<p>這一年還不到四個月，我們已經遭遇了三個通常會導致市場暴跌的事件：</p>
<ul>
<li>伊朗衝突。</li>
<li>由於人工智能引發對其商業模式的擔憂，軟件股受到重創。</li>
<li>私人信貸崩潰。</li>
</ul>
<p>今天我們將重點討論第三點，因為雖然伊朗局勢是一場持續的悲劇，但它終將得到解決。一旦解決，反彈的幅度可能會相當顯著。</p>
<p>軟件股的情況類似。隨着時間的推移，我認為這些股票在人工智能競賽中是贏家，而不是受害者。</p>
<p>但私人信貸的故事則不同，因為它實際上告訴我們的經濟狀況——穩定且在增長——與大多數人認為的正好相反。</p>
<p>這種脱節為股票市場的增長鋪平了道路——包括我們 <em>CEF Insider</em> 投資組合中的股票型基金（它們的收益率在 9.9% 之間）。稍後我們將提到一隻以每美元僅 89 美分交易的基金。</p>
<p><strong>私人股本恐慌的內幕</strong></p>
<p>讓我們深入瞭解私人股本的情況，以便更好地理解這對我們作為投資者意味着什麼。</p>
<p>這實際上與軟件情況有關，基本想法是許多軟件公司從私人信貸基金借款，而這些基金，顧名思義，是直接向公司提供貸款的。現在，隨着人工智能似乎威脅到軟件公司的利潤，人們擔心它們可能難以償還這些貸款。</p>
<p>這種擔憂已經引起了媒體的關注。甚至有一位 <em>紐約時報</em> 的專欄作家在 4 月 6 日的文章中將其稱為 “慢動作的銀行擠兑”。</p>
<p>我的看法？這有些過頭了。但我們對此並不介意。因為每當媒體在這種情況下過度渲染時，隨之而來的恐慌為我們創造了機會。</p>
<p><strong>數據並不支持私人信貸恐慌</strong></p>
<p>為了進一步分析，讓我們看看私人信貸的違約率，根據 Fitch Ratings 最近的測量，違約率為 5.8%。我們需要注意的是，Fitch 僅在 2024 年開始進行這一測量。由於這相對較新，我們沒有太多歷史數據可以進行比較。</p>
<p>然而，Fitch 還測量槓桿貸款的違約率，這與私人信貸在風險特徵上非常相似。最近的數據顯示，槓桿貸款的違約率為 4.9%，與私人信貸相差不遠。但更重要的是，這一比例較 2025 年末的 5.7% 大幅下降。</p>
<p>換句話説，企業信貸的風險正在下降，而不是上升。</p>
<p>私人信貸領域最大的參與者之一 Apollo Global Management 也指出，這些貸款的違約率在過去兩年中保持相對平穩，而 “負債管理措施”（LMEs）的違約率也開始下降。這兩種趨勢在下面的圖表中可見：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Business-Cycles.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Business-Cycles.png"/></p>
<p>LMEs 是債權人與借款人合作以避免違約或破產的一種方式。這類事件越少，市場整體的信用狀況就越好。</p>
<p>而且，正如上圖中的橙色線所示，LMEs 在 2025 年初達到峯值後正在逐漸減少。這是私人信貸恐慌被誇大的又一個跡象。不僅如此，整體來看，這些指標告訴我們與媒體傳達的恐慌敍事正好相反：經濟不僅穩定——而且正在改善。</p>
<p>當然，我們並不是為了利用這種脱節而購買私人信貸基金。許多基金結構不佳，還有一些存在複雜性和細微差別，使其被高估。</p>
<p>相反，正如我之前提到的，我們希望增加我們 <em>CEF Insider</em> 投資組合中股票部分的持有。我們特別關注那些折扣過大的基金，比如 <strong>Liberty All-Star Growth Fund (ASG)</strong>。</p>
<p>目前，ASG 的交易折扣為 11.2%——即每持有一美元的資產僅需 89 美分——遠低於過去五年 3.7% 的平均折扣。</p>
<p>ASG 的定位也很好，因為它不僅持有大型股——尤其是大型科技股，如 <strong>Microsoft (MSFT)</strong>、<strong>Amazon.com (AMZN)</strong> 和 <strong>NVIDIA (NVDA)</strong>，還包括來自各個行業的中型股，如航空航天公司 <strong>Curtiss-Wright (CW)</strong> 和物業管理公司 <strong>FirstService Corp. (FSV)</strong>。</p>
<p>這是一種多樣化的組合，能夠很好地讓我們在投資者的風險偏好恢復時受益。健康的股息——在我寫這篇文章時為 8.5%——也不容小覷。</p>
<p><strong>忘掉私人信貸：這將改變一切（在 18 個月內或更短時間）</strong></p>
<p>大多數人 <em>知道</em> 人工智能將影響現代生活的方方面面。</p>
<p>但很少有人 <em>真正理解</em> 這些變化將有多深遠。</p>
<p>根據領先的人工智能實驗室，未來的變化將遠比大多數人想象的要大。而且這些變化來得很快——我們説的是在 18 個月內。</p>
<p>我們每天都在我的 <em>CEF Insider</em> 服務中跟蹤這一變化。我們將其歸納為 4 個關鍵驅動因素，影響近期（及長期）的股息和上漲潛力。</p>
<p>我們現在正在投資這四個領域。</p>
<p>我將這四個領域稱為 “轉折點”。我精心挑選了 4 只基金（平均支付 10% 的股息），它們與每個轉折點緊密相關。</p>
<p>一個轉折點，一隻基金。四隻基金的 <strong>10% 股息</strong>。</p>
<p>這四隻基金現在都很便宜，因為大多數投資者對即將到來的變化毫無頭緒。我們知道。</p>
<p><strong>點擊這裏，我將帶您瞭解這四個關鍵轉折點，並向您發送一份特別報告，揭示這些便宜（目前）支付 10% 股息的基金的名稱和代碼。</strong></p>
<h5>另見：</h5>
<p> 沃倫·巴菲特的股息股票</p>
<p> 股息增長股票：25 位貴族</p>
<p> 未來的股息貴族：緊隨其後者</p>
<p>此處表達的觀點和意見是作者的觀點和意見，並不一定反映納斯達克公司的觀點。</p>

