<blockquote>
<p><em>Questor</em> <em>,《每日電訊報》的投資專欄，每週觀察市場動態——是什麼推動了市場，未來會發生什麼，以及這一切將如何影響您的投資組合和財務目標。</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>如果有一個行業是投資銀行（“賣方”）和機構基金經理（“買方”）一致認為今年是明智投資的，那就是銀行業。</p>
<p>儘管有一些顯著的逆勢例外，但大多數關於大型貸款機構的評論語氣是積極的。</p>
<p>這一年比預期的更加波動——尤其是由於中東戰爭——但即便在這種情況下，投資者也可以理解對該行業感到失望。</p>
<p>在經歷了多年的牛市後，FTSE 350 銀行指數在今年迄今為止下跌。截至撰寫時，它在 FTSE 350 的 38 個工業分類中僅排第 16 位。</p>
<p>考慮到老市場諺語——“在 ‘好’ 行業中的 ‘壞’ 股票將優於在 ‘壞’ 行業中的 ‘好’ 股票”——值得回顧一下銀行的牛市和熊市案例。</p>
<h2>好時光</h2>
<p>分析師預計，銀行將產生近四分之一的 FTSE 100 預計的 2026 年税前總利潤，並支付五分之一的股息。貸款機構對英國股市的重要性不亞於適當定價的信貸供應對國家經濟引擎的推動作用。</p>
<p>在這方面，很容易理解為什麼銀行的股票表現如此良好。</p>
<p>首先，大型貸款機構重新贏得了投資者的青睞。它們的税前利潤在 2025 年達到了 507 億英鎊，創下歷史新高，分析師預計 2026 年和 2027 年將進一步增長。</p>
<p>其次，大型銀行通過豐厚的現金回報（包括股息和股票回購）重新贏得了投資者的青睞。</p>
<p>通過這兩種機制，2025 年的總回報為 310 億英鎊，是五大銀行（巴克萊、滙豐、勞埃德、國家西敏寺和渣打）有史以來的第二高金額，相當於基於其當前股市估值的 7.5% 的現金收益率。</p>
<p>最後，至少在年初，宏觀經濟環境看起來是良性的。</p>
<p>利率緩慢下降，結構性對沖鎖定了健康的淨利差，而貸款損失則較小，監管罰款有限——對於那些擁有投資銀行業務的銀行來説，金融市場也很繁榮。</p>
<p>這種組合支撐了分析師對 2026 年和 2027 年更高利潤和股息的預測。</p>
<h2>困難時期</h2>
<p>今年 FTSE 350 銀行指數的下跌可能只是一個小波動，但投資者在評估銀行股票的風險回報特徵時需要考慮一些擔憂。</p>
<p>首先，由於表現良好，股票的價格不再像以前那樣便宜。</p>
<p>巴克萊、滙豐、勞埃德、國家西敏寺和渣打在本十年初以大幅折扣交易於有形淨資產價值，而在今年早些時候的高點，它們的交易價格均超過了賬面價值。</p>
<p>此外，只有國家西敏寺的預計股息收益率目前超過了 10 年期國債收益率。</p>
<p>其次，滙豐已暫停其回購計劃，以消化其 136 億美元（101 億英鎊）收購香港恒生銀行 37% 股份的交易。</p>
<p>國家西敏寺在以 27 億英鎊收購 Evelyn Partners 後，也宣佈暫停其當前的回購計劃。</p>
<p>這可能意味着銀行的總回購在 2026 年將連續第二年下降，市場對此動量的變化非常敏感，尤其是它們可能更傾向於回購的安全性，而不是收購所帶來的風險。</p>
<p>最後，宏觀經濟環境看起來不那麼確定，主要是由於中東戰爭。</p>
<p>利率可能會保持較高水平以支持淨利差，但由於能源價格上漲導致的任何經濟放緩可能會導致貸款損失增加，從而抵消額外的利息收入。</p>
<p>此外，銀行股在美國和歐洲表現疲軟——儘管在經歷了一段長時間的強勁表現後。</p>
<p>其中一些可能是由於對貸款機構在私人信貸和私募股權方面的風險的擔憂——無論是通過它們的貸款組合還是它們的投資銀行業務。</p>
<p>貸款機構繼續反駁這種説法，並聲稱美國一些高調的企業失敗是高收益貸款業務的一部分。</p>
<p>其中一些可能只是對通貨膨脹、利率以及最重要的增長的更廣泛擔憂，如果中東戰爭持續時間超過預期，油氣價格保持高位，從而損害消費者的現金流和企業利潤率。</p>
<p>霍爾木茲海峽的迅速解決至少可以消除一個擔憂，並給銀行提供機會，證明它們可以在全球金融危機首次出現二十年後，可靠地提供利潤和股息。</p>

