<p>[東京] 日本銀行（BOJ）預計將在週二（4 月 28 日）維持利率不變，這給行長植田和男帶來了溝通挑戰，因為疲軟的日元徘徊在過去幹預的水平附近。</p>
<p>就在幾周前，市場和經濟學家們都在押注植田和他的董事會會繼續推進正常化進程，並在週二的為期兩天的會議結束時再次加息。但隨着美國總統唐納德·特朗普對伊朗的戰爭導致油價飆升，這些押注逐漸消散，市場現在僅預計有 7% 的可能性會採取行動，許多經濟學家轉而預測將在 6 月加息。</p>
<p>假設沒有意外情況發生，儘管這一點無法排除，因為知情人士表示最終決定將在最後一刻做出，焦點將迅速轉向植田的政策信號。聲明通常在東京時間中午左右發佈，植田的新聞發佈會通常在下午 3:30 開始。</p>
<p>“關鍵在於日本銀行將多麼強烈地傳達他們繼續加息以遏制日元貶值的決心，” 前日本銀行國際部負責人永井茂人表示。</p>
<p>週一早上，日元對美元的匯率徘徊在 159.50 附近，距離當局在 2024 年最後一次干預以支持日元的水平不遠。在週四的彭博新聲音活動上，財政大臣片山聰警告稱，官員們與美國同行保持全天候密切聯繫，因為東京對施壓日元的投機行為保持高度警惕。</p>
<p>上週，知情人士告訴彭博社，日本銀行傾向於將政策利率維持在 0.75% 不變，考慮到伊朗戰爭帶來的不確定性。官員們仍然承諾遲早會提高借貸成本，他們表示。</p>
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<p>但不同的觀點表明，董事會九名成員之間可能會出現更大的分歧，他們在 3 月的最後一次會議上以 8-1 的投票結果決定維持政策設置不變。</p>
<p>與伊朗衝突相關的波動性加劇了對能源成本和供應鏈韌性的擔憂，使政策制定者在下一次加息時難以做出決策。</p>
<p>“日本銀行的溝通方式有其侷限性，” 野村證券首席策略師松澤中表示。“在下次會議前，日本當局是否能夠遏制日元貶值和債券收益率曲線陡峭化仍不明朗。”</p>
<p>另見</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/dedd4d1c4f9ca845ecb3a8d25a3166d52f3b6f40a1db1989d8abaab3db4935b3/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/dedd4d1c4f9ca845ecb3a8d25a3166d52f3b6f40a1db1989d8abaab3db4935b3/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw"/></p>
<h3>隨着對日本銀行加息的押注減弱，日本政府債券反彈</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/35df5648f85513ef3d3af221a2b38e8f1bb661697d288b97f8aa844358b21167/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/35df5648f85513ef3d3af221a2b38e8f1bb661697d288b97f8aa844358b21167/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw"/></p>
<h3>日本銀行行長避免暗示 4 月加息，打破鷹派市場押注</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/89dceaeed445968fb2fbb471792cf646e50cc32f87bb87bb19695a75d7f7684f/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/89dceaeed445968fb2fbb471792cf646e50cc32f87bb87bb19695a75d7f7684f/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw"/></p>
<h3>國際貨幣基金組織表示，日本銀行能夠應對來自伊朗戰爭的通脹衝擊</h3>
<p>上週，日元的三個月期權隱含波動率降至兩年低點，因為對潛在干預的猜測限制了下行風險。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/418ae52c16aadfd7360360b8aff151ed23f1780079f123ea365a610b94fc34dc?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/418ae52c16aadfd7360360b8aff151ed23f1780079f123ea365a610b94fc34dc"/></p>
<p>植田和男本週將力求避免重蹈覆轍。照片來源：彭博社</p>
<p>市場參與者對植田在 2024 年 4 月的新聞發佈會記憶猶新，當時當局維持政策不變。行長對日元的評論被視為鴿派，導致該貨幣大幅貶值，最終在幾天後促使干預。植田本週將力求避免重蹈覆轍。</p>
<p>美國聯邦儲備委員會和歐洲中央銀行本週也將召開會議，預計將維持現狀。日本銀行在維持貨幣正常化方面的壓力部分源於與同行之間的持續差距，以及考慮到通脹的實際利率仍然深度負值。</p>
<p>與政策聲明一起發佈的更新季度經濟展望應有助於為持續的鷹派立場提供依據。知情人士告訴彭博社，日本銀行董事會可能會考慮將本月開始的財政年度的價格展望大幅上調，最新預測為 1.9%。</p>
<p>“考慮到企業日益積極的定價行為和日元貶值壓力加劇，我們認為價格上漲的風險大於對增長的打擊，” SBI 新生銀行高級經濟學家森翔太表示。</p>
<p>數據顯示，日本 3 月份的通脹在五個月內首次加速。另一項指標顯示，服務生產者價格較上月上漲 1.25%，是約 36 年來的最大增幅，排除銷售税上調的時期。</p>
<p>與此同時，消費者信心降至自新冠疫情以來的最大跌幅，預示着需求即將受到打擊。分析師的中位估計是日本銀行將今年的增長預測從 1% 下調至 0.8%。</p>
<p>“觀察經濟展望如何修訂將很重要，以評估政策制定者如何看待因油價上漲而對增長帶來的下行風險，以及這些風險對潛在通脹的影響，” 岡三證券首席債券策略師長谷川直也表示。</p>
<p>植田本月進入其行長任期的第四年。在此期間，他已 dismantled yield curve control，結束負利率，並將政策利率提高至三十年來的最高水平。</p>
<p>“他只剩下兩年了，” 前日本銀行首席經濟學家關根年隆説。“他已經做了必要的事情，並且在需要時會繼續這樣做。” 彭博社</p>
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<p>日本銀行（BOJ）預計將在即將召開的會議上維持利率在 0.75% 的水平，原因是日元貶值和由於地緣政治緊張局勢導致的油價上漲帶來的挑戰。行長植田和男面臨溝通挑戰，因為市場預期從潛在的加息轉向關注政策信號。日元貶值和通脹壓力使得日本銀行的決策更加複雜，分析師預測價格前景可能會增加。消費者信心顯著下降，引發了對未來需求的擔憂</p>

