<p>TradingKey - 美國鋰礦股票在隔夜交易中領漲，Sigma Lithium (SGML) 領漲該行業，收盤上漲 17.1%；Lithium Americas (LAC) 上漲 7.62%；Albemarle (ALB) 上漲 6.79%；SQM (SQM) 收盤上漲 6.71%。</p>
<p>回顧過去一年，鋰電池行業持續走高，經歷了一波持續的反彈。在該行業中，Albemarle (ALB) 從美國與中國貿易戰後的低點 48.57 美元飆升至今年的高點 205 美元。主要驅動因素是由於人工智能計算能力需求上升，能源存儲需求超出預期。在此期間，碳酸鋰期貨從年中低點 59,000 元/噸反彈至 150,000 元/噸。然而，從近期表現來看，該行業似乎已經從之前單邊上漲的趨勢轉變為更加波動的區間震盪階段。</p>
<h2>影響股價波動的因素：</h2>
<p>目前，鋰行業的運營邏輯正在發生轉變。之前由能源存儲行業敍事驅動的估值上行正在轉向由供需基本面邏輯主導，受限於剛性供應約束和在能源危機及地緣政治博弈中同步擴張的需求。</p>
<p>自年初以來，反覆的地緣政治衝突，特別是美國與伊朗對峙的升級，衝擊了原油供應端。霍爾木茲海峽的長期封鎖導致一些中東油田停產，推動中期油價基線上升至高位。</p>
<p>在這種背景下，市場對鋰的需求因其成本效益和戰略價值而日益突出。此外，一些分析師指出，如果中東衝突持續，作為需求最大組成部分的動力電池需求有望出現趨勢性復甦。</p>
<p>與此同時，媒體報道稱，智利即將打破依賴銅作為唯一經濟支柱的傳統，首次在下週的年度世界銅大會上舉辦專門的一天鋰論壇。這一舉措表明該國正在加速其資源多元化戰略。</p>
<h2>2026 年下半年鋰供應可能緊張</h2>
<p>美國與伊朗衝突對鋰行業的主要影響不是可再生能源替代的敍事，而是對澳大利亞鋰礦柴油供應鏈的直接干擾——這一生產停滯風險市場尚未完全定價。澳大利亞約佔全球鋰產能的 30%，其生產過程完全依賴柴油。近 90% 的柴油依賴進口，庫存僅能覆蓋 15 到 30 天，因此能源供應中斷的風險至關重要。</p>
<p>此外，津巴布韋對鋰礦石的出口禁令加劇了政策不確定性，而國內鋰鹽廠在一月和二月的計劃維護，加上中國礦山生產重啓的停滯，進一步限制了供應彈性。</p>
<p>因此，市場對 2026 年鋰市場的預期已從輕微過剩轉變為緊平衡甚至結構性短缺。這一轉變是鋰價和鋰礦股票反彈的關鍵驅動因素。</p>
<h2>機構觀點：鋰供應預測集體下調</h2>
<p>股價上漲也受到主流機構下調鋰供應預測的推動。最近，幾家投資銀行預測，隨着鋰供應保持緊張，鋰價將進入上升軌道。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利發佈研究報告，將其 2026 年鋰供應預測下調至約 400,000 噸（低於年初大約 500,000 噸的初步估計）。該行預計市場供應將在 5 月至 8 月的旺季進一步收緊，預計從 9 月開始將出現短缺。總體而言，摩根士丹利預計鋰價將在 2026 年下半年呈上升趨勢，並指出當價格超過 250,000 元/噸時，需求彈性將顯現。</p>
<p>花旗指出，最新的鋰數據集顯示，本週庫存積累增加。該行預計，隨着津巴布韋的供應影響可能顯現，市場可能轉向去庫存；因此，近期壓力應在接下來的 3 到 4 周內逐漸緩解。針對年初至今對新能源汽車（NEV）電池需求的擔憂，Real Lithium 的數據顯示，2026 年前兩個月 NEV 電池安裝同比增長 18%，主要受商用車強勁需求和每輛車電池容量增加的推動。考慮到未來幾周月度供需動態應收緊，該行建議投資者買入鋰。</p>
<h2>接下來需要關注什麼？</h2>
<p>首先，必須關注需求端，包括持續的美國與伊朗衝突，因為高油價將推動動力電池需求上升。麥格理銀行預測，受強勁的能源存儲需求推動，全球鋰需求將在本十年末保持超過 20% 的年複合增長率（CAGR），即使電動車增長放緩。</p>
<p>在供應端，應關注津巴布韋新實施的鋰出口管制所帶來的供應格局變化。其他因素包括地緣政治衝突導致的能源供應中斷對澳大利亞鋰礦產能的影響，以及因許可證到期暫停後，CATL 大規模鋰礦的生產重啓和產能釋放的不確定性。</p>
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SGML