HUKX

BNKR

VUKE

L100

RUKS

<p>Questor 的投資專欄討論了當前銀行業的狀況，強調了積極和消極的方面。分析師預測，銀行將在 2026 年對 FTSE 100 的利潤和分紅做出重要貢獻。然而，FTSE 350 銀行指數今年有所下降，引發了對股票估值和未來回購的擔憂。地緣政治緊張局勢和經濟不確定性等因素可能會影響貸款損失和整體市場表現。投資者被建議在這些挑戰中權衡銀行股票的風險和回報</p>

<blockquote>
<p><em>Questor</em> <em>, The Telegraph’s investing column, takes a weekly view of the markets – what is moving them, what lies ahead and how all of this could affect your portfolios and financial goals.</em></p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p><em>Questor</em> <em>,《每日電訊報》的投資專欄，每週觀察市場動態——是什麼推動了市場，未來會發生什麼，以及這一切將如何影響您的投資組合和財務目標。</em></p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>If there was one sector which investment banks (“sell side”) and institutional fund managers (“buy side”) agreed was a smart investment this year, it was the banks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果有一個行業是投資銀行（“賣方”）和機構基金經理（“買方”）一致認為今年是明智投資的，那就是銀行業。</p>
</div><p>While there were notable, contrarian exceptions, the tone of most commentary on the big lenders was positive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管有一些顯著的逆勢例外，但大多數關於大型貸款機構的評論語氣是積極的。</p>
</div><p>It is proving a more volatile year than anticipated – not least thanks to the war in the Middle East – but even in this context, investors could be forgiven for being disappointed with the sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一年比預期的更加波動——尤其是由於中東戰爭——但即便在這種情況下，投資者也可以理解對該行業感到失望。</p>
</div><p>After a multi-year bull run, the FTSE 350 Banks index is down in the year to date. At the time of writing, it sits just 16th out of the 38 industrial groupings that comprise the FTSE 350.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在經歷了多年的牛市後，FTSE 350 銀行指數在今年迄今為止下跌。截至撰寫時，它在 FTSE 350 的 38 個工業分類中僅排第 16 位。</p>
</div><p>In view of the old market saying – “a ‘bad’ stock in a ‘good’ sector will outperform a ‘good’ stock in a ‘bad’ sector” – it is worth reviewing the bull and bear case for the banks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到老市場諺語——“在 ‘好’ 行業中的 ‘壞’ 股票將優於在 ‘壞’ 行業中的 ‘好’ 股票”——值得回顧一下銀行的牛市和熊市案例。</p>
</div><h2>Good times</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>好時光</h2>
</div><p>Analysts expect banks to generate almost a quarter of the FTSE 100’s forecast aggregate pre-tax profit for 2026 and pay out a fifth of its dividends. Lenders matter to the UK equity market as much as the supply of appropriately priced credit helps to grease the gears of the nation’s economic engine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師預計，銀行將產生近四分之一的 FTSE 100 預計的 2026 年税前總利潤，並支付五分之一的股息。貸款機構對英國股市的重要性不亞於適當定價的信貸供應對國家經濟引擎的推動作用。</p>
</div><p>In this respect, it is easy to see why the banks’ shares had done so well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這方面，很容易理解為什麼銀行的股票表現如此良好。</p>
</div><p>First, the big lenders have earned their way back into investors’ affections. Their combined pre-tax profits came to £50.7bn in 2025, a record high, and analysts have pencilled in further increases for 2026 and 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，大型貸款機構重新贏得了投資者的青睞。它們的税前利潤在 2025 年達到了 507 億英鎊，創下歷史新高，分析師預計 2026 年和 2027 年將進一步增長。</p>
</div><p>Second, the big banks have also paid their way back into investors’ affections with bumper cash returns in the form of both dividends and share buybacks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，大型銀行通過豐厚的現金回報（包括股息和股票回購）重新贏得了投資者的青睞。</p>
</div><p>The total return via the combined mechanisms in 2025 was £31bn, the second-highest sum ever from the big five (Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, NatWest and Standard Chartered) and equivalent to a cash yield of 7.5pc based on their current stock market valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通過這兩種機制，2025 年的總回報為 310 億英鎊，是五大銀行（巴克萊、滙豐、勞埃德、國家西敏寺和渣打）有史以來的第二高金額，相當於基於其當前股市估值的 7.5% 的現金收益率。</p>
</div><p>Finally, at the start of the year at least, the macroeconomic environment looked benign.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，至少在年初，宏觀經濟環境看起來是良性的。</p>
</div><p>Interest rates were declining slowly, structural hedges locked in healthy net interest margins while loan losses were muted, regulatory fines were limited and – for those with investment banking operations – financial markets were buoyant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率緩慢下降，結構性對沖鎖定了健康的淨利差，而貸款損失則較小，監管罰款有限——對於那些擁有投資銀行業務的銀行來説，金融市場也很繁榮。</p>