<p>[TOKYO] The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Tuesday (Apr 28), setting up a communication challenge for governor Kazuo Ueda as the foundering yen hovers near levels that have prompted past interventions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[東京] 日本銀行（BOJ）預計將在週二（4 月 28 日）維持利率不變，這給行長植田和男帶來了溝通挑戰，因為疲軟的日元徘徊在過去幹預的水平附近。</p>
</div><p>Just weeks ago, markets and economists were betting Ueda and his board would press ahead with their normalisation efforts and deliver another hike at the end of their two-day meeting on Tuesday. Those bets dissipated as US President Donald Trump’s war on Iran sent oil prices surging, with markets now pricing just a 7 per cent chance of a move, and many economists switching to a June increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在幾周前，市場和經濟學家們都在押注植田和他的董事會會繼續推進正常化進程，並在週二的為期兩天的會議結束時再次加息。但隨着美國總統唐納德·特朗普對伊朗的戰爭導致油價飆升，這些押注逐漸消散，市場現在僅預計有 7% 的可能性會採取行動，許多經濟學家轉而預測將在 6 月加息。</p>
</div><p>Assuming there’s no shock, which cannot be ruled out as sources familiar with deliberations have said the final decision will be made at the last possible moment, focus will rapidly shift to Ueda’s policy signals. The statement usually lands around noon in Tokyo, with Ueda’s press conference typically starting at 3.30 pm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假設沒有意外情況發生，儘管這一點無法排除，因為知情人士表示最終決定將在最後一刻做出，焦點將迅速轉向植田的政策信號。聲明通常在東京時間中午左右發佈，植田的新聞發佈會通常在下午 3:30 開始。</p>
</div><p>“The key thing is how strongly the BOJ will communicate their determination to continue rate hikes to curb the yen’s depreciation,” said Shigeto Nagai, former head of the BOJ’s international department.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“關鍵在於日本銀行將多麼強烈地傳達他們繼續加息以遏制日元貶值的決心，” 前日本銀行國際部負責人永井茂人表示。</p>
</div><p>The currency was hovering around 159.50 per US dollar early Monday in Tokyo, not far from the level where authorities last intervened to support the yen in 2024. At a Bloomberg New Voices event in Tokyo on Thursday, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that officials are in close contact around the clock with their US counterparts as Tokyo remains on high alert over speculative moves that are weighing on the yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週一早上，日元對美元的匯率徘徊在 159.50 附近，距離當局在 2024 年最後一次干預以支持日元的水平不遠。在週四的彭博新聲音活動上，財政大臣片山聰警告稱，官員們與美國同行保持全天候密切聯繫，因為東京對施壓日元的投機行為保持高度警惕。</p>
</div><p>Last week, sources familiar with planning told Bloomberg that the BOJ was leaning towards keeping its policy rate unchanged at 0.75 per cent, given uncertainties stemming from the war in Iran. Officials are still committed to raising borrowing costs sooner or later, they said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週，知情人士告訴彭博社，日本銀行傾向於將政策利率維持在 0.75% 不變，考慮到伊朗戰爭帶來的不確定性。官員們仍然承諾遲早會提高借貸成本，他們表示。</p>
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</div><p>But differing viewpoints suggest the possibility of a widening divergence among the board’s nine members, who voted 8-1 to hold policy settings steady at the last meeting in March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但不同的觀點表明，董事會九名成員之間可能會出現更大的分歧，他們在 3 月的最後一次會議上以 8-1 的投票結果決定維持政策設置不變。</p>
</div><p>Volatility tied to the Iran conflict has heightened uncertainty around energy costs and supply-chain durability, making it difficult for policymakers to pull the trigger on their next hike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與伊朗衝突相關的波動性加劇了對能源成本和供應鏈韌性的擔憂，使政策制定者在下一次加息時難以做出決策。</p>
