<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/PphO36rcjvFr4r1bd7ZXAQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04Mjg-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/5c0ed92ac97ddee68ef3dc9e5638440f?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/PphO36rcjvFr4r1bd7ZXAQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04Mjg-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/5c0ed92ac97ddee68ef3dc9e5638440f"/></p>
<p>迪拜的酒店正在遣散員工，遊客海灘也空無一人，因為海灣地區的戰爭對其經濟多元化努力造成了影響，尤其是超越石油和天然氣的努力（FADEL SENNA）</p>
<p>在經歷了來自伊朗的前所未有的攻擊後，富裕的海灣國家現在在戰爭與和平之間陷入困境，談判停滯，而重要的霍爾木茲海峽幾乎關閉，這威脅到經濟復甦。</p>
<p>伊朗通過封鎖霍爾木茲海峽打擊海灣能源出口，同時其攻擊造成的能源基礎設施損壞可能需要數月甚至更長時間才能修復。</p>
<p>即使脆弱的停火仍在維持，重新襲擊的威脅依然籠罩着海灣地區的經濟，威脅到海灣國家長期以來被譽為遊客和商業安全港的多元化雄心。</p>
<p>目前尚不清楚圍繞霍爾木茲海峽和鈾濃縮的停滯談判是否會達成解決海灣主要關切的協議：剝奪伊朗對這一重要水道的控制，並遏制其導彈和代理人。</p>
<p>海灣的命運越是不確定，經濟復甦所需的時間就越長，分析師警告稱，傳統的美國盟友在戰爭與和平的決策中將難以影響華盛頓。</p>
<p>- 無薪假期 -</p>
<p>“如果霍爾木茲海峽被封鎖很長時間，這些國家將遭受巨大的打擊。而他們已經遭受了，” 海灣國際論壇研究所主任達尼亞·塔費爾（Dania Thafer）説。</p>
<p>卡塔爾已經停止了液化天然氣的生產，並與科威特和巴林的能源生產商一起宣佈了不可抗力。</p>
<p>在迪拜，異常輕的交通和空蕩蕩的旅遊區講述着這座城市仍在等待恢復正常的故事。</p>
<p>在脆弱的停火幾周後，最初的震驚已經平息，阿聯酋和卡塔爾的孩子們在經歷了一個多月的遠程學習後重返校園。</p>
<p>但由於許多家庭逃離，一些人仍在網上上課。阿聯酋的學校已為安全事件制定了演練。</p>
<p>一位豪華酒店員工表示，一些員工已被放無薪假，而一家美容院的員工則表示工資也被削減。</p>
<p>根據國際貨幣基金組織的預測，海灣國家中有一半預計今年將出現經濟收縮，而沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋的增長也將放緩。</p>
<p>富裕的石油國家可以再次推動經濟增長，但這些前景取決於危機持續的時間以及最終解決方案是否能為未來提供保障，國際貨幣基金組織的賈哈德·阿祖爾（Jihad Azour）告訴法新社。</p>
<p>- '最壞的情況' -</p>
<p>霍爾木茲海峽的封鎖暴露了海灣國家對這一重要水道的依賴。</p>
<p>但即使是像阿聯酋和沙特阿拉伯這樣的國家，雖然它們有管道可以讓部分出口繞過這一水道，但多元化努力仍面臨風險。</p>
<p>穩定是吸引人才和遊客的關鍵，同時也是實現他們成為人工智能專業和數據中心主要樞紐目標的關鍵。</p>
<p>“美國真的為海灣國家打開了潘多拉的盒子，” 塔費爾説。</p>
<p>如果伊朗被允許通過對霍爾木茲的控制 “無限期地對他們的經濟行使否決權”，她補充道，這將是 “海灣地區極具挑戰性和脆弱的局面”。</p>
<p>以色列並未參與談判，仍可能破壞任何協議。</p>
<p>“以色列會繼續在伊朗 ‘修剪草坪’ 嗎？” 塔費爾説，指的是反覆進行的週期性攻擊策略。</p>
<p>“而伊朗會否轉身關閉霍爾木茲海峽或攻擊海灣國家的經濟？”</p>
<p>“這是最壞的情況：海灣國家周圍的不穩定局勢，以及這一危機沒有盡頭。”</p>
<p>- '面子工程' -</p>
<p>海灣國家在戰爭和伊朗問題上仍然存在分歧。阿聯酋頻繁遭到伊朗攻擊，採取了更強硬的立場，並對任何協議提出了極端要求，而沙特阿拉伯則支持調解國巴基斯坦的努力。</p>
<p>“伊朗有一個經過精心計算的戰略：對海灣國家進行不同程度的打擊，並對伊朗產生不同程度的威脅感知，” 塔費爾説。</p>
<p>儘管與特朗普關係密切，去年五月在海灣之行中受到英雄般的歡迎，但這些君主國發現自己在談判中處於邊緣地位，儘管它們處於攻擊的前線。</p>
<p>“海灣國家在塑造特朗普政府對伊朗的行為方面面臨困難，” 國際戰略研究所的哈桑·阿爾哈桑（Hasan Alhasan）説。</p>
<p>“他們不希望美國對伊朗發起戰爭——而美國確實如此——因此毫不奇怪，他們無法讓華盛頓在談判中優先考慮他們自己的安全利益，” 因為特朗普尋求阿爾哈桑所稱的 “面子工程” 退出。</p>
<p>aya/th/dc</p>

PP沙特國債

MSCI 科威特​ ETF - iShares

南方沙特

華泰柏瑞南方東英沙特阿拉伯ETF(QDII)

<p>海灣國家正面臨經濟挑戰，因為美國與伊朗的危機持續，霍爾木茲海峽的封鎖影響了能源出口和旅遊業。儘管脆弱的停火協議存在，但該地區的經濟復甦和多元化努力仍然充滿不確定性。像卡塔爾這樣的國家已暫停液化天然氣生產，許多海灣國家預計今年經濟將出現收縮。分析師警告稱，長期的不穩定可能會阻礙海灣國家吸引人才和投資的雄心，而美國在談判中的角色仍不確定，使海灣國家對伊朗的影響更加脆弱</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/PphO36rcjvFr4r1bd7ZXAQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04Mjg-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/5c0ed92ac97ddee68ef3dc9e5638440f" alt="" original-src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/PphO36rcjvFr4r1bd7ZXAQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04Mjg-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/5c0ed92ac97ddee68ef3dc9e5638440f"/></p>
