<p>作者：Frances Yue</p>
<p>比特幣近期的強勁表現可能暗示軟件股的壓力最終會開始減輕</p>
<p>Okta 是週五大幅下跌的軟件股之一。</p>
<p>週五比特幣的相對強勢可能為受挫的軟件股提供了一個看漲的線索——如果過去的關係仍然成立的話，BTIG 的技術策略師表示。</p>
<p>這個信號很重要，因為軟件股在最近幾週一直是股市中表現最弱的領域之一。在近年來，加密貨幣和軟件股往往是同步波動的，二者都被視為風險資產，當投資者更願意投資於增長和投機時，通常會受益。</p>
<p>如果這種相關性仍然存在，比特幣（BTCUSD）近期的強勁表現可能暗示軟件股的壓力最終也會開始減輕，BTIG 首席市場技術分析師 Jonathan Krinsky 在週五與 MarketWatch 分享的評論中表示。</p>
<p>這對股票多頭來説是個好消息。但 Krinsky 指出，可能還有另一種不太樂觀的解釋：比特幣與軟件股之間的相關性可能正在開始減弱。</p>
<p>如果是這樣，加密貨幣的漲幅可能對軟件股的未來走勢沒有太大影響。Krinsky 補充説，目前還為時尚早，無法確定哪種解釋是正確的。</p>
<p>下圖顯示了自 2024 年以來比特幣和 WisdomTree 雲計算基金 WCLD（投資於軟件公司的基金）的表現。</p>
<p>週五，比特幣與軟件股之間的對比尤為明顯。根據道瓊斯市場數據，WCLD 基金週五下午下跌 5.2%，收於 24.09 美元，為 2023 年 1 月 6 日以來的最低收盤價。該 ETF 也連續第五天下跌，創下自 2025 年 4 月 8 日以來最糟糕的五天表現。與此同時，比特幣週五交易價格最高達到 73,311 美元，為 3 月 18 日以來的最高日內水平。</p>
<p>這種分化自 2 月底以來變得尤為明顯，當時伊朗戰爭爆發。自 2 月 28 日衝突開始以來，比特幣上漲了 11.5%，而標準普爾 500 指數（SPX）下跌了 0.9%。在同一時期，WCLD 基金下跌了 12.3%。</p>
<p>另一隻廣受關注的軟件行業指標 iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF（IGV）在此期間下跌了 9.2%。但 Krinsky 指出，IGV 並不是純粹的軟件投資，因為它還包括一些加密礦工。這使得近期的分歧更加令人驚訝，因為與加密相關的強勁表現本應幫助該 ETF 抵禦更大的損失，即使軟件股繼續下滑。</p>
<p>軟件股受到壓力的部分原因是投資者擔心人工智能可能通過降低競爭對手構建競爭產品的成本和難度來擠壓軟件利潤。</p>
<p>與此同時，比特幣近期的韌性可能是由特定於加密貨幣的因素驅動，而不是軟件公司的前景改善。一些加密市場參與者認為，比特幣的相對優越表現部分反映了其在地緣政治壓力下作為潛在價值儲存的吸引力，尤其是在中東一些地區擔心在衝突中獲得當地銀行系統的接入。</p>
<p>-Frances Yue</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
<p>04-10-26 1736ET</p>

RIOT

ETHE

<p>比特幣近期的強勁表現可能表明軟件股票面臨的壓力有可能減輕，而這些股票一直處於掙扎之中。例如，Okta 的股價大幅下跌。歷史上，軟件和加密貨幣股票的走勢通常是同步的，但這種相關性可能正在減弱。WisdomTree 雲計算基金下跌了 5.2%，而比特幣則達到了自三月以來的最高水平。對人工智能影響軟件利潤的擔憂以及地緣政治因素對比特幣作為價值儲存手段吸引力的影響正在推動這些趨勢。比特幣與軟件股票之間的未來關係仍然不確定</p>

