<div id="readability-page-1">  <p><time datetime="2026-04-30T12:04:58+01:00">    Thursday 30 April 2026 12:04 pm  </time>      <span> | </span><span> Updated: </span>   <time datetime="2026-04-30T12:05:13+01:00">    Thursday 30 April 2026 12:05 pm  </time></p>         <div>    <div>             <div>             <p>            <span>        Politics and Economics Reporter      </span>                </p>          </div>  </div>                                                                                                             Add as a preferred        source on Google                        </div>    <figure>    <div>       </div> <img width="742" height="495" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/01JDVVD0N5147SW88N3G465P3B-e1738165980509.jpg/query-dz03NDI?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/01JDVVD0N5147SW88N3G465P3B-e1738165980509.jpg/query-dz03NDI"/>  <figcaption>Governor Andrew Bailey voted for interest rates to be held. </figcaption> </figure> <p>The Bank of England has all but confirmed that interest rates will be hiked in the coming months as oil prices have shot up, despite opting to hold them in a meeting on Thursday. </p><p>The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee warned interest rates could climb back to 5.25 per cent from the current level of 3.75 per cent, cancelling all six interest rate cuts seen over the last two years. </p><p>This sharp change in the direction of interest rates would take place in a scenario where oil prices exceed $130 per barrel and sustain high levels for the next year and a half. </p><p>Its updated forecasts suggested inflation would exceed six per cent while growth would also suffer a hit. </p><p>Policymakers voted 8-1 to keep interest rates at 3.75 per cent in an approach that suggests tightened financial markets, as per higher bond curves, has already given the MPC a lifeline on easing inflation. </p><p>The report said: “Tighter financial conditions would provide insurance against a more adverse outocme for inflation, while further evidence accumulated in the coming months and policy could be re-assessed.”</p><p>The Bank’s chief economist Huw Pill voted for interest rates to be hiked as the risks of second-round effects, where higher prices push up wages and vice-versa, could lead t inflation spiralling. He said a prompt hike to interest rates would “help mitigate upsdie risks to price stability”. </p><p>External member Catherine Mann said her vote to hold interest rates was “active” as financial market moves allowed her to wait to see further data.</p><p>Under a medium-risk scenario where oil and gas prices push up infaltion for the next two years, interest rates could still be hiked twice to 4.25 per cent. The best scenario where oil prices rapidly slide could also lead to an interest rate hike this year, according to forecasts in the report. </p><p>Most members said they leant towards the middle scenario where inflation only falls back to the target of two per cent until 2028. </p><h2 id="h-interest-rate-warning-to-stun-economists">Interest rate warning to stun economists</h2><p>Governor Andrew Bailey said the war was “causing inflation to rise again” as he defended the Bank’s decision to hold interest rates at 3.75 per cent. </p><p>“We think this is a reasonable place given the situation of the economy and the unpredictability of events in the Middle East. We’ll continue to monitor the situation and its impact on the UK economy very closely. </p><p>“Whatever happens, our job is to make sure that inflation gets back to the two per cent target after the initial impact of the war on energy prices has passed.”</p><p>In even the most benign scenario where oil and gas prices fall back rapidly to pre-war levels in the coming months, unemployment will rise to 5.45 per cent. It would mean that around 2m people would be left jobless. </p><p>The Bank’s growth projectiosn were revised down slightly from 0.9 per cent to a range between 0.8 and 0.7 per cent in the Bank’s report although the assumptions were based on interest rates remaining at 3.75 per cent. </p><p>As inflation rose to 3.3 per cent in the year to March, Bailey was forced to write to Chancellor Rachel Reeves explaining why price growth had surged. </p><p>He said there had been “a significant impact” on the supply of key goods including oil and gas.</p> </div>

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<p>英國央行表示，儘管在最近的會議上將利率維持在 3.75%，但未來幾個月可能會加息。貨幣政策委員會警告稱，如果油價超過每桶 130 美元，利率可能會上升至 5.25%。預計通脹將超過 6%，而經濟增長預計將下降。行長安德魯·貝利強調需要關注能源價格上漲對經濟的影響，而首席經濟學家則建議迅速加息可能有助於緩解通脹風險。失業率在不同情景下也預計將上升至 5.45%</p>

Bank of England signals interest rate hikes ahead despite April hold

- 英國銀行維持利率在 3.75% 不變，但預計將於未來幾個月加息。  
- 主要因油價飆升，預測通脹將超過 6%。  
- 若油價持續高位，利率或升至 5.25%。

儘管英格蘭銀行在四月維持利率不變，但仍暗示未來將加息