<p>如果你在過去一年裏一直持有科技股，那麼你可能感受到了市場的變化。</p>
<p>2026 年第一季度並不友好。軟件類股票遭受重創。一些半導體股票回落。即使是表現最好的科技公司也在拋售，大家開始問：</p>
<p>如果人工智能不僅僅是在推動這些公司，而是在顛覆它們呢？</p>
<p>這就是一切的開始。基於恐懼的資金輪換開始在不相關的科技領域發生。短時間內，大家開始認真考慮這一主題的主導地位。</p>
<p>但與此同時，還有其他事情在發生。當價格下跌時，基本面卻在朝相反的方向發展。</p>
<h2><strong>拋售是真實的，但過度反應也同樣存在</strong></h2>
<p>在 2026 年，網絡安全股票是最大的輸家之一，整體軟件行業也受到影響。這在很大程度上是由於市場的整體情緒。投資者擔心人工智能，特別是會讓許多現有的科技公司倒閉。</p>
<p>這種恐懼幾乎在一夜之間佔據了整個行業。網絡安全領域成為了這些頭條新聞的 “受害者”。儘管實際需求並沒有急劇下降，但估值卻大幅下滑。</p>
<p>但這並不僅僅是小型企業的問題。作為該領域的領導者之一，微軟在年初前損失了近 20% 的市值，隨後在一週內反彈了 13%。</p>
<p>這一切都值得深思。顯然，這與恐懼和資金的快速重新配置有關。</p>
<p>但投資者並沒有完全離開科技領域。資金流入了半導體和人工智能基礎設施企業。被視為人工智能繁榮直接受益者的大型股票也看到了資金流入。這使得軟件行業處於冷落狀態。</p>
<h2><strong>盈利故事講述了完全不同的情況</strong></h2>
<p>現在，很多人忽視了這一點。隨着科技股的下跌，盈利預期卻在上升。</p>
<p>根據高盛的數據顯示，科技行業最近經歷了 50 年來相對收益最差的時期。</p>
<p>但與此同時，科技公司在 2026 年獲得了所有行業中最大的正向盈利修正。此外，該行業預計將在標準普爾 500 指數中成為盈利增長的領導者，淨利潤率預計將上升至 28.9%，這將是所有行業中最高的。</p>
<p>而且這還不是全部。預計人工智能的支出將推動標準普爾 500 指數中 40% 的盈利增長。</p>
<p>因此，當投資者因恐懼而拋售科技股時，這些公司的實際盈利引擎卻在變得更強。這種脱節正是高盛稱之為 “科技價值機會” 的原因。</p>
<h2><strong>估值已經重置，這改變了一切</strong></h2>
<p>讓我們談談估值，因為這正是事情真正發生轉變的地方。</p>
<p>多年來，科技股一直附帶某種溢價，有時甚至是相當高的溢價。這在業績持續交付的情況下是有效的。</p>
<p>然而，在最近的下跌之後，顯然這種溢價已經大幅降低。</p>
<p>事實上，全球科技行業的估值現在低於整體市場的市盈率。這相當不尋常，因為該行業的交易價格通常高於大多數其他行業，包括消費品和工業。</p>
<p>在美國市場也是如此，頂級科技公司與整體市場之間的估值差異大幅減少。</p>
<p>所以現在你面臨的情況是，盈利在增長，利潤率強勁，但價格卻下跌。這在如此主導的行業中並不常見。</p>
<h2><strong>那麼，為什麼會發生這種情況？</strong></h2>
<p>除了對人工智能的擔憂，還有其他恐懼。</p>
<p>首先，資本投資上升。美國頂級超大規模企業在 2025 年在其人工智能基礎設施上的投資約為 4000 億美元，比前一年增加了 70%。這引發了與投資回報率相關的擔憂。在過去，基礎設施繁榮並不總是惠及早期投資者。</p>
<p>其次，投資者開始質疑長期增長假設。如果人工智能改變了軟件的構建和使用方式，那麼這對現有公司的價值意味着什麼？</p>
<p>資本被重新配置。流入科技行業的資本減少，更多資金流向了受到人工智能需求增加直接影響的行業，如能源、工業和材料。</p>
<p>最後，資產負債表出現了變化。大型科技公司的債務增加，引發了投資者的不安，他們在過去幾年中享受了完美的資產負債表。</p>
<p>將上述所有因素結合起來，就形成了拋售的合理理由。但再説一次，盈利並沒有崩潰。</p>
<h2><strong>市場可能已經開始逆轉</strong></h2>
<p>如果你在想最糟糕的情況是否已經過去，股市已經開始給出答案。</p>
<p>納斯達克綜合指數成功觸及超過 24000 的歷史高點，表明風險偏好恢復。</p>
<p>科技行業也出現了強勁反彈，股票相比 2 月初上漲了超過 6%。這超過了標準普爾 500 指數的整體增長。</p>
<p>即使是一些較為保守的分析師也開始轉向樂觀。他們現在認為，人工智能會殺死軟件行業的想法被誇大了。其他人，如投資者邁克爾·伯裏，在看到過度下跌後也開始看漲。</p>
<p>一旦情緒在大幅下跌後發生變化，事情就會迅速發展。因此，實際問題變成了：如果價格下跌而利潤保持不變，這將導致什麼？一個機會。</p>
<p>這使我們能夠識別出一個與其基本面相比被低估的行業。這正是高盛所指向的局面。這並不意味着 “買入一切”。</p>
<p>這意味着要有選擇性。關注那些受到重創的領域，比如軟件，但仍然有強勁需求和長期增長驅動因素，如雲計算和人工智能的採用。因為如果這些因素持續存在，那麼這只是科技行業的暫時挫折。</p>
<p><strong><em>Benzinga 免責聲明：本文來自一位未付費的外部貢獻者。它不代表 Benzinga 的報道，並且未經過內容或準確性編輯。</em></strong></p>

