<p>華爾街的 “五月賣出，離開市場” 口號再次受到關注，因為市場接近一年中普遍被認為最弱的時期，但最新數據表明，這一季節性策略可能 已經嚴重過時。</p>
<p>美國銀行的首席技術策略師 <strong>保羅·西安納</strong> 本週挑戰了這一存在數十年的規則，稱歷史趨勢顯示，股票在初夏往往表現良好，而不是立即下跌。</p>
<h2>美國銀行剛剛終結了五月賣出交易：以下是替代方案</h2>
<p>首先，西安納對自 1928 年以來標準普爾 500 指數的每個六個月滾動窗口進行了數據分析。</p>
<p>從五月到十月確實是日曆上最弱的時期——上漲 66% 的時間，平均回報為 2.47%。而從十一月到四月則是最強的，上漲 70% 的時間，平均回報為 5.20%。</p>
<p>到目前為止，這一切都很熟悉。</p>
<p>但弱勢並不在於這一説法所暗示的地方。</p>
<h3>標準普爾 500 指數季節性（六個月週期）</h3>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>六個月週期</th>
<th>平均回報</th>
<th>中位回報</th>
<th>上漲百分比</th>
<th>平均回撤</th>
<th>中位回撤</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>一月 – 六月</td>
<td>3.85%</td>
<td>5.01%</td>
<td>65.3%</td>
<td>-7.60%</td>
<td>-5.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>二月 – 七月</td>
<td>3.98%</td>
<td>4.56%</td>
<td>68.4%</td>
<td>-7.90%</td>
<td>-4.85%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>三月 – 八月</td>
<td>4.98%</td>
<td>4.94%</td>
<td>70.4%</td>
<td>-7.58%</td>
<td>-5.39%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>四月 – 九月</td>
<td>3.54%</td>
<td>3.94%</td>
<td>66.3%</td>
<td>-7.79%</td>
<td>-4.29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>五月 – 十月</strong></td>
<td><strong>2.47%</strong></td>
<td><strong>3.35%</strong></td>
<td><strong>66.3%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-8.67%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-5.21%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>六月 – 十一月</td>
<td>3.63%</td>
<td>4.58%</td>
<td>66.3%</td>
<td>-8.31%</td>
<td>-5.24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>七月 – 十二月</td>
<td>4.25%</td>
<td>5.52%</td>
<td>68.4%</td>
<td>-8.28%</td>
<td>-4.93%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>八月 – 一月</td>
<td>3.66%</td>
<td>4.95%</td>
<td>66.0%</td>
<td>-8.68%</td>
<td>-5.68%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>九月 – 二月</td>
<td>3.06%</td>
<td>5.00%</td>
<td>63.9%</td>
<td>-8.56%</td>
<td>-5.29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>十月 – 三月</td>
<td>4.69%</td>
<td>5.92%</td>
<td>62.9%</td>
<td>-7.65%</td>
<td>-4.94%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>十一月 – 四月</strong></td>
<td><strong>5.20%</strong></td>
<td><strong>5.39%</strong></td>
<td><strong>70.1%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-6.76%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-4.11%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>十二月 – 五月</td>
<td>4.29%</td>
<td>4.63%</td>
<td>66.0%</td>
<td>-7.28%</td>
<td>-4.60%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>當西安納將週期分解為三個月窗口時，情況發生了翻轉。</p>
<p>六月到八月實際上是全年第二強的三個月週期，平均回報為 3.30%。</p>
<p>痛苦主要集中在八月到十月，這是自 1928 年以來唯一一個平均回報為負的三個月週期，回報為-0.02%。</p>
<p>“雖然五月到十月的平均六個月回報最低，但它的痛苦主要集中在八月到十月的時期，” 西安納説。</p>
