<p>由於美國勞動力市場的強勁數據促使交易員減少對美聯儲今年降息的押注，國債收益率下跌。</p>
<p>週五縮短的交易時段內，收益率上升了三到五個基點，以政策敏感的兩年期國債為首。交易員們抹去了對美聯儲今年降息的最後押注，在報告發布前，他們僅預計約四個基點的降息。</p>
<p>TJM Institutional Services LLC 的利率策略師表示：“美聯儲在 6 月之前，甚至更長時間內保持不變的可能性越來越大。這是衝突前的數據，但無論如何顯示出更高的基線。”</p>
<p>最新的就業報告顯示，3 月份美國就業市場呈現出積極的局面，失業率意外下降。</p>
<p>但在 31 萬億美元的國債市場中，焦點仍然集中在中東的衝突上。債券投資者在與戰爭驅動的能源價格飆升相關的增長和通脹擔憂之間左右為難。</p>
<p>自 2 月底美國對伊朗發動攻擊以來，收益率大致跟隨油價的上漲，因為人們對潛在的通脹復甦可能導致美聯儲推遲任何降息的風險感到擔憂。</p>
<p>在復活節假期前，油市交易在週五關閉，三艘廣播阿曼所有權的油輪似乎通過緊貼其本國海岸線的方式出現在霍爾木茲海峽。</p>
<p>在 2 月 28 日戰爭開始之前，隔夜指數掉期已定價超過兩次 25 個基點的降息預期。這些預期隨後被抹去，交易員們開始定價美聯儲下一步可能是加息。最近，市場預計美聯儲將在 2026 年保持不變。</p>
<p>美國中央銀行去年因就業市場疲軟三次降息。它們在 1 月份暫停了降息，理由是該領域有所改善。自那時以來，美國勞工部 1 月份的月度就業報告強於預期，而 2 月份的數據則顯示出疲軟。</p>
<p>3 月份的報告——顯示非農就業人數增長幅度為 2024 年底以來最大——不太可能對美國政策制定者產生重大影響，Jefferies 的首席美國經濟學家在給客户的報告中寫道。</p>
<p>他寫道：“這些數據大多是向後的，可能沒有考慮到最近能源價格上漲的影響，或與伊朗戰爭相關的其他風險。就目前而言，沒有任何跡象表明他們需要儘快採取行動。”</p>
<p>在數據發佈後，美元對主要貨幣上漲，隨後在美國收益率從會話高點回落時削減了漲幅。</p>
<p>最近在國債中積累的空頭頭寸在最近的交易中被稀釋，交易員們對短期通脹壓力帶來的增長衝擊進行對沖。在國債期權中，交易員們在週末前對收益率下跌的保護需求增加，因為他們準備在週一現金市場重新開放時可能出現的下跌缺口。</p>
<p>在就業報告發布前，摩根大通的利率策略師在 3 月 20 日建議以 3.891% 的利率購買兩年期國債，以防強勁數據削弱對美聯儲今年降息的預期。</p>
<p>週五，二年期國債收益率上升了五個基點，達到 3.85%，而十年期證券的收益率上升至 4.35%，交易定於紐約時間中午 12 點結束。</p>
<p>Brean Capital LLC 的固定收益策略負責人表示：“這應該減輕人們對油價衝擊前勞動力市場基本狀況的擔憂。之前的通脹擔憂使市場收益率上升至美聯儲保持不變的新預期，而這些數據 ‘重申了這一觀點’。”</p>
<p>然而，他表示，關於油價衝擊在未來幾個月將對經濟產生多大影響仍然存在不確定性。“一切都變得更貴，收入的增長速度並不像以前那樣。”</p>

彭博美元指數 做多 - WisdomTree

20 年期以上美國國債 ETF - iShares

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美國中期國債 ETF - iShares

美國短期國債指數 ETF - iShares

<p>美國國債下跌，因為強勁的勞動力市場數據導致交易員降低了對美聯儲今年降息的預期。收益率上升了三到五個基點，尤其是兩年期國債。就業報告顯示失業率下降，但由於油價上漲和地緣政治緊張局勢，通脹的擔憂依然存在。分析師建議美聯儲可能會在 6 月之前維持利率不變，市場預期也轉向可能的加息而非降息。美元最初上漲，但隨着收益率波動，隨後回落</p>