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<p>科技股在 2026 年初遭遇了顯著的下跌，原因是人們擔心人工智能可能會擾亂現有公司。儘管出現了拋售，但科技公司的盈利預期卻有所上升，該行業預計將在標準普爾 500 指數中引領盈利增長。估值已經重置，科技股目前的交易水平低於整體市場平均水平。對資本投資和長期增長假設的擔憂加劇了拋售，但基礎盈利的強勁表現暗示科技行業可能會復甦</p>

<p>If you’ve been hanging on to your tech stocks over the past year, then you've probably felt it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在過去一年裏一直持有科技股，那麼你可能感受到了市場的變化。</p>
</div><p>The first quarter of 2026 wasn't kind. Software names got hit hard. Some semiconductor stocks pulled back. Even the best-performing tech firms were selling off, such that everyone started to ask:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年第一季度並不友好。軟件類股票遭受重創。一些半導體股票回落。即使是表現最好的科技公司也在拋售，大家開始問：</p>
</div><p>What if the AI isn't just boosting these companies, but is disrupting them?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果人工智能不僅僅是在推動這些公司，而是在顛覆它們呢？</p>
</div><p>And that was all it took. A fear-based rotation began in out-of-key tech sectors. And for a little while, there was a very real consideration of one of its most dominant themes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是一切的開始。基於恐懼的資金輪換開始在不相關的科技領域發生。短時間內，大家開始認真考慮這一主題的主導地位。</p>
</div><p>But there was something else happening. While the prices were falling, the fundamentals were moving in the opposite direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但與此同時，還有其他事情在發生。當價格下跌時，基本面卻在朝相反的方向發展。</p>
</div><h2><strong>The Sell-Off Was Real, But So Was the Overreaction</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>拋售是真實的，但過度反應也同樣存在</strong></h2>
</div><p>Among the biggest losers in 2026 were cybersecurity stocks and, generally speaking, the software industry as well. Much of this was due to the overall market sentiment. Investors feared that artificial intelligence, specifically, was going to put a lot of existing technology companies out of business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 年，網絡安全股票是最大的輸家之一，整體軟件行業也受到影響。這在很大程度上是由於市場的整體情緒。投資者擔心人工智能，特別是會讓許多現有的科技公司倒閉。</p>
</div><p>The fears took over the industry almost overnight. The cybersecurity sector became &#34;victims&#34; of those headlines. Although it was never about the actual demand going into the gutter, it was the valuation fell dramatically.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種恐懼幾乎在一夜之間佔據了整個行業。網絡安全領域成為了這些頭條新聞的 “受害者”。儘管實際需求並沒有急劇下降，但估值卻大幅下滑。</p>
</div><p>But it wasn’t even just the smaller players. Microsoft, one of the leaders in the field, lost almost 20% YTD before turning around and delivering a spectacular rally of 13% in one week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這並不僅僅是小型企業的問題。作為該領域的領導者之一，微軟在年初前損失了近 20% 的市值，隨後在一週內反彈了 13%。</p>
</div><p>There was something to be said about all of this. Clearly, this was about fears and the fast reallocation of funds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一切都值得深思。顯然，這與恐懼和資金的快速重新配置有關。</p>
</div><p>But investors did not leave tech entirely. Money flowed into semiconductor and AI-infrastructure businesses. Large-cap stocks that were seen as direct beneficiaries of the AI boom also saw inflows. And that left software out in the cold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但投資者並沒有完全離開科技領域。資金流入了半導體和人工智能基礎設施企業。被視為人工智能繁榮直接受益者的大型股票也看到了資金流入。這使得軟件行業處於冷落狀態。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Earnings Story Tells a Completely Different Story</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>盈利故事講述了完全不同的情況</strong></h2>
</div><p>Now here's the part most people miss. As tech stocks declined, earnings estimates were going up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，很多人忽視了這一點。隨着科技股的下跌，盈利預期卻在上升。</p>
</div><p>According to Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), the technology industry recently had its worst-ever period for relative gains in 50 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據高盛的數據顯示，科技行業最近經歷了 50 年來相對收益最差的時期。</p>
