<p>胡志明市——根據分析師的説法，2026 年初，銀行間利率保持在高位，反映出流動性條件的緊縮，因為信貸增長繼續超過存款動員。</p>
<p>2 月初，銀行間隔夜貸款利率飆升至 17%，為近十年來的最高水平，隨後有所回落。然而，利率仍然波動，4 月初的隔夜利率仍徘徊在 9% 左右。</p>
<p>銀行間市場是信貸機構相互借貸以滿足短期流動性需求的地方，在經歷了一段強勁的信貸擴張後，面臨越來越大的壓力。</p>
<p>根據總統計局的數據，截至 3 月底，信貸增長達到 2.15%，而存款增長僅為 0.44%。這種差異加大了銀行系統的資金缺口。</p>
<p>在胡志明市，這種不平衡更加明顯，第一季度存款增長僅為 0.1%，而信貸擴張為 1.5%，根據越南國家銀行（SBV）的數據。</p>
<p>因此，幾家銀行的貸款與存款比率超過了 100%，增加了對銀行間借貸的依賴，並推高了資金成本。</p>
<p>越南外貿銀行證券的分析師指出，自 2025 年下半年以來，流動性壓力不斷加大，特別是在中小型股份制銀行中。</p>
<p>分析師表示：“當銀行吸收短期衝擊的能力減弱時，它們對銀行間資金的依賴加大，從而導致利率上升。”</p>
<p>作為回應，SBV 積極部署貨幣工具以支持流動性，包括通過公開市場操作注入資金。在某些時候，中央銀行提供了高達 37 萬億越南盾（14 億美元）的短期貸款，期限延長。</p>
<p>然而，流動性管理因匯率壓力而變得複雜。SBV 最近以每美元 26,850 越南盾的匯率進行了 180 天期限的美元遠期銷售，以努力在強勢美元和全球不確定性中穩定本幣。</p>
<p>根據新韓證券的分析師阮歡年（Nguyễn Hoàn Niên）的説法，雖然這一措施有助於緩解匯率壓力，但也有效地吸收了一部分越南盾流動性，導致銀行系統的條件更加緊張。</p>
<p>市場觀察者還強調了 “局部流動性短缺” 的問題，即資金未能有效地從流動性過剩的銀行重新分配到面臨赤字的銀行，延長了銀行間市場的緊張狀況。</p>
<p>儘管銀行間利率上升，但其向零售存款利率的傳導仍然不均衡。</p>
<p>專家指出，越南兩個市場之間的關係並不總是遵循傳統模式，部分原因是結構特徵和利率上限等監管措施。</p>
<p>利息收入繼續佔越南銀行總收入的顯著份額，約為 70-80%，而許多國際同行的比例約為 30%，使得該系統對資金成本波動更加敏感。</p>
<p>持續高企的銀行間利率預計將對銀行的淨利差施加壓力，促使貸款機構多元化收入來源，包括擴大消費貸款和基於費用的服務。</p>
<p>分析師預測，銀行間利率在短期內不太可能大幅下降，預計一個月的期限將穩定在 6.8-7%。存款利率預計將在每年 7% 到 9% 之間，具體取決於銀行。</p>
<p>在持續的匯率壓力和有限的政策空間背景下，專家表示，短期內回到前幾年低利率環境的可能性不大，這意味着企業和投資者將面臨持續的高融資成本。——越南新聞社（VNS）</p>

VNAM

越南 ETF - VanEck Vectors

XFVT

<p>越南的銀行間利率在 2026 年初保持高位，因流動性緊縮，隔夜利率在 2 月份達到 17% 的峯值，隨後在 4 月份穩定在約 9%。信貸增長超過存款增長，導致資金缺口，尤其是在胡志明市。越南國家銀行正在使用貨幣工具來支持流動性，但匯率壓力使管理變得複雜。分析師預測，銀行間利率將保持高位，影響銀行的淨利差，並促使其轉向多元化收入來源。近期迴歸低利率的可能性不大</p>

