<p>韓國銀行正在發出信號，準備應對由於地緣政治風險導致的外匯波動以及日益上升的通脹擔憂，儘管經濟增長仍然不均衡。</p>
<p>摘要：</p>
<ul>
<li>韓國銀行行長提名人表示準備對過度貶值的韓元採取行動</li>
<li>外匯波動受中東緊張局勢和美伊談判失敗驅動</li>
<li>通脹風險上升，現已成為政策決策的關鍵因素</li>
<li>增長拖累持續，但部分被強勁的半導體出口抵消</li>
<li>政策前景高度不確定，通脹與增長的權衡加劇</li>
</ul>
<p>韓國即將上任的中央銀行領導層正在發出對貨幣穩定更加警惕的信號，韓國銀行（BOK）行長提名人申泫松表示，如果韓元過度貶值，當局已準備好採取應對措施。在提交給國會確認聽證會的發言中，申強調，自中東衝突升級以來，韓元面臨的急劇貶值壓力，指出韓元的波動比許多同類貨幣更為明顯。</p>
<p>儘管該貨幣最近在每美元 1,480 附近穩定，但波動性仍然較高。週一，韓元再次貶值，短暫接近每美元 1,500，此前最新一輪美伊談判未能達成解決方案，突顯出該貨幣對外部地緣政治發展的敏感性。申強調，當局將繼續密切監測外匯狀況，暗示如果波動變得無序，準備採取行動。</p>
<p>與此同時，申淡化了對匯率絕對水平的擔憂，指出國內金融市場的流動性狀況穩定。這反映出一種謹慎的做法，政策制定者不再過於關注捍衞特定水平，而更關注防止過度或不穩定的波動。</p>
<p>在貨幣政策方面，申表示，尤其是由於與地緣政治緊張局勢相關的能源價格上漲所帶來的通脹風險，將是未來決策的關鍵考慮因素。這標誌着向更加關注通脹的立場轉變，即使韓國的增長前景仍面臨壓力。</p>
<p>最近的數據和中央銀行的指導表明宏觀經濟形勢複雜。儘管全球需求疲軟和不確定性繼續對增長施加壓力，但強勁的半導體出口和財政支持措施提供了一定的抵消。韓國銀行最近維持利率不變，但承認未來的道路更加不確定，預計增長放緩和通脹上升。</p>
<p>總體而言，申的發言表明中央銀行正在應對日益複雜的環境，平衡貨幣穩定、通脹風險和脆弱的增長動態。</p>
<p><strong>從政策信號來看，這在一定程度上支持韓元，但更廣泛的力量主導着局勢。對過度外匯波動的應對意願可能有助於穩定貨幣，特別是在急劇貶值的情況下。然而，油價上漲和全球風險厭惡仍然是主要驅動因素，給韓元施加壓力。對於利率而言，向通脹擔憂的轉變減少了寬鬆的空間，形成比之前預期更緊的政策傾向。</strong></p>

富時韓國 ETF - Franklin Templeton

2 倍做多日圓 ETF - ProShares

IKOR

韓國 MSCI ETF - iShares

<p>韓國銀行（BOK）行長提名人申賢洙表示，鑑於通脹風險上升和地緣政治緊張局勢，特別是來自中東的影響，他準備對韓元的過度貶值進行干預。韓元近期波動顯著，接近每美元 1,500。申強調要監測外匯狀況，並指出通脹，尤其是能源價格，是未來政策決策的關鍵因素。儘管面臨增長挑戰，強勁的半導體出口提供了一定支持，但整體政策前景仍不確定，通脹與增長之間的權衡加劇</p>

