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<p>印度的石油營銷公司股票在週五市場開盤時可能再次承壓，因為在中東供應中斷的擔憂再次加劇後，油價上漲。</p>
<p>印度石油公司（HPCL）、巴拉特石油公司（BPCL）和印度石油公司（IOC）的股票在週三曾上漲至 2%，當時布倫特和西德克薩斯中間基準油價暴跌。</p>
<p>油價上漲通常會對下游股票施加壓力，因為它們的原材料成本顯著增加。</p>
<p>由於這些公司通常在價格受管制的情況下，有限地將這些成本轉嫁給消費者，因此它們的利潤空間受到擠壓。</p>
<p>它們以更高的價格購買原油進行精煉，然後銷售成品，但如果成品的價格沒有與原油成本成比例地上漲，消費者的成本完全轉嫁受到限制。</p>
<h2>油價再次上漲</h2>
<p>伊朗外長週三表示，儘管德黑蘭仍在審查旨在結束戰爭的美國提議，但該國無意參與解決中東衝突的談判。</p>
<p>伊朗外長的評論在週四引發了布倫特和西德克薩斯中間基準油價的反彈，此前基準油價在前一交易日大幅下跌。</p>
<p>布倫特油價最新為每桶 104.13 美元，上漲 1.9%；而 WTI 上漲 2%，報每桶 92.10 美元。</p>
<p>週三這兩個基準油價一度下跌超過 4%，這對 OMC 股票產生了積極影響。</p>
<p>白宮新聞秘書卡羅琳·萊維特表示，如果德黑蘭不承認其 “在軍事上被擊敗”，美國總統唐納德·特朗普將加大對伊朗的壓力。</p>
<p>據報道，特朗普通過巴基斯坦提出的 15 點提案列出了對伊朗的多項要求。</p>
<p>這些要求包括：移除其高度濃縮的鈾庫存，完全停止鈾濃縮活動，限制其彈道導彈計劃，以及停止對其地區盟友的資金支持。</p>
<p>衝突導致霍爾木茲海峽的運輸幾乎完全中斷，該海峽通常佔全球原油和液化天然氣供應的約 20%。</p>
<p>國際能源署將這一中斷稱為歷史上最嚴重的石油供應中斷。</p>
<h2>OMC 股票持續承壓</h2>
<p>由於美國原油價格上漲和以色列 - 伊朗衝突帶來的不確定性，國際券商瑞銀本月早些時候下調了三隻 OMC 股票的評級。</p>
<p>瑞銀下調了這些股票的目標價格：IOCL 的目標從 190 印度盧比降至 175 印度盧比，BPCL 的目標從 425 印度盧比降至 365 印度盧比，HPCL 的目標從 540 印度盧比降至 340 印度盧比。</p>
<p>瑞銀分析師表示，當前原油價格的上漲和地緣政治緊張局勢正在為印度國有石油營銷公司的盈利帶來不確定性。</p>
<p>這種情況讓人想起 2022 年經歷的石油市場中斷。</p>
<p>依賴燃料營銷的石油公司在精煉利潤高於營銷時面臨挑戰。</p>
<p>這在對營銷利潤率的顯著下調中得到了體現，預計 2026-2027 財年的下調幅度為 43-45%，2028 財年為 22-26%。</p>
<p>從市場角度來看，預計石油精煉商、下游公司和天然氣公司將受到最嚴重的影響。</p>
<p>根據 Elara Securities 的分析，當油價超過每桶 110 美元時，財務緩衝顯著減少。</p>
<p>Elara Securities 最近指出，像 HPCL、BPCL 和印度石油這樣的石油營銷公司面臨最大的脆弱性。</p>
<p>雖然較高的毛煉油利潤率（GRMs）可能提供一些緩解，但它們不太可能完全彌補零售利潤下降和液化石油氣（LPG）損失增加的影響。</p>
<p>分析表明，當布倫特原油價格約為每桶 100 美元時，除非採取如提高燃料價格、減税或增加 LPG 補貼等措施，否則 OMCs 的盈利可能會嚴重下降——下降幅度在 90% 到 190% 之間。</p>
<p>關於油價飆升：印度 OMC 利潤承壓，供應風險的文章首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>

