本國債收益率曲線出現了熊市陡峭化，這一趨勢在決定之前持續，收益率在各個到期日上升，長期債券的波動尤為明顯。市場仍在推動更高的利率路徑，即使日元未能作出反應。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144452-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1841" height="1123" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144452-2.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>這次的催化劑是能源價格的再次上漲。週三，因以色列和伊朗對海灣能源基礎設施的攻擊，原油和液化天然氣期貨上漲，進一步加大了日本利率市場的壓力。</p>
<p>對日本來説，這是一個熟悉的問題。作為一個主要的能源進口國，價格上漲提升了通脹預期，同時也加劇了對依賴外部供應的經濟體的能源安全擔憂。</p>
<p>綜合來看，仍然存在相同的因素。市場繼續對政策制定者施加壓力，同時對債券市場和日元施加壓力，即使日本央行表示進一步加息仍在考慮之中。</p>
<h2>日元反應和干預風險</h2>
<p>在日本財政部長表示當局以 “極高的警惕” 關注市場，隨時準備採取行動，並指出近期外匯波動部分是由投機驅動後，美元/日元在會話早些時候下跌。</p>
<p>片山的這種組合通常標誌着言辭的升級，通常在干預前出現，幫助日元最初上漲。</p>
<p>但這一走勢並沒有持續。儘管言辭更強烈，日元在這兩次言論和日本央行決定後仍然難以獲得實質性支撐。這很有意思。即使干預式的語言開始滲入，市場並沒有反應。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144533-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1835" height="1120" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144533-3.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>在本週早些時候跌破自二月份低點以來的趨勢支撐後，美元/日元儘管最新小幅回調，但已重新奪回該水平，在植田的新聞發佈會前停留在該水平上。對於交易者來説，這仍然是一個直接的關注點，158.90 是另一個支撐位，恰好低於該水平，與 3 月 9 日設定的高點相吻合。</p>
<p>如果突破這些水平，將為更深的回調打開道路，意味着趨勢變化可能正在進行中，帶來 157.88 和 50 日均線與 156.53 的水平交匯點等水平。如果由干預或財政部的利率檢查引發，突破這些水平的可能性將很大。</p>
<p>在上方，該貨幣對仍然受到 160.23 的阻力限制，該水平之前標誌着 2024 年日本央行的干預。考慮到我們所處的波動市場環境，這些阻力不應被過於重視，但振盪器發出的信號表明上行力量正在逐漸減弱。這並不是熊市投資者蜂擁而入的信號，但考慮到干預的威脅，這種變化是可以理解的。</p>

3040

2525

1499

1346

1357

3110

1369

<p>日本銀行（BOJ）以 8 票對 1 票的結果維持隔夜利率在 0.75%，儘管有一票反對，仍然傳達出收緊政策的傾向。由於政府支持，預計通脹將暫時降至 2% 以下，但基礎通脹預計將因油價上漲而上升。日本銀行對貨幣貶值和能源價格保持警惕，暗示未來可能加息。市場預期在 4 月加息的可能性較小，而 7 月的概率更強。儘管有干預的言辭，日元反應有限，美元/日元仍處於關鍵支撐水平</p>