<p>Dubai hotels are sending home staff and tourist beaches have emptied as the war in the Gulf takes its toll on the region's efforts to diversify its economy beyond oil and gas (FADEL SENNA)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迪拜的酒店正在遣散員工，遊客海灘也空無一人，因為海灣地區的戰爭對其經濟多元化努力造成了影響，尤其是超越石油和天然氣的努力（FADEL SENNA）</p>
</div><p>After weathering unprecedented attacks from Iran, the wealthy Gulf states are now stuck between war and peace as talks stall and the vital Strait of Hormuz remains all but closed -- threatening economic recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在經歷了來自伊朗的前所未有的攻擊後，富裕的海灣國家現在在戰爭與和平之間陷入困境，談判停滯，而重要的霍爾木茲海峽幾乎關閉，這威脅到經濟復甦。</p>
</div><p>Iran has hit Gulf energy exports with its Strait of Hormuz blockade, while its attacks have caused damage to energy infrastructure that could take months or more to repair.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗通過封鎖霍爾木茲海峽打擊海灣能源出口，同時其攻擊造成的能源基礎設施損壞可能需要數月甚至更長時間才能修復。</p>
</div><p>Even as a shaky ceasefire holds, the threat of renewed strikes looms over the region's economy beyond oil, threatening diversification ambitions in the Gulf, long touted as a safe haven for visitors and business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使脆弱的停火仍在維持，重新襲擊的威脅依然籠罩着海灣地區的經濟，威脅到海灣國家長期以來被譽為遊客和商業安全港的多元化雄心。</p>
</div><p>It is unclear whether stalled talks, so far centred around the Strait of Hormuz and uranium enrichment, will produce a deal addressing the Gulf's main concerns: stripping Iran of its control over the key waterway and keeping its missiles and proxies in check.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前尚不清楚圍繞霍爾木茲海峽和鈾濃縮的停滯談判是否會達成解決海灣主要關切的協議：剝奪伊朗對這一重要水道的控制，並遏制其導彈和代理人。</p>
</div><p>The longer the Gulf's fate remains uncertain, the longer economic recovery will take, and analysts warn that the traditional US allies will struggle to influence Washington's decisions when it comes to war and peace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>海灣的命運越是不確定，經濟復甦所需的時間就越長，分析師警告稱，傳統的美國盟友在戰爭與和平的決策中將難以影響華盛頓。</p>
</div><p>- Unpaid leave -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 無薪假期 -</p>
</div><p>&#34;If this goes on for quite a long time with the Strait of Hormuz blocked, some of those states are going to suffer huge blows. And they already have,&#34; said Dania Thafer, director of the Gulf International Forum research institute.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果霍爾木茲海峽被封鎖很長時間，這些國家將遭受巨大的打擊。而他們已經遭受了，” 海灣國際論壇研究所主任達尼亞·塔費爾（Dania Thafer）説。</p>
</div><p>Qatar has already stopped liquefied natural gas production and, along with energy producers in Kuwait and Bahrain, declared force majeure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡塔爾已經停止了液化天然氣的生產，並與科威特和巴林的能源生產商一起宣佈了不可抗力。</p>
</div><p>In Dubai, unusually light traffic and deserted tourist areas tell the tale of a city still waiting for a return to normality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在迪拜，異常輕的交通和空蕩蕩的旅遊區講述着這座城市仍在等待恢復正常的故事。</p>