<p>這篇文章討論了私人信貸的當前狀態及其對投資者的影響。儘管由於人工智能對軟件公司的影響而引發了對違約的擔憂，作者認為經濟是穩定並在改善中的。私人信貸的違約率為 5.8%，趨勢顯示風險正在減少。文章重點關注股權基金，特別是 Liberty All-Star Growth Fund（ASG），該基金目前以 11.2% 的折扣交易，並提供 8.5% 的股息。作者認為這為投資者信心迴歸提供了一個買入機會</p>

<p>The year isn't even four months old, and we've already been hit with <em>three</em> events that would normally send markets tumbling:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一年還不到四個月，我們已經遭遇了三個通常會導致市場暴跌的事件：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>The Iran conflict.</li>
<li>The hit to software stocks, after AI raised concerns about their business model.</li>
<li>The private-credit collapse.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>伊朗衝突。</li>
<li>由於人工智能引發對其商業模式的擔憂，軟件股受到重創。</li>
<li>私人信貸崩潰。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>We're going to zero in on that third point today, because while the Iran situation is an ongoing tragedy, it will be resolved at some point. When it does, the relief rally will likely be significant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天我們將重點討論第三點，因為雖然伊朗局勢是一場持續的悲劇，但它終將得到解決。一旦解決，反彈的幅度可能會相當顯著。</p>
</div><p>The software story is similar. Over time, I see these stocks as winners in the AI race, not victims.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>軟件股的情況類似。隨着時間的推移，我認為這些股票在人工智能競賽中是贏家，而不是受害者。</p>
</div><p>But the private-credit tale is different, because what it's actually telling us about the economy--that it's stable and growing--is the <em>exact opposite</em> of what most people think it's saying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但私人信貸的故事則不同，因為它實際上告訴我們的經濟狀況——穩定且在增長——與大多數人認為的正好相反。</p>
</div><p>That disconnect sets up equities for growth--including the equity-focused funds in our <em>CEF Insider</em> portfolio (which yield 9.9% between them). We'll touch on one trading at a ridiculous 89 cents on the dollar in a moment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種脱節為股票市場的增長鋪平了道路——包括我們 <em>CEF Insider</em> 投資組合中的股票型基金（它們的收益率在 9.9% 之間）。稍後我們將提到一隻以每美元僅 89 美分交易的基金。</p>
</div><p><strong>Under the Hood of the Private-Equity Panic</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>私人股本恐慌的內幕</strong></p>
</div><p>Let's take a walk through the private-equity situation so we can get a better sense of what it means for us as investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們深入瞭解私人股本的情況，以便更好地理解這對我們作為投資者意味着什麼。</p>
</div><p>It actually ties back to the software situation, with the basic idea being that a lot of software firms borrowed from private-credit funds, which, as the name suggests, lend money directly to companies. And now that AI appears to be threatening software firms' profits, the concern is that they could struggle to repay those loans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這實際上與軟件情況有關，基本想法是許多軟件公司從私人信貸基金借款，而這些基金，顧名思義，是直接向公司提供貸款的。現在，隨着人工智能似乎威脅到軟件公司的利潤，人們擔心它們可能難以償還這些貸款。</p>
</div><p>This worry has caught on with the media. It even led a <em>New York Times</em> columnist to refer to it as &#34;a slow-motion bank run&#34; in an April 6 piece.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種擔憂已經引起了媒體的關注。甚至有一位 <em>紐約時報</em> 的專欄作家在 4 月 6 日的文章中將其稱為 “慢動作的銀行擠兑”。</p>
</div><p>My take? That's more than a little overdone. But we're fine with that. Because whenever the media overplays its hand in a situation like this, the resulting panic sets up bargains for us.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我的看法？這有些過頭了。但我們對此並不介意。因為每當媒體在這種情況下過度渲染時，隨之而來的恐慌為我們創造了機會。</p>
</div><p><strong>The Data Doesn't Support the Private-Credit Panic</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>數據並不支持私人信貸恐慌</strong></p>