CWPE

西方石油

OILCF

<p>由於對中東供應中斷的擔憂，油價飆升，給印度的石油營銷公司（OMCs）如 HPCL、BPCL 和 IOC 帶來了壓力。這些公司面臨利潤空間被壓縮的局面，因為原油價格上漲增加了投入成本，而它們將這些成本轉嫁給消費者的能力受到監管定價的限制。瑞銀在地緣政治緊張局勢升級的背景下下調了這些 OMCs 的目標價格，預測除非採取如提高燃油價格或補貼等措施，否則將出現顯著的盈利下降。布倫特原油目前的價格為每桶 104.13 美元，WTI 為 92.10 美元</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Oil-pumpjack-in-a-field.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Oil-pumpjack-in-a-field.png"/></p>
<p>Shares of oil marketing companies in India are likely to come under pressure again when the market opens on Friday, as oil prices rose after concerns about supply disruptions from the Middle East gained momentum once again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度的石油營銷公司股票在週五市場開盤時可能再次承壓，因為在中東供應中斷的擔憂再次加劇後，油價上漲。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC) had gained up to 2% on Wednesday when Brent and West Texas Intermediate prices tumbled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度石油公司（HPCL）、巴拉特石油公司（BPCL）和印度石油公司（IOC）的股票在週三曾上漲至 2%，當時布倫特和西德克薩斯中間基準油價暴跌。</p>
</div><p>Rising oil prices typically put pressure on downstream stocks because their input costs increase significantly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油價上漲通常會對下游股票施加壓力，因為它們的原材料成本顯著增加。</p>
</div><p>Since these companies often have limited ability to pass these costs on, usually due to regulated pricing, their margins are squeezed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於這些公司通常在價格受管制的情況下，有限地將這些成本轉嫁給消費者，因此它們的利潤空間受到擠壓。</p>
</div><p>They purchase crude at higher prices for refining and then sell the finished products, but if the prices of the end products do not rise proportionally with the cost of crude, a full cost pass-through to consumers is restricted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它們以更高的價格購買原油進行精煉，然後銷售成品，但如果成品的價格沒有與原油成本成比例地上漲，消費者的成本完全轉嫁受到限制。</p>
</div><h2>Oil prices rise again</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>油價再次上漲</h2>
</div><p>Iran's foreign minister stated on Wednesday that while Tehran is still reviewing a US proposal aimed at ending the war, the nation has no intention of engaging in talks to resolve the Middle East conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗外長週三表示，儘管德黑蘭仍在審查旨在結束戰爭的美國提議，但該國無意參與解決中東衝突的談判。</p>
</div><p>The comments by Iran’s foreign minister sparked a rally on Thursday in Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude prices after the benchmarks had fallen sharply in the previous session.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗外長的評論在週四引發了布倫特和西德克薩斯中間基準油價的反彈，此前基準油價在前一交易日大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>The price of Brent was last at $104.13 per barrel, up 1.9%, while WTI was up 2% at $92.10 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布倫特油價最新為每桶 104.13 美元，上漲 1.9%；而 WTI 上漲 2%，報每桶 92.10 美元。</p>
</div><p>Both benchmarks had slumped more than 4% at one point on Wednesday, which aided the OMC stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週三這兩個基準油價一度下跌超過 4%，這對 OMC 股票產生了積極影響。</p>
</div><p>White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that US President Donald Trump would intensify pressure on Iran if Tehran does not concede that it has been &#34;defeated militarily.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白宮新聞秘書卡羅琳·萊維特表示，如果德黑蘭不承認其 “在軍事上被擊敗”，美國總統唐納德·特朗普將加大對伊朗的壓力。</p>
</div><p>According to reports, the 15-point proposal presented by Trump via Pakistan outlines several demands for Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>據報道，特朗普通過巴基斯坦提出的 15 點提案列出了對伊朗的多項要求。</p>
</div><p>These include the removal of its highly enriched uranium stockpiles, a complete stop to enrichment activities, restrictions on its ballistic missile program, and the cessation of funding for its regional allies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些要求包括：移除其高度濃縮的鈾庫存，完全停止鈾濃縮活動，限制其彈道導彈計劃，以及停止對其地區盟友的資金支持。</p>
