<p>墨西哥比索在本週開始時表現出適度的疲軟，這在最近的美元/比索價格走勢中得到了反映，該貨幣對在過去兩個交易日中上漲了超過 0.3%，利好美元。</p>
<p>目前，開始出現的 <strong>買入壓力</strong> 主要是由市場對墨西哥和美國貨幣政策決策的預期驅動。這些事件引入了一定程度的不確定性，限制了比索持續走強的能力。</p>
<p>在這種情況下，如果美聯儲保持更為嚴格的語氣或加強利率穩定的預期，這可能會繼續支持美元，並進一步加大對美元/比索的 <strong>上行壓力</strong>。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h2><strong>中央銀行動態</strong></h2>
<p>在墨西哥方面，值得強調的是，4 月上半月的整體通脹率為 4.53%，與 3 月的 4.55% 相比略有放緩，符合市場預期。</p>
<p>雖然這並不代表通脹的結構性下降，但確實表明了 <strong>價格動態的穩定</strong>，減少了維持高度限制性貨幣政策的緊迫性。</p>
<p>事實上，墨西哥銀行已經開始了降息週期，在最新的決策中將利率從 7.00% 下調至 6.75%。在即將到來的 5 月 7 日會議上，基本情況指向暫停，儘管如果通脹繼續穩定，向 6.50% 水平的進一步降息也不能排除。</p>
<p>這表明，中央銀行可能會在未來幾個月轉向 <strong>更靈活的貨幣政策</strong>，而不是維持激進的立場。</p>
<p>在美國方面，情況有所不同。市場已經開始鞏固對 <strong>長期利率穩定</strong> 的預期。</p>
<p>對於下一個決策（4 月 29 日），概率幾乎完全指向美聯儲將利率維持在 3.75% 不變。更重要的是，市場預測表明，這一動態可能會持續到 2027 年，未來幾個季度幾乎沒有變化的可能性。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/CMEGROUP0428.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="560" height="479" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/CMEGROUP0428.png"/></p>
<p><em>來源：CMEGROUP</em></p>
<p>這進一步強化了美國貨幣政策將在更長時間內保持限制性的觀點，限制了短期內美元持續貶值的空間。</p>
<p>此時，<strong>利率差異</strong> 再次成為關鍵因素。在 2025 年的大部分時間裏，這一差異有利於墨西哥比索，因為它提供了更高的相對收益。然而，這一動態可能因兩個主要原因開始發生變化：</p>
<p>首先，如果美聯儲保持堅定立場，美元可能會重新獲得吸引力，受到未來幾個月利率穩定預期的支持，這可能會重新激發對美元計價資產的興趣。</p>
<p>其次，如果墨西哥銀行繼續降息，利差將縮小，可能會降低比索計價投資的吸引力。</p>
<p>在這兩種情況下，結果可能是對比索計價資產的 <strong>需求下降</strong>，為美元的進一步走強和美元/比索的更一致的上行壓力打開了大門。</p>
<h2><strong>美元/比索的技術展望</strong></h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDMXN_2026-04-28_10-44-21.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1538" height="917" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDMXN_2026-04-28_10-44-21.png"/></p>
<p><em>來源：StoneX, Tradingview</em></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>主要看跌通道承壓：</strong> 儘管美元/比索在幾個月內保持了看跌結構，但最近的價格回升使其接近通道的上邊界。這是一個關鍵區域，因為持續的上漲可能會觸發突破，挑戰主導的看跌結構，併為短期內 <strong>轉向看漲偏向</strong> 打開大門。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>相對強弱指數（RSI）：</strong> RSI 指標仍略低於 50 水平，但已開始顯示出 <strong>持續的上升趨勢</strong>，這表明短期內賣壓正在減弱。如果這一趨勢持續，指標可能會進入正區域，強化轉向更強買入動能的理由。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>移動平均收斂發散指標（MACD）：</strong> MACD 支持這一觀點，因為直方圖顯示出穩定的回升，目前接近零線。進入正區域將表明 <strong>市場動能的轉變</strong>，支持短期移動平均線的更強看漲偏向。</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>關鍵水平：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>18.07 – 關鍵阻力：</strong> 與 200 期移動平均線和 23.6% 斐波那契回撤水平對齊的近期高點區域。這代表了短期內最重要的阻力。持續突破可能確認結構性轉變，併為未來幾周的更明確的上升趨勢打開大門。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>17.56 – 當前障礙：</strong> 與下降趨勢線和 50 期移動平均線對齊的水平。這是一個關鍵區域，因為明確突破可能會使看跌結構失效，並在短期內增強 <strong>更一致的買入壓力</strong>。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>17.10 – 關鍵支撐：</strong> 2026 年低點區域。回落至該水平可能會恢復看跌動能，並確認下降通道的延續，保持更廣泛的下行趨勢在未來幾天內不變。</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>撰寫者：Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – 市場分析師</strong></p>
<p><strong>關注他：</strong> <strong>@julianpineda25</strong></p>