<p>這位專家表示，投資者可能不應該遵循經典的 “五月賣出，離開市場” 策略，並補充説，更好的策略可能是 “在八月賣出，並在萬聖節前再次買入。”</p>
<h3>標準普爾 500 指數季節性（三個月週期）</h3>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>三個月週期</th>
<th>平均回報</th>
<th>中位回報</th>
<th>上漲百分比</th>
<th>平均回撤</th>
<th>中位回撤</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>一月 – 三月（第一季度）</td>
<td>1.64%</td>
<td>2.10%</td>
<td>60.20%</td>
<td>-5.28%</td>
<td>-3.74%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>二月 – 四月</td>
<td>1.50%</td>
<td>2.28%</td>
<td>67.35%</td>
<td>-5.51%</td>
<td>-3.87%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>三月 – 五月</td>
<td>2.02%</td>
<td>2.61%</td>
<td>61.22%</td>
<td>-5.64%</td>
<td>-2.97%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>四月 – 六月（第二季度）</td>
<td>2.38%</td>
<td>2.24%</td>
<td>60.20%</td>
<td>-5.34%</td>
<td>-3.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>五月 – 七月</td>
<td>2.46%</td>
<td>2.04%</td>
<td>64.29%</td>
<td>-5.35%</td>
<td>-2.97%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>六月 – 八月</td>
<td>3.30%</td>
<td>2.45%</td>
<td>65.31%</td>
<td>-5.08%</td>
<td>-3.36%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>七月 – 九月（第三季度）</td>
<td>1.39%</td>
<td>2.91%</td>
<td>60.20%</td>
<td>-5.39%</td>
<td>-2.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>八月 – 十月</strong></td>
<td><strong>-0.02%</strong></td>
<td><strong>0.90%</strong></td>
<td><strong>55.10%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-7.38%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-5.31%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>九月 – 十一月</td>
<td>0.55%</td>
<td>2.45%</td>
<td>64.29%</td>
<td>-7.40%</td>
<td>-4.87%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>十月 – 十二月（第四季度）</td>
<td>2.89%</td>
<td>4.63%</td>
<td>74.49%</td>
<td>-5.66%</td>
<td>-3.52%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>十一月 – 一月</td>
<td>3.57%</td>
<td>4.17%</td>
<td>67.01%</td>
<td>-4.56%</td>
<td>-2.25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>十二月 – 二月</td>
<td>2.45%</td>
<td>2.50%</td>
<td>62.89%</td>
<td>-4.58%</td>
<td>-3.63%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>平均值</td>
<td>2.01%</td>
<td>2.49%</td>
<td>63.54%</td>
<td>-5.59%</td>
<td>-3.59</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2>為什麼五月特別有利於納斯達克 100 指數</h2>
<p>如果美國銀行的季節性熱圖中有一個交易被標記為五月最強，那就是做多納斯達克 100 指數——通過 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust</strong> 跟蹤的 (NASDAQ: QQQ)。</p>
<p>自 1986 年以來，該指數在五月的平均漲幅為 +2.19%，上漲 68% 的時間——這一趨勢自 2016 年以來更加明顯。</p>
<p>西安納指出，即使在 2018 年——<strong>唐納德·特朗普</strong> 總統第一任期的第二年，這一歷史上拖累股票的環境下，納斯達克 100 指數也違背了這一模式並上漲。</p>
<p>這現在很重要，因為 2026 年也是總統週期的第二年。</p>
<p><strong>另請閲讀：</strong>
<strong>收益波動觀察：本週 Sandisk 和五大科技股的預期</strong></p>
<p><em>照片來源：Pla2na/Shutterstock</em></p>

