<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Oil-tankers-navigating-sunlit-waterway.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Oil-tankers-navigating-sunlit-waterway.png"/></p>
<p>自二月底以來，中東衝突導致全球航空燃料價格創下歷史新高。</p>
<p>由於伊朗戰爭持續了一個多月，能源市場經歷了相當大的動盪。</p>
<p>自三月初以來，布倫特原油價格上漲了創紀錄的 64%，這是一個月內最大的漲幅。</p>
<h2>價格飆升與精煉燃料價差擴大</h2>
<p>由於中東衝突，柴油和航空燃料等石油產品的價格上漲得更加迅猛，這場衝突實際上關閉了霍爾木茲海峽。</p>
<p>霍爾木茲海峽負責全球 20% 的石油和液化天然氣貿易流動。</p>
<p>鹿特丹的航空燃料價格達到了前所未有的高點，超過每噸 1,730 美元。</p>
<p>這一價格點表明，自戰爭開始以來，航空燃料的成本已翻了一番，而柴油的價格在同一時期幾乎翻倍。</p>
<p>根據 S&amp;P Global Energy 旗下的 Platts 的評估，3 月 30 日，北歐 CIF 航空燃料貨物價格為每噸 1,765 美元。</p>
<p>這一數字是衝突前價格水平的兩倍，顯著超過 2022 年的峯值 1,475 美元每噸。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，3 月 19 日的最高記錄價格為每噸 1,774 美元，距衝突開始三週後。</p>
<p>原油價格的顯著上漲伴隨着裂解價差的明顯擴大，裂解價差是精煉油產品與原油之間的價格差異。</p>
<p>精煉燃料的裂解價差出現了劇烈上漲。柴油裂解價差達到了每桶 56 美元，柴油裂解價差更高，接近每桶 80 美元，而航空燃料裂解價差超過每桶 100 美元。</p>
<p>相比之下，這些價差在戰爭開始前的二月份顯著較低，介於每桶 20 到 30 美元之間。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/image-1-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/image-1-2.png"/></p>
<p>來源：德國商業銀行研究</p>
<h2>全球供應短缺與價格預測修正</h2>
<p>石油產品絕對和相對價格的顯著上漲源於伊朗衝突造成的供應短缺，以及隨之而來的霍爾木茲海峽關閉。</p>
<p>根據國際能源署的估計，去年中東每天出口約 330 萬桶精煉石油產品。</p>
<p>中間餾分佔中東石油產品出口的三分之一。</p>
<p>國際能源署的月度報告指出，去年的總量包括每天 38 萬桶航空燃料和 73 萬桶柴油。</p>
<p>歐洲是來自海灣地區航空燃料出口的主要目的地。國際能源署的數據表明，去年對歐洲的供應達到了每天 28 萬桶，滿足了該大陸 60% 的總進口需求。</p>
<p>其他大部分供應來自亞洲。然而，該地區現在也面臨短缺，正如中國所示，已經導致出口限制。</p>
<p>德國商業銀行已上調航空燃料價格預測，原因是中東衝突仍在繼續。</p>
<p>預計到年中，航空燃料價格將達到每噸 1,250 美元，年底將下降至每噸 950 美元。</p>
<p>“在我們的基本情景中，我們假設戰爭將在春末結束，因此預計價格會再次下降，但柴油和航空燃料價格在年底仍將顯著高於戰爭開始前的水平，” 德國商業銀行分析師表示。</p>
<p>與此同時，為了應對油價的急劇上漲，全球航空公司已開始提高票價並減少運力。</p>
<p>然而，行業的持續盈利能力可能取決於消費者是否會因汽油價格上漲而減少航空旅行，這對家庭預算造成壓力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/image-1-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/image-1-3.png"/></p>
<p>來源：德國商業銀行研究</p>
<h2>航空公司應對燃料成本</h2>
<p>根據路透社的報道，航空業預計 2026 年將創下 410 億美元的利潤，現在面臨風險。</p>
<p>這一變化發生在上個月美國與以色列與伊朗的衝突之後，導致航空燃料價格翻倍，迫使航空公司重新評估其戰略和網絡。</p>
<p>包括聯合航空、新西蘭航空和斯堪的納維亞航空在內的幾家航空公司已通過實施運力削減和提高票價來應對當前形勢；其他航空公司則選擇徵收燃油附加費。</p>
<p>儘管持續的供應鏈挑戰影響了新飛機的交付，但該行業在 2025 年實現了全球乘客流量的創紀錄增長。這一流量顯著反彈，達到了疫情前水平的約 9%。</p>
<p>航空公司享有顯著的定價權，填滿了更多的座位，並利用了創紀錄的疫情後旅行需求與持續的供應鏈問題的結合，這限制了運力增長。</p>
<p>然而，為了抵消航空燃料成本的急劇上漲，所需的價格上漲幅度是相當大的。這正值消費者已經面臨更高汽油價格的艱難時刻，可能被迫減少可自由支配的支出，從而可能抑制近期航空旅行的增長。</p>
<p>與此同時，3 月 31 日，美國總統唐納德·特朗普在他的 TruthSocial 賬户上發文，呼籲面臨航空燃料供應問題的國家向美國煉油商購買，或者選擇 “直接從中東灣拿走”。</p>
<p>“所有那些因為霍爾木茲海峽無法獲得航空燃料的國家，比如拒絕參與伊朗斬首行動的英國，我有個建議：第一，向美國購買，我們有很多；第二，鼓起一些勇氣，去霍爾木茲海峽，直接拿走，” 特朗普説道。</p>
<p>在 2025 年，美國是歐洲市場精煉產品的主要來源。然而，S&amp;P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS) 的數據顯示，美國在航空燃料供應商中排名顯著較低，整體排名第七。</p>
<p>具體而言，美國煉油廠去年向歐洲出口了大約 16,000 桶/天的航空燃料，佔該大陸航空燃料總流入量的約 3%。</p>
<p>根據 S&amp;P Global Energy CERA 的分析師數據，2025 年，美國是航空燃料的淨出口國，出口量約比進口量多出 70,000 桶/天。加勒比地區是這些出口的主要接收方，送往歐洲的數量相對較少。</p>
<p>根據 CAS 數據，2025 年，英國是美國航空燃料的最大買家，佔所有交付量的近 70%。緊隨其後的是荷蘭，西班牙和冰島也位列主要買家之中。</p>
<p>中東衝突後，航空燃料價格翻倍；全球航空公司利潤縮水，首發於 Invezz。</p>

中國國航

南方航空

達美航空

<p>中東持續的衝突導致全球航空燃料價格創下新高，自三月以來布倫特原油上漲了 64%。鹿特丹的航空燃料價格已超過每噸 1,730 美元，是戰爭前水平的兩倍多。衝突擾亂了供應，特別是霍爾木茲海峽的運輸，影響了全球石油貿易。航空公司因此提高票價並減少運力，危及預期利潤。德國商業銀行預測，到年中航空燃料價格將達到每噸 1,250 美元，年末可能會有所下降，但仍高於衝突前的水平</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Oil-tankers-navigating-sunlit-waterway.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Oil-tankers-navigating-sunlit-waterway.png"/></p>
<p>The Middle East conflict that started in late February has led to a record jump in global jet fuel prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自二月底以來，中東衝突導致全球航空燃料價格創下歷史新高。</p>
</div><p>The energy markets have experienced considerable disruption due to the war in Iran, which has been in progress for more than a month now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於伊朗戰爭持續了一個多月，能源市場經歷了相當大的動盪。</p>