彭博美元指數 做多 - WisdomTree

德銀美元指數 做多 - PowerShares

墨西哥 3 倍做多 MSCI ETF - Direxion

<p>墨西哥比索對美元顯示出疲軟跡象，USD/MXN 貨幣對上漲超過 0.3%。這受到市場對墨西哥和美國貨幣政策預期的影響。墨西哥銀行已開始降息週期，而美聯儲預計將維持利率穩定。利率差可能發生變化，可能會減少對以比索計價資產的需求。技術指標暗示 USD/MXN 可能轉向看漲偏向，關鍵阻力位在 18.07，支撐位在 17.10</p>

<p>The Mexican peso has started the week showing moderate weakness, reflected in recent USD/MXN price action, where the pair has posted a gain of more than 0.3% over the last two sessions in favor of the US dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨西哥比索在本週開始時表現出適度的疲軟，這在最近的美元/比索價格走勢中得到了反映，該貨幣對在過去兩個交易日中上漲了超過 0.3%，利好美元。</p>
</div><p>For now, the <strong>buying pressure</strong> that has begun to emerge is mainly driven by market expectations surrounding monetary policy decisions in both Mexico and the United States. These events have introduced a degree of uncertainty, limiting the peso’s ability to strengthen consistently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，開始出現的 <strong>買入壓力</strong> 主要是由市場對墨西哥和美國貨幣政策決策的預期驅動。這些事件引入了一定程度的不確定性，限制了比索持續走強的能力。</p>
</div><p>In this context, if the Federal Reserve maintains a more restrictive tone or reinforces expectations of rate stability, this could continue to support the dollar and, in turn, intensify the <strong>upside pressure on USD/MXN</strong> in the coming sessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種情況下，如果美聯儲保持更為嚴格的語氣或加強利率穩定的預期，這可能會繼續支持美元，並進一步加大對美元/比索的 <strong>上行壓力</strong>。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h2><strong>Central bank dynamics</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>中央銀行動態</strong></h2>
</div><p>On Mexico’s side, it is important to highlight that headline inflation for the first half of April came in at 4.53% year-over-year, showing a slight slowdown compared to the 4.55% recorded in March and in line with market expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在墨西哥方面，值得強調的是，4 月上半月的整體通脹率為 4.53%，與 3 月的 4.55% 相比略有放緩，符合市場預期。</p>
</div><p>While this does not represent a structural decline in inflation, it does suggest a <strong>stabilization in price dynamics</strong>, reducing the urgency to maintain a highly restrictive monetary policy stance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然這並不代表通脹的結構性下降，但確實表明了 <strong>價格動態的穩定</strong>，減少了維持高度限制性貨幣政策的緊迫性。</p>
</div><p>In fact, Banco de México has already begun a rate-cutting cycle, lowering rates from 7.00% to 6.75% in its latest decision. For the upcoming May 7 meeting, the base case points to a pause, although another cut toward the 6.50% level cannot be ruled out if inflation continues to stabilize.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，墨西哥銀行已經開始了降息週期，在最新的決策中將利率從 7.00% 下調至 6.75%。在即將到來的 5 月 7 日會議上，基本情況指向暫停，儘管如果通脹繼續穩定，向 6.50% 水平的進一步降息也不能排除。</p>
</div><p>This suggests that, rather than maintaining an aggressive stance, the central bank could shift toward a <strong>more flexible monetary policy</strong> in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這表明，中央銀行可能會在未來幾個月轉向 <strong>更靈活的貨幣政策</strong>，而不是維持激進的立場。</p>
</div><p>On the US side, the picture is different. The market has started to consolidate expectations of <strong>prolonged rate stability</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美國方面，情況有所不同。市場已經開始鞏固對 <strong>長期利率穩定</strong> 的預期。</p>
</div><p>For the next decision (april 29), probabilities point almost entirely to the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged at 3.75%. More importantly, market projections suggest that this dynamic could extend well into 2027, with meaningful probabilities of no changes in the coming quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於下一個決策（4 月 29 日），概率幾乎完全指向美聯儲將利率維持在 3.75% 不變。更重要的是，市場預測表明，這一動態可能會持續到 2027 年，未來幾個季度幾乎沒有變化的可能性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/CMEGROUP0428.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/CMEGROUP0428.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CMEGROUP</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：CMEGROUP</em></p>
</div><p>This reinforces the view that US monetary policy will remain restrictive for longer, limiting the scope for a sustained dollar depreciation in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這進一步強化了美國貨幣政策將在更長時間內保持限制性的觀點，限制了短期內美元持續貶值的空間。</p>
</div><p>At this point, the <strong>interest rate differential</strong> once again becomes a key factor. For much of 2025, this differential favored the Mexican peso, as it offered a higher relative yield. However, this dynamic may begin to shift for two main reasons:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此時，<strong>利率差異</strong> 再次成為關鍵因素。在 2025 年的大部分時間裏，這一差異有利於墨西哥比索，因為它提供了更高的相對收益。然而，這一動態可能因兩個主要原因開始發生變化：</p>
</div><p>First, if the Federal Reserve maintains a firm stance, the dollar could regain attractiveness, supported by expectations of stable rates in the coming months, which could renew interest in USD-denominated assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，如果美聯儲保持堅定立場，美元可能會重新獲得吸引力，受到未來幾個月利率穩定預期的支持，這可能會重新激發對美元計價資產的興趣。</p>