LITP

先進電池金屬和材料 ETF - Amplify

ILIT

鋰價指數 ETF - GlobalX

<p>美國鋰礦股票在一夜之間飆升，Sigma Lithium 上漲了 17.1%。該行業已從持續的上升趨勢轉變為更為波動的階段，受到影響石油供應的地緣政治衝突和對鋰需求增加的影響。分析師預測，由於供應中斷和政策不確定性，到 2026 年鋰供應將緊張，導致價格上漲趨勢。投資銀行已下調供應預測，預計市場將出現赤字。現在的關注點在於需求動態，特別是來自美伊衝突和能源儲存需求的影響，預計全球鋰需求將超過 20% 的年複合增長率</p>

<p>TradingKey - U.S. lithium mining stocks led gains overnight, with Sigma Lithium (SGML) leading the sector to close up 17.1%; Lithium Americas (LAC) rose 7.62%; Albemarle (ALB) climbed 6.79%; and SQM (SQM) closed up 6.71%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 美國鋰礦股票在隔夜交易中領漲，Sigma Lithium (SGML) 領漲該行業，收盤上漲 17.1%；Lithium Americas (LAC) 上漲 7.62%；Albemarle (ALB) 上漲 6.79%；SQM (SQM) 收盤上漲 6.71%。</p>
</div><p>Reflecting on the past year, the lithium battery sector has trended consistently higher, experiencing a sustained rally. Within the sector, Albemarle (ALB) also surged from its post-U.S.-China trade war low of $48.57 to a high of $205 this year. The key driver was higher-than-expected energy storage demand fueled by rising AI computing power needs. During this period, lithium carbonate futures rebounded from a mid-year low of 59,000 yuan per ton to 150,000 yuan per ton. However, judging by recent performance, the sector appears to have transitioned from its previous one-sided uptrend into a more volatile, range-bound phase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回顧過去一年，鋰電池行業持續走高，經歷了一波持續的反彈。在該行業中，Albemarle (ALB) 從美國與中國貿易戰後的低點 48.57 美元飆升至今年的高點 205 美元。主要驅動因素是由於人工智能計算能力需求上升，能源存儲需求超出預期。在此期間，碳酸鋰期貨從年中低點 59,000 元/噸反彈至 150,000 元/噸。然而，從近期表現來看，該行業似乎已經從之前單邊上漲的趨勢轉變為更加波動的區間震盪階段。</p>
</div><h2>Factors influencing stock price volatility:</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>影響股價波動的因素：</h2>
</div><p>Currently, the operational logic of the lithium sector is undergoing a transition. The valuation upside previously driven by the energy storage industry narrative is shifting toward a supply-demand fundamental logic, dominated by rigid supply constraints and synchronized demand expansion amid energy crises and geopolitical maneuvering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，鋰行業的運營邏輯正在發生轉變。之前由能源存儲行業敍事驅動的估值上行正在轉向由供需基本面邏輯主導，受限於剛性供應約束和在能源危機及地緣政治博弈中同步擴張的需求。</p>
</div><p>Since the start of the year, recurring geopolitical conflicts, particularly the escalation of the U.S.-Iran standoff, have shocked the crude oil supply side. The prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered production halts in some Middle Eastern oil fields, pushing the mid-term oil price baseline to elevated levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自年初以來，反覆的地緣政治衝突，特別是美國與伊朗對峙的升級，衝擊了原油供應端。霍爾木茲海峽的長期封鎖導致一些中東油田停產，推動中期油價基線上升至高位。</p>
</div><p>In this context, market demand for lithium has become increasingly prominent due to its cost-effectiveness and strategic value. Furthermore, some analysts indicate that if the conflict in the Middle East persists, demand for power batteries—the largest component of demand—is poised for a trend-based recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種背景下，市場對鋰的需求因其成本效益和戰略價值而日益突出。此外，一些分析師指出，如果中東衝突持續，作為需求最大組成部分的動力電池需求有望出現趨勢性復甦。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, media reports suggest that Chile is about to break its tradition of relying on copper as its sole economic pillar by hosting a dedicated one-day lithium forum for the first time at next week’s annual World Copper Conference. This move signals the country is accelerating its resource diversification strategy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，媒體報道稱，智利即將打破依賴銅作為唯一經濟支柱的傳統，首次在下週的年度世界銅大會上舉辦專門的一天鋰論壇。這一舉措表明該國正在加速其資源多元化戰略。</p>
</div><h2>Lithium supply may run tight in H2 2026</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2026 年下半年鋰供應可能緊張</h2>
</div><p>The primary impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict on the lithium sector is not the narrative of renewable energy substitution, but a direct disruption to the diesel supply chain for Australian lithium mines—a production-halt risk exposure that the market has yet to fully price in. Australia accounts for roughly 30% of global lithium capacity, and its production process is entirely dependent on diesel. With nearly 90% of its diesel imported and inventories covering only 15 to 30 days, the risk of energy supply disruption is critical.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國與伊朗衝突對鋰行業的主要影響不是可再生能源替代的敍事，而是對澳大利亞鋰礦柴油供應鏈的直接干擾——這一生產停滯風險市場尚未完全定價。澳大利亞約佔全球鋰產能的 30%，其生產過程完全依賴柴油。近 90% 的柴油依賴進口，庫存僅能覆蓋 15 到 30 天，因此能源供應中斷的風險至關重要。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Zimbabwe's export ban on lithium ore has heightened policy uncertainty, while domestic lithium salt plants' scheduled maintenance in January and February, coupled with stalled production restarts at Chinese mines, has further constrained supply elasticity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，津巴布韋對鋰礦石的出口禁令加劇了政策不確定性，而國內鋰鹽廠在一月和二月的計劃維護，加上中國礦山生產重啓的停滯，進一步限制了供應彈性。</p>