</div><p>But at the same time, Tech companies had the largest positive earnings revisions out of all industries in 2026. In addition, the sector is forecasted to be the leader in earnings growth in the S&amp;P 500 Index, and net profit margins are estimated to increase to 28.9%, which would be the highest across all industries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但與此同時，科技公司在 2026 年獲得了所有行業中最大的正向盈利修正。此外，該行業預計將在標準普爾 500 指數中成為盈利增長的領導者，淨利潤率預計將上升至 28.9%，這將是所有行業中最高的。</p>
</div><p>And this is not all. Spending on artificial intelligence is expected to fuel 40% of earnings growth in the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且這還不是全部。預計人工智能的支出將推動標準普爾 500 指數中 40% 的盈利增長。</p>
</div><p>So while investors were selling tech stocks out of fear, the actual earnings engine behind those companies was getting stronger. That disconnect is exactly why Goldman is calling this a &#34;technology value opportunity.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，當投資者因恐懼而拋售科技股時，這些公司的實際盈利引擎卻在變得更強。這種脱節正是高盛稱之為 “科技價值機會” 的原因。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Valuations Have Reset And That Changes Everything</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>估值已經重置，這改變了一切</strong></h2>
</div><p>Let's talk valuations, because this is where things really shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們談談估值，因為這正是事情真正發生轉變的地方。</p>
</div><p>For many years, there had been some kind of premium attached to tech stocks, sometimes it was a hefty one. And that worked as long as performance kept delivering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年來，科技股一直附帶某種溢價，有時甚至是相當高的溢價。這在業績持續交付的情況下是有效的。</p>
</div><p>However, after the last decline, it is clear that this premium has been heavily reduced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在最近的下跌之後，顯然這種溢價已經大幅降低。</p>
</div><p>In fact, the global tech sector is now valued below the overall market using a P/E ratio. This is quite unusual, considering that the sector trades above most other industries, including consumer discretionary and industrials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，全球科技行業的估值現在低於整體市場的市盈率。這相當不尋常，因為該行業的交易價格通常高於大多數其他行業，包括消費品和工業。</p>
</div><p>It is the same even in the US market, where the valuation difference between the top tech firms and the general market has drastically decreased.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美國市場也是如此，頂級科技公司與整體市場之間的估值差異大幅減少。</p>
</div><p>So now you have a situation where earnings are growing, and margins are strong, but prices have come down. That's not something you see often in a sector this dominant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以現在你面臨的情況是，盈利在增長，利潤率強勁，但價格卻下跌。這在如此主導的行業中並不常見。</p>
</div><h2><strong>So Why Did This Happen in the First Place?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>那麼，為什麼會發生這種情況？</strong></h2>
</div><p>There were other fears besides that of AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了對人工智能的擔憂，還有其他恐懼。</p>
</div><p>Firstly, capital investment went up. The top U.S. hyperscalers invested around $400 billion in their AI infrastructure in 2025, representing a 70% increase from the previous year. It caused worries related to ROI. In the past, infrastructure booms have not always benefited early investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，資本投資上升。美國頂級超大規模企業在 2025 年在其人工智能基礎設施上的投資約為 4000 億美元，比前一年增加了 70%。這引發了與投資回報率相關的擔憂。在過去，基礎設施繁榮並不總是惠及早期投資者。</p>
</div><p>Second, investors started questioning long-term growth assumptions. If AI changes how software is built and used, what does that mean for the value of existing companies?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，投資者開始質疑長期增長假設。如果人工智能改變了軟件的構建和使用方式，那麼這對現有公司的價值意味着什麼？</p>
