<p>紐約，4 月 14 日（路透社）——美國股市回到了伊朗戰爭開始六週前的水平，投資者表示這反映了對沖突不會持久的押注。但如果這種想法是錯誤的呢？</p>
<p>儘管與 2 月 27 日相比，基準標普 500 指數的回調發生在截然不同的投資背景下，正是在美國 - 以色列軍事打擊開始中東衝突之前。油價上漲了約 40%。對通貨膨脹的擔憂推動了基準國債收益率的上升。這些擔憂使市場在很大程度上排除了今年預期的降息。</p>
<p>如果這些因素持續存在，可能會對股票表現構成障礙。</p>
<p>“人們對這一切能夠迅速解決抱有很大的自滿。市場定價反映出我們有一個退路，” Hirtle Callaghan 的首席投資官 Brad Conger 表示，該公司管理着來自捐贈基金和基金會的資產。“我認為我們現在的情況比 2 月 27 日要糟得多，但價格卻是一樣的。”</p>
<p>投資者正在抓住他們認為的堅實經濟背景，特別是自戰爭開始以來，企業利潤的強勁前景實際上有所改善。他們也意識到在這場持續三年的牛市中，股市的韌性，並擔心錯過反彈機會。</p>
<p>戰爭風險被視為短暫的</p>
<p>在危機開始後的最初幾周下跌後，標普 500 指數已經反彈。該指數在 3 月底時較 1 月底的歷史高點下跌超過 9%，幾乎達到了 10% 的回調水平。標普 500 指數在戰爭開始後周一收盤上漲 0.1%，距離歷史最高點僅超過 1%。週二，股票再次上漲，標普 500 指數當天上漲了 1%。</p>
<p>在上週達成的為期兩週的停火協議後，關於解決方案的樂觀情緒加速上升。但局勢仍然充滿不確定性，投資者仍在為與戰爭相關的發展可能導致資產波動做好準備。</p>
<p>市場正在關注 “短期風險，這些風險將在相對較短的時間內被克服，而不是開始一個新的……高通脹、高能源價格、高利率的時代，” Chase Investment Counsel Corp.的總裁 Peter Tuz 表示。“因為如果這是新的時代，那麼幾乎沒有理由相信市場會像現在這樣強勁。”</p>
<p>油價現在上漲，未來可能會減少？</p>
<p>股票表現的核心是油價的波動。持續上漲的原油價格將給消費者帶來壓力，他們需要在汽油上花費更多，同時也會提高企業的成本。</p>
<p>投資者預計戰爭將在短期內結束的一個跡象是，市場顯示油價預計到年底將更加温和，Edward Jones 的高級全球投資策略師 Angelo Kourkafas 表示。根據 LSEG 的數據，美國原油的前月合約徘徊在每桶約 95 美元，而 12 月合約為 77 美元。</p>
<p>“市場現在將能源中斷視為短期問題，” Kourkafas 説。“有一種觀念，即是的，確實存在很多短期干擾，但這是暫時的。一旦我們過去了這一點，我們將回到之前的經濟韌性。”</p>
<p>油價的上漲已經影響了美國的通貨膨脹，3 月份的消費者價格指數月度上漲幅度為近四年來最大。</p>
<p>通貨膨脹的擔憂使投資者降低了對美聯儲降息的預期，這曾是對美國股票樂觀的來源。根據截至週二的 LSEG 數據，美聯儲基金期貨最後定價僅為 12 月降息 6 個基點，低於一個標準的 25 個基點的降息。在戰爭之前，預計到 12 月將有大約兩次這樣的 25 個基點的降息。</p>
<p>油價驅動的通貨膨脹也是推動國債收益率上升的主要原因。基準 10 年期國債收益率最後約為 4.3%，高於 2 月 27 日的 3.96%。</p>
<p>更高的基準收益率可能會對股票表現構成阻力，包括通過提高企業和消費者的借貸成本。</p>
<p>盈利前景提振股票</p>
<p>自戰爭開始以來，股票的一個積極因素是：對美國企業利潤的預期更加強勁。根據 LSEG IBES 的數據顯示，預計標普 500 公司的盈利將在 2026 年增長 19%，而在戰爭開始之前預計增長為 15%。</p>
<p>增加的盈利前景無疑使股票看起來更具吸引力。根據 LSEG Datastream 的數據，基於未來 12 個月的利潤預期，標普 500 的市盈率在週一為 20.4，低於去年 10 月底的 23 以上。</p>
<p>“儘管油價飆升及其對通貨膨脹的影響，預期仍在不斷上升，” Commonwealth Financial Network 的首席市場策略師 Chris Fasciano 表示。“更具吸引力的估值和更高的盈利預期讓我對當前的背景感到滿意。”</p>
<p>樂觀的盈利前景將在未來幾周受到考驗，因為公司將公佈第一季度的業績。</p>
<p>“人們真的期待今年整體公司會有驚人的盈利增長，” Tuz 説。“現在説這是否會成為一個準確的數字還為時尚早。”</p>
<p>（紐約報道，Lewis Krauskopf；編輯：Colin Barr 和 Matthew Lewis）</p>

