<p>我們最近討論的這個私人信貸混亂引發了一個沒人想問的問題：<em>2026 年會不會像 2008 年一樣？</em></p>
<p>很容易理解為什麼一些投資者可能會這樣想。這也是我最近一直在思考的事情。但這裏有個轉折：我認為 2026 年更像另一個年份，而不是 2008 年。</p>
<p>那就是 2023 年。</p>
<p>如果你還記得，_那一年_是股票的買入機會——也是我們今天要討論的封閉式基金（CEF）。事實上，2008 年_和_2023 年最終都成為了這個 7.7% 收益基金的強勁佈局。</p>
<p>而今天的私人信貸困境為此後的強勁反彈打開了大門。</p>
<p>當然，2008 年不需要介紹。當時，由次貸推動的房地產泡沫摧毀了全球經濟。（如果你太年輕而不記得，我建議你去看一下_《大空頭》_。）標準普爾 500 指數從 2007 年的高點下跌超過 50%，直到 2009 年 3 月初觸底。股票在 2012 年中才再次達到 2007 年的高點。</p>
<p><strong>2009 年是漫長復甦的開始...</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2008-2009.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2008-2009.png"/></p>
<p>還有另一種可能性（在我看來更有可能），如果我們今年確實看到干擾，它更像是 2023 年，一個我們都能記得的時期。</p>
<p>年初，硅谷銀行和其他一些地區性銀行的倒閉讓人們想起了 15 年前發生的黑暗記憶。但如果我們看看之後發生的事情，很快就會發現 2023 年的下跌是一個絕佳的買入機會：</p>
<p><strong>... 而 2023 年標誌着大市場上漲的開始</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2023-2026.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2023-2026.png"/></p>
<p>雖然 2008 年是讓全球經濟跪倒的一年，但 2023 年卻成為了股票的強勁年份，從頭到尾回報達 26.2%。截至目前，自 2023 年 3 月的低點以來，標準普爾 500 指數已上漲了 80%。</p>
<p>不過，我相信你還記得當時空氣中的恐懼。但我們看待這次拋售的方式是：這是一個以低價買入的機會。在 2023 年 3 月的一篇文章中，我寫道：“這次拋售導致了更深的 CEF 折扣——以及我們_CEF Insider_投資組合中的一些不錯的買入機會。”</p>
<p>在 2023 年 3 月的_CEF Insider_期刊中，我們做出了一個逆向操作，買入了以金融為重點的 <strong>John Hancock Financial Opportunities Fund (BTO)</strong>。到我們在 2024 年 7 月賣出時，BTO 已經帶來了 24.1% 的可觀總回報。（此後我們又將該基金重新加入了我們的投資組合。）</p>
<p>該基金在我們購買時的收益率為 8.4%，並在過去 15 年中穩步增長分紅（由於其股價上漲，該基金今天的收益率為 7.7%）：</p>
<p><strong>BTO 的高額且不斷增長的分紅</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Dividend.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Dividend.png"/></p>
<p>現在，得益於今年的波動性，我們有機會以低價購買 BTO：</p>
<p><strong>BTO 從溢價轉為折扣</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Discount.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Discount.png"/></p>
<p>事實上，在過去十年中，BTO 的淨資產價值平均溢價為 3.7%，使得這一淨資產價值（NAV）的折扣看起來比實際更大。為什麼這個交易會出現在我們面前？線索在於該基金的投資組合：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Holdings.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Holdings.png"/></p>
<p><em>來源：John Hancock</em></p>
<p>正如你所看到的，BTO 專注於地區性銀行。<strong>Old National Bancorp (ONB)</strong>、<strong>Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP)</strong>、<strong>Popular (BPOP)</strong> 和 <strong>Citizens Financial Group (CFG)</strong> 都是在過去幾年中蓬勃發展的地區性銀行。</p>
<p>這也推動了 BTO 在長期內的強勁回報：過去十年年化回報率為 10.7%。換句話説，2016 年投資 BTO 的每 10 萬美元，截至目前大約值 31.9 萬美元。</p>
<p>即使在 2008 年之後，BTO（如下圖綠色部分所示）表現也很好：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Total-Returns.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Total-Returns.png"/></p>
<p><em>來源：John Hancock</em></p>
<p>在大衰退後的十年中，BTO 將 10 萬美元變成了 267,478 美元。這是一個穩健的正回報，顯示出該基金即使在一代人中最嚴重的金融危機之後仍能帶來利潤。</p>
<p><strong>我的看法？這個私人信貸混亂更像是 2023 年，而不是 2008 年</strong></p>
<p>這讓我們回到了私人信貸，以及股票是否因這一高度不透明市場中的風險管理不善而面臨回調的邊緣。</p>
<p>我的看法？很可能，這種情況只是小題大做。首先考慮更廣泛的背景：私人信貸市場約為總企業信貸市場的六分之一，最壞的估計表明，私人信貸通常以當前水平的 20% 折扣進行標記。</p>
<p>其次，像 BTO 這樣的多元化基金即使在最壞的情況下也可能表現良好：該基金持有 186 種資產，涵蓋了多家銀行、保險公司和其他金融機構。</p>
<p>粗略估計表明，私人信貸的回調可能僅會對 BTO 的淨資產價值造成約 3.3% 的影響。我認為這在很大程度上已經被定價在內，因為 BTO 的折扣最近擴大，而該基金通常以 3.7% 的溢價交易。</p>
<p>這兩個數字是這裏需要關注的，因為它們表明 BTO——在長期和短期內表現強勁——無論這一切如何發展，都適合買入。</p>
<p><strong>我也對這四隻 9.2% 收益的基金髮出緊急買入信號</strong></p>
