<p>中國的奢侈品市場正在復甦，奢侈品牌的業績顯示出對奢侈品需求和情緒穩定的趨勢，傑富瑞最近的一份報告中指出。在報告中，分析師討論了短期情緒驅動因素和原材料價格衝擊的潛在影響，並確定了一隻 “具備結構性增長潛力” 的股票。傑富瑞將貴州茅台（600519）的股票視為 “具備結構性增長潛力”。該股票也被認為是中國奢侈消費的良好代表。傑富瑞對茅台股票的評級為買入，目標價為人民幣 1,458.49 元。根據該公司的調查，茅台在過去四到六個月的零售銷售中出現了強勁反彈，零售銷售同比基本上再次轉為正增長。原材料價格衝擊不太可能對公司的利潤率造成問題。分析師表示：“與其他主食和酒類公司不同，我們認為茅台的高利潤率使其免受原材料成本衝擊的影響。此外，公用事業和運輸成本對茅台的利潤率影響微乎其微。我們不認為石油短缺會對茅台的生產構成風險。” 預計該公司將在主要高端白酒價格區間（每瓶人民幣 1,000 元以上、600-1,000 元、400-600 元）加速市場份額的增長。促成這一發展的因素有兩個方面：線上與線下的整合，以及經銷商激勵。關於線上與線下的整合，分析師表示，公司對飛天價格的更大控制防止了線上線下的轉售活動。這使得它能夠更好地利用線上渠道，享受來自電商平台的流量和補貼。關於經銷商激勵，分析師指出，儘管茅台推動直銷，但經銷商仍然受到鼓勵。茅台 1935 和茅台王子的產品改造已被證明成功，使經銷商能夠從新的收益來源中受益，而之前他們僅依賴飛天。這鼓勵經銷商推廣茅台的全系列產品。分析師補充道，茅台所享有的積極經銷商情緒和利潤率在當今的白酒行業中是罕見的。這預計將幫助茅台獲取市場份額。該公司是中國超高端酒市場的主導者，擁有最強的品牌價值。茅台的渠道策略將市場迴歸大型經銷商，預計飛天的價格將得到穩定。該公司預測未來三年中到高個位數的銷量增長，而價格上漲和產品組合變化被視為銷售增長的關鍵驅動因素。</p>

貴州茅台

<p>Jefferies 分析師報告稱，貴州茅台（600519）在中國復甦的奢侈品市場中具備良好的結構性增長潛力。該股票評級為買入，目標價為人民幣 1,458.49。茅台的零售銷售已出現反彈，其高利潤率使其能夠抵禦原材料價格波動。預計公司將通過線上線下整合和經銷商激勵措施在高端白酒市場中獲得市場份額。分析師預測未來三年將實現中高個位數的銷量增長，主要受價格上漲和產品組合變化的推動</p>

<p>The luxury market in China is recovering, with luxury brands’ results showing a trend of stabilising demand and sentiment for luxury goods, says a recent note from Jefferies. In the note, firm analysts discuss the potential impacts of near-term sentiment drivers and raw material price shocks, and also identify a stock “positioned for structural growth.” Jefferies identifies distillery company Kweichow Moutai’s (600519) shares as “positioned for structural growth.” The stock is also seen by the firm as a good proxy of China luxury consumption.Kweichow Moutai stock is rated Buy at the firm with a price target of RMB 1,458.49.Moutai has seen a strong rebound in retail sales over the last four to six months, and retail sales have largely become positive YOY again, according to the firm’s checks.Raw-material price shocks are unlikely to pose a problem for the company’s margins.“Unlike other staple and alcohol companies, we believe Moutai’s high margins make it immune to raw-material cost shocks. In addition, utilities and transportation costs appear insignificant to Moutai’s margins. We do not see oil shortage as a risk to Moutai’s production,” the analysts said.The company is expected to accelerate its market share gain in major premium baijiu price ranges (above RMB 1,000 per bottle, 600-1,000, 400-600). The factors contributing to this development are two-fold: on-line and off-line integration, and distributor incentives.Discussing on-line and off-line integration, firm analysts said that the company’s greater control over Feitian prices has prevented on-line off-line resell activities. This is what allows it to make better use of the on-line channel, where it can enjoy both traffic as well as subsidies from e-commerce platforms.Regarding distributor incentives, the analysts note that distributors remain encouraged despite Moutai’s DTC push. The Moutai 1935 and Moutai Prince product overhauls have been proven successful, allowing distributors to benefit from a new source of earnings, whereas previously they relied on Feitian only.This is encouraging distributors to promote Moutai’s full range of products.The positive distributor sentiment and margins enjoyed by Moutai are rare in today’s baijiu industry, the analysts added. This is expected to help Moutai capture market share.The company is the dominant player in China’s super-premium liquor market, and it has the strongest brand equity. The prices of Feitian will likely be stabilised by Moutai’s channel strategy of giving the market back to large distributors.The firm is forecasting mid-to-high-single-digit volume growth for the next three years, while price hikes and product mix changes are seen as key drivers of sales growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國的奢侈品市場正在復甦，奢侈品牌的業績顯示出對奢侈品需求和情緒穩定的趨勢，傑富瑞最近的一份報告中指出。在報告中，分析師討論了短期情緒驅動因素和原材料價格衝擊的潛在影響，並確定了一隻 “具備結構性增長潛力” 的股票。傑富瑞將貴州茅台（600519）的股票視為 “具備結構性增長潛力”。該股票也被認為是中國奢侈消費的良好代表。傑富瑞對茅台股票的評級為買入，目標價為人民幣 1,458.49 元。根據該公司的調查，茅台在過去四到六個月的零售銷售中出現了強勁反彈，零售銷售同比基本上再次轉為正增長。原材料價格衝擊不太可能對公司的利潤率造成問題。分析師表示：“與其他主食和酒類公司不同，我們認為茅台的高利潤率使其免受原材料成本衝擊的影響。此外，公用事業和運輸成本對茅台的利潤率影響微乎其微。我們不認為石油短缺會對茅台的生產構成風險。” 預計該公司將在主要高端白酒價格區間（每瓶人民幣 1,000 元以上、600-1,000 元、400-600 元）加速市場份額的增長。促成這一發展的因素有兩個方面：線上與線下的整合，以及經銷商激勵。關於線上與線下的整合，分析師表示，公司對飛天價格的更大控制防止了線上線下的轉售活動。這使得它能夠更好地利用線上渠道，享受來自電商平台的流量和補貼。關於經銷商激勵，分析師指出，儘管茅台推動直銷，但經銷商仍然受到鼓勵。茅台 1935 和茅台王子的產品改造已被證明成功，使經銷商能夠從新的收益來源中受益，而之前他們僅依賴飛天。這鼓勵經銷商推廣茅台的全系列產品。分析師補充道，茅台所享有的積極經銷商情緒和利潤率在當今的白酒行業中是罕見的。這預計將幫助茅台獲取市場份額。該公司是中國超高端酒市場的主導者，擁有最強的品牌價值。茅台的渠道策略將市場迴歸大型經銷商，預計飛天的價格將得到穩定。該公司預測未來三年中到高個位數的銷量增長，而價格上漲和產品組合變化被視為銷售增長的關鍵驅動因素。</p>
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傑富瑞表示，這隻中國股票 “具備結構性增長的潛力”