</div><p>Consequently, expectations for the lithium market in 2026 have shifted from a slight surplus to a tight balance or even a structural deficit. This shift serves as a key driver behind the rally in lithium prices and lithium mining equities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，市場對 2026 年鋰市場的預期已從輕微過剩轉變為緊平衡甚至結構性短缺。這一轉變是鋰價和鋰礦股票反彈的關鍵驅動因素。</p>
</div><h2>Institutional Views: Collective Downward Revision of Lithium Supply Forecasts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>機構觀點：鋰供應預測集體下調</h2>
</div><p>The rise in stock prices is also driven by mainstream institutions' downward revisions of lithium supply forecasts. Recently, several investment banks have predicted that lithium prices will enter an upward trajectory as the lithium supply remains tight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股價上漲也受到主流機構下調鋰供應預測的推動。最近，幾家投資銀行預測，隨着鋰供應保持緊張，鋰價將進入上升軌道。</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley released a research report lowering its 2026 lithium supply forecast to approximately 400,000 tons (down from the initial estimate of roughly 500,000 tons at the start of the year). The bank expects market supply to tighten further during the peak season from May to August, with a deficit emerging starting in September. Overall, Morgan Stanley expects lithium prices to trend upward in the second half of 2026, noting that demand elasticity will manifest when prices exceed 250,000 yuan per ton.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利發佈研究報告，將其 2026 年鋰供應預測下調至約 400,000 噸（低於年初大約 500,000 噸的初步估計）。該行預計市場供應將在 5 月至 8 月的旺季進一步收緊，預計從 9 月開始將出現短缺。總體而言，摩根士丹利預計鋰價將在 2026 年下半年呈上升趨勢，並指出當價格超過 250,000 元/噸時，需求彈性將顯現。</p>
</div><p>Citi noted that the latest lithium dataset shows weekly inventory accumulation increased this week. The bank expects that as supply impacts from Zimbabwe likely emerge, the market may shift toward destocking; therefore, recent pressures should gradually alleviate within the next 3 to 4 weeks. Addressing concerns over year-to-date demand for new energy vehicle (NEV) batteries, data from Real Lithium shows that NEV battery installations grew 18% year-on-year in the first two months of 2026, primarily driven by robust demand for commercial vehicles and an increase in battery capacity per vehicle. Given that monthly supply-demand dynamics should tighten in the coming weeks, the bank recommends that investors buy lithium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>花旗指出，最新的鋰數據集顯示，本週庫存積累增加。該行預計，隨着津巴布韋的供應影響可能顯現，市場可能轉向去庫存；因此，近期壓力應在接下來的 3 到 4 周內逐漸緩解。針對年初至今對新能源汽車（NEV）電池需求的擔憂，Real Lithium 的數據顯示，2026 年前兩個月 NEV 電池安裝同比增長 18%，主要受商用車強勁需求和每輛車電池容量增加的推動。考慮到未來幾周月度供需動態應收緊，該行建議投資者買入鋰。</p>
</div><h2>What to watch next?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>接下來需要關注什麼？</h2>
</div><p>First, attention must be focused on the demand side, including the persistence of the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, as high oil prices will drive up demand for power batteries. Macquarie Bank predicts that, fueled by robust demand for energy storage, global lithium demand will maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% through the end of this decade, even as electric vehicle growth slows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，必須關注需求端，包括持續的美國與伊朗衝突，因為高油價將推動動力電池需求上升。麥格理銀行預測，受強勁的能源存儲需求推動，全球鋰需求將在本十年末保持超過 20% 的年複合增長率（CAGR），即使電動車增長放緩。</p>
</div><p>On the supply side, focus should be on changes in the supply landscape resulting from Zimbabwe's newly implemented lithium export controls. Other factors include the impact of energy supply disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts on Australian lithium mining capacity, as well as uncertainties surrounding the production restart and capacity release of CATL's large-scale lithium mines following their suspension due to permit expirations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在供應端，應關注津巴布韋新實施的鋰出口管制所帶來的供應格局變化。其他因素包括地緣政治衝突導致的能源供應中斷對澳大利亞鋰礦產能的影響，以及因許可證到期暫停後，CATL 大規模鋰礦的生產重啓和產能釋放的不確定性。</p>
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Overnight US Lithium Stocks Lead Gains; Lithium Sector Operating Logic Sees Transition of Old and New as Geopolitical Conflict May Raise Sector Pivot Again?

隔夜美國鋰股領漲；鋰行業的運營邏輯正在經歷新舊交替，地緣政治衝突可能再次推動行業轉型？