<p>不僅僅是 BTO——當前市場動盪也擴大了許多其他 CEF 的折扣。我們不僅在 BTO 上加碼，還在另外四隻 <strong>總收益率為 9.2% 的基金</strong> 上加碼。</p>
<p>我稱它們為 “全明星” 基金，因為它們在長期內表現強勁，更不用説那豐厚的 9.2% 分紅，其中兩隻每月支付一次。</p>
<p>如果你想在這些四隻基金的深度折扣關閉之前抓住機會，就沒有時間可以浪費。<strong>點擊這裏，我會告訴你更多關於它們的信息，並提供一份免費的特別報告，揭示它們的名稱和代碼</strong>。</p>
<h5>另請參見：</h5>
<p> 沃倫·巴菲特的股息股票</p>
<p> 股息增長股票：25 位貴族</p>
<p> 未來的股息貴族：緊密競爭者</p>
<p>此處表達的觀點和意見僅代表作者的觀點和意見，並不一定反映納斯達克公司的觀點。</p>

<p>這篇文章討論了對私人信貸市場的擔憂，將 2026 年與 2008 年進行比較，同時暗示 2026 年可能更接近 2023 年。文章強調了在 2023 年硅谷銀行倒閉後出現的買入機會，這一事件導致市場大幅上漲。重點關注的是 John Hancock Financial Opportunities Fund (BTO)，該基金的收益率為 7.7%，並且在過去幾年中表現出強勁的回報，尤其是在市場下跌期間。作者認為當前的私人信貸問題是可控的，併為 BTO 提供了一個買入機會</p>

<p>This private-credit mess we've been talking about lately has raised a question no one wants to ask: <em>Is 2026 shaping up to be another 2008?</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們最近討論的這個私人信貸混亂引發了一個沒人想問的問題：<em>2026 年會不會像 2008 年一樣？</em></p>
</div><p>It's easy to see why some investors may be thinking along those lines. And it's something I've been giving a lot of thought to lately. But here's the twist: There's another year I think 2026 resembles a lot more than 2008.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很容易理解為什麼一些投資者可能會這樣想。這也是我最近一直在思考的事情。但這裏有個轉折：我認為 2026 年更像另一個年份，而不是 2008 年。</p>
</div><p>That would be 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那就是 2023 年。</p>
</div><p>If you remember, <em>that</em> year was a buying opportunity in stocks--and to pick up the closed-end fund (CEF) we're going to discuss today. In fact, both 2008 <em>and</em> 2023 ultimately turned into strong setups for this 7.7%-paying fund.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你還記得，_那一年_是股票的買入機會——也是我們今天要討論的封閉式基金（CEF）。事實上，2008 年_和_2023 年最終都成為了這個 7.7% 收益基金的強勁佈局。</p>
</div><p>And today's private-credit woes open the door to another strong run from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而今天的私人信貸困境為此後的強勁反彈打開了大門。</p>
</div><p>2008, of course, needs no introduction. Back then, a housing bubble inflated by subprime mortgages took down the global economy. (If you're too young to remember, I'd recommend watching <em>The Big Short</em>.) The S&amp;P 500 fell more than 50% from its 2007 peak till it reached the trough in early March 2009. Stocks didn't see that 2007 high again until mid-2012.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，2008 年不需要介紹。當時，由次貸推動的房地產泡沫摧毀了全球經濟。（如果你太年輕而不記得，我建議你去看一下_《大空頭》_。）標準普爾 500 指數從 2007 年的高點下跌超過 50%，直到 2009 年 3 月初觸底。股票在 2012 年中才再次達到 2007 年的高點。</p>
</div><p><strong>2009 Was the Start of a Long Grind Back ...</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>2009 年是漫長復甦的開始...</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2008-2009.png" alt="" original-src="https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2008-2009.png"/></p>
<p>Then there's the other (and in my view more likely) possibility that if we do see a disruption this year, it'll look more like 2023, a time we can all remember.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>還有另一種可能性（在我看來更有可能），如果我們今年確實看到干擾，它更像是 2023 年，一個我們都能記得的時期。</p>