</div><p>“There are limits to how hawkish the BOJ’s communication can be,” said Naka Matsuzawa, chief strategist at Nomura Securities. “It is unclear whether Japanese authorities will be able to contain yen depreciation and bond curve steepening in the run-up to the next meeting in June.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“日本銀行的溝通方式有其侷限性，” 野村證券首席策略師松澤中表示。“在下次會議前，日本當局是否能夠遏制日元貶值和債券收益率曲線陡峭化仍不明朗。”</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另見</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/dedd4d1c4f9ca845ecb3a8d25a3166d52f3b6f40a1db1989d8abaab3db4935b3/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/dedd4d1c4f9ca845ecb3a8d25a3166d52f3b6f40a1db1989d8abaab3db4935b3?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Japanese government bonds rally as bets for BOJ rate hike fade</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>隨着對日本銀行加息的押注減弱，日本政府債券反彈</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/35df5648f85513ef3d3af221a2b38e8f1bb661697d288b97f8aa844358b21167/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/35df5648f85513ef3d3af221a2b38e8f1bb661697d288b97f8aa844358b21167?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>BOJ chief avoids hints of April rate hike, shattering hawkish market bets</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>日本銀行行長避免暗示 4 月加息，打破鷹派市場押注</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/89dceaeed445968fb2fbb471792cf646e50cc32f87bb87bb19695a75d7f7684f/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/89dceaeed445968fb2fbb471792cf646e50cc32f87bb87bb19695a75d7f7684f?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>IMF says Bank of Japan can see through inflationary shock from Iran war</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>國際貨幣基金組織表示，日本銀行能夠應對來自伊朗戰爭的通脹衝擊</h3>
</div><p>The yen’s three-month option-implied volatility fell to a two-year low last week as speculation of potential intervention capped downside risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週，日元的三個月期權隱含波動率降至兩年低點，因為對潛在干預的猜測限制了下行風險。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/418ae52c16aadfd7360360b8aff151ed23f1780079f123ea365a610b94fc34dc" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/418ae52c16aadfd7360360b8aff151ed23f1780079f123ea365a610b94fc34dc"/></p>
<p>Kazuo Ueda will be keen to avoid repeating that experience this week. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>植田和男本週將力求避免重蹈覆轍。照片來源：彭博社</p>
</div><p>Memories remain fresh among market participants of Ueda’s press conference in April 2024, after authorities held settings steady. The governor’s comments on the yen were taken as dovish, sparking a rout in the currency that ultimately prompted intervention days later. Ueda will be keen to avoid repeating that experience this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場參與者對植田在 2024 年 4 月的新聞發佈會記憶猶新，當時當局維持政策不變。行長對日元的評論被視為鴿派，導致該貨幣大幅貶值，最終在幾天後促使干預。植田本週將力求避免重蹈覆轍。</p>
