<p>隨着交易周的結束，美元/墨西哥比索的價格走勢出現了 <strong>連續四個交易日的下跌趨勢</strong>，短期內下跌幅度超過 <strong>2.7%，有利於墨西哥比索</strong>，使得近期走勢呈現出更為一致的看空偏向。</p>
<p>目前，由於 <strong>美元的疲軟</strong> 以及墨西哥最新的通脹數據未顯示出明顯放緩，反而增強了 <strong>墨西哥銀行採取更激進立場的可能性</strong>，賣壓開始顯現。在這種背景下，美元/墨西哥比索的疲軟在接下來的交易中可能仍然具有相關性。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h2><strong>墨西哥的新通脹數據</strong></h2>
<p>在今天的交易中，墨西哥的年度通脹率公佈為 <strong>3 月 4.59%</strong>，與預期的 4.6% 基本一致，但仍遠高於中央銀行接近 <strong>3.00%</strong> 的目標。</p>
<p>儘管這一數據符合預期，但值得注意的是，通脹在最近幾個月顯示出 <strong>持續上升的趨勢</strong>，從 12 月的約 3.69% 上升至當前水平。這反映出與中央銀行目標的持續背離，暗示當前的政策可能需要調整，以維持未來幾個月的價格穩定。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/Mexico_Inflation_Rate%20%283%29_0.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="820" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/Mexico_Inflation_Rate%20%283%29_0.png"/></p>
<p><em>來源：TradingEconomics</em></p>
<p>在這種背景下，尤其值得注意的是，在 3 月的決策中，墨西哥銀行將利率下調至 <strong>6.75%</strong>，而董事會對此持分歧態度，等待進一步的通脹數據。現在，隨着通脹保持高位，這可能開始影響中央銀行對 2026 年即將到來的貨幣政策決策的展望，可能導致未來幾個月 <strong>暫停降息</strong>。</p>
<p>考慮到墨西哥銀行的利率在與加拿大或美國等經濟體相比時仍然處於較高水平，更激進的立場可能繼續支持 <strong>以比索計價資產的吸引力</strong>。因此，如果通脹壓力持續，美元/墨西哥比索的賣壓在未來幾周可能仍然具有相關性。</p>
<h2><strong>美元的暫時緩解？</strong></h2>
<p>同樣值得注意的是，墨西哥比索近期的強勢得益於 <strong>美元的疲軟</strong>，這主要是由於中東地區的停火，減少了對美元等避險資產的需求。</p>
<p>DXY 指數衡量美元對主要貨幣的強度，已顯示出 <strong>從 100 水平下降至 99 以下的水平</strong>，反映出短期內對該貨幣的需求減弱。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/dxy_cur%20%2821%29_1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1040" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/dxy_cur%20%2821%29_1.png"/></p>
<p><em>來源：TradingEconomics</em></p>
<p>在這種情況下，如果美元疲軟持續，比索可能在短期內繼續走強，進一步施加美元/墨西哥比索的下行壓力。然而，重要的是要考慮到，中東衝突的任何重新升級可能會逆轉這一動態，並恢復對美元的需求，正如前幾周所見。</p>
<h2><strong>美元/墨西哥比索技術展望</strong></h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDMXN_2026-04-09_10-28-11.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1538" height="917" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDMXN_2026-04-09_10-28-11.png"/></p>
<p><em>來源：StoneX, Tradingview</em></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>長期看空通道重新佔據主導地位：</strong> 最近美元/墨西哥比索的疲軟使得自 2025 年以來的 <strong>長期看空通道</strong> 在短期內重新獲得相關性，並再次成為最重要的技術結構。只要買壓未能鞏固，主導偏向可能仍將保持看空，因為近期的上行修正不足以挑戰這一結構。因此，在接下來的交易中，圖表偏向繼續傾向於下行。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>RSI：</strong> RSI 顯示出持續低於 <strong>50 水平</strong> 的走勢，表明在過去 14 個交易日內賣壓占主導地位。只要這種動態持續，下行壓力可能繼續增強。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>MACD：</strong> MACD 直方圖也保持在零線以下，反映出 <strong>賣壓繼續主導短期移動平均線</strong>。如果這種行為持續，可能會在接下來的交易中強化看空偏向。</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>關鍵水平：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>17.89 – 關鍵阻力：</strong> 位於看空通道上方的前高。向該水平的移動可能會重新激活 <strong>看漲偏向</strong>，並挑戰當前的看空結構。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>17.51 – 當前障礙：</strong> 與 50 期移動平均線對齊的短期水平。該水平可能作為潛在 <strong>短期修正走勢</strong> 的參考點。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>17.10 – 關鍵支撐：</strong> 對應於 2026 年的低點和主要下行障礙。跌破該水平可能會強化 <strong>更強的賣壓</strong>，並在未來幾周延長看空通道。</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>撰寫者：Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – 市場分析師</strong></p>
<p><strong>關注他：</strong> <strong>@julianpineda25</strong></p>