標普 500 指數

和順石油

<p>美國股市已恢復到戰前水平，儘管油價和國債收益率上升，投資者對企業利潤持樂觀態度。標普 500 指數在初期下跌後反彈，收盤時僅比歷史最高點低 1%。雖然通脹擔憂降低了對美聯儲降息的預期，但市場預計衝突將得到解決，認為當前風險是暫時的。標普 500 公司盈利預期有所改善，使得股票更具吸引力，即使更高的收益率可能對股票表現構成挑戰</p>

<p>NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. stock market is back to where it was when the Iran war began over six weeks ago, which investors say is a reflection of bets that the conflict will not be long-lasting. But what if that thinking is wrong?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>紐約，4 月 14 日（路透社）——美國股市回到了伊朗戰爭開始六週前的水平，投資者表示這反映了對沖突不會持久的押注。但如果這種想法是錯誤的呢？</p>
</div><p>The benchmark S&amp;P 500's round trip comes despite a sharply different investing backdrop compared with February 27, just before the U.S.-Israeli military strikes began the Middle East conflict. Oil prices are some 40% higher. Concerns about inflation have driven up benchmark Treasury yields. Those same concerns have led markets to largely rule out previously anticipated interest-rate cuts this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管與 2 月 27 日相比，基準標普 500 指數的回調發生在截然不同的投資背景下，正是在美國 - 以色列軍事打擊開始中東衝突之前。油價上漲了約 40%。對通貨膨脹的擔憂推動了基準國債收益率的上升。這些擔憂使市場在很大程度上排除了今年預期的降息。</p>
</div><p>All of those factors could present obstacles to stock performance, should they persist.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果這些因素持續存在，可能會對股票表現構成障礙。</p>
</div><p>&#34;There's a lot of complacency that this can resolve itself fast. What's priced in is that we have an off-ramp,&#34; said Brad Conger, chief investment officer at Hirtle Callaghan, which oversees assets from endowments and foundations. &#34;I think we're a lot worse off than February 27th, and we're at the same price.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“人們對這一切能夠迅速解決抱有很大的自滿。市場定價反映出我們有一個退路，” Hirtle Callaghan 的首席投資官 Brad Conger 表示，該公司管理着來自捐贈基金和基金會的資產。“我認為我們現在的情況比 2 月 27 日要糟得多，但價格卻是一樣的。”</p>
</div><p>Investors are seizing on what they see as a solid economic backdrop, in particular a strong outlook for corporate profits that has actually improved since the war began. They are also mindful of the stock market's resilience during this three-year-old bull market and wary of missing out on rallies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者正在抓住他們認為的堅實經濟背景，特別是自戰爭開始以來，企業利潤的強勁前景實際上有所改善。他們也意識到在這場持續三年的牛市中，股市的韌性，並擔心錯過反彈機會。</p>
</div><p>WAR RISKS VIEWED AS FLEETING</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>戰爭風險被視為短暫的</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 has rebounded after dropping in the initial weeks after the crisis began. The index in late March closed down over 9% from its late-January all-time high, nearly reaching a 10% decline that would have indicated a correction. The S&amp;P 500 on Monday closed up 0.1% since the war began, and just over 1% away from its record high. Stocks were moving higher again on Tuesday, with the S&amp;P 500 last up 1% on the day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在危機開始後的最初幾周下跌後，標普 500 指數已經反彈。該指數在 3 月底時較 1 月底的歷史高點下跌超過 9%，幾乎達到了 10% 的回調水平。標普 500 指數在戰爭開始後周一收盤上漲 0.1%，距離歷史最高點僅超過 1%。週二，股票再次上漲，標普 500 指數當天上漲了 1%。</p>
</div><p>Optimism about a resolution accelerated following a two-week ceasefire agreement reached last week. But much about the situation remained uncertain and investors were still bracing for war-related developments to drive asset volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上週達成的為期兩週的停火協議後，關於解決方案的樂觀情緒加速上升。但局勢仍然充滿不確定性，投資者仍在為與戰爭相關的發展可能導致資產波動做好準備。</p>
</div><p>The market was looking at &#34;temporary risks which will be overcome in fairly short order, as opposed to being the start of a new ... regime of higher inflation, higher energy prices, higher interest rates,&#34; said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel Corp. &#34;Because if that were the new regime, there is very little reason to believe the market would be as strong as it is right now.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場正在關注 “短期風險，這些風險將在相對較短的時間內被克服，而不是開始一個新的……高通脹、高能源價格、高利率的時代，” Chase Investment Counsel Corp.的總裁 Peter Tuz 表示。“因為如果這是新的時代，那麼幾乎沒有理由相信市場會像現在這樣強勁。”</p>
</div><p>OIL HIGHER NOW, LESS SO LATER?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油價現在上漲，未來可能會減少？</p>
</div><p>Central to the performance of stocks is the movement in oil prices. Sustainably higher crude prices stand to pressure consumers who have to spend more on gasoline, while also raising costs for businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票表現的核心是油價的波動。持續上漲的原油價格將給消費者帶來壓力，他們需要在汽油上花費更多，同時也會提高企業的成本。</p>
