<p>美國國債收益率在週三下跌，因中東地區的敵對行動暫停兩週，緩解了對新一輪通脹衝擊的擔憂，並吸引投資者重新投資於政府債券。</p>
<p>隨着油價大幅回落，反彈加速，降低了人們對能源成本上升會使美聯儲政策路徑複雜化的擔憂。</p>
<p>截至美國東部時間凌晨 3:35，10 年期國債收益率已下降超過 10 個基點，降至 4.2399%；而兩年期國債下降 11 個基點，至 3.7193%；30 年期國債下降 7 個基點，至 4.8482%。</p>
<p>一個基點等於 0.01%。</p>
<p><strong>債券反彈加速</strong></p>
<p>收益率的下滑表明，投資者正在解除因地區緊張局勢升級而在債券市場中積累的通脹溢價。</p>
<p>當收益率下降時，國債價格上漲，市場情緒的變化表明，隨着油價前景變得不那麼威脅，政府債務的需求重新回升。</p>
<p>此前，債券市場受到壓力，交易員們權衡更廣泛地區衝突可能會擾亂能源流動並保持價格壓力的風險。</p>
<p>週三的走勢標誌着一種逆轉，投資者從跡象中獲得安慰，表明至少在目前，立即的軍事升級可能會被避免。</p>
<p><strong>能源回落緩解通脹擔憂</strong></p>
<p>在特朗普總統表示將推遲對伊朗的軍事行動，同時繼續就霍爾木茲海峽相關條件進行談判後，油價下跌。</p>
<p>該水道至關重要，因為它運輸着全球約五分之一的石油和液化天然氣供應，任何干擾都會直接影響通脹、運輸成本和更廣泛的風險情緒。</p>
<p>這對債券很重要，因為能源一直是中東衝突通過通脹預期傳導的最明顯渠道之一。</p>
<p>隨着原油價格回落，交易員們對最新的油價衝擊可能不足以迫使美聯儲採取更謹慎的立場充滿信心。</p>
<p><strong>關注政策信號</strong></p>
<p>隨着地緣政治壓力的緩解，注意力再次轉向中央銀行的信號和即將發佈的經濟數據。</p>
<p>美聯儲在 3 月的會議上維持基準利率不變，主席鮑威爾承認，儘管增長擔憂依然存在，但更高的油價可能會使通脹前景複雜化。https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html</p>
<p>這使得投資者關注政策制定者如何解讀近期能源市場的波動的任何新指引。</p>
<p>原油的持續下跌可能支持更寬鬆的金融條件，而任何對油價的重新壓力將迅速恢復人們對通脹可能保持頑固的擔憂。</p>
<p>當前的重點是海灣地區的平靜狀況是否能夠維持，以及通過霍爾木茲的航運是否保持穩定。</p>
<p>如果油價保持在一定範圍內，國債收益率可能還有進一步下跌的空間，因為投資者重建通脹風險將緩和的預期。</p>
<p>目前，市場的信息很明確：較低的油價正在幫助債券復甦，利率前景再次更多地受到政策和數據的驅動，而不是對突發能源衝擊的擔憂。</p>

油氣服務 ETF - Market Vectors

能源基礎設施 MLP ETF - GlobalX

煉油公司指數 ETF - VanEck Vectors

<p>美國國債收益率下跌，因為中東停火緩解了通脹擔憂，吸引投資者回歸政府債券。10 年期國債收益率降至 4.2399%，兩年期降至 3.7193%，30 年期降至 4.8482%。由於特朗普總統推遲對伊朗的軍事行動，油價下跌，降低了與能源成本相關的通脹擔憂。隨着地緣政治緊張局勢的緩解，市場關注中央銀行的信號和經濟數據，表明較低的油價可能支持更有利的債券市場前景</p>