納斯達克 100 指數

ISVAF

納指 100 ETF - Invesco

納斯達克 100 指數 ETF - Invesco

3 倍做多納指 ETF - ProShares

<p>美國銀行的保羅·西安娜（Paul Ciana）對 “五月賣出，離開市場” 的説法提出挑戰，建議轉向 “五月買入，八月賣出”。歷史數據顯示，納斯達克 100 指數在五月的平均漲幅為 +2.19%，成功率為 68%。西安娜的分析表明，雖然五月到十月通常表現較弱，但真正的下跌發生在八月到十月。他建議在八月賣出，並在萬聖節前再次買入，強調自 1986 年以來，納斯達克 100 指數在五月的表現一直良好，即使在市場條件嚴峻的情況下也是如此</p>

<p>Wall Street's &#34;sell in May and go away&#34; mantra is back in focus as markets approach what's widely seen as the weakest stretch of the year, but fresh data suggests the seasonal playbook may be badly outdated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街的 “五月賣出，離開市場” 口號再次受到關注，因為市場接近一年中普遍被認為最弱的時期，但最新數據表明，這一季節性策略可能 已經嚴重過時。</p>
</div><p>Bank of America's chief technical strategist <strong>Paul Ciana</strong> challenged the decades-old rule this week, saying historical trends show equities often hold up through early summer rather than rolling over immediately.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國銀行的首席技術策略師 <strong>保羅·西安納</strong> 本週挑戰了這一存在數十年的規則，稱歷史趨勢顯示，股票在初夏往往表現良好，而不是立即下跌。</p>
</div><h2>BofA Just Killed The Sell In May Trade: Here’s What Replaces It</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美國銀行剛剛終結了五月賣出交易：以下是替代方案</h2>
</div><p>First, Ciana ran the numbers on every six-month rolling window for the S&amp;P 500 since 1928.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，西安納對自 1928 年以來標準普爾 500 指數的每個六個月滾動窗口進行了數據分析。</p>
</div><p>May through October is indeed the weakest stretch on the calendar — up 66% of the time with a 2.47% average return. November through April is the strongest, up 70% of the time with a 5.20% average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從五月到十月確實是日曆上最弱的時期——上漲 66% 的時間，平均回報為 2.47%。而從十一月到四月則是最強的，上漲 70% 的時間，平均回報為 5.20%。</p>
</div><p>So far, so familiar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前為止，這一切都很熟悉。</p>
</div><p>But the weakness is not where the saying suggests.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但弱勢並不在於這一説法所暗示的地方。</p>
</div><h3>S&amp;P 500 Seasonality (6-Month Periods)</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>標準普爾 500 指數季節性（六個月週期）</h3>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>6-month period</th>
<th>Avg Return</th>
<th>Median Return</th>
<th>% Time Up</th>
<th>Avg Drawdown</th>
<th>Median Drawdown</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Jan – Jun</td>
<td>3.85%</td>
<td>5.01%</td>
<td>65.3%</td>
<td>-7.60%</td>
<td>-5.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Feb – Jul</td>
<td>3.98%</td>
<td>4.56%</td>
<td>68.4%</td>
<td>-7.90%</td>
<td>-4.85%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mar – Aug</td>
<td>4.98%</td>
<td>4.94%</td>
<td>70.4%</td>
<td>-7.58%</td>
<td>-5.39%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Apr – Sep</td>
<td>3.54%</td>
<td>3.94%</td>
<td>66.3%</td>
<td>-7.79%</td>
<td>-4.29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>May – Oct</strong></td>
<td><strong>2.47%</strong></td>
<td><strong>3.35%</strong></td>
<td><strong>66.3%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-8.67%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-5.21%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jun – Nov</td>
<td>3.63%</td>
<td>4.58%</td>
<td>66.3%</td>
<td>-8.31%</td>
<td>-5.24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jul – Dec</td>
<td>4.25%</td>
<td>5.52%</td>
<td>68.4%</td>
<td>-8.28%</td>
<td>-4.93%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Aug – Jan</td>
<td>3.66%</td>
<td>4.95%</td>
<td>66.0%</td>
<td>-8.68%</td>
<td>-5.68%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sep – Feb</td>
<td>3.06%</td>
<td>5.00%</td>
<td>63.9%</td>
<td>-8.56%</td>
<td>-5.29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Oct – Mar</td>
<td>4.69%</td>
<td>5.92%</td>
<td>62.9%</td>
<td>-7.65%</td>