</div><p>Early that year, the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and some other regional lenders brought back dark memories of what had happened 15 years earlier. But if we look at what's happened since, it quickly becomes clear that the 2023 dip was a fantastic buying opportunity:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>年初，硅谷銀行和其他一些地區性銀行的倒閉讓人們想起了 15 年前發生的黑暗記憶。但如果我們看看之後發生的事情，很快就會發現 2023 年的下跌是一個絕佳的買入機會：</p>
</div><p><strong>... While 2023 Signaled the Start of a Big Market Surge</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>... 而 2023 年標誌着大市場上漲的開始</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2023-2026.png" alt="" original-src="https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SPY-2023-2026.png"/></p>
<p>While 2008 was a year that brought the global economy to its knees, 2023 ended up being a strong year for stocks, returning 26.2% from beginning to end. And since the trough of the March 2023 selloff, the S&amp;P 500 has gained a solid 80%, as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然 2008 年是讓全球經濟跪倒的一年，但 2023 年卻成為了股票的強勁年份，從頭到尾回報達 26.2%。截至目前，自 2023 年 3 月的低點以來，標準普爾 500 指數已上漲了 80%。</p>
</div><p>Still, I'm sure you recall the fear in the air at the time. But we saw the selloff for what it was: a chance to buy at a bargain. In a March 2023 article, I wrote that &#34;the selloff has resulted in deeper CEF discounts--and some nice buying opportunities in our <em>CEF Insider</em> portfolio.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，我相信你還記得當時空氣中的恐懼。但我們看待這次拋售的方式是：這是一個以低價買入的機會。在 2023 年 3 月的一篇文章中，我寫道：“這次拋售導致了更深的 CEF 折扣——以及我們_CEF Insider_投資組合中的一些不錯的買入機會。”</p>
</div><p>And in the March 2023 issue of <em>CEF Insider</em>, we made a contrarian move, picking up the finance-focused <strong>John Hancock Financial Opportunities Fund (BTO)</strong>. By the time we sold a little over a year later, in July 2024, BTO had delivered a tidy 24.1% total return. (We've since re-added the fund to our portfolio.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2023 年 3 月的_CEF Insider_期刊中，我們做出了一個逆向操作，買入了以金融為重點的 <strong>John Hancock Financial Opportunities Fund (BTO)</strong>。到我們在 2024 年 7 月賣出時，BTO 已經帶來了 24.1% 的可觀總回報。（此後我們又將該基金重新加入了我們的投資組合。）</p>
</div><p>The fund also yielded 8.4% when we bought and has been steadily growing the payout for the last 15 years (the fund yields 7.7% today, due to the gain in its share price):</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該基金在我們購買時的收益率為 8.4%，並在過去 15 年中穩步增長分紅（由於其股價上漲，該基金今天的收益率為 7.7%）：</p>
</div><p><strong>BTO's High, and Growing, Payout</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>BTO 的高額且不斷增長的分紅</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Dividend.png" alt="" original-src="https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Dividend.png"/></p>
<p>And now, thanks to this year's volatility, we have an opportunity to buy BTO at a bargain:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，得益於今年的波動性，我們有機會以低價購買 BTO：</p>
</div><p><strong>BTO Flips From a Premium to a Discount</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>BTO 從溢價轉為折扣</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Discount.png" alt="" original-src="https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Discount.png"/></p>