墨西哥 3 倍做多 MSCI ETF - Direxion

iShares MSCI墨西哥投資指數ETF

<p>美元/墨西哥比索（USD/MXN）經歷了四個交易日的下跌趨勢，下降超過 2.7%，因墨西哥比索走強。此趨勢受到美元疲軟和墨西哥近期通脹數據的影響，後者仍高於中央銀行的目標。3 月份的年通脹率為 4.59%，引發了對墨西哥銀行貨幣政策調整的猜測。如果美元疲軟持續，比索的強勢可能會繼續，儘管地緣政治緊張局勢可能會逆轉這一趨勢。技術指標顯示，美元/墨西哥比索在短期內呈現看跌前景，關鍵支撐和阻力位已被識別</p>

<p>As the trading week comes to a close, USD/MXN price action has posted a <strong>four-session bearish streak</strong>, with a decline of more than <strong>2.7% in the short term in favor of the Mexican peso</strong>, giving way to a more consistent bearish bias in recent movements.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着交易周的結束，美元/墨西哥比索的價格走勢出現了 <strong>連續四個交易日的下跌趨勢</strong>，短期內下跌幅度超過 <strong>2.7%，有利於墨西哥比索</strong>，使得近期走勢呈現出更為一致的看空偏向。</p>
</div><p>For now, selling pressure has started to emerge due to both the <strong>weakness of the U.S. dollar</strong> and the latest inflation data in Mexico, which do not show a clear slowdown and reinforce the possibility of a <strong>more aggressive stance from Banco de México</strong>. In this context, USD/MXN weakness could remain relevant in the coming trading sessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，由於 <strong>美元的疲軟</strong> 以及墨西哥最新的通脹數據未顯示出明顯放緩，反而增強了 <strong>墨西哥銀行採取更激進立場的可能性</strong>，賣壓開始顯現。在這種背景下，美元/墨西哥比索的疲軟在接下來的交易中可能仍然具有相關性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h2><strong>New inflation data in Mexico</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>墨西哥的新通脹數據</strong></h2>
</div><p>During today’s session, Mexico’s annual inflation rate was released, coming in at <strong>4.59% for March</strong>, in line with expectations of 4.6%, but still well above the central bank’s target near <strong>3.00%</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今天的交易中，墨西哥的年度通脹率公佈為 <strong>3 月 4.59%</strong>，與預期的 4.6% 基本一致，但仍遠高於中央銀行接近 <strong>3.00%</strong> 的目標。</p>
</div><p>Although the figure matched expectations, what stands out is that inflation has shown a <strong>consistent upward trend in recent months</strong>, rising from around 3.69% in December to current levels. This reflects a continued divergence from the central bank’s target, suggesting that the current policy approach may require adjustments to maintain price stability in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管這一數據符合預期，但值得注意的是，通脹在最近幾個月顯示出 <strong>持續上升的趨勢</strong>，從 12 月的約 3.69% 上升至當前水平。這反映出與中央銀行目標的持續背離，暗示當前的政策可能需要調整，以維持未來幾個月的價格穩定。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/Mexico_Inflation_Rate%20%283%29_0.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/Mexico_Inflation_Rate%20%283%29_0.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: TradingEconomics</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：TradingEconomics</em></p>
</div><p>This context is particularly relevant, as during its March decision Banco de México cut interest rates to <strong>6.75%</strong>, with a divided board awaiting further inflation data. Now, with inflation remaining elevated, this could begin to influence the central bank’s outlook for upcoming monetary policy decisions in 2026, potentially leading to a <strong>pause in rate cuts</strong> in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種背景下，尤其值得注意的是，在 3 月的決策中，墨西哥銀行將利率下調至 <strong>6.75%</strong>，而董事會對此持分歧態度，等待進一步的通脹數據。現在，隨着通脹保持高位，這可能開始影響中央銀行對 2026 年即將到來的貨幣政策決策的展望，可能導致未來幾個月 <strong>暫停降息</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Considering that Banco de México maintains one of the highest interest rates compared to economies such as Canada or the United States, a more aggressive stance could continue to support the <strong>attractiveness of peso-denominated assets</strong>. As a result, if inflation pressures persist, selling pressure on USD/MXN could remain relevant in the weeks ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到墨西哥銀行的利率在與加拿大或美國等經濟體相比時仍然處於較高水平，更激進的立場可能繼續支持 <strong>以比索計價資產的吸引力</strong>。因此，如果通脹壓力持續，美元/墨西哥比索的賣壓在未來幾周可能仍然具有相關性。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Temporary relief for the U.S. dollar?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>美元的暫時緩解？</strong></h2>
</div><p>It is also worth noting that the recent strength of the Mexican peso has been supported by the <strong>weakness of the U.S. dollar</strong>, driven by the truce in the Middle East, which has reduced demand for safe-haven assets such as the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同樣值得注意的是，墨西哥比索近期的強勢得益於 <strong>美元的疲軟</strong>，這主要是由於中東地區的停火，減少了對美元等避險資產的需求。</p>
