<p>東京，4 月 28 日（路透社）- 日本銀行週二維持利率不變，但其九名董事會成員中有三人提議提高借貸成本，表明政策制定者對中東衝突帶來的通脹壓力的擔憂。</p>
<p>中央銀行還大幅上調了價格預測，並強調對通脹超標風險的警惕，暗示未來幾個月加息的可能性很大。</p>
<p>&#34;雖然日本銀行維持利率不變，但三票反對突顯了貨幣官員面臨的緊張局勢，&#34;滙豐銀行香港首席亞洲經濟學家 Fred Neumann 表示，並指出能源衝擊正在加劇通脹並抑制增長。</p>
<p>&#34;鑑於日本的通脹預期已處於高位，並因能源危機進一步上升，日本銀行將需要在適當的時候提高利率，以防止價格壓力進一步加大，&#34;他説。</p>
<p>正如廣泛預期的那樣，日本銀行在週二結束的為期兩天的會議上將短期政策利率維持在 0.75% 不變。</p>
<p>然而，出乎意料的是，三名銀行董事會成員表示反對，並呼籲將利率提高至 1.0%。田村直樹和中川順子加入了高田肇的行列，後者在三月份單獨提議加息未果。</p>
<p>這是自 2016 年 1 月以來董事會反對票數最多的一次，當時日本銀行以 5-4 的微弱票數通過了負利率政策。</p>
<p>&#34;鑑於潛在通脹接近 2%，而實際利率處於顯著低位，日本銀行將在經濟、價格和金融狀況的發展下繼續提高政策利率，&#34;日本銀行在季度報告中表示。</p>
<p>加息的速度和時機將密切關注中東衝突的後果，報告稱。</p>
<p>新的指導方針與之前的指導方針相比，後者明確指出經濟改善是進一步加息的前提條件之一。</p>
<p>政策公告後，日元上漲，日經股票指數下跌，因為投資者預計近期加息的可能性。</p>
<p>&#34;我預計下一次加息最早將在 6 月到來。隨着春季工資談判可能帶來與去年相當的工資增長，工資 - 價格循環指向未來更高的通脹，&#34;大和研究所經濟學家中村香奈子表示。&#34;儘管中東的不確定性仍然很高，但忽視上行價格壓力可能會加劇日元疲軟等副作用。&#34;</p>
<p>市場關注日本銀行行長上田和夫在 0630 GMT 的新聞發佈會上的評論，以獲取伊朗戰爭如何影響其加息路徑的線索。</p>
<p>與伊朗的美以戰爭使日本銀行逐步提高仍然較低的利率以達到市場認為的經濟中性水平（約 1.5%）的努力變得複雜。</p>
<p>日本銀行是本週眾多被認為維持政策不變的中央銀行中的第一個，包括美國聯邦儲備委員會，因為中東戰爭使經濟前景變得複雜。</p>
<p>通脹超標風險</p>
<p>在季度展望報告中，中央銀行大幅上調了截至 2027 年 3 月和 2028 年 3 月的核心通脹預測，同時下調了這兩年的增長預測。</p>
<p>日本銀行維持其預測，即潛在通脹將在 2026 財年下半年至 2027 年之間趨於與其價格目標一致的水平。</p>
<p>但它詳細説明了中東戰爭對增長和價格前景的風險，並補充説其基線情景是基於假設衝突不會導致巨大的供應鏈中斷或油價的長期飆升。</p>
<p>報告稱，隨着企業已經渴望將上漲的成本轉嫁，來自高油價的價格壓力可能比以往更廣泛地傳播到各種商品和服務中。</p>
<p>&#34;日本銀行必須特別關注通脹急劇上升的風險，從而對經濟產生不利影響，&#34;報告稱。</p>
<p>日本對石油進口的高度依賴使其經濟容易受到油價飆升和霍爾木茲海峽有效關閉帶來的供應中斷的影響。</p>
<p>但隨着企業愈發渴望將包括日元持續疲軟在內的更高成本轉嫁，忽視戰爭驅動的價格壓力的風險增加，導致通脹在過去四年中保持在日本銀行 2% 的目標之上。</p>
<p>日本銀行加息的緩慢步伐對日元造成了壓力，使其保持在 160 日元兑美元的水平，這一水平曾觸發過貨幣干預。</p>
<p>財政部長片山紗月週二表示，政府已準備好採取行動應對外匯波動，重申東京在市場上干預以應對日元過度貶值的決心。</p>
<p>路透社調查的近三分之二的經濟學家預計，日本銀行將在 6 月底前將基準利率提高至 1.0%。</p>
<p>（報道：木原禮香和山崎真紀；東京的杉山聰和小宮侃太郎以及新加坡的安庫爾·班納吉的補充報道；編輯：山姆·霍爾姆斯）</p>