<p>The BOK is signalling readiness to respond to excessive won weakness as geopolitical risks drive FX volatility, while inflation concerns rise and growth remains uneven.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韓國銀行正在發出信號，準備應對由於地緣政治風險導致的外匯波動以及日益上升的通脹擔憂，儘管經濟增長仍然不均衡。</p>
</div><p>Summary:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摘要：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>BOK governor nominee flags readiness to act against excessive won weakness</li>
<li>FX volatility driven by Middle East tensions and failed US–Iran talks</li>
<li>Inflation risks rising, now key factor for policy decisions</li>
<li>Growth drag persists but partly offset by strong semiconductor exports</li>
<li>Policy outlook remains highly uncertain with inflation–growth trade-off intensifying</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>韓國銀行行長提名人表示準備對過度貶值的韓元採取行動</li>
<li>外匯波動受中東緊張局勢和美伊談判失敗驅動</li>
<li>通脹風險上升，現已成為政策決策的關鍵因素</li>
<li>增長拖累持續，但部分被強勁的半導體出口抵消</li>
<li>政策前景高度不確定，通脹與增長的權衡加劇</li>
</ul>
</div><p>South Korea’s incoming central bank leadership is signalling a more vigilant stance on currency stability, as the Bank of Korea (BOK) governor nominee Shin Hyun-song indicated authorities are prepared to respond if the Korean won weakens excessively. In remarks submitted ahead of his parliamentary confirmation hearing, Shin highlighted the sharp depreciation pressures seen since the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, noting that moves in the won have been more pronounced than in many peer currencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韓國即將上任的中央銀行領導層正在發出對貨幣穩定更加警惕的信號，韓國銀行（BOK）行長提名人申泫松表示，如果韓元過度貶值，當局已準備好採取應對措施。在提交給國會確認聽證會的發言中，申強調，自中東衝突升級以來，韓元面臨的急劇貶值壓力，指出韓元的波動比許多同類貨幣更為明顯。</p>
</div><p>Although the currency had recently stabilised near the 1,480 per dollar level, volatility remains elevated. The won weakened again on Monday, briefly approaching 1,500 per dollar after the latest round of US–Iran talks failed to produce a resolution, underscoring how sensitive the currency remains to external geopolitical developments. Shin stressed that authorities would continue to closely monitor foreign exchange conditions, suggesting a readiness to act if moves become disorderly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管該貨幣最近在每美元 1,480 附近穩定，但波動性仍然較高。週一，韓元再次貶值，短暫接近每美元 1,500，此前最新一輪美伊談判未能達成解決方案，突顯出該貨幣對外部地緣政治發展的敏感性。申強調，當局將繼續密切監測外匯狀況，暗示如果波動變得無序，準備採取行動。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, Shin downplayed concerns around the absolute level of the exchange rate, pointing to stable liquidity conditions in domestic financial markets. This reflects a measured approach, where policymakers are less focused on defending specific levels and more concerned with preventing excessive or destabilising volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，申淡化了對匯率絕對水平的擔憂，指出國內金融市場的流動性狀況穩定。這反映出一種謹慎的做法，政策制定者不再過於關注捍衞特定水平，而更關注防止過度或不穩定的波動。</p>
</div><p>On monetary policy, Shin signalled that rising inflation risks, particularly those stemming from higher energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions, would be a key consideration in future decisions. This marks a shift toward a more inflation-aware stance, even as South Korea’s growth outlook remains under pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在貨幣政策方面，申表示，尤其是由於與地緣政治緊張局勢相關的能源價格上漲所帶來的通脹風險，將是未來決策的關鍵考慮因素。這標誌着向更加關注通脹的立場轉變，即使韓國的增長前景仍面臨壓力。</p>
</div><p>Recent data and central bank guidance suggest a mixed macro picture. While weaker global demand and uncertainty continue to weigh on growth, robust semiconductor exports and fiscal support measures are providing some offset. The BOK recently held rates steady but acknowledged a more uncertain path ahead, with expectations of slower growth and higher inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的數據和中央銀行的指導表明宏觀經濟形勢複雜。儘管全球需求疲軟和不確定性繼續對增長施加壓力，但強勁的半導體出口和財政支持措施提供了一定的抵消。韓國銀行最近維持利率不變，但承認未來的道路更加不確定，預計增長放緩和通脹上升。</p>
</div><p>Overall, Shin’s remarks point to a central bank navigating an increasingly complex environment, balancing currency stability, inflation risks, and fragile growth dynamics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，申的發言表明中央銀行正在應對日益複雜的環境，平衡貨幣穩定、通脹風險和脆弱的增長動態。</p>
</div><p><strong>This is KRW-supportive at the margin via policy signalling, but broader forces dominate. The willingness to respond to excessive FX moves may help stabilise the currency, particularly against sharp depreciation episodes. However, rising oil prices and global risk aversion remain key drivers, keeping pressure on KRW. For rates, the shift toward inflation concerns reduces easing scope, creating a tighter policy bias than previously expected.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>從政策信號來看，這在一定程度上支持韓元，但更廣泛的力量主導着局勢。對過度外匯波動的應對意願可能有助於穩定貨幣，特別是在急劇貶值的情況下。然而，油價上漲和全球風險厭惡仍然是主要驅動因素，給韓元施加壓力。對於利率而言，向通脹擔憂的轉變減少了寬鬆的空間，形成比之前預期更緊的政策傾向。</strong></p>
</div>

BOK nominee flags intervention action on won weakness as inflation risks rise

- 韓國銀行行長提名人表示將應對韓元過度貶值。  
- 外匯波動受中東局勢和美伊談判失敗驅動。  
- 通脹風險上升將影響未來政策決策。

韓國央行提名人指出，由於通脹風險上升，將對韓元疲軟採取干預措施