<p>HCM CITY — Interbank interest rates have remained elevated in the first months of 2026, reflecting tightening liquidity conditions as credit growth continues to outpace deposit mobilisation, according to analysts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>胡志明市——根據分析師的説法，2026 年初，銀行間利率保持在高位，反映出流動性條件的緊縮，因為信貸增長繼續超過存款動員。</p>
</div><p>Overnight lending rates between banks surged to as high as 17 per cent in early February, the highest level in roughly a decade, before easing. However, rates have stayed volatile, with overnight levels still hovering around 9 per cent in early April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2 月初，銀行間隔夜貸款利率飆升至 17%，為近十年來的最高水平，隨後有所回落。然而，利率仍然波動，4 月初的隔夜利率仍徘徊在 9% 左右。</p>
</div><p>The interbank market, where credit institutions borrow from one another to meet short-term liquidity needs, has come under increasing strain following a period of strong credit expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銀行間市場是信貸機構相互借貸以滿足短期流動性需求的地方，在經歷了一段強勁的信貸擴張後，面臨越來越大的壓力。</p>
</div><p>Data from the General Statistics Office show that as of the end of March, credit growth reached 2.15 per cent, while deposit growth lagged behind at just 0.44 per cent. This divergence has widened funding gaps across the banking system.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據總統計局的數據，截至 3 月底，信貸增長達到 2.15%，而存款增長僅為 0.44%。這種差異加大了銀行系統的資金缺口。</p>
</div><p>The imbalance is more pronounced in HCM City, where deposit growth stood at only 0.1 per cent in the first quarter, compared to a 1.5 per cent credit expansion, according to the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在胡志明市，這種不平衡更加明顯，第一季度存款增長僅為 0.1%，而信貸擴張為 1.5%，根據越南國家銀行（SBV）的數據。</p>
</div><p>As a result, loan-to-deposit ratios at several banks have exceeded 100 per cent, increasing reliance on interbank borrowing and pushing up funding costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，幾家銀行的貸款與存款比率超過了 100%，增加了對銀行間借貸的依賴，並推高了資金成本。</p>
</div><p>Analysts at Vietcombank Securities noted that liquidity pressures have been building since the second half of 2025, particularly among small and mid-sized joint-stock banks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>越南外貿銀行證券的分析師指出，自 2025 年下半年以來，流動性壓力不斷加大，特別是在中小型股份制銀行中。</p>
</div><p>“When banks’ capacity to absorb short-term shocks weakens, they become more dependent on interbank funding, contributing to higher interest rates,” the analysts said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師表示：“當銀行吸收短期衝擊的能力減弱時，它們對銀行間資金的依賴加大，從而導致利率上升。”</p>
</div><p>In response, the SBV has actively deployed monetary tools to support liquidity, including injecting funds through open market operations. At times, the central bank has offered up to VNĐ37 trillion (US$1.4 billion) in short-term lending with extended tenors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為回應，SBV 積極部署貨幣工具以支持流動性，包括通過公開市場操作注入資金。在某些時候，中央銀行提供了高達 37 萬億越南盾（14 億美元）的短期貸款，期限延長。</p>
</div><p>However, liquidity management has been complicated by exchange-rate pressures. The SBV has recently conducted forward sales of US dollars with 180-day tenors at a rate of VNĐ26,850 per dollar in an effort to stabilise the domestic currency amid a strong US dollar and global uncertainties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，流動性管理因匯率壓力而變得複雜。SBV 最近以每美元 26,850 越南盾的匯率進行了 180 天期限的美元遠期銷售，以努力在強勢美元和全球不確定性中穩定本幣。</p>
</div><p>According to Nguyễn Hoàn Niên, an analyst at Shinhan Securities, while this measure helps ease exchange-rate pressure, it also effectively absorbs a portion of đồng liquidity, contributing to tighter conditions in the banking system.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據新韓證券的分析師阮歡年（Nguyễn Hoàn Niên）的説法，雖然這一措施有助於緩解匯率壓力，但也有效地吸收了一部分越南盾流動性，導致銀行系統的條件更加緊張。</p>
</div><p>Market observers also highlight the issue of “localised liquidity shortages”, where funds are not efficiently redistributed from banks with surplus liquidity to those facing deficits, prolonging tight conditions in the interbank market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場觀察者還強調了 “局部流動性短缺” 的問題，即資金未能有效地從流動性過剩的銀行重新分配到面臨赤字的銀行，延長了銀行間市場的緊張狀況。</p>
</div><p>Despite rising interbank rates, their transmission to retail deposit rates remains uneven.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管銀行間利率上升，但其向零售存款利率的傳導仍然不均衡。</p>
</div><p>Experts note that the relationship between the two markets in Việt Nam does not always follow conventional patterns, partly due to structural characteristics and regulatory measures such as interest rate caps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>專家指出，越南兩個市場之間的關係並不總是遵循傳統模式，部分原因是結構特徵和利率上限等監管措施。</p>
</div><p>Interest income continues to account for a significant share, around 70-80 per cent, of Vietnamese banks’ total revenue, compared to about 30 per cent for many international peers, making the system more sensitive to funding cost fluctuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利息收入繼續佔越南銀行總收入的顯著份額，約為 70-80%，而許多國際同行的比例約為 30%，使得該系統對資金成本波動更加敏感。</p>
</div><p>Persistently high interbank rates are expected to put pressure on banks’ net interest margins, prompting lenders to diversify income sources, including expanding consumer lending and fee-based services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持續高企的銀行間利率預計將對銀行的淨利差施加壓力，促使貸款機構多元化收入來源，包括擴大消費貸款和基於費用的服務。</p>
</div><p>Analysts forecast that interbank rates are unlikely to decline sharply in the near term, with one-month tenors expected to stabilise around 6.8-7 per cent. Deposit rates are projected to range between 7 and 9 per cent per year, depending on the bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師預測，銀行間利率在短期內不太可能大幅下降，預計一個月的期限將穩定在 6.8-7%。存款利率預計將在每年 7% 到 9% 之間，具體取決於銀行。</p>
</div><p>In the context of ongoing exchange-rate pressures and limited policy room, experts say a return to the low interest-rate environment seen in previous years is unlikely in the short term, signalling continued higher funding costs for businesses and investors. — VNS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在持續的匯率壓力和有限的政策空間背景下，專家表示，短期內回到前幾年低利率環境的可能性不大，這意味着企業和投資者將面臨持續的高融資成本。——越南新聞社（VNS）</p>
</div>

由於流動性壓力，銀行間利率仍然處於高位