</div><p>To unpack this further, let's look at the default rate in private credit, which stands at 5.8%, according to a recent measure taken by Fitch Ratings. Now we do need to note that Fitch only began taking this reading 2024. Since that's quite new, we don't have much history to compare it to.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了進一步分析，讓我們看看私人信貸的違約率，根據 Fitch Ratings 最近的測量，違約率為 5.8%。我們需要注意的是，Fitch 僅在 2024 年開始進行這一測量。由於這相對較新，我們沒有太多歷史數據可以進行比較。</p>
</div><p>However, Fitch also measures leveraged-loan defaults, which are very similar to private credit in their risk profile. The last reading saw <em>that</em> default rate at 4.9%, so not too far from private credit. But more important, it's down sharply from the 5.7% rate seen in late 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Fitch 還測量槓桿貸款的違約率，這與私人信貸在風險特徵上非常相似。最近的數據顯示，槓桿貸款的違約率為 4.9%，與私人信貸相差不遠。但更重要的是，這一比例較 2025 年末的 5.7% 大幅下降。</p>
</div><p>In other words, the risks in corporate credit are going <em>down</em>, not up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，企業信貸的風險正在下降，而不是上升。</p>
</div><p>Apollo Global Management, one of the biggest players in private credit, has also pointed out that defaults on these loans have stayed pretty flat for two years now, and the default rates on &#34;liability management exercises, or LMEs, are starting to come down, as well. Both trends are visible in the chart below:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>私人信貸領域最大的參與者之一 Apollo Global Management 也指出，這些貸款的違約率在過去兩年中保持相對平穩，而 “負債管理措施”（LMEs）的違約率也開始下降。這兩種趨勢在下面的圖表中可見：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Business-Cycles.png" alt="" original-src="https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Business-Cycles.png"/></p>
<p>LMEs are a way for a creditor and a borrower to work together to avoid a default or bankruptcy. The fewer of these there are, the better the credit situation for the marketplace as a whole.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LMEs 是債權人與借款人合作以避免違約或破產的一種方式。這類事件越少，市場整體的信用狀況就越好。</p>
</div><p>And, as the orange line in the chart above shows, LMEs are fading after peaking in early 2025. That's yet another sign the private-credit panic is overblown. Not only that, but taken as a whole, these indicators tell us the <em>opposite</em> of the panicky narrative we're getting from the media: that the economy is not only stable--it's getting better.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且，正如上圖中的橙色線所示，LMEs 在 2025 年初達到峯值後正在逐漸減少。這是私人信貸恐慌被誇大的又一個跡象。不僅如此，整體來看，這些指標告訴我們與媒體傳達的恐慌敍事正好相反：經濟不僅穩定——而且正在改善。</p>
</div><p>Of course, we're not buying private-credit funds to take advantage of this disconnect. Many are structured badly, and some still have complications and subtleties that make them overvalued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，我們並不是為了利用這種脱節而購買私人信貸基金。許多基金結構不佳，還有一些存在複雜性和細微差別，使其被高估。</p>
</div><p>Instead, as I hinted at earlier, we're looking to add to our holdings of funds in our <em>CEF Insider</em> portfolio's equity bucket. We're especially focused on those with overly wide discounts, like the <strong>Liberty All-Star Growth Fund (ASG)</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，正如我之前提到的，我們希望增加我們 <em>CEF Insider</em> 投資組合中股票部分的持有。我們特別關注那些折扣過大的基金，比如 <strong>Liberty All-Star Growth Fund (ASG)</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Right now, ASG trades at an 11.2% discount--or about 89 cents for every dollar of its holdings--far below the 3.7% average discount it's posted over the last five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，ASG 的交易折扣為 11.2%——即每持有一美元的資產僅需 89 美分——遠低於過去五年 3.7% 的平均折扣。</p>