</div><p>Weeks into a fragile truce, the initial shock has subsided, with children returning to school in the UAE and Qatar after more than a month of distance learning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在脆弱的停火幾周後，最初的震驚已經平息，阿聯酋和卡塔爾的孩子們在經歷了一個多月的遠程學習後重返校園。</p>
</div><p>But some are still following classes online after many families fled. UAE schools have put drills in place for security incidents.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但由於許多家庭逃離，一些人仍在網上上課。阿聯酋的學校已為安全事件制定了演練。</p>
</div><p>One luxury hotel employee said some staff have put on unpaid leave, while an employee at a beauty salon said salaries had also been slashed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一位豪華酒店員工表示，一些員工已被放無薪假，而一家美容院的員工則表示工資也被削減。</p>
</div><p>Half of the Gulf countries are expecting a contraction this year, while slowed growth is projected for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, according to the International Monetary Fund.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據國際貨幣基金組織的預測，海灣國家中有一半預計今年將出現經濟收縮，而沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋的增長也將放緩。</p>
</div><p>Big, oil-rich countries with deep pockets can boost their economies again, but these prospects hinge on how long the crisis lasts and whether a final resolution can provide assurances for the future, Jihad Azour of the International Monetary Fund told AFP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>富裕的石油國家可以再次推動經濟增長，但這些前景取決於危機持續的時間以及最終解決方案是否能為未來提供保障，國際貨幣基金組織的賈哈德·阿祖爾（Jihad Azour）告訴法新社。</p>
</div><p>- 'Worse case scenario' -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- '最壞的情況' -</p>
</div><p>The Hormuz blockade has exposed most of the Gulf's dependance on the key waterway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍爾木茲海峽的封鎖暴露了海灣國家對這一重要水道的依賴。</p>
</div><p>But even for countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which have access to pipelines that allow some of their exports to bypass the waterway, diversification efforts are at risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但即使是像阿聯酋和沙特阿拉伯這樣的國家，雖然它們有管道可以讓部分出口繞過這一水道，但多元化努力仍面臨風險。</p>
</div><p>Stability is key to attract talent and tourists, but also achieve their goal of becoming major hubs for artificial intelligence expertise and data centres.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>穩定是吸引人才和遊客的關鍵，同時也是實現他們成為人工智能專業和數據中心主要樞紐目標的關鍵。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The US has really opened a Pandora's box for the Gulf states,&#34; Thafer said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“美國真的為海灣國家打開了潘多拉的盒子，” 塔費爾説。</p>
</div><p>If Iran is allowed to maintain &#34;a veto over their economies indefinitely&#34; through its control of Hormuz, she added, that would be &#34;an extremely challenging and vulnerable situation for the Gulf&#34;.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果伊朗被允許通過對霍爾木茲的控制 “無限期地對他們的經濟行使否決權”，她補充道，這將是 “海灣地區極具挑戰性和脆弱的局面”。</p>