<td>-4.94%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Nov – Apr</strong></td>
<td><strong>5.20%</strong></td>
<td><strong>5.39%</strong></td>
<td><strong>70.1%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-6.76%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-4.11%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dec – May</td>
<td>4.29%</td>
<td>4.63%</td>
<td>66.0%</td>
<td>-7.28%</td>
<td>-4.60%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>六個月週期</th>
<th>平均回報</th>
<th>中位回報</th>
<th>上漲百分比</th>
<th>平均回撤</th>
<th>中位回撤</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>一月 – 六月</td>
<td>3.85%</td>
<td>5.01%</td>
<td>65.3%</td>
<td>-7.60%</td>
<td>-5.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>二月 – 七月</td>
<td>3.98%</td>
<td>4.56%</td>
<td>68.4%</td>
<td>-7.90%</td>
<td>-4.85%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>三月 – 八月</td>
<td>4.98%</td>
<td>4.94%</td>
<td>70.4%</td>
<td>-7.58%</td>
<td>-5.39%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>四月 – 九月</td>
<td>3.54%</td>
<td>3.94%</td>
<td>66.3%</td>
<td>-7.79%</td>
<td>-4.29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>五月 – 十月</strong></td>
<td><strong>2.47%</strong></td>
<td><strong>3.35%</strong></td>
<td><strong>66.3%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-8.67%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-5.21%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>六月 – 十一月</td>
<td>3.63%</td>
<td>4.58%</td>
<td>66.3%</td>
<td>-8.31%</td>
<td>-5.24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>七月 – 十二月</td>
<td>4.25%</td>
<td>5.52%</td>
<td>68.4%</td>
<td>-8.28%</td>
<td>-4.93%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>八月 – 一月</td>
<td>3.66%</td>
<td>4.95%</td>
<td>66.0%</td>
<td>-8.68%</td>
<td>-5.68%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>九月 – 二月</td>
<td>3.06%</td>
<td>5.00%</td>
<td>63.9%</td>
<td>-8.56%</td>
<td>-5.29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>十月 – 三月</td>
<td>4.69%</td>
<td>5.92%</td>
<td>62.9%</td>
<td>-7.65%</td>
<td>-4.94%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>十一月 – 四月</strong></td>
<td><strong>5.20%</strong></td>
<td><strong>5.39%</strong></td>
<td><strong>70.1%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-6.76%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-4.11%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>十二月 – 五月</td>
<td>4.29%</td>
<td>4.63%</td>
<td>66.0%</td>
<td>-7.28%</td>
<td>-4.60%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>When Ciana broke the period into three-month windows, the picture flipped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當西安納將週期分解為三個月窗口時，情況發生了翻轉。</p>
</div><p>June through August is actually the second-strongest three-month stretch of the year, returning 3.30% on average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>六月到八月實際上是全年第二強的三個月週期，平均回報為 3.30%。</p>
</div><p>The pain is back-loaded into August through October, which is the only three-month period since 1928 with a negative average return at -0.02%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>痛苦主要集中在八月到十月，這是自 1928 年以來唯一一個平均回報為負的三個月週期，回報為-0.02%。</p>
</div><p>“While May-Oct does have the lowest average 6-month return, it is back-end loaded to the Aug-Oct period,” Ciana said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“雖然五月到十月的平均六個月回報最低，但它的痛苦主要集中在八月到十月的時期，” 西安納説。</p>
</div><p>The expert indicated investors probably shouldn't follow the classic &#34;sell in May and go away&#34; playbook, adding that a better strategy may be “to sell in August and buy again by Halloween.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這位專家表示，投資者可能不應該遵循經典的 “五月賣出，離開市場” 策略，並補充説，更好的策略可能是 “在八月賣出，並在萬聖節前再次買入。”</p>
</div><h3>S&amp;P 500 Seasonality (3-Month Periods)</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>標準普爾 500 指數季節性（三個月週期）</h3>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>3-month period</th>