</div><p>The price of Brent crude rose by a record 64% since the beginning of March, its biggest gain in a month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自三月初以來，布倫特原油價格上漲了創紀錄的 64%，這是一個月內最大的漲幅。</p>
</div><h2>Record price surge and widening refined fuel spreads</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>價格飆升與精煉燃料價差擴大</h2>
</div><p>Prices for oil products such as diesel and jet fuel have risen even more sharply due to the conflict in the Middle East, which has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於中東衝突，柴油和航空燃料等石油產品的價格上漲得更加迅猛，這場衝突實際上關閉了霍爾木茲海峽。</p>
</div><p>The Strait is responsible for 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas trade flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍爾木茲海峽負責全球 20% 的石油和液化天然氣貿易流動。</p>
</div><p>The price of jet fuel in Rotterdam reached an unprecedented high, exceeding $1,730 per ton.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鹿特丹的航空燃料價格達到了前所未有的高點，超過每噸 1,730 美元。</p>
</div><p>This price point signifies that the cost of jet fuel has more than doubled since the war began, whereas the price of diesel has nearly doubled over the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一價格點表明，自戰爭開始以來，航空燃料的成本已翻了一番，而柴油的價格在同一時期幾乎翻倍。</p>
</div><p>CIF Northwest European jet fuel cargo prices were assessed by Platts, a division of S&amp;P Global Energy, at $1,765 per ton on March 30.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 S&amp;P Global Energy 旗下的 Platts 的評估，3 月 30 日，北歐 CIF 航空燃料貨物價格為每噸 1,765 美元。</p>
</div><p>This figure is more than double the price levels seen before the conflict and significantly exceeds the 2022 peak of $1,475 per ton.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一數字是衝突前價格水平的兩倍，顯著超過 2022 年的峯值 1,475 美元每噸。</p>
</div><p>Notably, the highest recorded price was $1,774 per ton on March 19, which was three weeks after the conflict began.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，3 月 19 日的最高記錄價格為每噸 1,774 美元，距衝突開始三週後。</p>
</div><p>The significant increase in crude oil prices was accompanied by a marked widening of crack spreads, which are the price differentials between refined oil products and crude oil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油價格的顯著上漲伴隨着裂解價差的明顯擴大，裂解價差是精煉油產品與原油之間的價格差異。</p>
</div><p>The crack spreads for refined fuels saw a dramatic surge. The gasoil crack spread peaked at $56 per barrel. The diesel crack spread climbed even higher, reaching almost $80 per barrel, while the jet fuel crack spread exceeded $100 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>精煉燃料的裂解價差出現了劇烈上漲。柴油裂解價差達到了每桶 56 美元，柴油裂解價差更高，接近每桶 80 美元，而航空燃料裂解價差超過每桶 100 美元。</p>
</div><p>For comparison, these spreads were significantly lower—between $20 and $30 per barrel—in February, before the war started.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，這些價差在戰爭開始前的二月份顯著較低，介於每桶 20 到 30 美元之間。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/image-1-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/image-1-2.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Commerzbank Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：德國商業銀行研究</p>
</div><h2>Global supply deficit and revised price forecasts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>全球供應短缺與價格預測修正</h2>
</div><p>The significant increase in both the absolute and relative prices of oil products stems from the supply deficit created by the conflict in Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>石油產品絕對和相對價格的顯著上漲源於伊朗衝突造成的供應短缺，以及隨之而來的霍爾木茲海峽關閉。</p>
</div><p>Last year, the Middle East exported approximately 3.3 million barrels of refined oil products daily, based on estimates from the International Energy Agency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據國際能源署的估計，去年中東每天出口約 330 萬桶精煉石油產品。</p>