<p>Treasuries fell as a solid reading of the US labor market prompted traders to reduce bets the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於美國勞動力市場的強勁數據促使交易員減少對美聯儲今年降息的押注，國債收益率下跌。</p>
</div><p>The decline in Friday’s shortened trading session pushed yields higher by three to five basis points, led by the policy-sensitive two-year. Traders erased what remained of their bets on Fed easing this year, having priced in only about four basis points before the report, and trimmed wagers on a cut next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五縮短的交易時段內，收益率上升了三到五個基點，以政策敏感的兩年期國債為首。交易員們抹去了對美聯儲今年降息的最後押注，在報告發布前，他們僅預計約四個基點的降息。</p>
</div><p>The Fed is “increasingly likely to be on hold through June, perhaps further,” said , an interest-rate strategist at TJM Institutional Services LLC. “This is pre-conflict data, but nevertheless shows a higher base line.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TJM Institutional Services LLC 的利率策略師表示：“美聯儲在 6 月之前，甚至更長時間內保持不變的可能性越來越大。這是衝突前的數據，但無論如何顯示出更高的基線。”</p>
</div><p>The latest employment report offered a positive picture of the US employment market in March, showing an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新的就業報告顯示，3 月份美國就業市場呈現出積極的局面，失業率意外下降。</p>
</div><p>But focus in the $31 trillion Treasuries market remains on the conflict in the Middle East. Bond investors have been torn between growth and inflation concerns tied to the war-driven surge in energy prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在 31 萬億美元的國債市場中，焦點仍然集中在中東的衝突上。債券投資者在與戰爭驅動的能源價格飆升相關的增長和通脹擔憂之間左右為難。</p>
</div><p>Yields have largely been tracking an upswing in oil prices since the US attacked Iran in late February as angst grew around the risk that a potential resurgence of inflation would cause the Fed to delay any rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2 月底美國對伊朗發動攻擊以來，收益率大致跟隨油價的上漲，因為人們對潛在的通脹復甦可能導致美聯儲推遲任何降息的風險感到擔憂。</p>
</div><p>With oil-market trading closed on Friday ahead of the Easter holiday, three tankers broadcasting Omani ownership appeared to have the Strait of Hormuz by hugging their home country’s coastline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在復活節假期前，油市交易在週五關閉，三艘廣播阿曼所有權的油輪似乎通過緊貼其本國海岸線的方式出現在霍爾木茲海峽。</p>
</div><p>Before the war started on Feb. 28, overnight index swaps had priced in more than two quarter-point rate cuts this year. Those expectations were subsequently erased, and traders began to price in the chance that the Fed’s next move would be a rate increase. More recently, the market expects the Fed to stay on hold in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2 月 28 日戰爭開始之前，隔夜指數掉期已定價超過兩次 25 個基點的降息預期。這些預期隨後被抹去，交易員們開始定價美聯儲下一步可能是加息。最近，市場預計美聯儲將在 2026 年保持不變。</p>
</div><p>The US central bank cut interest rates three times last year in response to weakness in the job market. They paused the cuts in January, citing improvement on that front. Since then, the US Labor Department’s monthly jobs report for January was stronger than anticipated, while February data showed weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國中央銀行去年因就業市場疲軟三次降息。它們在 1 月份暫停了降息，理由是該領域有所改善。自那時以來，美國勞工部 1 月份的月度就業報告強於預期，而 2 月份的數據則顯示出疲軟。</p>
</div><p>The March report — which showed nonfarm payrolls rose by the most since the end of 2024 — is unlikely to change much for US policymakers, , chief US economist at Jefferies, wrote in a note to clients.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3 月份的報告——顯示非農就業人數增長幅度為 2024 年底以來最大——不太可能對美國政策制定者產生重大影響，Jefferies 的首席美國經濟學家在給客户的報告中寫道。</p>
</div><p>“The data is mostly backward looking, and likely does not incorporate any impact from the recent rise in energy prices, or other risks related to the war in Iran,” he wrote. “For now, there is nothing here that suggests they need to act soon.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他寫道：“這些數據大多是向後的，可能沒有考慮到最近能源價格上漲的影響，或與伊朗戰爭相關的其他風險。就目前而言，沒有任何跡象表明他們需要儘快採取行動。”</p>
</div><p>The dollar rose against major peers after the data, then pared its moves as US yields retreated from their session highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在數據發佈後，美元對主要貨幣上漲，隨後在美國收益率從會話高點回落時削減了漲幅。</p>
</div><p>A pileup of short positions that had recently built into Treasuries has been diluted over recent sessions as traders hedge against growth shocks from short-term inflationary pressures. In Treasury options, there has been demand for protection against a decline in yields heading into the weekend as traders prepare for a potential gap lower when the cash market reopens on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近在國債中積累的空頭頭寸在最近的交易中被稀釋，交易員們對短期通脹壓力帶來的增長衝擊進行對沖。在國債期權中，交易員們在週末前對收益率下跌的保護需求增加，因為他們準備在週一現金市場重新開放時可能出現的下跌缺口。</p>
</div><p>Ahead of the employment report, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. interest-rate strategists on a March 20 recommendation to buy two-year Treasuries at 3.891% in case a strong reading eroded expectations for a Fed rate cut this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在就業報告發布前，摩根大通的利率策略師在 3 月 20 日建議以 3.891% 的利率購買兩年期國債，以防強勁數據削弱對美聯儲今年降息的預期。</p>
</div><p>Yields on two-year notes were up five basis points to 3.85%, while those on 10-year securities rose to 4.35% in Friday’s , scheduled to end at 12 p.m. New York time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五，二年期國債收益率上升了五個基點，達到 3.85%，而十年期證券的收益率上升至 4.35%，交易定於紐約時間中午 12 點結束。</p>
</div><p>“This should diminish fears about the underlying state of the labor market prior to the oil shock,” said , head of fixed income strategy at Brean Capital LLC. “Prior inflationary fears reset the market higher in terms of yield to a new expectation for the Fed being on hold,” and the data “reaffirms that view.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Brean Capital LLC 的固定收益策略負責人表示：“這應該減輕人們對油價衝擊前勞動力市場基本狀況的擔憂。之前的通脹擔憂使市場收益率上升至美聯儲保持不變的新預期，而這些數據 ‘重申了這一觀點’。”</p>
</div><p>Uncertainty remains, however, on the the extent the oil shock will flow through the economy in the coming months, he said. “Everything costs more and incomes are not rising the way they did before.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，他表示，關於油價衝擊在未來幾個月將對經濟產生多大影響仍然存在不確定性。“一切都變得更貴，收入的增長速度並不像以前那樣。”</p>
</div>

由於強勁的就業數據削弱了美聯儲降息的預期，美國債券下跌