<p>對通貨膨脹、違約和軟件領域的人工智能驅動的顛覆的擔憂，導致近期私募信貸市場出現壓力，這促使摩根士丹利研究與領先的信貸首席執行官進行對話，他們認為人工智能是導致更大分散和波動的驅動因素，而不是在私募和槓桿貸款市場的廣泛市場顛覆。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利首席信貸策略師 <strong>阿曼達·萊南</strong> 表示：&#34;雖然軟件是私募信貸中最大的行業，但它也是廣泛分散的槓桿貸款市場中最大的行業。因此，如果人工智能確實使大量軟件公司失去中介地位，那麼公共市場和私募市場都會受到影響。&#34;</p>
<p>她補充道，私募信貸在部署其乾粉方面處於良好位置。然而，公共市場可能會保持波動，這可能會推動更多資本流入機會主義信貸策略。</p>
<p>萊南還強調，人工智能驅動的顛覆早已在私募信貸經理的雷達上，儘管其速度可能比預期加快。</p>
<p>她補充道：&#34;我主要認為私募和流動市場中的軟件敞口是額外分散的催化劑，而不是廣泛的市場顛覆。&#34;</p>
<p><strong>另請閲讀：</strong>
<strong>Pantheon Drives $1 Billion Investment Into Audax Credit Portfolio</strong></p>
<h2>當前私募信貸壓力 ‘不構成系統性風險’</h2>
<p>儘管 Oaktree 首席執行官 <strong>霍華德·馬克斯</strong>、Ares 首席執行官 <strong>邁克爾·阿魯赫提</strong>、Marathon 首席執行官 <strong>布魯斯·理查茲</strong> 和摩根士丹利的萊南都一致認為當前的私募信貸壓力&#34;不構成系統性風險&#34;，但他們對短期至中期的前景看法不一，報告指出。</p>
<p>阿魯赫提表達了類似的觀點，他表示自己並不特別擔心軟件敞口，並且這些擔憂似乎&#34;被誇大了&#34;。</p>
<p>與此同時，理查茲預計軟件修正將更加痛苦。私募市場中 23% 的貸款是軟件貸款，理查茲表示這是&#34;任何標準下都過高的數字&#34;。他預計到 2027 年、2028 年和 2029 年，軟件行業的違約率將達到&#34;極高的水平，違約率峯值為 15%，每年的違約率都將是兩位數，軟件貸款的損失率將在 70-100% 之間。&#34;</p>
<p>儘管對軟件的擔憂，理查茲表示他預計直接貸款將&#34;比以往任何時候都更大更強&#34;，因為修正將導致管理者紀律的迴歸。</p>
<p>馬克斯保持謹慎，預計零售投資者在公開出售的私募資產基金的弱點顯現時會更加小心。然而，他認為經歷完整的信貸週期最終可能會為直接貸款和整體私募信貸創造一個更強大、更健康的環境。</p>
<p>專家們認為這些風險不是系統性的，指出壓力集中在一個小的細分市場（非交易 BDC），有限的流動性和低槓桿降低了更廣泛危機的可能性。專家們還強調了總體健康的信貸基本面，並認為近期的違約並不足以表明重大問題。</p>
<p>總體而言，儘管短期不確定性和不同的觀點，執行官們認為私募信貸將保持韌性並繼續增長，可能在當前挑戰後變得更強。</p>
<p><strong>另請閲讀：</strong>
<strong>SEC Is 'Closely Monitoring' Private Credit Pressures: Chairman Atkins</strong></p>
<p><em>照片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>

高盛

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<p>高盛研究指出，由於通貨膨脹、違約和人工智能對軟件的影響，私人信貸市場面臨擔憂。首席信用策略師阿曼達·萊南指出，儘管軟件是私人信貸中的一個主要領域，但其風險暴露可能導致波動性增加，而不是廣泛的破壞。領先信貸公司的首席執行官們一致認為，目前的壓力並不構成系統性風險，儘管對前景的看法各不相同。儘管存在不確定性，他們相信私人信貸將保持韌性，並可能在當前挑戰中變得更強</p>