</div><p>The DXY index, which measures the strength of the dollar against its major peers, has shown a <strong>decline from the 100 level toward levels below 99</strong>, reflecting weaker demand for the currency in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DXY 指數衡量美元對主要貨幣的強度，已顯示出 <strong>從 100 水平下降至 99 以下的水平</strong>，反映出短期內對該貨幣的需求減弱。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/dxy_cur%20%2821%29_1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/dxy_cur%20%2821%29_1.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: TradingEconomics</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：TradingEconomics</em></p>
</div><p>In this context, if dollar weakness persists, the peso could continue to gain ground in the short term, further supporting downside pressure in USD/MXN. However, it is important to consider that any renewed escalation in the Middle East conflict could reverse this dynamic and restore demand for the dollar, as seen in previous weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種情況下，如果美元疲軟持續，比索可能在短期內繼續走強，進一步施加美元/墨西哥比索的下行壓力。然而，重要的是要考慮到，中東衝突的任何重新升級可能會逆轉這一動態，並恢復對美元的需求，正如前幾周所見。</p>
</div><h2><strong>USD/MXN Technical Outlook</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>美元/墨西哥比索技術展望</strong></h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDMXN_2026-04-09_10-28-11.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDMXN_2026-04-09_10-28-11.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: StoneX, Tradingview</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：StoneX, Tradingview</em></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Long-term bearish channel regains dominance:</strong> The recent weakness in USD/MXN has allowed the <strong>long-term bearish channel</strong>, in place since 2025, to regain relevance in the short term and once again stand out as the most important technical structure. As long as buying pressure fails to consolidate, the dominant bias is likely to remain bearish, as recent upward corrections have not been strong enough to challenge this structure. Therefore, in the coming sessions, the chart bias continues to lean toward the downside.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>長期看空通道重新佔據主導地位：</strong> 最近美元/墨西哥比索的疲軟使得自 2025 年以來的 <strong>長期看空通道</strong> 在短期內重新獲得相關性，並再次成為最重要的技術結構。只要買壓未能鞏固，主導偏向可能仍將保持看空，因為近期的上行修正不足以挑戰這一結構。因此，在接下來的交易中，圖表偏向繼續傾向於下行。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>RSI:</strong> The RSI shows a consistent move below the <strong>50 level</strong>, suggesting that selling momentum dominates over the last 14 sessions. As long as this dynamic persists, downside pressure could continue to strengthen.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>RSI：</strong> RSI 顯示出持續低於 <strong>50 水平</strong> 的走勢，表明在過去 14 個交易日內賣壓占主導地位。只要這種動態持續，下行壓力可能繼續增強。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>MACD:</strong> The MACD histogram also remains below the zero line, reflecting that <strong>selling pressure continues to dominate short-term moving averages</strong>. If this behavior continues, it could reinforce a bearish bias in the coming sessions.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>MACD：</strong> MACD 直方圖也保持在零線以下，反映出 <strong>賣壓繼續主導短期移動平均線</strong>。如果這種行為持續，可能會在接下來的交易中強化看空偏向。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Key levels:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>關鍵水平：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>17.89 – Key resistance:</strong> A previous high located above the bearish channel. A move toward this level could reactivate a <strong>bullish bias</strong> and challenge the current bearish structure.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>17.89 – 關鍵阻力：</strong> 位於看空通道上方的前高。向該水平的移動可能會重新激活 <strong>看漲偏向</strong>，並挑戰當前的看空結構。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>17.51 – Current barrier:</strong> A near-term level aligned with the 50-period moving average. This level could act as a reference point for potential <strong>short-term corrective moves</strong>.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>17.51 – 當前障礙：</strong> 與 50 期移動平均線對齊的短期水平。該水平可能作為潛在 <strong>短期修正走勢</strong> 的參考點。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>17.10 – Key support:</strong> A level corresponding to 2026 lows and the main downside barrier. A break below this level could reinforce <strong>stronger selling pressure</strong> and extend the bearish channel in the coming weeks.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>17.10 – 關鍵支撐：</strong> 對應於 2026 年的低點和主要下行障礙。跌破該水平可能會強化 <strong>更強的賣壓</strong>，並在未來幾周延長看空通道。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>撰寫者：Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – 市場分析師</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Follow him on:</strong> <strong>@julianpineda25</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>關注他：</strong> <strong>@julianpineda25</strong></p>
</div>

美元兑墨西哥比索分析：墨西哥比索在通脹數據發佈後依然強勁