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<p>日本銀行（BOJ）維持利率在 0.75% 不變，但有三位董事會成員提議將利率提高至 1.0%，這表明對中東衝突引發的通脹擔憂。日本銀行上調了通脹預測，並警告可能出現通脹超標的風險。經濟學家預計，隨着通脹預期和工資上漲，最早將在 6 月加息。公告發布後，日元上漲，而日經指數下跌。日本銀行的謹慎態度受到持續的地緣政治緊張局勢及其對經濟狀況影響的影響</p>

<p>TOKYO, April 28 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady on Tuesday but three of its nine-member board proposed hiking borrowing costs, signalling policymakers' concerns over inflationary pressures from the Middle East conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>東京，4 月 28 日（路透社）- 日本銀行週二維持利率不變，但其九名董事會成員中有三人提議提高借貸成本，表明政策制定者對中東衝突帶來的通脹壓力的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>The central bank also sharply revised up its price forecasts and stressed vigilance to the risk of an inflation overshoot, signalling a strong chance of a rate hike in coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中央銀行還大幅上調了價格預測，並強調對通脹超標風險的警惕，暗示未來幾個月加息的可能性很大。</p>
</div><p>&#34;While the BOJ kept rates on hold, the three dissenting votes highlight the tensions monetary officials face,&#34; Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC in Hong Kong, said, noting energy shocks were fanning inflation and curtailing growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;雖然日本銀行維持利率不變，但三票反對突顯了貨幣官員面臨的緊張局勢，&#34;滙豐銀行香港首席亞洲經濟學家 Fred Neumann 表示，並指出能源衝擊正在加劇通脹並抑制增長。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Given elevated inflation expectations in Japan, which have increased further due to the energy crisis, the BOJ will need to raise interest rates in due course to prevent price pressures from building further,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;鑑於日本的通脹預期已處於高位，並因能源危機進一步上升，日本銀行將需要在適當的時候提高利率，以防止價格壓力進一步加大，&#34;他説。</p>
</div><p>As widely expected, the BOJ left unchanged its short-term policy rate at 0.75% in a two-day meeting that ended on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如廣泛預期的那樣，日本銀行在週二結束的為期兩天的會議上將短期政策利率維持在 0.75% 不變。</p>
</div><p>In a surprise move, however, three bank board members dissented and instead called for a rate hike to 1.0%. Naoki Tamura and Junko Nakagawa joined Hajime Takata, who unsuccessfully made a solo proposal to hike in March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，出乎意料的是，三名銀行董事會成員表示反對，並呼籲將利率提高至 1.0%。田村直樹和中川順子加入了高田肇的行列，後者在三月份單獨提議加息未果。</p>
</div><p>It was the biggest number of dissents the board has seen since January 2016, when the BOJ adopted negative interest rates by a narrow 5-4 vote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是自 2016 年 1 月以來董事會反對票數最多的一次，當時日本銀行以 5-4 的微弱票數通過了負利率政策。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Given that underlying inflation has been approaching 2% and real interest rates are at significantly low levels, the BOJ will continue to raise its policy rate in response to developments in the economy, prices and financial conditions,&#34; the BOJ said in a quarterly report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;鑑於潛在通脹接近 2%，而實際利率處於顯著低位，日本銀行將在經濟、價格和金融狀況的發展下繼續提高政策利率，&#34;日本銀行在季度報告中表示。</p>
</div><p>The pace and timing of rate hikes will be determined with a close eye on the fallout from the Middle East conflict, it said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加息的速度和時機將密切關注中東衝突的後果，報告稱。</p>
</div><p>The new guidance compared with the previous one that spelled out improvements in the economy as among prerequisites for further rate hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新的指導方針與之前的指導方針相比，後者明確指出經濟改善是進一步加息的前提條件之一。</p>
</div><p>The yen rose and the Nikkei stock average fell after the policy announcement, as investors priced in the chance of a near-term rate hike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策公告後，日元上漲，日經股票指數下跌，因為投資者預計近期加息的可能性。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I expect the next rate hike to come as early as June. With spring wage talks likely to deliver pay rises on par with last year, the wage-price cycle points to higher inflation ahead,&#34; said Kanako Nakamura, economist at Daiwa Institute of Research. &#34;While uncertainty over the Middle East remains high, ignoring upward price pressures could exacerbate side effects such as yen weakness.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我預計下一次加息最早將在 6 月到來。隨着春季工資談判可能帶來與去年相當的工資增長，工資 - 價格循環指向未來更高的通脹，&#34;大和研究所經濟學家中村香奈子表示。&#34;儘管中東的不確定性仍然很高，但忽視上行價格壓力可能會加劇日元疲軟等副作用。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Markets are focusing on comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda at a press conference at 0630 GMT for clues on how the protracted Iran war affects its rate-hike path.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場關注日本銀行行長上田和夫在 0630 GMT 的新聞發佈會上的評論，以獲取伊朗戰爭如何影響其加息路徑的線索。</p>