</div><p>The conflict has led to a near-total cessation of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that normally accounts for approximately 20% of the global crude oil and liquefied natural gas supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>衝突導致霍爾木茲海峽的運輸幾乎完全中斷，該海峽通常佔全球原油和液化天然氣供應的約 20%。</p>
</div><p>This disruption has been labeled by the International Energy Agency as the most significant oil supply interruption in history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國際能源署將這一中斷稱為歷史上最嚴重的石油供應中斷。</p>
</div><h2>OMC stocks remain under pressure</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>OMC 股票持續承壓</h2>
</div><p>Mounting uncertainty stemming from rising crude oil prices in the US, Israel-Iran conflict led international brokerage firm UBS to downgrade three OMC stocks earlier this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於美國原油價格上漲和以色列 - 伊朗衝突帶來的不確定性，國際券商瑞銀本月早些時候下調了三隻 OMC 股票的評級。</p>
</div><p>UBS revised its target prices for the counters: IOCL's target was lowered to INR 175 from INR 190, BPCL's to INR 365 from INR 425, and HPCL's to INR 340 from INR 540.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞銀下調了這些股票的目標價格：IOCL 的目標從 190 印度盧比降至 175 印度盧比，BPCL 的目標從 425 印度盧比降至 365 印度盧比，HPCL 的目標從 540 印度盧比降至 340 印度盧比。</p>
</div><p>According to UBS analysts, the current rise in crude prices and escalating geopolitical tensions are creating uncertainty for the earnings of Indian state-owned oil marketing companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞銀分析師表示，當前原油價格的上漲和地緣政治緊張局勢正在為印度國有石油營銷公司的盈利帶來不確定性。</p>
</div><p>This situation is reminiscent of the oil market disruption experienced in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種情況讓人想起 2022 年經歷的石油市場中斷。</p>
</div><p>Oil companies that rely heavily on fuel marketing face challenges when refining becomes more profitable than marketing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>依賴燃料營銷的石油公司在精煉利潤高於營銷時面臨挑戰。</p>
</div><p>This is evident in the substantial cuts to marketing margin estimates, which have been reduced by 43-45% for the financial year 2026-2027 (April-March) and 22-26% for FY28.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這在對營銷利潤率的顯著下調中得到了體現，預計 2026-2027 財年的下調幅度為 43-45%，2028 財年為 22-26%。</p>
</div><p>Market-wise, oil refiners, downstream firms, and gas companies are anticipated to be the most affected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從市場角度來看，預計石油精煉商、下游公司和天然氣公司將受到最嚴重的影響。</p>
</div><p>According to Elara Securities, the financial cushion significantly diminishes when oil prices exceed $110 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Elara Securities 的分析，當油價超過每桶 110 美元時，財務緩衝顯著減少。</p>
</div><p>Elara Securities recently noted that oil marketing companies (OMCs) like HPCL, BPCL, and Indian Oil face the greatest vulnerability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Elara Securities 最近指出，像 HPCL、BPCL 和印度石油這樣的石油營銷公司面臨最大的脆弱性。</p>
</div><p>While higher gross refining margins (GRMs) could provide some mitigation, they are unlikely to fully compensate for the impact of diminished retail margins and increasing losses on LPG.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然較高的毛煉油利潤率（GRMs）可能提供一些緩解，但它們不太可能完全彌補零售利潤下降和液化石油氣（LPG）損失增加的影響。</p>
</div><p>The analysis indicated that with Brent crude at approximately $100 per barrel, OMCs' earnings could plummet severely—by 90% to 190%—unless measures such as a fuel price increase, tax reductions, or enhanced LPG subsidies are implemented.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析表明，當布倫特原油價格約為每桶 100 美元時，除非採取如提高燃料價格、減税或增加 LPG 補貼等措施，否則 OMCs 的盈利可能會嚴重下降——下降幅度在 90% 到 190% 之間。</p>
</div><p>The post Oil prices surge: Indian OMC margins under pressure amid supply risks appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於油價飆升：印度 OMC 利潤承壓，供應風險的文章首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>
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Oil prices surge: Indian OMC margins under pressure amid supply risks

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油價飆升：在供應風險的背景下，印度石油營銷公司的利潤率承受壓力