<p>US Treasury yields fell on Wednesday as a two-week freeze in hostilities in the Middle East eased concerns about a fresh inflation shock and drew investors back into government bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國國債收益率在週三下跌，因中東地區的敵對行動暫停兩週，緩解了對新一輪通脹衝擊的擔憂，並吸引投資者重新投資於政府債券。</p>
</div><p>The rally gathered pace as oil prices retreated sharply, reducing fears that higher energy costs would complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy path.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着油價大幅回落，反彈加速，降低了人們對能源成本上升會使美聯儲政策路徑複雜化的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>By 3:35 a.m. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note had dropped more than 10 basis points to 4.2399%, while the two-year note fell 11 basis points to 3.7193% and the 30-year bond declined 7 basis points to 4.8482%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至美國東部時間凌晨 3:35，10 年期國債收益率已下降超過 10 個基點，降至 4.2399%；而兩年期國債下降 11 個基點，至 3.7193%；30 年期國債下降 7 個基點，至 4.8482%。</p>
</div><p>One basis point equals 0.01%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個基點等於 0.01%。</p>
</div><p><strong>Bond rally gathers pace</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>債券反彈加速</strong></p>
</div><p>The move lower in yields suggested investors were unwinding some of the inflation premium that had built into the bond market as tensions in the region escalated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>收益率的下滑表明，投資者正在解除因地區緊張局勢升級而在債券市場中積累的通脹溢價。</p>
</div><p>Treasury prices rise when yields fall, and the shift in market tone pointed to renewed demand for government debt as the outlook for oil became less threatening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當收益率下降時，國債價格上漲，市場情緒的變化表明，隨着油價前景變得不那麼威脅，政府債務的需求重新回升。</p>
</div><p>The bond market had been under pressure earlier as traders weighed the risk that a broader regional conflict could disrupt energy flows and keep price pressures elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此前，債券市場受到壓力，交易員們權衡更廣泛地區衝突可能會擾亂能源流動並保持價格壓力的風險。</p>
</div><p>Wednesday’s move marked a reversal, with investors taking comfort from signs that immediate military escalation may be avoided, at least for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週三的走勢標誌着一種逆轉，投資者從跡象中獲得安慰，表明至少在目前，立即的軍事升級可能會被避免。</p>
</div><p><strong>Energy retreat cools inflation fears</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>能源回落緩解通脹擔憂</strong></p>
</div><p>Oil prices dropped after President Donald Trump said he would delay military action against Iran while talks continued over conditions tied to the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特朗普總統表示將推遲對伊朗的軍事行動，同時繼續就霍爾木茲海峽相關條件進行談判後，油價下跌。</p>
</div><p>The waterway is critical because it carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, making any disruption there a direct concern for inflation, transport costs and broader risk sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該水道至關重要，因為它運輸着全球約五分之一的石油和液化天然氣供應，任何干擾都會直接影響通脹、運輸成本和更廣泛的風險情緒。</p>
</div><p>That matters for bonds because energy has been one of the clearest channels through which the Middle East conflict has fed into inflation expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這對債券很重要，因為能源一直是中東衝突通過通脹預期傳導的最明顯渠道之一。</p>
</div><p>As crude prices fell back, traders gained confidence that the latest oil shock may not be severe enough to force a more cautious stance from the Fed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着原油價格回落，交易員們對最新的油價衝擊可能不足以迫使美聯儲採取更謹慎的立場充滿信心。</p>
</div><p><strong>Focus shifts to policy signals</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>關注政策信號</strong></p>
</div><p>With geopolitical stress easing, attention is turning back to central-bank signals and incoming economic data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着地緣政治壓力的緩解，注意力再次轉向中央銀行的信號和即將發佈的經濟數據。</p>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at its March meeting, with Chair Jerome Powell acknowledging that higher oil prices could complicate the inflation outlook even as growth concerns lingered.https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲在 3 月的會議上維持基準利率不變，主席鮑威爾承認，儘管增長擔憂依然存在，但更高的油價可能會使通脹前景複雜化。https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html</p>
</div><p>That leaves investors watching for any fresh guidance on how policymakers are interpreting the recent volatility in energy markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使得投資者關注政策制定者如何解讀近期能源市場的波動的任何新指引。</p>
</div><p>A sustained drop in crude could support the case for easier financial conditions, while any renewed pressure on oil would quickly revive concerns that inflation could remain sticky.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油的持續下跌可能支持更寬鬆的金融條件，而任何對油價的重新壓力將迅速恢復人們對通脹可能保持頑固的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>The immediate focus is whether calmer conditions in the Gulf hold and whether shipping through Hormuz remains stable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前的重點是海灣地區的平靜狀況是否能夠維持，以及通過霍爾木茲的航運是否保持穩定。</p>
</div><p>If oil stays contained, Treasury yields may have room to fall further as investors rebuild expectations that inflation risks will moderate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果油價保持在一定範圍內，國債收益率可能還有進一步下跌的空間，因為投資者重建通脹風險將緩和的預期。</p>
</div><p>For now, the market’s message is straightforward: lower oil is helping bonds recover, and the rates outlook is once again being driven more by policy and data than by fears of an abrupt energy shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，市場的信息很明確：較低的油價正在幫助債券復甦，利率前景再次更多地受到政策和數據的驅動，而不是對突發能源衝擊的擔憂。</p>
</div>

由於中東停火後油價下跌，美國國債收益率下降