<ul>
<li>BOJ holds rates at 0.75% with tightening bias intact</li>
<li>Takata the lone dissenter, Tamura stays with majority</li>
<li>JGB yields push higher on fiscal and energy concerns</li>
<li>Katayama ramps up intervention rhetoric, but yen barely reacts</li>
<li>USD/JPY clings to key support with downside risks building</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本央行維持利率在 0.75%，緊縮偏向依然存在</li>
<li>高田獨 dissent，田村與大多數保持一致</li>
<li>日本國債收益率因財政和能源擔憂而上升</li>
<li>片山加大幹預言辭，但日元幾乎沒有反應</li>
<li>美元/日元緊握關鍵支撐，下行風險加大</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>BOJ holds with only one dissent</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日本央行維持利率，僅有一人反對</h2>
</div><p>The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged in March, as expected, keeping its overnight rate at 0.75% with the decision passed by an 8–1 vote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本央行在三月份維持利率不變，符合預期，保持隔夜利率在 0.75%，該決定以 8-1 的投票通過。</p>
</div><p>Hajime Takata dissented again, saying inflation is effectively at target and warning that rising import costs mean the Bank should already be running a higher rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高田再次表示反對，稱通脹實際上已達到目標，並警告進口成本上升意味着央行應該已經提高利率。</p>
</div><p>But the bigger story may be who didn’t dissent. Back in November, both Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura pushed for tighter policy ahead of the December hike. This time, Tamura stayed with the majority, leaving Takata on his own. For traders, that matters, it suggests the internal push for another near-term hike isn’t as strong as it was last time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但更大的故事可能是沒有人反對。去年 11 月，高田和田村都推動在 12 月加息之前採取更緊縮的政策。這一次，田村與大多數保持一致，留下高田獨自一人。對交易者來説，這很重要，這表明內部對再次加息的推動力沒有上次那麼強。</p>
</div><p>On the outlook, the Bank pointed to the Middle East and rising crude oil prices as a key risk. The message is pretty simple, if energy keeps climbing, it feeds straight into inflation in Japan, especially with a weaker yen still lifting import costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在前景方面，央行指出中東局勢和原油價格上漲是一個關鍵風險。信息相當簡單，如果能源價格持續上漲，將直接推動日本的通脹，尤其是在日元貶值仍在抬高進口成本的情況下。</p>
</div><p>It also said inflation will likely dip below 2% in the near term due to government energy support, but that’s not the trend that matters. The Bank still expects underlying inflation to pick back up, helped by higher oil prices and wages continuing to firm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它還表示，由於政府的能源支持，通脹在短期內可能會降至 2% 以下，但這並不是重要的趨勢。央行仍然預計基礎通脹將回升，受到油價上漲和工資持續上漲的推動。</p>
</div><p>Growth, in its words, is moderate. Nothing rolling over, but nothing running hot either. Consumers are still spending despite higher prices, businesses are investing, but housing is soft and global demand is patchy. Financial conditions remain easy, meaning it doesn't think policy is restrictive yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>增長，按照它的話説，是適度的。沒有出現大幅回落，但也沒有過熱。儘管價格上漲，消費者仍在消費，企業在投資，但房地產市場疲軟，全球需求不均。金融條件依然寬鬆，這意味着它認為政策尚未收緊。</p>
</div><p>There wasn’t much said directly on the yen, but the signal was clear enough. The Bank said it will stay “vigilant” to financial and FX market moves and how they impact inflation. For traders, that’s the BOJ acknowledging that currency weakness and higher energy prices are part of the same story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於日元，雖然沒有直接提及，但信號已經足夠明確。央行表示將對金融和外匯市場的動態保持 “警惕”，以及這些動態如何影響通脹。對交易者來説，這意味着日本央行承認貨幣貶值和能源價格上漲是同一故事的一部分。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, the Bank didn’t shift its tightening signal. It still sees real rates, that is, nominal rates adjusted for inflation, as very low and said it will keep raising rates if the outlook holds. So the direction hasn’t changed, even if the urgency hasn’t picked up either.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，央行沒有改變其緊縮信號。它仍然認為實際利率，即經過通脹調整的名義利率，非常低，並表示如果前景保持不變，將繼續加息。因此，方向沒有改變，即使緊迫性也沒有加大。</p>
</div><p>A lot may now come down to the tone struck by Governor Kazuo Ueda later in the session, which should offer a clearer steer on how the broader Board is thinking about the rate outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在很多事情可能取決於行長植田和男在會議後期的語氣，這應該會提供更清晰的指引，説明更廣泛的委員會對利率前景的看法。</p>
</div><h2>April hike marginally favoured</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>四月加息略有偏好</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144338-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144338-1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Bloomberg</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：彭博社</p>
</div><p>Market pricing reflects that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場定價反映了這一點。</p>
</div><p>A move in April is only slightly favoured at around 57%. Beyond that, markets don’t fully price the next hike until July, with roughly a three-in-four chance of another move by year-end based on swaps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>四月加息的可能性僅略微偏好，約為 57%。在此之後，市場直到七月才完全定價下一次加息，基於掉期，年底前再次加息的可能性約為四分之三。</p>
</div><h2>JGBs slide on fiscal risks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日本國債因財政風險下滑</h2>