<p>In fact, over the last decade, BTO has had a 3.7% average <em>premium</em> to its net asset value, making this discount to net asset value (NAV) bigger than it looks. Why is this deal in front of us? A hint is in the fund's portfolio:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，在過去十年中，BTO 的淨資產價值平均溢價為 3.7%，使得這一淨資產價值（NAV）的折扣看起來比實際更大。為什麼這個交易會出現在我們面前？線索在於該基金的投資組合：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Holdings.png" alt="" original-src="https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Holdings.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: John Hancock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：John Hancock</em></p>
</div><p>As you can see, BTO is focused on regional banks. <strong>Old National Bancorp (ONB)</strong>, <strong>Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP)</strong>, <strong>Popular (BPOP)</strong> and <strong>Citizens Financial Group (CFG)</strong> are all regional banks that have thrived over the last few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如你所看到的，BTO 專注於地區性銀行。<strong>Old National Bancorp (ONB)</strong>、<strong>Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP)</strong>、<strong>Popular (BPOP)</strong> 和 <strong>Citizens Financial Group (CFG)</strong> 都是在過去幾年中蓬勃發展的地區性銀行。</p>
</div><p>That's driven BTO to strong returns over the long haul, too: 10.7% annualized over the last decade, to be exact. Put another way, every $100,000 invested in BTO in 2016 would be worth around $319,000 as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這也推動了 BTO 在長期內的強勁回報：過去十年年化回報率為 10.7%。換句話説，2016 年投資 BTO 的每 10 萬美元，截至目前大約值 31.9 萬美元。</p>
</div><p>And even following 2008, BTO (shown in green below) performed well:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在 2008 年之後，BTO（如下圖綠色部分所示）表現也很好：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Total-Returns.png" alt="" original-src="https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/BTO-Total-Returns.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: John Hancock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：John Hancock</em></p>
</div><p>In the decade following the Great Recession, BTO turned $100,000 into $267,478. That's a solid positive return, showing that the fund can still deliver profits, even in the wake of the worst financial crisis in a generation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在大衰退後的十年中，BTO 將 10 萬美元變成了 267,478 美元。這是一個穩健的正回報，顯示出該基金即使在一代人中最嚴重的金融危機之後仍能帶來利潤。</p>
</div><p><strong>My Take? This Private-Credit Fiasco Is More Like 2023 Than 2008</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>我的看法？這個私人信貸混亂更像是 2023 年，而不是 2008 年</strong></p>
</div><p>Which brings us back to private credit, and whether stocks are on the verge of a pullback due to poor risk management in this largely opaque market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這讓我們回到了私人信貸，以及股票是否因這一高度不透明市場中的風險管理不善而面臨回調的邊緣。</p>