</div><p>The capital was reallocated. There was less capital flowing into the technology sector and more money heading into industries that were immediately impacted by the increase in AI demand, like energy, industrials, and materials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>資本被重新配置。流入科技行業的資本減少，更多資金流向了受到人工智能需求增加直接影響的行業，如能源、工業和材料。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, there was a shift seen in balance sheets. An increase was seen in debt within large tech firms, causing uneasiness among investors who have enjoyed perfect balance sheets for a few years now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，資產負債表出現了變化。大型科技公司的債務增加，引發了投資者的不安，他們在過去幾年中享受了完美的資產負債表。</p>
</div><p>Combine all the above factors, and it creates a logical reason for a sell-off. But again, the earnings didn't break.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>將上述所有因素結合起來，就形成了拋售的合理理由。但再説一次，盈利並沒有崩潰。</p>
</div><h2><strong>The Market May Already Be Reversing Course</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>市場可能已經開始逆轉</strong></h2>
</div><p>In case you were thinking whether the worst was over, the stock market is already beginning to give an answer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在想最糟糕的情況是否已經過去，股市已經開始給出答案。</p>
</div><p>The Nasdaq Composite Index managed to touch record levels at over 24,000, indicating renewed appetite for risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>納斯達克綜合指數成功觸及超過 24000 的歷史高點，表明風險偏好恢復。</p>
</div><p>There was also a strong rebound in the tech sector, where stocks rose over 6% compared to early February levels. This outpaces the overall growth in the broader S&amp;P 500 index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科技行業也出現了強勁反彈，股票相比 2 月初上漲了超過 6%。這超過了標準普爾 500 指數的整體增長。</p>
</div><p>Even some of the more reserved analysts have already begun to turn positive. They now believe that the idea that artificial intelligence would kill the software industry is exaggerated. Others, like investor Michael Burry, are turning bullish after what they see as excessive declines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使是一些較為保守的分析師也開始轉向樂觀。他們現在認為，人工智能會殺死軟件行業的想法被誇大了。其他人，如投資者邁克爾·伯裏，在看到過度下跌後也開始看漲。</p>
</div><p>And once sentiment changes after a big fall, things move swiftly. So the actual question becomes this; if prices fall while profits remain intact, what would that result in? An Opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一旦情緒在大幅下跌後發生變化，事情就會迅速發展。因此，實際問題變成了：如果價格下跌而利潤保持不變，這將導致什麼？一個機會。</p>
</div><p>This allows us to identify an industry that is undervalued compared to its fundamentals. That's the setup Goldman is pointing to. And this doesn't essentially mean &#34;buy everything.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使我們能夠識別出一個與其基本面相比被低估的行業。這正是高盛所指向的局面。這並不意味着 “買入一切”。</p>
</div><p>It means being selective. Looking at areas that were hit hardest, like software, but still have strong demand and long-term growth drivers like cloud computing and AI adoption. Because if those factors continue, this was only a temporary setback for the tech industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這意味着要有選擇性。關注那些受到重創的領域，比如軟件，但仍然有強勁需求和長期增長驅動因素，如雲計算和人工智能的採用。因為如果這些因素持續存在，那麼這只是科技行業的暫時挫折。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>Benzinga 免責聲明：本文來自一位未付費的外部貢獻者。它不代表 Benzinga 的報道，並且未經過內容或準確性編輯。</em></strong></p>
</div>

Tech Stocks Crashed — But Wall Street Says The Worst May Be Over

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信息科技 ETF - Vanguard

FRNKL EXP DT ETF

信息技術指數 MSCI ETF - Fidelity

國泰中證計算機主題ETF

費城交易所 半導體 ETF - iShares

動態半導體 ETF - Invesco

嘉實中證全指集成電路ETF

國泰CES半導體芯片行業ETF

雲計算 ETF - GlobalX

標普半導體 ETF - SPDR

標普 500 ETF - Vanguard

半導體 ETF - VanEck Vectors

招商中證半導體產業ETF

高科技指數 ETF - SPDR

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Tech ETF

國聯安半導體ETF

國泰標普500ETF

華夏國證半導體芯片ETF

納斯達克半導體 ETF - First Trust

北美科技軟件股指數 ETF - iShares

標普軟件與服務 ETF - SPDR

Proshares Big Data Refiners ETF

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

微軟

高盛

標普 500 指數

GS Hldg R

科技股經歷了崩盤——但華爾街認為最糟糕的時期可能已經過去