<p>據路透社報道，考慮到中東的不確定性，日本央行可能在四月維持利率不變，但會發出準備在六月儘快加息的信號，因為通脹上升和增長風險增加。</p>
<p>摘要：</p>
<ul>
<li>日本央行預計在中東不確定性中維持四月利率不變</li>
<li>此決定被視為臨近的抉擇，取決於地緣政治</li>
<li>四月加息的市場定價降至 20% 以下</li>
<li>銀行可能保持鷹派傾向，關注六月加息</li>
<li>經濟增長預測下調，通脹預期上調</li>
<li>能源衝擊使政策路徑複雜化</li>
</ul>
<p>根據知情人士的説法，日本銀行在即將到來的四月會議上越來越可能維持利率穩定，因為政策制定者正在評估持續的中東衝突帶來的影響，路透社報道。</p>
<p>官員們表示，此決定被視為臨近的抉擇，結果仍然取決於美伊談判和更廣泛的地緣政治條件的發展。然而，銀行內部的意見平衡似乎傾向於暫停，以便有更多時間評估高能源價格和加劇的不確定性對經濟和通脹的影響。</p>
<p>這一轉變反映出對近期加息的早期預期的轉變。由於行長上田和夫的謹慎言論，四月加息的市場定價急劇下降，降至 20% 以下，他強調了監測能源衝擊的規模和持續時間的重要性。</p>
<p>儘管可能暫停加息，預計日本銀行仍將保持鷹派傾向。消息人士表示，日本央行將發出準備在六月儘早恢復加息的信號，特別是在通脹壓力加大的情況下。與衝突相關的油價上漲正在推高日本的進口成本，使得對高度依賴外部能源供應的經濟的政策前景變得複雜。</p>
<p>與此同時，預計日本央行將在即將發佈的季度展望報告中下調其經濟增長預測，同時上調通脹預期。儘管中央銀行仍然認為經濟有望實現温和復甦，但活動風險已經增加，特別是通過對製造業和家庭成本的影響。</p>
<p>由於政策利率仍低於估計的中性水平，實際利率深度負值，進一步收緊的理由依然存在。然而，隨着政策制定者在上升的通脹風險與脆弱的增長背景之間進行權衡，時機變得更加不確定。</p>
<p>---</p>
<p>鷹派的維持對利率總體上是中性的，但如果指引傾向於六月加息，則在短期內對日元有支持。然而，推遲加息可能會導致日元再次走弱，特別是在全球收益率保持高位的情況下。風險平衡使得日本國債收益率偏向上升，而外匯市場對能源驅動的通脹動態保持敏感。</p>

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<p>日本銀行（BOJ）預計將在四月份維持利率不變，原因是中東局勢的不確定性持續存在，隨着通脹風險上升，可能在六月份進行加息。市場對四月份加息的預期已降至 20% 以下。日本銀行可能會保持鷹派立場，同時下調經濟增長預測並上調通脹預期。政策制定者謹慎行事，平衡不斷上升的通脹與脆弱的經濟增長，尤其是受到高企能源價格的影響</p>