</div><p>ASG is also well-positioned because it not only holds large cap stocks--especially large cap techs such as <strong>Microsoft (MSFT)</strong>, <strong>Amazon.com (AMZN)</strong> and <strong>NVIDIA (NVDA)</strong>, but also mid-caps from across the economy, such as aerospace firm <strong>Curtiss-Wright (CW)</strong> and property manager <strong>FirstService Corp. (FSV).</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ASG 的定位也很好，因為它不僅持有大型股——尤其是大型科技股，如 <strong>Microsoft (MSFT)</strong>、<strong>Amazon.com (AMZN)</strong> 和 <strong>NVIDIA (NVDA)</strong>，還包括來自各個行業的中型股，如航空航天公司 <strong>Curtiss-Wright (CW)</strong> 和物業管理公司 <strong>FirstService Corp. (FSV)</strong>。</p>
</div><p>That's a diversified mix that nicely positions us to benefit as investors' risk appetite picks back up. The healthy dividend--8.5% as I write this--doesn't hurt, either.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是一種多樣化的組合，能夠很好地讓我們在投資者的風險偏好恢復時受益。健康的股息——在我寫這篇文章時為 8.5%——也不容小覷。</p>
</div><p><strong>Forget Private Credit: This Will Change Everything (in 18 Months or Less)</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>忘掉私人信貸：這將改變一切（在 18 個月內或更短時間）</strong></p>
</div><p>Most people <em>know</em> AI is going to affect pretty well everything about modern life.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多數人 <em>知道</em> 人工智能將影響現代生活的方方面面。</p>
</div><p>But few people <em>truly get</em> just how deep these changes will run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但很少有人 <em>真正理解</em> 這些變化將有多深遠。</p>
</div><p>According to leading AI labs, the coming shifts will be far bigger than most people think. And they're coming fast--we're talking within 18 months here, at the outside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據領先的人工智能實驗室，未來的變化將遠比大多數人想象的要大。而且這些變化來得很快——我們説的是在 18 個月內。</p>
</div><p>We're tracking this shift day by day at my <em>CEF Insider</em> service. And we've baked it down to 4 key drivers of dividends and upside in the near (and longer) term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們每天都在我的 <em>CEF Insider</em> 服務中跟蹤這一變化。我們將其歸納為 4 個關鍵驅動因素，影響近期（及長期）的股息和上漲潛力。</p>
</div><p>We're buying into all of them <em>now</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們現在正在投資這四個領域。</p>
</div><p>I call these 4 areas &#34;pivot points.&#34; And I've hand-picked 4 funds (paying 10% dividends on average) that are <em>dialed straight into each one.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我將這四個領域稱為 “轉折點”。我精心挑選了 4 只基金（平均支付 10% 的股息），它們與每個轉折點緊密相關。</p>
</div><p>One pivot point, one fund. And a collective <strong>10% dividend</strong> across all four.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個轉折點，一隻基金。四隻基金的 <strong>10% 股息</strong>。</p>
</div><p>All 4 of these funds are cheap now, as most investors have no idea what's about to arrive. We do.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這四隻基金現在都很便宜，因為大多數投資者對即將到來的變化毫無頭緒。我們知道。</p>
</div><p><strong>Click here and I'll walk you through all 4 of these crucial pivot points--and send you a Special Report revealing the names and tickers these cheap (for now) 10%-paying funds.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>點擊這裏，我將帶您瞭解這四個關鍵轉折點，並向您發送一份特別報告，揭示這些便宜（目前）支付 10% 股息的基金的名稱和代碼。</strong></p>
</div><h5>Also see:</h5>
<div class="lb-trans"><h5>另見：</h5>
</div><p> Warren Buffett Dividend Stocks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p> 沃倫·巴菲特的股息股票</p>
</div><p> Dividend Growth Stocks: 25 Aristocrats</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p> 股息增長股票：25 位貴族</p>
</div><p> Future Dividend Aristocrats: Close Contenders</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p> 未來的股息貴族：緊隨其後者</p>
</div><p>The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此處表達的觀點和意見是作者的觀點和意見，並不一定反映納斯達克公司的觀點。</p>
</div>

This 8.5% Dividend Trades for 11% Off (Thank the Private-Credit Panic)

nasdaq

Liberty All Star Growth

Apollo Global

微軟

亞馬遜

英偉達

Curtiss Wright

FirstService公司

APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT INC 6.75% CONV PFD STK SER A

Apollo Global Management Pref Share APO 7.625 09/15/53

NVIDIA Corporation

這個 8.5% 股息的交易以 11% 的折扣進行（得益於私人信貸恐慌）