</div><p>Middle distillates account for another third of oil product exports from the Middle East.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中間餾分佔中東石油產品出口的三分之一。</p>
</div><p>The IEA's monthly report indicated that last year's total included 380,000 barrels per day of jet fuel and 730,000 barrels per day of gasoil/diesel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國際能源署的月度報告指出，去年的總量包括每天 38 萬桶航空燃料和 73 萬桶柴油。</p>
</div><p>Europe was the primary destination for jet fuel exports from the Gulf. Data from the IEA indicated that last year, supplies to Europe reached 280,000 barrels per day, satisfying 60% of the continent's total import needs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐洲是來自海灣地區航空燃料出口的主要目的地。國際能源署的數據表明，去年對歐洲的供應達到了每天 28 萬桶，滿足了該大陸 60% 的總進口需求。</p>
</div><p>Most of the other supplies were sourced from Asia. However, this region is now also experiencing shortages, which, as demonstrated in China, have already led to export restrictions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他大部分供應來自亞洲。然而，該地區現在也面臨短缺，正如中國所示，已經導致出口限制。</p>
</div><p>Commerzbank AG has raised the forecast for jet fuel prices upwards due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德國商業銀行已上調航空燃料價格預測，原因是中東衝突仍在繼續。</p>
</div><p>Jet fuel is projected to cost $1,250 per ton by mid-year, with a subsequent decrease to $950 per ton by year-end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計到年中，航空燃料價格將達到每噸 1,250 美元，年底將下降至每噸 950 美元。</p>
</div><p>“In our base-case scenario, in which we assume the war will end in late spring and therefore expect prices to fall again, diesel and jet fuel prices would still be significantly higher at the end of the year than they were before the war began,” Commerzbank analysts said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在我們的基本情景中，我們假設戰爭將在春末結束，因此預計價格會再次下降，但柴油和航空燃料價格在年底仍將顯著高於戰爭開始前的水平，” 德國商業銀行分析師表示。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, to counter the abrupt rise in oil prices, airlines worldwide have started raising fares and reducing capacity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，為了應對油價的急劇上漲，全球航空公司已開始提高票價並減少運力。</p>
</div><p>However, the industry's continued profitability may hinge on whether consumers reduce air travel in response to rising gasoline costs that are squeezing household budgets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，行業的持續盈利能力可能取決於消費者是否會因汽油價格上漲而減少航空旅行，這對家庭預算造成壓力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/image-1-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/image-1-3.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Commerzbank Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：德國商業銀行研究</p>
</div><h2>Airlines respond to fuel costs</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>航空公司應對燃料成本</h2>
</div><p>The airline industry's projection of record $41 billion profits for 2026 is now jeopardised, according to a Reuters report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據路透社的報道，航空業預計 2026 年將創下 410 億美元的利潤，現在面臨風險。</p>
</div><p>This shift follows the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which began last month and caused jet fuel prices to double, compelling carriers to reassess their strategies and networks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一變化發生在上個月美國與以色列與伊朗的衝突之後，導致航空燃料價格翻倍，迫使航空公司重新評估其戰略和網絡。</p>
</div><p>Several carriers, including United Airlines, Air New Zealand, and Scandinavia's SAS, have responded to current conditions by implementing capacity reductions and raising fares; other airlines have opted to impose fuel surcharges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>包括聯合航空、新西蘭航空和斯堪的納維亞航空在內的幾家航空公司已通過實施運力削減和提高票價來應對當前形勢；其他航空公司則選擇徵收燃油附加費。</p>