<th>Average return</th>
<th>Median return</th>
<th>% of time up</th>
<th>Average correction</th>
<th>Median correction</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Jan – Mar (1Q)</td>
<td>1.64%</td>
<td>2.10%</td>
<td>60.20%</td>
<td>-5.28%</td>
<td>-3.74%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Feb – Apr</td>
<td>1.50%</td>
<td>2.28%</td>
<td>67.35%</td>
<td>-5.51%</td>
<td>-3.87%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mar – May</td>
<td>2.02%</td>
<td>2.61%</td>
<td>61.22%</td>
<td>-5.64%</td>
<td>-2.97%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Apr – Jun (2Q)</td>
<td>2.38%</td>
<td>2.24%</td>
<td>60.20%</td>
<td>-5.34%</td>
<td>-3.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>May – Jul</td>
<td>2.46%</td>
<td>2.04%</td>
<td>64.29%</td>
<td>-5.35%</td>
<td>-2.97%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jun – Aug</td>
<td>3.30%</td>
<td>2.45%</td>
<td>65.31%</td>
<td>-5.08%</td>
<td>-3.36%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jul – Sep (3Q)</td>
<td>1.39%</td>
<td>2.91%</td>
<td>60.20%</td>
<td>-5.39%</td>
<td>-2.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Aug – Oct</strong></td>
<td><strong>-0.02%</strong></td>
<td><strong>0.90%</strong></td>
<td><strong>55.10%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-7.38%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-5.31%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sep – Nov</td>
<td>0.55%</td>
<td>2.45%</td>
<td>64.29%</td>
<td>-7.40%</td>
<td>-4.87%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Oct – Dec (4Q)</td>
<td>2.89%</td>
<td>4.63%</td>
<td>74.49%</td>
<td>-5.66%</td>
<td>-3.52%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nov – Jan</td>
<td>3.57%</td>
<td>4.17%</td>
<td>67.01%</td>
<td>-4.56%</td>
<td>-2.25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dec – Feb</td>
<td>2.45%</td>
<td>2.50%</td>
<td>62.89%</td>
<td>-4.58%</td>
<td>-3.63%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Averages</td>
<td>2.01%</td>
<td>2.49%</td>
<td>63.54%</td>
<td>-5.59%</td>
<td>-3.59</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>三個月週期</th>
<th>平均回報</th>
<th>中位回報</th>
<th>上漲百分比</th>
<th>平均回撤</th>
<th>中位回撤</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>一月 – 三月（第一季度）</td>
<td>1.64%</td>
<td>2.10%</td>
<td>60.20%</td>
<td>-5.28%</td>
<td>-3.74%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>二月 – 四月</td>
<td>1.50%</td>
<td>2.28%</td>
<td>67.35%</td>
<td>-5.51%</td>
<td>-3.87%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>三月 – 五月</td>
<td>2.02%</td>
<td>2.61%</td>
<td>61.22%</td>
<td>-5.64%</td>
<td>-2.97%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>四月 – 六月（第二季度）</td>
<td>2.38%</td>
<td>2.24%</td>
<td>60.20%</td>
<td>-5.34%</td>
<td>-3.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>五月 – 七月</td>
<td>2.46%</td>
<td>2.04%</td>
<td>64.29%</td>
<td>-5.35%</td>
<td>-2.97%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>六月 – 八月</td>
<td>3.30%</td>
<td>2.45%</td>
<td>65.31%</td>
<td>-5.08%</td>
<td>-3.36%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>七月 – 九月（第三季度）</td>
<td>1.39%</td>
<td>2.91%</td>
<td>60.20%</td>
<td>-5.39%</td>
<td>-2.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>八月 – 十月</strong></td>
<td><strong>-0.02%</strong></td>
<td><strong>0.90%</strong></td>
<td><strong>55.10%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-7.38%</strong></td>
<td><strong>-5.31%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>九月 – 十一月</td>
<td>0.55%</td>
<td>2.45%</td>
<td>64.29%</td>
<td>-7.40%</td>
<td>-4.87%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>十月 – 十二月（第四季度）</td>
<td>2.89%</td>
<td>4.63%</td>
<td>74.49%</td>