</div><p>Even with the BOJ maintaining a tightening bias, pressure on Japanese government bonds hasn’t eased.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使日本央行維持緊縮偏向，對日本國債的壓力也沒有減輕。</p>
</div><p>As flagged over the weekend, the JGB curve has been bear steepening, and that trend continued ahead of the decision, with yields rising across maturities, led by sharp moves in longer-dated tenors. Markets are still pushing for a higher rate path, even as the yen fails to respond.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如週末所提到的，日本國債收益率曲線出現了熊市陡峭化，這一趨勢在決定之前持續，收益率在各個到期日上升，長期債券的波動尤為明顯。市場仍在推動更高的利率路徑，即使日元未能作出反應。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144452-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144452-2.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>The catalyst this time was another leg higher in energy prices. Crude and LNG futures rallied after attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf on Wednesday, first by Israel and then by Iran, adding to the pressure already building in Japan’s rates market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這次的催化劑是能源價格的再次上漲。週三，因以色列和伊朗對海灣能源基礎設施的攻擊，原油和液化天然氣期貨上漲，進一步加大了日本利率市場的壓力。</p>
</div><p>For Japan, that’s a familiar problem. As a major energy importer, higher prices lift inflation expectations while also reinforcing concerns around energy security for an economy heavily reliant on external supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對日本來説，這是一個熟悉的問題。作為一個主要的能源進口國，價格上漲提升了通脹預期，同時也加劇了對依賴外部供應的經濟體的能源安全擔憂。</p>
</div><p>Put it together, and the same factors remain in play. Markets continue to test policymakers, leaning against both the bond market and the yen at the same time, even as the BOJ signals that further rate hikes are still on the table.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>綜合來看，仍然存在相同的因素。市場繼續對政策制定者施加壓力，同時對債券市場和日元施加壓力，即使日本央行表示進一步加息仍在考慮之中。</p>
</div><h2>Yen reaction and intervention risk</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日元反應和干預風險</h2>
</div><p>USD/JPY had fallen earlier in the session following comments from Japan’s finance minister who said authorities were watching markets with an “extremely high level of vigilance”, were prepared to act at any time, and flagged that recent FX moves had been driven partly by speculation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在日本財政部長表示當局以 “極高的警惕” 關注市場，隨時準備採取行動，並指出近期外匯波動部分是由投機驅動後，美元/日元在會話早些時候下跌。</p>
</div><p>That combination from Katayama typically marks an escalation in rhetoric and is often seen just ahead of intervention, helping to lift the yen initially.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>片山的這種組合通常標誌着言辭的升級，通常在干預前出現，幫助日元最初上漲。</p>
</div><p>But the move didn’t last. Despite the stronger language, the yen has struggled to gain any real traction following both those remarks and the BOJ decision. That’s telling. Even with intervention-style language starting to creep in, the market isn’t biting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這一走勢並沒有持續。儘管言辭更強烈，日元在這兩次言論和日本央行決定後仍然難以獲得實質性支撐。這很有意思。即使干預式的語言開始滲入，市場並沒有反應。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144533-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260319144533-3.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>After breaking beneath trend support dating back to the February lows earlier this week, USD/JPY has reclaimed the level despite the latest modest pullback, resting upon it ahead of Ueda’s presser. It remains the immediate focal point for traders, with 158.90 another support level just below, coinciding with the high set on March 9.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在本週早些時候跌破自二月份低點以來的趨勢支撐後，美元/日元儘管最新小幅回調，但已重新奪回該水平，在植田的新聞發佈會前停留在該水平上。對於交易者來説，這仍然是一個直接的關注點，158.90 是另一個支撐位，恰好低於該水平，與 3 月 9 日設定的高點相吻合。</p>
</div><p>A clean break of those levels would open the path for a deeper flush, implying a trend change may be underway, bringing levels such as 157.88 and the intersection of the 50DMA and horizontal support at 156.53 into play. If sparked by intervention or a rate check from the MoF, a move through those levels would be likely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果突破這些水平，將為更深的回調打開道路，意味着趨勢變化可能正在進行中，帶來 157.88 和 50 日均線與 156.53 的水平交匯點等水平。如果由干預或財政部的利率檢查引發，突破這些水平的可能性將很大。</p>
</div><p>On the topside, the pair remains capped beneath resistance at 160.23, a level that previously marked BOJ intervention in 2024. Less weight should be placed on them given the volatile market regime we find ourselves in, but the message from the oscillators points to gradually waning upside strength. Not a signal for bears to pile in, but an understandable shift given the threat of intervention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上方，該貨幣對仍然受到 160.23 的阻力限制，該水平之前標誌着 2024 年日本央行的干預。考慮到我們所處的波動市場環境，這些阻力不應被過於重視，但振盪器發出的信號表明上行力量正在逐漸減弱。這並不是熊市投資者蜂擁而入的信號，但考慮到干預的威脅，這種變化是可以理解的。</p>
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USD/JPY Forecast: Yen shrugs off jawboning as pressure builds on BOJ

Forex

Soliton Systems K.K.

Japan Agricultural Cooperatives Group

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.

Nomura Holdings, Inc.

Nitto Boseki Co., Ltd.

Asset Management One Co., Ltd.

美元/日元預測：儘管對日本央行的壓力加大，日元對口頭干預置之不理