<p>CMSI 發佈報告稱，生牛奶價格觸底標誌着上游環節和整個乳製品行業的關鍵拐點，預計將引發跨年度的估值重估週期。該券商認為，行業正在積極實現供需再平衡，為行業領導者的盈利恢復奠定了堅實的宏觀基礎。</p>
<p>經過兩年的產能和庫存去化，CMSI 估計在 2025 年下半年供需缺口縮小至個位數，生牛奶價格在 2025 年第四季度穩定在每公斤人民幣 3 元至 3.05 元。持續的下行週期加速了中小型農場的退出，重塑了供應側格局，進一步集中行業向領先企業。這種環境有效抑制了不理性的產能擴張。隨着市場向平衡發展，為領先乳製品公司恢復利潤率創造了最佳窗口。</p>
<p>報告指出，儘管需求側尚未出現強勁復甦的明確跡象，但這被視為最後一塊拼圖。終端市場需求的明確反彈將標誌着當前週期的下一個階段，並催化全面的行業復甦。在這種背景下，CMSI 將蒙牛乳業（02319.HK）+0.360 (+2.095%) 空頭頭寸 6169 萬美元；比例 26.165% 上調至增持，目標價為 19.5 港元，並認為優然牧業（09858.HK）+0.010 (+0.262%) 空頭頭寸 505 萬美元；比例 10.897% 提供交易機會，稱其為首選的上游目標。（ha/w）（港股報價延遲至少 15 分鐘。空頭數據截至 2026-05-06 16:25。）</p>
<p>本文由 AI 自動翻譯，中文版本應視為權威版本。AASTOCKS.com Limited 不保證其準確性或完整性，並對因使用本翻譯而產生的任何損害或損失不承擔任何責任。</p>

蒙牛乳業(ADR)

蒙牛乳業

<p>CMSI 將蒙牛乳業評級上調至 “增持”，理由是生鮮乳價格出現關鍵拐點，可能導致乳製品行業的估值重新評級週期。報告指出供需關係正在重新平衡，預計到 2025 年第四季度，生鮮乳價格將在每公斤人民幣 3 元至 3.05 元之間穩定。儘管需求復甦的跡象仍在顯現，CMSI 認為這是領先乳製品公司恢復利潤率的關鍵時刻。優然乳業也被強調為一個交易機會</p>

<p>CMSI issued a report stating that the bottoming of raw milk prices marks a critical inflection point for the upstream segment and the entire dairy industry, and is expected to trigger a cross-year valuation re-rating cycle. The broker believes the industry is actively achieving supply-demand rebalancing, laying a solid macro foundation for earnings recovery among industry leaders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CMSI 發佈報告稱，生牛奶價格觸底標誌着上游環節和整個乳製品行業的關鍵拐點，預計將引發跨年度的估值重估週期。該券商認為，行業正在積極實現供需再平衡，為行業領導者的盈利恢復奠定了堅實的宏觀基礎。</p>
</div><p>After two years of capacity and inventory destocking, CMSI estimates that the supply-demand gap narrowed to single digits in 2H25, with raw milk prices stabilizing at RMB3 to RMB3.05 per kilogram in 4Q25. The prolonged downcycle accelerated the exit of small and medium-sized farms, reshaping the supply-side landscape and further concentrating the industry toward leading enterprises. This environment has effectively curbed irrational capacity expansion. As the market moves toward balance, it creates an optimal window for leading dairy companies to restore profit margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經過兩年的產能和庫存去化，CMSI 估計在 2025 年下半年供需缺口縮小至個位數，生牛奶價格在 2025 年第四季度穩定在每公斤人民幣 3 元至 3.05 元。持續的下行週期加速了中小型農場的退出，重塑了供應側格局，進一步集中行業向領先企業。這種環境有效抑制了不理性的產能擴張。隨着市場向平衡發展，為領先乳製品公司恢復利潤率創造了最佳窗口。</p>
</div><p>The report noted that while clear signs of a strong recovery on the demand side have yet to emerge, this is seen as the final piece of the puzzle. A definitive rebound in end-market demand will mark the next stage of the current cycle and catalyze a comprehensive industry recovery. Against this backdrop and at the starting point of the current upcycle, CMSI upgraded MENGNIU DAIRY (02319.HK) +0.360 (+2.095%)  Short selling $61.69M; Ratio 26.165%  to Overweight with a TP of HKD19.5, and believes YOURAN DAIRY (09858.HK) +0.010 (+0.262%)  Short selling $5.05M; Ratio 10.897%  offers trading opportunities, naming it as the preferred upstream target. (ha/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-06 16:25.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告指出，儘管需求側尚未出現強勁復甦的明確跡象，但這被視為最後一塊拼圖。終端市場需求的明確反彈將標誌着當前週期的下一個階段，並催化全面的行業復甦。在這種背景下，CMSI 將蒙牛乳業（02319.HK）+0.360 (+2.095%) 空頭頭寸 6169 萬美元；比例 26.165% 上調至增持，目標價為 19.5 港元，並認為優然牧業（09858.HK）+0.010 (+0.262%) 空頭頭寸 505 萬美元；比例 10.897% 提供交易機會，稱其為首選的上游目標。（ha/w）（港股報價延遲至少 15 分鐘。空頭數據截至 2026-05-06 16:25。）</p>
</div><p>This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文由 AI 自動翻譯，中文版本應視為權威版本。AASTOCKS.com Limited 不保證其準確性或完整性，並對因使用本翻譯而產生的任何損害或損失不承擔任何責任。</p>
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CMSI 將蒙牛乳業的評級上調至增持；優然牧業提供了交易機會