<p>在經歷了一年中最長的連勝後，英鎊在週三稍作喘息，兑美元下滑，因為對伊朗戰爭可能解決的情緒改善對避險的美元造成了壓力。</p>
<p>隨着投資者樂觀情緒的上升，美元跌至六週低點，促使英鎊近期漲幅有所放緩。</p>
<p>英鎊最後穩定在 1.357 美元，自三月底觸及四個月低點以來上漲了近 3%。</p>
<p>該貨幣連續上漲了七個交易日，創下自去年四月以來最長的連勝紀錄。</p>
<p><strong>國際貨幣基金組織大幅下調英國經濟增長預期</strong></p>
<p>儘管近期反彈，分析師警告稱，英鎊的強勢可能不會持續，因經濟風險不斷增加。</p>
<p>國際貨幣基金組織已將英國 2026 年的經濟增長預測下調至 0.8%，低於之前的 1.3%。</p>
<p>這是主要發達經濟體中最嚴重的下調，也是七國集團中最大的修正。</p>
<p>此次下調反映了對伊朗戰爭經濟影響日益增長的擔憂，該戰爭擾亂了全球能源市場，影響了增長前景。</p>
<p><strong>能源價格推高借貸成本</strong></p>
<p>英國對進口天然氣的依賴加大了經濟壓力。</p>
<p>自衝突開始以來，天然氣價格上漲了約 40%，加劇了通脹壓力。</p>
<p>能源成本的上升也推高了政府的借貸成本。</p>
<p>自二月底以來，英國兩年期國債收益率上漲了近 70 個基點，達到約 4.2%，成為主要經濟體中表現最差的。</p>
<p>收益率的急劇上升使交易員開始預計英國央行可能在今年晚些時候加息。</p>
<p><strong>隨着情緒改善，利率預期發生變化</strong></p>
<p>然而，關於霍爾木茲海峽石油運輸中斷可能緩解的情緒改善，導致這些預期有所緩和。</p>
<p>分析師指出，隨着市場樂觀情緒的增長，激進加息的緊迫性可能減弱，從而對英鎊施加下行壓力。</p>
<p>據路透社報道，ING 策略師 Francesco Pesole 表示：&#34;總的來説，最新的發展讓我們對英國短期利率將比歐元區更有下降空間的判斷充滿信心，這應該在短期內為歐元/英鎊提供持久支持。&#34;</p>
<p>他補充道：&#34;……這一對貨幣在改善的風險情緒中受到了一些影響，但一旦塵埃落定，利率差異將重新成為主要驅動因素。&#34;</p>
<p><strong>歐元與英鎊的動態仍然受到關注</strong></p>
<p>儘管近期發展，歐元兑英鎊仍然承壓。</p>
<p>自衝突開始以來，歐元兑英鎊仍下跌近 1%，最後穩定在 86.94 便士。</p>
<p>這表明，儘管英鎊有所停頓，但更廣泛的貨幣動態仍受相對經濟前景和利率預期的影響。</p>
<p><strong>英格蘭銀行強調通脹風險</strong></p>
<p>與此同時，英格蘭銀行政策制定者梅根·格林強調了圍繞通脹和增長的不確定性。</p>
<p>她在週二表示，可能需要幾個月才能全面評估能源價格衝擊對英國經濟的長期影響。</p>
<p>格林補充説，通脹的上行風險仍然是一個關鍵問題，這表明政策制定者可能需要在數據不明確的情況下采取預防性措施。</p>
<p>總體而言，英鎊近期的反彈似乎脆弱，因為地緣政治發展和經濟不確定性繼續影響市場預期。</p>

LGBP

SGBP

PUS5

英鎊 做多 - CurrencyShares

<p>英鎊在經歷了一波顯著的上漲後暫停，因對伊朗戰爭的情緒改善而對美元下滑。儘管自三月以來上漲了近 3%，分析師警告稱，英鎊的強勢可能是短暫的，原因包括國際貨幣基金組織對英國經濟增長前景的急劇下調。能源價格上漲導致通脹和借貸成本增加，引發了市場對英格蘭銀行可能加息的猜測。總體而言，地緣政治緊張局勢和經濟不確定性繼續影響市場對英鎊的預期</p>