</div><p>That combination underpinned analysts’ forecasts for higher profits and dividends in 2026 and 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種組合支撐了分析師對 2026 年和 2027 年更高利潤和股息的預測。</p>
</div><h2>Hard times</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>困難時期</h2>
</div><p>This year’s drop in the FTSE 350 Banks index might be a blip, but there are concerns investors need to consider as they assess the risk-reward profile of the banks’ shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年 FTSE 350 銀行指數的下跌可能只是一個小波動，但投資者在評估銀行股票的風險回報特徵時需要考慮一些擔憂。</p>
</div><p>First, the stocks are no longer as cheap as they were, thanks to the fact that they have done so well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，由於表現良好，股票的價格不再像以前那樣便宜。</p>
</div><p>Each of Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, NatWest and Standard Chartered began this decade trading at big discounts to tangible net asset value whereas, at their highs earlier this year, they all traded at a premium to book value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴克萊、滙豐、勞埃德、國家西敏寺和渣打在本十年初以大幅折扣交易於有形淨資產價值，而在今年早些時候的高點，它們的交易價格均超過了賬面價值。</p>
</div><p>In addition, only NatWest’s forecast dividend yield currently exceeds the 10-year gilt yield.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，只有國家西敏寺的預計股息收益率目前超過了 10 年期國債收益率。</p>
</div><p>Second, HSBC has brought its buyback programme to a halt while it digests its $13.6bn (£10.1bn) purchase of the 37pc stake in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Bank that it did not already own.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，滙豐已暫停其回購計劃，以消化其 136 億美元（101 億英鎊）收購香港恒生銀行 37% 股份的交易。</p>
</div><p>NatWest has also declared a pause after its current programme following its £2.7bn swoop for Evelyn Partners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國家西敏寺在以 27 億英鎊收購 Evelyn Partners 後，也宣佈暫停其當前的回購計劃。</p>
</div><p>That may mean total buybacks from the banks decline for the second year in a row in 2026 and the markets are proving sensitive to this shift in momentum, not least as they may prefer the safety of buybacks to the risks associated with acquisitions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這可能意味着銀行的總回購在 2026 年將連續第二年下降，市場對此動量的變化非常敏感，尤其是它們可能更傾向於回購的安全性，而不是收購所帶來的風險。</p>
</div><p>Finally, the macroeconomic environment looks less certain, mainly thanks to the war in the Middle East.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，宏觀經濟環境看起來不那麼確定，主要是由於中東戰爭。</p>
</div><p>Interest rates may stay higher for longer to support net interest margins but any economic slowdown because of higher energy prices could lead to an increase in loan losses that offsets the extra interest income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率可能會保持較高水平以支持淨利差，但由於能源價格上漲導致的任何經濟放緩可能會導致貸款損失增加，從而抵消額外的利息收入。</p>
</div><p>In addition, banking stocks are weak in the US and Europe – albeit again after a long, storming run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，銀行股在美國和歐洲表現疲軟——儘管在經歷了一段長時間的強勁表現後。</p>
</div><p>Some of this may be because of fears over the lenders’ exposures to private credit and private equity – either through their loan books or their investment banking operations – where they have them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其中一些可能是由於對貸款機構在私人信貸和私募股權方面的風險的擔憂——無論是通過它們的貸款組合還是它們的投資銀行業務。</p>
</div><p>The lenders continue to rebut such suggestions and assert that a couple of high-profile corporate failures in the US are part and parcel of the business of high-yield lending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>貸款機構繼續反駁這種説法，並聲稱美國一些高調的企業失敗是高收益貸款業務的一部分。</p>
</div><p>Some of it may just be wider worries about inflation, interest rates and above all growth, should the Middle East war last for longer than hoped and oil and gas prices stay elevated as a result, to the detriment of consumers’ cash flows and corporate profit margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其中一些可能只是對通貨膨脹、利率以及最重要的增長的更廣泛擔憂，如果中東戰爭持續時間超過預期，油氣價格保持高位，從而損害消費者的現金流和企業利潤率。</p>
</div><p>A speedy resolution in the Strait of Hormuz could at least remove one worry and give the banks the chance to prove that they can be reliable providers of profits and dividends, two decades on from the first rumblings of the Global Financial Crisis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍爾木茲海峽的迅速解決至少可以消除一個擔憂，並給銀行提供機會，證明它們可以在全球金融危機首次出現二十年後，可靠地提供利潤和股息。</p>
</div>

投資者還能依靠大銀行嗎？