</div><p>Second, if Banco de México continues to cut rates, the differential will narrow, potentially reducing the attractiveness of peso-denominated investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，如果墨西哥銀行繼續降息，利差將縮小，可能會降低比索計價投資的吸引力。</p>
</div><p>In both cases, the outcome could be a <strong>decline in demand for peso-denominated assets</strong>, opening the door for further dollar strength and more consistent upside pressure in USD/MXN.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這兩種情況下，結果可能是對比索計價資產的 <strong>需求下降</strong>，為美元的進一步走強和美元/比索的更一致的上行壓力打開了大門。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Technical outlook for USD/MXN</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>美元/比索的技術展望</strong></h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDMXN_2026-04-28_10-44-21.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDMXN_2026-04-28_10-44-21.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: StoneX, Tradingview</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：StoneX, Tradingview</em></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Major bearish channel under pressure:</strong> Although USD/MXN has maintained a bearish structure for several months, the recent price recovery has brought it closer to the upper boundary of the channel. This is a key area, as a sustained move higher could trigger a breakout that challenges the dominant bearish structure and opens the door to a <strong>shift toward a bullish bias</strong> in the short term.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>主要看跌通道承壓：</strong> 儘管美元/比索在幾個月內保持了看跌結構，但最近的價格回升使其接近通道的上邊界。這是一個關鍵區域，因為持續的上漲可能會觸發突破，挑戰主導的看跌結構，併為短期內 <strong>轉向看漲偏向</strong> 打開大門。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>RSI:</strong> The RSI indicator remains slightly below the 50 level but has begun to show a <strong>consistent upward slope</strong>, suggesting that selling pressure is losing momentum in the short term. If this trend continues, the indicator could move into positive territory, reinforcing the case for a shift toward stronger buying momentum.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>相對強弱指數（RSI）：</strong> RSI 指標仍略低於 50 水平，但已開始顯示出 <strong>持續的上升趨勢</strong>，這表明短期內賣壓正在減弱。如果這一趨勢持續，指標可能會進入正區域，強化轉向更強買入動能的理由。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>MACD:</strong> The MACD supports this view, as the histogram has shown a steady recovery and is now close to the zero line. A move into positive territory would indicate a <strong>shift in market momentum</strong>, supporting a stronger bullish bias in short-term moving averages.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>移動平均收斂發散指標（MACD）：</strong> MACD 支持這一觀點，因為直方圖顯示出穩定的回升，目前接近零線。進入正區域將表明 <strong>市場動能的轉變</strong>，支持短期移動平均線的更強看漲偏向。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Key levels:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>關鍵水平：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>18.07 – Key resistance:</strong> A zone of recent highs aligned with the 200-period moving average and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This represents the most important resistance in the short term. A sustained break above it could confirm a structural shift and open the door to a more defined uptrend in the coming weeks.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>18.07 – 關鍵阻力：</strong> 與 200 期移動平均線和 23.6% 斐波那契回撤水平對齊的近期高點區域。這代表了短期內最重要的阻力。持續突破可能確認結構性轉變，併為未來幾周的更明確的上升趨勢打開大門。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>17.56 – Current barrier:</strong> A level aligned with the descending trendline and the 50-period moving average. This is a critical area, as a clear break could invalidate the bearish structure and reinforce <strong>more consistent buying pressure</strong> in the short term.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>17.56 – 當前障礙：</strong> 與下降趨勢線和 50 期移動平均線對齊的水平。這是一個關鍵區域，因為明確突破可能會使看跌結構失效，並在短期內增強 <strong>更一致的買入壓力</strong>。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>17.10 – Key support:</strong> A zone of 2026 lows. A move back toward this level could restore bearish momentum and confirm the continuation of the descending channel, keeping the broader downtrend intact in the coming sessions.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>17.10 – 關鍵支撐：</strong> 2026 年低點區域。回落至該水平可能會恢復看跌動能，並確認下降通道的延續，保持更廣泛的下行趨勢在未來幾天內不變。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>撰寫者：Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – 市場分析師</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Follow him on:</strong> <strong>@julianpineda25</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>關注他：</strong> <strong>@julianpineda25</strong></p>
</div>

美元/墨西哥比索預測：在美聯儲決議前，墨西哥比索顯示出疲軟的跡象