</div><p>One sign that investors are expecting the war to wind down in the near term is markets showing that oil prices are expected to be more moderate by year-end, said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones. The front-month contract for U.S. crude is hovering at around $95 a barrel, while the December contract is at $77, according to LSEG data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者預計戰爭將在短期內結束的一個跡象是，市場顯示油價預計到年底將更加温和，Edward Jones 的高級全球投資策略師 Angelo Kourkafas 表示。根據 LSEG 的數據，美國原油的前月合約徘徊在每桶約 95 美元，而 12 月合約為 77 美元。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Markets are now seeing the energy disruption as something that is near-term,&#34; Kourkafas said. &#34;There is this notion that, yes, there is a lot of near-term disruption, but it is temporary in nature. And then once we go past that, we're going to go back to the prevailing economic resilience that we had before.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“市場現在將能源中斷視為短期問題，” Kourkafas 説。“有一種觀念，即是的，確實存在很多短期干擾，但這是暫時的。一旦我們過去了這一點，我們將回到之前的經濟韌性。”</p>
</div><p>The rise in oil prices has already influenced U.S. inflation, with the monthly Consumer Price Index rising in March by the most in nearly four years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油價的上漲已經影響了美國的通貨膨脹，3 月份的消費者價格指數月度上漲幅度為近四年來最大。</p>
</div><p>Inflationary fears have led investors to dial back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which had been a source of optimism about U.S. equities heading in to the year. Fed funds futures were last pricing in just 6 basis points of easing by December, according to LSEG data as of Tuesday, or less than one standard 25-basis-point cut. Prior to the war, roughly two such quarter-percentage-point cuts had been expected by December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通貨膨脹的擔憂使投資者降低了對美聯儲降息的預期，這曾是對美國股票樂觀的來源。根據截至週二的 LSEG 數據，美聯儲基金期貨最後定價僅為 12 月降息 6 個基點，低於一個標準的 25 個基點的降息。在戰爭之前，預計到 12 月將有大約兩次這樣的 25 個基點的降息。</p>
</div><p>Oil-driven inflation is also a main culprit driving up Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was last around 4.3%, up from 3.96% on February 27.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油價驅動的通貨膨脹也是推動國債收益率上升的主要原因。基準 10 年期國債收益率最後約為 4.3%，高於 2 月 27 日的 3.96%。</p>
</div><p>Higher benchmark yields could present headwinds for equity performance, including by translating into higher borrowing costs for companies and consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更高的基準收益率可能會對股票表現構成阻力，包括通過提高企業和消費者的借貸成本。</p>
</div><p>EARNINGS OUTLOOK BUOYS STOCKS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>盈利前景提振股票</p>
</div><p>One positive factor for stocks since the war began: Estimates for U.S. corporate profits are even more robust. S&amp;P 500 companies are expected to increase earnings by 19% in 2026, up from an expected 15% increase just before the war began, according to LSEG IBES.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自戰爭開始以來，股票的一個積極因素是：對美國企業利潤的預期更加強勁。根據 LSEG IBES 的數據顯示，預計標普 500 公司的盈利將在 2026 年增長 19%，而在戰爭開始之前預計增長為 15%。</p>
</div><p>The increased earnings outlook has arguably made stocks look more enticing. The price-to-earnings ratio for the S&amp;P 500, based on profit estimates for the next 12 months, stood at 20.4 on Monday, down from over 23 in late October, according to LSEG Datastream.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>增加的盈利前景無疑使股票看起來更具吸引力。根據 LSEG Datastream 的數據，基於未來 12 個月的利潤預期，標普 500 的市盈率在週一為 20.4，低於去年 10 月底的 23 以上。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Estimates keep going higher despite the surge in oil prices and the implications that has for inflation,&#34; said Chris Fasciano, chief market strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network. &#34;More attractive valuations and higher earnings estimates make me feel OK about the backdrop.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“儘管油價飆升及其對通貨膨脹的影響，預期仍在不斷上升，” Commonwealth Financial Network 的首席市場策略師 Chris Fasciano 表示。“更具吸引力的估值和更高的盈利預期讓我對當前的背景感到滿意。”</p>
</div><p>The upbeat earnings outlook will be tested in the coming weeks as companies report their first-quarter results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>樂觀的盈利前景將在未來幾周受到考驗，因為公司將公佈第一季度的業績。</p>
</div><p>&#34;People are really expecting astounding earnings growth from companies in aggregate this year,&#34; Tuz said. &#34;It's way too early to say whether it's going to prove to be an accurate number or not.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“人們真的期待今年整體公司會有驚人的盈利增長，” Tuz 説。“現在説這是否會成為一個準確的數字還為時尚早。”</p>
</div><p>(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf in New York; Editing by Colin Barr and Matthew Lewis)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（紐約報道，Lewis Krauskopf；編輯：Colin Barr 和 Matthew Lewis）</p>
</div>