<td>-5.66%</td>
<td>-3.52%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>十一月 – 一月</td>
<td>3.57%</td>
<td>4.17%</td>
<td>67.01%</td>
<td>-4.56%</td>
<td>-2.25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>十二月 – 二月</td>
<td>2.45%</td>
<td>2.50%</td>
<td>62.89%</td>
<td>-4.58%</td>
<td>-3.63%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>平均值</td>
<td>2.01%</td>
<td>2.49%</td>
<td>63.54%</td>
<td>-5.59%</td>
<td>-3.59</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><h2>Why May Tends to Favor The Nasdaq 100 Specifically</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼五月特別有利於納斯達克 100 指數</h2>
</div><p>If there is a single trade that BofA’s seasonal heatmap flagged as the strongest in May, it is long the Nasdaq 100 – as tracked by the <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust</strong> (NASDAQ: QQQ).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果美國銀行的季節性熱圖中有一個交易被標記為五月最強，那就是做多納斯達克 100 指數——通過 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust</strong> 跟蹤的 (NASDAQ: QQQ)。</p>
</div><p>The index has averaged a +2.19% gain in May since 1986, rising 68% of the time — and the trend has been more pronounced since 2016.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 1986 年以來，該指數在五月的平均漲幅為 +2.19%，上漲 68% 的時間——這一趨勢自 2016 年以來更加明顯。</p>
</div><p>Ciana noted that even in 2018 — the second year of President <strong>Donald Trump</strong>‘s first term, a setup that historically drags equities — the NDX defied the pattern and rallied.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西安納指出，即使在 2018 年——<strong>唐納德·特朗普</strong> 總統第一任期的第二年，這一歷史上拖累股票的環境下，納斯達克 100 指數也違背了這一模式並上漲。</p>
</div><p>That matters now because 2026 is also Year 2 of the presidential cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這現在很重要，因為 2026 年也是總統週期的第二年。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>Earnings Volatility Watch: What To Expect From Sandisk and 5 Mag Seven Stocks This Week</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另請閲讀：</strong>
<strong>收益波動觀察：本週 Sandisk 和五大科技股的預期</strong></p>
</div><p><em>Photo: Pla2na/Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片來源：Pla2na/Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Wall Street Says 'Sell In May And Go Away': History Says Otherwise

- 美股 “五月賣出，六月休假” 的理論受到質疑。  
- 巴克萊最新數據顯示，六月份至八月份通常表現良好。  
- 投資者應考慮 “八月賣出，萬聖節再買入” 的策略。

benzinga_article

iShares NASDAQ 100 ETF USD Acc

美國銀行

標普 500 指數

閃迪

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NON CUM PFD QQ

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '5'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 7.25% NON-CUM PERP CONV PFD SER L

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.875%NON CUM DEP SHS REP1/1000TH SER HH

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '2'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5% DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD LL

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHARES REP 1/1000TH PERP PFD SER 'E'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION INCOME CAPITAL OBLIG NTS DUE 15/12/2066

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.375% DP SH RP 1/1000TH IN NON CU PF NN

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SH REP 1/1200TH PRF SER 1 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.375%DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM SR KK

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 6%NON CUM DEP SHS EACH REP 1/1000 SER GG

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200 PFD SER 4 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD SER SS

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.125%DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER PP USD25

Bank of America Corp

Sandisk - WI

華爾街有句俗語 “五月賣出然後離開”，但歷史數據卻顯示情況並非如此