<p>全球債券市場正在朝着截然不同的方向急劇變化，投資者開始注意到這一點。曾經看似更加穩定的利率背景現在正在轉變，因為美國與伊朗之間日益加深的僵局推動主要經濟體的收益率上升。自週一以來，兩年期美國國債收益率已上升 12 個基點，達到 3.83%；而英國兩年期收益率則飆升 30 個基點，達到 4.42%，創下一個月以來最大的周漲幅。這一變化似乎與能源市場的壓力重新加大有關，布倫特原油正朝着自衝突初期以來最大的周漲幅邁進，這引發了人們對通脹可能比之前預期的更長時間保持高位的擔憂。</p>
<p>這種變化直接影響了利率預期。最近曾質疑中央銀行是否會繼續採取激進緊縮措施的交易員們，現在正在重新調整頭寸，歐洲央行的加息預期從 50 個基點上升至 67 個基點，而英格蘭銀行的預期則從本週早些時候的 30 個基點上升至 63 個基點。在美國，掉期市場現在發出信號，表明美聯儲可能會在年底前保持政策穩定，這與本週早些時候大約 50% 的降息概率形成了顯著對比。美國和英國的強勁數據，加上地緣政治的不確定性，正在強化對降息的更加謹慎的態度。</p>
<p>投資者正在相應調整。Jupiter Asset Management 的 Ariel Bezalel 表示，他正在獲利了結，減少對利率和信用的敞口，同時持有更多現金以應對潛在的波動，指出對 3 月份債券市場劇烈波動可能重現的擔憂。同時，BlackRock 的 Wei Li 強調，政策制定者面臨着一個具有挑戰性的環境，因為在衝突開始之前，通脹壓力已經很高。即使在緊張局勢緩解的情況下，她也表示市場可能不會回到之前預期多次降息的背景，特別是在下週美國、歐洲、日本、英國和加拿大即將迎來一系列中央銀行決策的情況下。</p>

UTWO

美國中期國債 ETF - iShares

美國短期國債指數 ETF - iShares

7-10 年美國國債 ETF - iShares

XTWO

<p>全球債券收益率因美國與伊朗之間緊張局勢升級而急劇上升，美國兩年期國債收益率達到 3.83%，英國收益率為 4.42%。這一變化與能源市場壓力增加有關，引發了通脹擔憂。交易員們正在調整利率預期，預計歐洲央行和英格蘭銀行將會加息。投資者變得謹慎，一些人減少了對利率和信用的敞口。分析師指出，即使緊張局勢緩解，市場也可能不會恢復到之前對多次降息的預期，尤其是在即將到來的央行決策面前</p>

<p>Global bond markets are moving sharply in a different direction, and investors are starting to take notice. What had looked like a more stable rates backdrop is now shifting, as a deepening stalemate between the US and Iran pushes yields higher across major economies. Two-year US Treasury yields have climbed 12 basis points since Monday to 3.83%, while UK two-year yields have surged 30 basis points to 4.42%, marking the largest weekly increases in a month. The move appears tied to renewed pressure in energy markets, with Brent crude on track for its biggest weekly gain since the early phase of the conflict, raising concerns that inflation could stay elevated longer than previously expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球債券市場正在朝着截然不同的方向急劇變化，投資者開始注意到這一點。曾經看似更加穩定的利率背景現在正在轉變，因為美國與伊朗之間日益加深的僵局推動主要經濟體的收益率上升。自週一以來，兩年期美國國債收益率已上升 12 個基點，達到 3.83%；而英國兩年期收益率則飆升 30 個基點，達到 4.42%，創下一個月以來最大的周漲幅。這一變化似乎與能源市場的壓力重新加大有關，布倫特原油正朝着自衝突初期以來最大的周漲幅邁進，這引發了人們對通脹可能比之前預期的更長時間保持高位的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>That shift is feeding directly into rate expectations. Traders who had recently questioned whether central banks would follow through on aggressive tightening are now repositioning, with pricing for the European Central Bank rising to 67 basis points of increases this year from 50 basis points, while expectations for the Bank of England have climbed to 63 basis points from 30 basis points earlier in the week. In the US, swaps markets are now signaling the Federal Reserve is likely to hold policy steady through year-end, a notable change from earlier in the week when there was a roughly 50% chance of a quarter-point cut. Stronger data in both the US and UK, alongside geopolitical uncertainty, is reinforcing a more cautious stance toward rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種變化直接影響了利率預期。最近曾質疑中央銀行是否會繼續採取激進緊縮措施的交易員們，現在正在重新調整頭寸，歐洲央行的加息預期從 50 個基點上升至 67 個基點，而英格蘭銀行的預期則從本週早些時候的 30 個基點上升至 63 個基點。在美國，掉期市場現在發出信號，表明美聯儲可能會在年底前保持政策穩定，這與本週早些時候大約 50% 的降息概率形成了顯著對比。美國和英國的強勁數據，加上地緣政治的不確定性，正在強化對降息的更加謹慎的態度。</p>
</div><p>Investors are adjusting accordingly. Ariel Bezalel at Jupiter Asset Management said he is taking profits and reducing exposure to both rates and credit, while holding more cash as a buffer against potential volatility, noting concerns that the sharp bond-market swings seen in March could return. At the same time, BlackRock's  Wei Li highlighted that policymakers are facing a challenging environment, as inflation pressures were already elevated before the conflict began. Even in a scenario where tensions ease, she suggested markets may not return to the earlier backdrop where multiple rate cuts were expected, particularly with a heavy slate of central bank decisions approaching next week across the US, Europe, Japan, the UK, and Canada.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者正在相應調整。Jupiter Asset Management 的 Ariel Bezalel 表示，他正在獲利了結，減少對利率和信用的敞口，同時持有更多現金以應對潛在的波動，指出對 3 月份債券市場劇烈波動可能重現的擔憂。同時，BlackRock 的 Wei Li 強調，政策制定者面臨着一個具有挑戰性的環境，因為在衝突開始之前，通脹壓力已經很高。即使在緊張局勢緩解的情況下，她也表示市場可能不會回到之前預期多次降息的背景，特別是在下週美國、歐洲、日本、英國和加拿大即將迎來一系列中央銀行決策的情況下。</p>
</div>

Global Bond Yields Jump As US Two-Year Hits 3.83% Amid Iran Tensions

GuruFocus

US Treasury 2 Year Note ETF

BondBloxx Bloomberg 2 Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF

Jupiter Fund Management plc

貝萊德

BlackRock Tech and Private Equity Term Trust

BLACKROCK MULTI-SECTOR INCOME TR COM USD0.001(S/R 09/09/2025) WI

Blackrock Enhanced Div Achievers Trust

BlackRock Science and Tech Term Trust

BlackRock Multi-Sector Income Trust

由於伊朗緊張局勢，美國兩年期國債收益率達到 3.83%，全球債券收益率隨之跳漲