<p>Concerns over inflation, defaults, and AI-driven disruption in software have fueled recent stress in private credit markets, prompting Goldman Sachs Research to speak with leading credit CEOs, who see AI as a driver of greater dispersion and volatility rather than broad market disruption across private and leveraged loan markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對通貨膨脹、違約和軟件領域的人工智能驅動的顛覆的擔憂，導致近期私募信貸市場出現壓力，這促使摩根士丹利研究與領先的信貸首席執行官進行對話，他們認為人工智能是導致更大分散和波動的驅動因素，而不是在私募和槓桿貸款市場的廣泛市場顛覆。</p>
</div><p>&#34;While software is the largest sector in private credit, it's also the largest in the broadly syndicated leveraged loan market. So, if AI does disintermediate a significant share of software firms, both the public and private markets would be impacted,&#34; Goldman Sachs chief credit strategist <strong>Amanda Lynam</strong> said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利首席信貸策略師 <strong>阿曼達·萊南</strong> 表示：&#34;雖然軟件是私募信貸中最大的行業，但它也是廣泛分散的槓桿貸款市場中最大的行業。因此，如果人工智能確實使大量軟件公司失去中介地位，那麼公共市場和私募市場都會受到影響。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Private credit is well-positioned to deploy its dry powder, she added. Public markets, however, are likely to remain volatile, potentially driving more capital into opportunistic credit strategies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她補充道，私募信貸在部署其乾粉方面處於良好位置。然而，公共市場可能會保持波動，這可能會推動更多資本流入機會主義信貸策略。</p>
</div><p>Lynam also emphasized that AI-driven disruption has long been on the radar of private credit managers, though its pace may be accelerating faster than expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>萊南還強調，人工智能驅動的顛覆早已在私募信貸經理的雷達上，儘管其速度可能比預期加快。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I largely view the software exposure in both private and liquid markets as a catalyst for additional dispersion, not widespread market disruption,&#34; she added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她補充道：&#34;我主要認為私募和流動市場中的軟件敞口是額外分散的催化劑，而不是廣泛的市場顛覆。&#34;</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>Pantheon Drives $1 Billion Investment Into Audax Credit Portfolio</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另請閲讀：</strong>
<strong>Pantheon Drives $1 Billion Investment Into Audax Credit Portfolio</strong></p>
</div><h2>Current Private Credit Stresses ‘Don’t Pose Systemic Risk’</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>當前私募信貸壓力 ‘不構成系統性風險’</h2>
</div><p>While Oaktree CEO <strong>Howard Marks,</strong> Ares' CEO <strong>Michael Arougheti,</strong> Marathon's CEO <strong>Bruce Richards</strong> and Goldman's Lynam all agreed that the current private credit stresses &#34;don't pose systemic risk,&#34; they disagree on the near-to-medium term outlook, the report stated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 Oaktree 首席執行官 <strong>霍華德·馬克斯</strong>、Ares 首席執行官 <strong>邁克爾·阿魯赫提</strong>、Marathon 首席執行官 <strong>布魯斯·理查茲</strong> 和摩根士丹利的萊南都一致認為當前的私募信貸壓力&#34;不構成系統性風險&#34;，但他們對短期至中期的前景看法不一，報告指出。</p>
</div><p>Arougheti echoed similar views, saying he isn't particularly worried about software exposure and that the concerns appear &#34;overdone.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿魯赫提表達了類似的觀點，他表示自己並不特別擔心軟件敞口，並且這些擔憂似乎&#34;被誇大了&#34;。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Richards expects a software correction to be more painful. 23% of the private market is software loans, which Richards says is an &#34;excessive figure&#34; by any standard. He expects that we will see &#34;incredibly high software sector default rates in 2027, 2028, and 2029, with peak defaults of 15% and double-digit default rates in each of those years and software loan loss rates in the 70-100% range.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，理查茲預計軟件修正將更加痛苦。私募市場中 23% 的貸款是軟件貸款，理查茲表示這是&#34;任何標準下都過高的數字&#34;。他預計到 2027 年、2028 年和 2029 年，軟件行業的違約率將達到&#34;極高的水平，違約率峯值為 15%，每年的違約率都將是兩位數，軟件貸款的損失率將在 70-100% 之間。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Despite concerns about software, Richards said he expects direct lending to emerge &#34;bigger and stronger than ever&#34; as the correction will lead to a return of manager discipline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管對軟件的擔憂，理查茲表示他預計直接貸款將&#34;比以往任何時候都更大更強&#34;，因為修正將導致管理者紀律的迴歸。</p>
</div><p>Marks remains cautious, expecting retail investors to act more carefully as weaknesses in publicly sold private asset funds become visible. However, he believes that going through a full credit cycle could ultimately create a stronger, healthier environment for direct lending and private credit overall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>馬克斯保持謹慎，預計零售投資者在公開出售的私募資產基金的弱點顯現時會更加小心。然而，他認為經歷完整的信貸週期最終可能會為直接貸款和整體私募信貸創造一個更強大、更健康的環境。</p>
</div><p>The experts argue these risks are not systemic, noting that stress is concentrated in a small segment (non-traded BDCs), with limited liquidity and low leverage reducing the chance of a broader crisis. The experts also highlight generally healthy credit fundamentals and believe recent defaults are not large enough to signal major trouble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>專家們認為這些風險不是系統性的，指出壓力集中在一個小的細分市場（非交易 BDC），有限的流動性和低槓桿降低了更廣泛危機的可能性。專家們還強調了總體健康的信貸基本面，並認為近期的違約並不足以表明重大問題。</p>
</div><p>Overall, despite near-term uncertainty and differing views, the executives believe that private credit will remain resilient and continue growing, potentially emerging stronger after current challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，儘管短期不確定性和不同的觀點，執行官們認為私募信貸將保持韌性並繼續增長，可能在當前挑戰後變得更強。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>SEC Is 'Closely Monitoring' Private Credit Pressures: Chairman Atkins</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另請閲讀：</strong>
<strong>SEC Is 'Closely Monitoring' Private Credit Pressures: Chairman Atkins</strong></p>
</div><p><em>Photo: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Software Risk Isn't Just A Private Credit Problem, Says Goldman Sachs Chief Credit Strategist

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高盛首席信貸策略師表示，軟件風險不僅僅是私人信貸領域的問題