</div><p>Despite persistent supply-chain challenges that impacted new plane deliveries, the industry achieved a record-breaking year for global passenger traffic in 2025. This traffic rebounded significantly, reaching approximately 9% above pre-pandemic levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管持續的供應鏈挑戰影響了新飛機的交付，但該行業在 2025 年實現了全球乘客流量的創紀錄增長。這一流量顯著反彈，達到了疫情前水平的約 9%。</p>
</div><p>Airlines have enjoyed significant pricing power, filling more seats and capitalising on a combination of record post-pandemic travel demand and persistent supply-chain issues that limited capacity growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>航空公司享有顯著的定價權，填滿了更多的座位，並利用了創紀錄的疫情後旅行需求與持續的供應鏈問題的結合，這限制了運力增長。</p>
</div><p>However, the required price increases to offset the sharp surge in jet fuel costs are substantial. This comes at a challenging time, as consumers, already facing higher gasoline prices, may be forced to reduce discretionary spending, potentially curbing the recent growth in air travel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，為了抵消航空燃料成本的急劇上漲，所需的價格上漲幅度是相當大的。這正值消費者已經面臨更高汽油價格的艱難時刻，可能被迫減少可自由支配的支出，從而可能抑制近期航空旅行的增長。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, on March 31, US President Donald Trump posted on his TruthSocial account, urging nations experiencing jet fuel supply issues to purchase from American refiners or, alternatively, to &#34;just take it&#34; from the Middle East Gulf.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，3 月 31 日，美國總統唐納德·特朗普在他的 TruthSocial 賬户上發文，呼籲面臨航空燃料供應問題的國家向美國煉油商購買，或者選擇 “直接從中東灣拿走”。</p>
</div><p>&#34;All of those countries that can't get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the US, we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT,&#34; Trump said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“所有那些因為霍爾木茲海峽無法獲得航空燃料的國家，比如拒絕參與伊朗斬首行動的英國，我有個建議：第一，向美國購買，我們有很多；第二，鼓起一些勇氣，去霍爾木茲海峽，直接拿走，” 特朗普説道。</p>
</div><p>In 2025, the US was the top source of refined products for the European market. However, S&amp;P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS) data indicated that the US ranked significantly lower, seventh overall, as a supplier of jet fuel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，美國是歐洲市場精煉產品的主要來源。然而，S&amp;P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS) 的數據顯示，美國在航空燃料供應商中排名顯著較低，整體排名第七。</p>
</div><p>Specifically, US refineries exported approximately 16,000 barrels per day of jet fuel to Europe last year, which represented about 3% of the total jet fuel inflows to the continent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>具體而言，美國煉油廠去年向歐洲出口了大約 16,000 桶/天的航空燃料，佔該大陸航空燃料總流入量的約 3%。</p>
</div><p>In 2025, the US was a net exporter of jet fuel, shipping out approximately 70,000 barrels per day more than it imported, according to analysts at S&amp;P Global Energy CERA. The Caribbean was the primary recipient of these exports, with only comparatively small volumes being sent to Europe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 S&amp;P Global Energy CERA 的分析師數據，2025 年，美國是航空燃料的淨出口國，出口量約比進口量多出 70,000 桶/天。加勒比地區是這些出口的主要接收方，送往歐洲的數量相對較少。</p>
</div><p>The UK was the largest purchaser of US jet fuel in 2025, according to CAS data, representing nearly 70% of all delivered volumes. Following the UK, the Netherlands was the second-biggest buyer, with Spain and Iceland also ranking among the top purchasers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 CAS 數據，2025 年，英國是美國航空燃料的最大買家，佔所有交付量的近 70%。緊隨其後的是荷蘭，西班牙和冰島也位列主要買家之中。</p>
</div><p>The post Mideast conflict doubles jet fuel prices; global airlines see profits shrink appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中東衝突後，航空燃料價格翻倍；全球航空公司利潤縮水，首發於 Invezz。</p>
</div>

Mideast conflict doubles jet fuel prices; global airlines see profits shrink

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中東地區的衝突使得噴氣燃料價格翻倍，全球航空公司的利潤因此縮減