<p>中國出口商開始在廣泛的商品中提高價格，因為伊朗戰爭推動了與石油相關的輸入成本，這一變化可能預示着全球通脹壓力的上升。根據貿易數據監測機構編制並彭博社分析的數據，超過十個類別的家居用品在三月份錄得同比價格上漲，結束了多年的下降趨勢，這一趨勢曾幫助全球抑制通脹。面臨塑料、合成纖維和化學品成本上升的出口商已開始將這些漲幅轉嫁給消費者，像注射器這樣的商品價格上漲幅度高達 20%，而與聚酯相關的服裝類別則錄得低至中等的單位數增長。</p>
<p>供應鏈的壓力似乎正在迅速加大，因為供應商在三月份頻繁提高輸入價格，反映出能源衝擊如何迅速滲透到生產中。製造商還面臨金屬和半導體成本上升的壓力，進一步增加了利潤空間的壓力，尤其是在家電領域。這一動態標誌着近年來的逆轉，當時中國出口價格的下降估計使發達經濟體的通脹降低了 0.3% 到 0.5%，幫助抑制了美國、英國和歐洲等市場的價格增長。彭博經濟學現在估計，2026 年通脹超過 3% 的情況可能在這些地區重新出現，受到能源成本衝擊的影響。</p>
<p>儘管由於典型的貿易滯後，消費者尚未完全感受到影響，但這一趨勢表明，如果衝突持續，未來幾個月通脹壓力可能會加大。高盛估計，油價上漲 10% 通常會在第一年內使中國出口價格上升約 50 個基點，峯值效應發生在初始衝擊後的四到五個月。一些出口商已經開始調整，包括新訂單價格上漲約 7% 的報告，而關鍵原材料如聚氯乙烯在三月份的峯值水平上漲了高達 80%。與此同時，中國的競爭壓力和疲弱的國內需求可能限制價格上漲的幅度，這意味着即使更廣泛的通縮趨勢開始減弱，中國也可能吸收部分全球通脹衝擊。</p>

中國 MSCI ETF - iShares

中概股 ETF - PowerShares

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

<p>中國出口商因伊朗戰爭導致的石油相關原材料成本上升而提高了各種商品的價格，這預示着全球通脹壓力的潛在增加。三月份，超過十種家居用品的價格同比上漲，扭轉了此前幫助抑制通脹的多年下降趨勢。像注射器這樣的商品價格上漲幅度高達 20%。塑料、金屬和半導體的成本上升給製造商帶來了壓力。彭博經濟學警告稱，受到這些能源成本衝擊的影響，發達經濟體的通脹率可能在 2026 年回升至 3% 以上</p>

<p>Chinese exporters are beginning to lift prices across a wide range of goods as the Iran war drives up oil-linked input costs, a shift that could signal rising global inflation pressures. Data compiled by Trade Data Monitor and analyzed by Bloomberg shows more than a dozen categories of household goods recorded year-on-year price increases in March, snapping a multi-year decline that had helped restrain inflation globally. Exporters facing higher costs in plastics, synthetic fibers, and chemicals have started passing those increases through, with items like syringes seeing price increases of as much as 20%, while apparel categories tied to polyester posted low- to mid-single digit gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國出口商開始在廣泛的商品中提高價格，因為伊朗戰爭推動了與石油相關的輸入成本，這一變化可能預示着全球通脹壓力的上升。根據貿易數據監測機構編制並彭博社分析的數據，超過十個類別的家居用品在三月份錄得同比價格上漲，結束了多年的下降趨勢，這一趨勢曾幫助全球抑制通脹。面臨塑料、合成纖維和化學品成本上升的出口商已開始將這些漲幅轉嫁給消費者，像注射器這樣的商品價格上漲幅度高達 20%，而與聚酯相關的服裝類別則錄得低至中等的單位數增長。</p>
</div><p>The pressure appears to be building quickly across supply chains, as suppliers raised input prices frequently during March, reflecting how rapidly the energy shock is filtering through production. Manufacturers are also dealing with higher costs for metals and semiconductors, adding another layer of margin pressure, particularly in home appliances. This dynamic marks a reversal from recent years, when falling Chinese export prices shaved an estimated 0.3% to 0.5% off inflation in advanced economies, helping contain price growth in markets such as the US, the UK, and Europe. Bloomberg Economics now estimates that inflation above 3% in 2026 could be back in play across these regions following the energy cost shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供應鏈的壓力似乎正在迅速加大，因為供應商在三月份頻繁提高輸入價格，反映出能源衝擊如何迅速滲透到生產中。製造商還面臨金屬和半導體成本上升的壓力，進一步增加了利潤空間的壓力，尤其是在家電領域。這一動態標誌着近年來的逆轉，當時中國出口價格的下降估計使發達經濟體的通脹降低了 0.3% 到 0.5%，幫助抑制了美國、英國和歐洲等市場的價格增長。彭博經濟學現在估計，2026 年通脹超過 3% 的情況可能在這些地區重新出現，受到能源成本衝擊的影響。</p>
</div><p>While the full impact has not yet reached consumers due to typical trade lags, the trajectory suggests inflationary pressure could build in the coming months if the conflict persists. Goldman Sachs  estimates that a 10% increase in oil prices typically lifts Chinese export prices by around 50 basis points over the first year, with peak effects occurring four to five months after the initial shock. Some exporters have already started adjusting, including reported price increases of around 7% on new orders, while key inputs such as polyvinyl chloride surged as much as 80% at peak levels in March. At the same time, competitive pressures and weak domestic demand in China could limit how much prices rise, meaning the country may absorb part of the global inflation shock even as the broader disinflationary trend begins to fade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管由於典型的貿易滯後，消費者尚未完全感受到影響，但這一趨勢表明，如果衝突持續，未來幾個月通脹壓力可能會加大。高盛估計，油價上漲 10% 通常會在第一年內使中國出口價格上升約 50 個基點，峯值效應發生在初始衝擊後的四到五個月。一些出口商已經開始調整，包括新訂單價格上漲約 7% 的報告，而關鍵原材料如聚氯乙烯在三月份的峯值水平上漲了高達 80%。與此同時，中國的競爭壓力和疲弱的國內需求可能限制價格上漲的幅度，這意味着即使更廣泛的通縮趨勢開始減弱，中國也可能吸收部分全球通脹衝擊。</p>
</div>

Chinese Export Prices Rise Up To 20% As Iran War Lifts Costs

- 中國出口商因伊朗戰爭推高了商品價格，影響通脹。  
- 家居用品和注射器等價格顯著上漲，反映供應鏈壓力加大。  
- 高盛預計油價上漲將使中國出口價格上升，通脹壓力可能再次顯現。

由於伊朗戰爭推高了成本，中國的出口價格上漲了多達 20%