</div><p>The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has complicated the BOJ's efforts to raise still-low interest rates gradually to levels deemed neutral to the economy, seen by markets at around 1.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與伊朗的美以戰爭使日本銀行逐步提高仍然較低的利率以達到市場認為的經濟中性水平（約 1.5%）的努力變得複雜。</p>
</div><p>The BOJ is the first among a flurry of central banks seen keeping policy steady this week, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, as the Middle East war muddles the economic outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本銀行是本週眾多被認為維持政策不變的中央銀行中的第一個，包括美國聯邦儲備委員會，因為中東戰爭使經濟前景變得複雜。</p>
</div><p>INFLATION OVERSHOOT RISK</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通脹超標風險</p>
</div><p>In a quarterly outlook report, the central bank sharply revised up its core inflation forecasts for the fiscal years ending March 2027 and March 2028, while slashing its growth forecasts for both years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在季度展望報告中，中央銀行大幅上調了截至 2027 年 3 月和 2028 年 3 月的核心通脹預測，同時下調了這兩年的增長預測。</p>
</div><p>The BOJ maintained its projection that underlying inflation will converge to levels consistent with its price target sometime between the latter half of fiscal 2026 through 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本銀行維持其預測，即潛在通脹將在 2026 財年下半年至 2027 年之間趨於與其價格目標一致的水平。</p>
</div><p>But it elaborated on risks to the growth and price outlook from the Middle East war, adding that its baseline scenario was based on the assumption the conflict will not lead to huge supply chain disruptions or a prolonged spike in oil costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但它詳細説明了中東戰爭對增長和價格前景的風險，並補充説其基線情景是基於假設衝突不會導致巨大的供應鏈中斷或油價的長期飆升。</p>
</div><p>With companies already keen to pass on rising costs, price pressures from high oil prices could spread to various goods and services more than they have in the past, the report said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告稱，隨着企業已經渴望將上漲的成本轉嫁，來自高油價的價格壓力可能比以往更廣泛地傳播到各種商品和服務中。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The BOJ must pay particularly strong attention to the risk of inflation deviating sharply upward and thereby exerting an adverse impact on the economy,&#34; it said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;日本銀行必須特別關注通脹急劇上升的風險，從而對經濟產生不利影響，&#34;報告稱。</p>
</div><p>Japan's heavy reliance on oil imports makes its economy vulnerable to surging oil prices and supply disruptions from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本對石油進口的高度依賴使其經濟容易受到油價飆升和霍爾木茲海峽有效關閉帶來的供應中斷的影響。</p>
</div><p>But the risks of looking through war-driven price pressures have increased as firms become keener to pass on higher costs including from a stubbornly weak yen, keeping inflation above the BOJ's 2% target for four years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但隨着企業愈發渴望將包括日元持續疲軟在內的更高成本轉嫁，忽視戰爭驅動的價格壓力的風險增加，導致通脹在過去四年中保持在日本銀行 2% 的目標之上。</p>
</div><p>The slow pace of BOJ rate hikes has weighed on the yen and kept it near the 160-per-dollar level that had triggered currency intervention in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本銀行加息的緩慢步伐對日元造成了壓力，使其保持在 160 日元兑美元的水平，這一水平曾觸發過貨幣干預。</p>
</div><p>Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday the government was ready to take action against foreign exchange volatility, reiterating Tokyo's resolve to intervene in the market to counter excessive yen falls.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>財政部長片山紗月週二表示，政府已準備好採取行動應對外匯波動，重申東京在市場上干預以應對日元過度貶值的決心。</p>
</div><p>Nearly two-thirds of economists polled by Reuters expect the BOJ to raise its benchmark rate to 1.0% by end-June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>路透社調查的近三分之二的經濟學家預計，日本銀行將在 6 月底前將基準利率提高至 1.0%。</p>
</div><p>(Reporting by Leika Kihara and Makiko Yamazaki; additional reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama and Kantaro Komiya in Tokyo and Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Sam Holmes)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（報道：木原禮香和山崎真紀；東京的杉山聰和小宮侃太郎以及新加坡的安庫爾·班納吉的補充報道；編輯：山姆·霍爾姆斯）</p>
</div>

BOJ keeps rates steady but hawkish split points to June hike

- 日本銀行維持利率不變，但三名董事會成員提議加息至 1.0%。  
- 報告顯示中東衝突加劇通脹風險，影響經濟增長預期。  
- 預計日本銀行將在 6 月底前提高基準利率，以應對通脹上升。

日本央行維持利率不變，但鷹派的分歧暗示可能在六月加息