</div><p>The US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank also meet this week and are widely expected to stand pat. The BOJ’s pressure to sustain monetary normalisation is driven in part by the ongoing gap with its peers and the fact that real rates that factor in inflation remain deeply negative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國聯邦儲備委員會和歐洲中央銀行本週也將召開會議，預計將維持現狀。日本銀行在維持貨幣正常化方面的壓力部分源於與同行之間的持續差距，以及考慮到通脹的實際利率仍然深度負值。</p>
</div><p>An updated quarterly economic outlook to be released with the policy statement should help justify an ongoing hawkish stance. The BOJ board is likely to consider a sharp increase in its price outlook for the fiscal year that started this month from the latest projection of 1.9 per cent, sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg earlier this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與政策聲明一起發佈的更新季度經濟展望應有助於為持續的鷹派立場提供依據。知情人士告訴彭博社，日本銀行董事會可能會考慮將本月開始的財政年度的價格展望大幅上調，最新預測為 1.9%。</p>
</div><p>“We see the risk of upward pressure on prices as greater than the hit to growth, given firms’ increasingly proactive pricing behaviour and the intensifying depreciation pressure on the yen,” said Shotaro Mori, senior economist at SBI Shinsei Bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“考慮到企業日益積極的定價行為和日元貶值壓力加劇，我們認為價格上漲的風險大於對增長的打擊，” SBI 新生銀行高級經濟學家森翔太表示。</p>
</div><p>Japan’s inflation quickened in March for the first time in five months, data on Friday showed. A separate gauge showed service producer prices rose 1.25 per cent from a month earlier, the most in about 36 years, excluding periods when there was a hike in the sales tax.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據顯示，日本 3 月份的通脹在五個月內首次加速。另一項指標顯示，服務生產者價格較上月上漲 1.25%，是約 36 年來的最大增幅，排除銷售税上調的時期。</p>
</div><p>Meantime, sentiment among consumers has tumbled by the most since the Covid-19 pandemic, foreshadowing a looming blow to demand. The median estimate of analysts is for the BOJ to cut its growth projection for this year to 0.8 per cent from 1 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，消費者信心降至自新冠疫情以來的最大跌幅，預示着需求即將受到打擊。分析師的中位估計是日本銀行將今年的增長預測從 1% 下調至 0.8%。</p>
</div><p>“It will be important to see how the economic outlook is revised to assess how policymakers view the downside risks to growth from higher oil prices and, in turn, their impact on underlying inflation,” said Naoya Hasegawa, chief bond strategist at Okasan Securities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“觀察經濟展望如何修訂將很重要，以評估政策制定者如何看待因油價上漲而對增長帶來的下行風險，以及這些風險對潛在通脹的影響，” 岡三證券首席債券策略師長谷川直也表示。</p>
</div><p>Ueda entered the fourth year of his governorship this month. In that period, he’s dismantled yield curve control, ended negative interest rates, and lifted policy rates to their highest in three decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>植田本月進入其行長任期的第四年。在此期間，他已 dismantled yield curve control，結束負利率，並將政策利率提高至三十年來的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>“He has only two years left,” said Toshitaka Sekine, a former BOJ chief economist. “He has done what’s needed and he will keep doing it when it’s necessary.” BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“他只剩下兩年了，” 前日本銀行首席經濟學家關根年隆説。“他已經做了必要的事情，並且在需要時會繼續這樣做。” 彭博社</p>
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BOJ seen holding rates in messaging risk for Ueda as yen teeters

- 日本銀行預計將在 4 月 28 日維持利率不變，面臨溝通挑戰。  
- 隨着油價飆升，市場對加息預期下降，預計 6 月加息的可能性更大。  
- 日元貶值壓力加劇，可能影響政策制定者決策與經濟展望。

由於日元處於不穩定狀態，日本央行在信息傳遞中被認為會維持利率不變，這對植田和男來説構成了風險