<p>By Frances Yue</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Frances Yue</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin's recent strength could suggest that pressure on software stocks may eventually start to ease</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣近期的強勁表現可能暗示軟件股的壓力最終會開始減輕</p>
</div><p>Okta was one of the software stocks that fell sharply on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Okta 是週五大幅下跌的軟件股之一。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin's relative strength on Friday may offer a bullish clue for battered software shares - that is, if a past relationship still holds, according to a technical strategist at BTIG.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五比特幣的相對強勢可能為受挫的軟件股提供了一個看漲的線索——如果過去的關係仍然成立的話，BTIG 的技術策略師表示。</p>
</div><p>The signal matters because software has been one of the stock market's weakest areas in recent weeks. In recent years, crypto and software stocks have often moved in tandem, with both seen as risk-on assets that tend to benefit when investors are more willing to buy into growth and speculation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這個信號很重要，因為軟件股在最近幾週一直是股市中表現最弱的領域之一。在近年來，加密貨幣和軟件股往往是同步波動的，二者都被視為風險資產，當投資者更願意投資於增長和投機時，通常會受益。</p>
</div><p>If that correlation still holds, bitcoin's (BTCUSD) recent strength could suggest that pressure on software stocks may eventually start to ease as well, said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, in commentary shared with MarketWatch on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果這種相關性仍然存在，比特幣（BTCUSD）近期的強勁表現可能暗示軟件股的壓力最終也會開始減輕，BTIG 首席市場技術分析師 Jonathan Krinsky 在週五與 MarketWatch 分享的評論中表示。</p>
</div><p>That would be good news for equity bulls. But there might be another, less promising explanation, according to Krinsky: The correlation between bitcoin and software stocks may simply be starting to break down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這對股票多頭來説是個好消息。但 Krinsky 指出，可能還有另一種不太樂觀的解釋：比特幣與軟件股之間的相關性可能正在開始減弱。</p>
</div><p>If that is the case, crypto's gains may have little to say about where software stocks are headed next. It is still too early to know which explanation is right, Krinsky added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果是這樣，加密貨幣的漲幅可能對軟件股的未來走勢沒有太大影響。Krinsky 補充説，目前還為時尚早，無法確定哪種解釋是正確的。</p>
</div><p>The chart below shows the performance of bitcoin and the WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund WCLD, which invests in software companies, since 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下圖顯示了自 2024 年以來比特幣和 WisdomTree 雲計算基金 WCLD（投資於軟件公司的基金）的表現。</p>
</div><p>The contrast between bitcoin and software stocks was on vivid display Friday. The WCLD fund fell 5.2% Friday afternoon to end at $24.09, its lowest close since Jan. 6, 2023, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The ETF was also down for a fifth straight day, marking its worst five-day stretch since the period ended April 8, 2025. Bitcoin, meanwhile, traded as high as $73,311 on Friday, its highest intraday level since March 18.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五，比特幣與軟件股之間的對比尤為明顯。根據道瓊斯市場數據，WCLD 基金週五下午下跌 5.2%，收於 24.09 美元，為 2023 年 1 月 6 日以來的最低收盤價。該 ETF 也連續第五天下跌，創下自 2025 年 4 月 8 日以來最糟糕的五天表現。與此同時，比特幣週五交易價格最高達到 73,311 美元，為 3 月 18 日以來的最高日內水平。</p>
</div><p>That split has become especially noticeable since late February, when the Iran war broke out. Since the start of the conflict on Feb. 28, bitcoin has risen 11.5%, while the S&amp;P 500 SPX has fallen 0.9%. Over the same period, the WCLD fund has dropped 12.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種分化自 2 月底以來變得尤為明顯，當時伊朗戰爭爆發。自 2 月 28 日衝突開始以來，比特幣上漲了 11.5%，而標準普爾 500 指數（SPX）下跌了 0.9%。在同一時期，WCLD 基金下跌了 12.3%。</p>
</div><p>The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF IGV, another widely watched software-sector gauge, has fallen 9.2% over that stretch. But IGV is not a pure software play, Krinsky noted, because it also includes a number of crypto miners. That makes the recent divergence even more surprising, he said, as crypto-related strength should have helped buttress the ETF against heavier losses, even as software stocks continued to slide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一隻廣受關注的軟件行業指標 iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF（IGV）在此期間下跌了 9.2%。但 Krinsky 指出，IGV 並不是純粹的軟件投資，因為它還包括一些加密礦工。這使得近期的分歧更加令人驚訝，因為與加密相關的強勁表現本應幫助該 ETF 抵禦更大的損失，即使軟件股繼續下滑。</p>
</div><p>Software stocks have come under pressure in part because investors worry that artificial intelligence could squeeze software profits by making it cheaper and easier for rivals to build competing products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>軟件股受到壓力的部分原因是投資者擔心人工智能可能通過降低競爭對手構建競爭產品的成本和難度來擠壓軟件利潤。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, bitcoin's recent resilience may be driven by forces specific to crypto, rather than by any improving outlook for software companies. Some crypto-market participants have argued that bitcoin's relative outperformance partly reflects its appeal as a potential store of value during geopolitical stress, particularly as some in the Middle East have worried about access to local banking systems amid the conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，比特幣近期的韌性可能是由特定於加密貨幣的因素驅動，而不是軟件公司的前景改善。一些加密市場參與者認為，比特幣的相對優越表現部分反映了其在地緣政治壓力下作為潛在價值儲存的吸引力，尤其是在中東一些地區擔心在衝突中獲得當地銀行系統的接入。</p>
</div><p>-Frances Yue</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Frances Yue</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
</div><p>04-10-26 1736ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>04-10-26 1736ET</p>
</div>

Software stocks are getting pulverized - but bitcoin's rebound hints that a bottom might be in

- 比特幣的近期強勁表現可能暗示軟件股票的壓力將逐漸減輕。  
- 軟件股票在最近幾周表現疲軟，例如 Okta 股票大幅下跌。  
- 投資者對人工智能的擔憂和地緣政治因素可能影響了軟件公司前景。

Dow Jones

Riot Platforms

Hut 8 Mining

Grayscale Ethereum Staking ETF

Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF

Bakkt

American Bitcoin

Coinbase

Marathon Digital

WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund

IShares Ethereum Trust ETF

Grayscale Solana Staking ETF

VanEck Ethereum ETF

Franklin Bitcoin ETF

CoinShares Bitcoin ETF

Grayscale Bitcoin Adopters ETF

標普軟件與服務 ETF - SPDR

Fidelity Ethereum Fund

2 倍做多 Riot ETF - Defiance

區塊鏈 ETF - Amplify

Franklin Ethereum ETF

北美科技軟件股指數 ETF - iShares

雲計算基金 - WisdomTree

Bitwise Ethereum ETF

Grayscale Ethereum Mini Staking ETF

COIN 周收益 ETF - Roundhill

2 倍做多 Coinbase ETF - Leverage Shares

2 倍做多 MARA ETF - GraniteShares

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - ETF

VanEck Bitcoin ETF

Tradr 2X Long OKTA Daily ETF

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF

Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF

軟件股正遭受重創，但比特幣的反彈暗示市場底部可能已經形成