</div><p>Israel is not at the negotiating table and could still upend any deal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以色列並未參與談判，仍可能破壞任何協議。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Is Israel going to continue to 'mow the lawn' in Iran?&#34; Thafer said, referring to the strategy of repeated, periodic attacks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“以色列會繼續在伊朗 ‘修剪草坪’ 嗎？” 塔費爾説，指的是反覆進行的週期性攻擊策略。</p>
</div><p>&#34;And is Iran going to turn around and close the Strait of Hormuz or attack the Gulf states' economies?.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“而伊朗會否轉身關閉霍爾木茲海峽或攻擊海灣國家的經濟？”</p>
</div><p>&#34;This is the worst case scenario: instability ensuing around the Gulf states and no end to this crisis.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這是最壞的情況：海灣國家周圍的不穩定局勢，以及這一危機沒有盡頭。”</p>
</div><p>- 'Face-saving exit' -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- '面子工程' -</p>
</div><p>Gulf states remain divided over the war and on Iran. The UAE, which Iran has struck most frequently, has had a more hawkish stance and expressed maximalist demands for any deal, while Saudi Arabia has supported mediator Pakistan's efforts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>海灣國家在戰爭和伊朗問題上仍然存在分歧。阿聯酋頻繁遭到伊朗攻擊，採取了更強硬的立場，並對任何協議提出了極端要求，而沙特阿拉伯則支持調解國巴基斯坦的努力。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Iran had a calibrated strategy: striking Gulf states to different degrees and creating varying degree of threat perceptions towards Iran,&#34; according to Thafer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“伊朗有一個經過精心計算的戰略：對海灣國家進行不同程度的打擊，並對伊朗產生不同程度的威脅感知，” 塔費爾説。</p>
</div><p>And despite close ties to Trump, who was given a hero's welcome last May during his Gulf tour, the monarchies have found themselves on the sidelines of the talks despite being in the firing line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管與特朗普關係密切，去年五月在海灣之行中受到英雄般的歡迎，但這些君主國發現自己在談判中處於邊緣地位，儘管它們處於攻擊的前線。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The Gulf states have struggled to shape the Trump administration's behaviour toward Iran,&#34; said Hasan Alhasan of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“海灣國家在塑造特朗普政府對伊朗的行為方面面臨困難，” 國際戰略研究所的哈桑·阿爾哈桑（Hasan Alhasan）説。</p>
</div><p>&#34;They did not want the US to initiate war against Iran -– which it did -– and it's no surprise that they are unable to get Washington to prioritise their own security interests in the negotiations,&#34; as Trump seeks what he Alhasan called a &#34;face-saving exit&#34;.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“他們不希望美國對伊朗發起戰爭——而美國確實如此——因此毫不奇怪，他們無法讓華盛頓在談判中優先考慮他們自己的安全利益，” 因為特朗普尋求阿爾哈桑所稱的 “面子工程” 退出。</p>
</div><p>aya/th/dc</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>aya/th/dc</p>
</div>

隨着美伊危機的持續，海灣國家陷入了僵局