<p>BOJ is likely to hold rates in April amid Middle East uncertainty, Reuters reports, but signal readiness to hike as soon as June as inflation rises and growth risks increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>據路透社報道，考慮到中東的不確定性，日本央行可能在四月維持利率不變，但會發出準備在六月儘快加息的信號，因為通脹上升和增長風險增加。</p>
</div><p>Summary:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摘要：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>BOJ seen holding rates in April amid Middle East uncertainty</li>
<li>Decision viewed as close call, dependent on geopolitics</li>
<li>Market pricing for April hike drops below 20%</li>
<li>Bank likely to retain hawkish bias, eye June hike</li>
<li>Growth forecasts seen lowered, inflation projections raised</li>
<li>Energy shock complicates policy path</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本央行預計在中東不確定性中維持四月利率不變</li>
<li>此決定被視為臨近的抉擇，取決於地緣政治</li>
<li>四月加息的市場定價降至 20% 以下</li>
<li>銀行可能保持鷹派傾向，關注六月加息</li>
<li>經濟增長預測下調，通脹預期上調</li>
<li>能源衝擊使政策路徑複雜化</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The Bank of Japan is increasingly likely to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming April meeting, according to sources familiar with its thinking, as policymakers assess the fallout from the ongoing Middle East conflict, Reuters reports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據知情人士的説法，日本銀行在即將到來的四月會議上越來越可能維持利率穩定，因為政策制定者正在評估持續的中東衝突帶來的影響，路透社報道。</p>
</div><p>Officials are said to view the decision as a close call, with the outcome still dependent on developments in US-Iran negotiations and broader geopolitical conditions. However, the balance of opinion within the Bank appears to favour a pause, allowing more time to evaluate the economic and inflation impact of elevated energy prices and heightened uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>官員們表示，此決定被視為臨近的抉擇，結果仍然取決於美伊談判和更廣泛的地緣政治條件的發展。然而，銀行內部的意見平衡似乎傾向於暫停，以便有更多時間評估高能源價格和加劇的不確定性對經濟和通脹的影響。</p>
</div><p>The shift reflects a move away from earlier expectations of a near-term rate hike. Market pricing for an April increase has declined sharply, falling below 20% following cautious remarks from Governor Kazuo Ueda, who emphasised the importance of monitoring the scale and duration of the energy shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一轉變反映出對近期加息的早期預期的轉變。由於行長上田和夫的謹慎言論，四月加息的市場定價急劇下降，降至 20% 以下，他強調了監測能源衝擊的規模和持續時間的重要性。</p>
</div><p>Despite the likely pause, the Bank is expected to maintain a hawkish bias. Sources indicate the BOJ will signal its readiness to resume rate hikes as early as June, particularly as inflationary pressures build. Oil price gains linked to the conflict are pushing up import costs in Japan, complicating the policy outlook for an economy heavily reliant on external energy supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管可能暫停加息，預計日本銀行仍將保持鷹派傾向。消息人士表示，日本央行將發出準備在六月儘早恢復加息的信號，特別是在通脹壓力加大的情況下。與衝突相關的油價上漲正在推高日本的進口成本，使得對高度依賴外部能源供應的經濟的政策前景變得複雜。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the BOJ is expected to revise down its growth forecasts while lifting its inflation projections in its upcoming quarterly outlook report. While the central bank still sees the economy on track for a moderate recovery, risks to activity have increased, particularly through the impact on manufacturing and household costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，預計日本央行將在即將發佈的季度展望報告中下調其經濟增長預測，同時上調通脹預期。儘管中央銀行仍然認為經濟有望實現温和復甦，但活動風險已經增加，特別是通過對製造業和家庭成本的影響。</p>
</div><p>With policy rates still below estimated neutral levels and real rates deeply negative, the case for further tightening remains intact. However, the timing has become more uncertain as policymakers balance rising inflation risks against a fragile growth backdrop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於政策利率仍低於估計的中性水平，實際利率深度負值，進一步收緊的理由依然存在。然而，隨着政策制定者在上升的通脹風險與脆弱的增長背景之間進行權衡，時機變得更加不確定。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div><p>A hawkish hold is broadly neutral for rates but supportive for JPY in the near term if guidance leans toward June tightening. However, delaying hikes risks renewed yen weakness, particularly if global yields remain elevated. The balance of risks keeps JGB yields biased higher while FX remains sensitive to energy-driven inflation dynamics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鷹派的維持對利率總體上是中性的，但如果指引傾向於六月加息，則在短期內對日元有支持。然而，推遲加息可能會導致日元再次走弱，特別是在全球收益率保持高位的情況下。風險平衡使得日本國債收益率偏向上升，而外匯市場對能源驅動的通脹動態保持敏感。</p>
</div>

BOJ likely to hold rates in April but signal readiness to hike as inflation risks rise

日本央行可能在四月份維持利率不變，但隨着通脹風險的增加，可能會發出準備加息的信號