</div><p>My take? Most likely, this situation is a tempest in a teapot. Consider first of all the wider context: The private-credit market is about one-sixth the size of the total corporate credit market, and the worst estimates point to private credit generally being marked to market at a 20% discount to current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我的看法？很可能，這種情況只是小題大做。首先考慮更廣泛的背景：私人信貸市場約為總企業信貸市場的六分之一，最壞的估計表明，私人信貸通常以當前水平的 20% 折扣進行標記。</p>
</div><p>Second, a diversified fund like BTO is likely to hold up well even in the worst-case scenario: The fund holds 186 assets across a range of banks, insurers and other financial institutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，像 BTO 這樣的多元化基金即使在最壞的情況下也可能表現良好：該基金持有 186 種資產，涵蓋了多家銀行、保險公司和其他金融機構。</p>
</div><p>A rough estimate suggests that a private-credit pullback could translate into only about a 3.3% hit to BTO's NAV. I see that as largely priced in, due to the recent widening of BTO's discount and the fact that this fund has generally traded around a 3.7% premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>粗略估計表明，私人信貸的回調可能僅會對 BTO 的淨資產價值造成約 3.3% 的影響。我認為這在很大程度上已經被定價在內，因為 BTO 的折扣最近擴大，而該基金通常以 3.7% 的溢價交易。</p>
</div><p>These are the two numbers to key in on here, as they suggest BTO--which has performed strongly over the long haul <em>and</em> the short--is ripe for buying, no matter how this all plays out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這兩個數字是這裏需要關注的，因為它們表明 BTO——在長期和短期內表現強勁——無論這一切如何發展，都適合買入。</p>
</div><p><strong>I'm Issuing an Urgent Buy Call on These Four 9.2% Payers, Too</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>我也對這四隻 9.2% 收益的基金髮出緊急買入信號</strong></p>
</div><p>It's not just BTO--the current market turbulence has widened the discounts on plenty of other CEFs, too. And we're doubling down, not just on BTO but on 4 other funds <strong>yielding a rich 9.2% between them</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不僅僅是 BTO——當前市場動盪也擴大了許多其他 CEF 的折扣。我們不僅在 BTO 上加碼，還在另外四隻 <strong>總收益率為 9.2% 的基金</strong> 上加碼。</p>
</div><p>I call them &#34;All-Star&#34; funds for the strong long-term runs they've put up, not to mention those rich 9.2% payouts, two of which come our way <em>monthly</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我稱它們為 “全明星” 基金，因為它們在長期內表現強勁，更不用説那豐厚的 9.2% 分紅，其中兩隻每月支付一次。</p>
</div><p>There's no time to waste if you want to grab these 4 funds before their deep discounts slam shut. <strong>Click here and I'll tell you more about them and give you a free Special Report revealing their names and tickers</strong> <strong>.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你想在這些四隻基金的深度折扣關閉之前抓住機會，就沒有時間可以浪費。<strong>點擊這裏，我會告訴你更多關於它們的信息，並提供一份免費的特別報告，揭示它們的名稱和代碼</strong>。</p>
</div><h5>Also see:</h5>
<div class="lb-trans"><h5>另請參見：</h5>
</div><p> Warren Buffett Dividend Stocks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p> 沃倫·巴菲特的股息股票</p>
</div><p> Dividend Growth Stocks: 25 Aristocrats</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p> 股息增長股票：25 位貴族</p>
</div><p> Future Dividend Aristocrats: Close Contenders</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p> 未來的股息貴族：緊密競爭者</p>
</div><p>The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此處表達的觀點和意見僅代表作者的觀點和意見，並不一定反映納斯達克公司的觀點。</p>
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私人信貸恐慌？這個 7.7% 的股息正是為此而設計的