Analysis-Higher oil prices, higher yields, no more rate cuts? No problem for US stocks

- 美國股市回到伊朗戰爭開始時的水平，反映投資者對短期衝突的預期。  
- 標普 500 指數漲幅有限，油價升高和通脹擔憂推動國債收益率上升。  
- 企業盈利前景樂觀，料將支撐股市表現，預計未來收益增長將顯著。

Fidelity

西方石油

iShares MSCI歐澳遠東成長指數ETF

羅素 2000 價值股指數 ETF - iShares

3 倍做多標普 500 ETF - Direxion

超大盤股成長 ETF - Vanguard

美國油氣勘探與生產 ETF - iShares

中盤價值股 ETF - Vanguard

標普 500 ETF - Vanguard

核心美國價值 ETF - iShares

美國小盤價值股 ETF - Avantis

超大盤股價值 ETF - Vanguard

煉油公司指數 ETF - VanEck Vectors

美國大盤成長股 ETF - Charles Schwab

全美成長股指數 MSCI ETF - Vanguard

美國小盤價值股 ETF - Vanguard

美國小盤成長股 ETF - Vanguard

油氣開採 ETF - SPDR

Avantis US Large Cap Value ETF

標普油氣設備與服務 ETF - SPDR

核心標普美國增長 ETF - iShares

標普 500 ETF - iShares

美國布倫特原油期貨基金

油氣服務 ETF - Market Vectors

K-1 免費原油策略 ETF - ProShares

F三星原油期

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

國泰標普500ETF

標普 500 指數股票型基金

FGX原油

標普全球能源股指數 ETF - iShares

能源業 ETF - Vanguard

美國 WTI 原油 ETF

美國石油設備與服務 ETF - iShares

羅素 1000 成長指數 ETF - iShares

Defiance Oil Enhanced Options Income ETF

博時標普500ETF

標普 600 小盤價值股 ETF - SPDR

分析 - 油價上漲，收益率上升，不再降息？這對美國股市來説不是問題