<p>The British pound took a breather on Wednesday after its longest winning streak in a year, slipping against the US dollar as improving sentiment around a possible resolution to the Iran war weighed on the safe-haven greenback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在經歷了一年中最長的連勝後，英鎊在週三稍作喘息，兑美元下滑，因為對伊朗戰爭可能解決的情緒改善對避險的美元造成了壓力。</p>
</div><p>The dollar had fallen to six-week lows as investor optimism picked up, prompting some cooling in sterling’s recent gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着投資者樂觀情緒的上升，美元跌至六週低點，促使英鎊近期漲幅有所放緩。</p>
</div><p>Sterling was last steady at $1.357, after rising nearly 3% since hitting four-month lows at the end of March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英鎊最後穩定在 1.357 美元，自三月底觸及四個月低點以來上漲了近 3%。</p>
</div><p>The currency had advanced for seven consecutive sessions, marking its longest streak since a 10-day run last April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該貨幣連續上漲了七個交易日，創下自去年四月以來最長的連勝紀錄。</p>
</div><p><strong>IMF cuts UK growth outlook sharply</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>國際貨幣基金組織大幅下調英國經濟增長預期</strong></p>
</div><p>Despite the recent rally, analysts warned that sterling’s strength may not last long due to mounting economic risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管近期反彈，分析師警告稱，英鎊的強勢可能不會持續，因經濟風險不斷增加。</p>
</div><p>The International Monetary Fund has downgraded Britain’s economic growth forecast for 2026 to 0.8%, down from a previous estimate of 1.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國際貨幣基金組織已將英國 2026 年的經濟增長預測下調至 0.8%，低於之前的 1.3%。</p>
</div><p>This marks the sharpest downgrade among major advanced economies and the largest revision for any Group of Seven nation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是主要發達經濟體中最嚴重的下調，也是七國集團中最大的修正。</p>
</div><p>The downgrade reflects growing concerns over the economic fallout from the Iran war, which has disrupted global energy markets and weighed on growth prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此次下調反映了對伊朗戰爭經濟影響日益增長的擔憂，該戰爭擾亂了全球能源市場，影響了增長前景。</p>
</div><p><strong>Energy prices push borrowing costs higher</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>能源價格推高借貸成本</strong></p>
</div><p>The UK’s reliance on imported natural gas has intensified pressure on the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英國對進口天然氣的依賴加大了經濟壓力。</p>
</div><p>Gas prices have surged roughly 40% since the conflict began, adding to inflationary pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自衝突開始以來，天然氣價格上漲了約 40%，加劇了通脹壓力。</p>
</div><p>Rising energy costs have also driven up government borrowing costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源成本的上升也推高了政府的借貸成本。</p>
</div><p>Two-year UK bond yields have climbed nearly 70 basis points since late February, reaching around 4.2%, making them the worst-performing among major economies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自二月底以來，英國兩年期國債收益率上漲了近 70 個基點，達到約 4.2%，成為主要經濟體中表現最差的。</p>
</div><p>This sharp rise in yields has led traders to price in the possibility of interest rate hikes by the Bank of England later this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>收益率的急劇上升使交易員開始預計英國央行可能在今年晚些時候加息。</p>
</div><p><strong>Rate expectations shift as sentiment improves</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>隨着情緒改善，利率預期發生變化</strong></p>
</div><p>However, improving sentiment around a potential easing of disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz has led to some moderation in those expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，關於霍爾木茲海峽石油運輸中斷可能緩解的情緒改善，導致這些預期有所緩和。</p>
</div><p>Analysts noted that as market optimism grows, the urgency for aggressive rate hikes may diminish, putting downward pressure on the pound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師指出，隨着市場樂觀情緒的增長，激進加息的緊迫性可能減弱，從而對英鎊施加下行壓力。</p>
</div><p>As quoted in a Reuters report, ING strategist Francesco Pesole said, &#34;All in all, the latest developments keep us confident with our call that front-end rates have further to fall in the UK than the euro zone and that should offer lasting support to euro/sterling beyond the near-term.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>據路透社報道，ING 策略師 Francesco Pesole 表示：&#34;總的來説，最新的發展讓我們對英國短期利率將比歐元區更有下降空間的判斷充滿信心，這應該在短期內為歐元/英鎊提供持久支持。&#34;</p>
</div><p>He added, &#34;...The pair is suffering a bit from improved risk sentiment, but rate differentials will return as primary drivers once the dust has settled.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他補充道：&#34;……這一對貨幣在改善的風險情緒中受到了一些影響，但一旦塵埃落定，利率差異將重新成為主要驅動因素。&#34;</p>
</div><p><strong>Euro-sterling dynamics remain in focus</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>歐元與英鎊的動態仍然受到關注</strong></p>
</div><p>The euro remained under pressure against the pound despite recent developments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管近期發展，歐元兑英鎊仍然承壓。</p>
</div><p>The euro is still down nearly 1% against sterling since the start of the conflict and was last flat at 86.94 pence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自衝突開始以來，歐元兑英鎊仍下跌近 1%，最後穩定在 86.94 便士。</p>
</div><p>This suggests that while sterling has paused, broader currency dynamics remain influenced by relative economic outlooks and rate expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這表明，儘管英鎊有所停頓，但更廣泛的貨幣動態仍受相對經濟前景和利率預期的影響。</p>
</div><p><strong>BoE highlights inflation risks</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英格蘭銀行強調通脹風險</strong></p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene emphasised the uncertainty surrounding inflation and growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，英格蘭銀行政策制定者梅根·格林強調了圍繞通脹和增長的不確定性。</p>
</div><p>Speaking on Tuesday, she said, it could take months to fully assess the long-term impact of the energy price shock on the UK economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她在週二表示，可能需要幾個月才能全面評估能源價格衝擊對英國經濟的長期影響。</p>
</div><p>Greene added that upside risks to inflation remain a key concern, signalling that policymakers may need to act pre-emptively despite limited data clarity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>格林補充説，通脹的上行風險仍然是一個關鍵問題，這表明政策制定者可能需要在數據不明確的情況下采取預防性措施。</p>
</div><p>Overall, the pound’s recent rally appears fragile as geopolitical developments and economic uncertainties continue to shape market expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，英鎊近期的反彈似乎脆弱，因為地緣政治發展和經濟不確定性繼續影響市場預期。</p>
</div>

在戰爭風險衝擊英國經濟的情況下，英鎊能否保持其漲勢？