<h2 id="afcghteo9">NFP 關鍵點</h2><ul><li>NFP 報告預期：<strong>新增 65K 工作崗位</strong>，<strong>月度收入增長 0.3%</strong>，失業率為 <strong>4.3%。</strong></li><li>NFP 領先指標顯示本月就業報告可能超出預期，整體就業增長可能在 <strong>110-150K</strong> 範圍內。</li><li>歐元/美元在四月下半月回調後，過去幾周顯示出上漲的跡象。</li></ul><h2 id="zuvkj62g8">四月 NFP 報告何時發佈？</h2><p>四月 NFP 報告將於 <strong>5 月 7 日星期五，東部時間 8:30</strong> 發佈。</p><h2 id="sfp2auu2j">NFP 報告預期</h2><p>交易員和經濟學家預計 NFP 報告將顯示美國新增 <strong>65K 個淨新工作崗位</strong>，平均時薪增長 <strong>0.3%（同比 3.8%）</strong>，U3 失業率為 <strong>4.3%。</strong></p><h2 id="fjvnorf8m">NFP 概述</h2><p>如果你在年初告訴交易員，除了對人工智能造成的就業置換的持續擔憂外，美國還將與伊朗開戰，能源價格將上漲超過 100%，他們會合理地認為就業增長會崩潰，美國經濟可能會陷入衰退。</p><p>儘管存在這些持續的擔憂，美國勞動力市場仍然相對健康，今年迄今每月平均新增約 70K 個工作崗位，足以使失業率自年初以來保持在歷史低位 4.3%。現在就業市場面臨最新考驗，即四月 NFP 報告，交易員預計將延續過去一年左右的 “低招聘、低裁員” 模式：</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/4608f478a53db784c79c1486b67131d4?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="933" height="575" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/4608f478a53db784c79c1486b67131d4"/></figure><p><i>來源：StoneX</i></p><p>如上圖所示，交易員基本上預期將再次出現穩定的就業報告，適度的就業增長，穩定的失業率，以及持續的温和工資增長。</p><p>結合在霍爾木茲海峽持續關閉的背景下，通脹加速超過美聯儲 2% 的目標，交易員基本上抹去了今年美聯儲再次降息的預期，CME 的 FedWatch 工具顯示今年沒有任何利率變化的概率超過 70%：</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/74d7de57921078014430edd874257c39?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1272" height="598" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/74d7de57921078014430edd874257c39"/></figure><p><i>來源：CME FedWatch</i></p><p>顯然，交易員得出結論，即使凱文·沃什（Kevin Warsh），特朗普提名的下一任美聯儲主席上任，進一步降息的理由在短期內也將面臨艱難的挑戰。</p><h2 id="ojyk0mvt">NFP 預測</h2><p>如常規讀者所知，我們關注四個歷史上可靠的領先指標，以幫助評估每份 NFP 報告：</p><ul><li>ISM 製造業就業子指數從上個月的 <strong>48.7</strong> 下滑至 <strong>46.4</strong>。</li><li>ISM 服務業就業子指數保持在 <strong>53.6</strong>，與上個月的 54.0 持平。</li><li>ADP 就業報告顯示新增 <strong>109K</strong> 個工作崗位，高於上個月的 61K。</li><li>初次失業救濟申請的 4 周移動平均降至 <strong>203K</strong>，低於上個月的 208K，處於歷史低位。</li></ul><p>綜合數據和我們的內部模型，<strong>領先指標顯示本月就業報告可能超出預期，整體就業增長可能在 110-150K 範圍內</strong>，儘管由於響應率有限，存在較大的不確定性。</p><p>無論如何，這份報告的月度波動 notoriously 難以預測，因此我們不會對任何預測（包括我們的）過於看重。與往常一樣，報告的其他方面，包括備受關注的平均時薪數據和失業率，也將影響市場對發佈的反應。</p><h2 id="o49322k8t">潛在的 NFP 市場反應</h2><figure class="table"><table><thead><tr><th> </th><th> </th><th> </th><th> </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> </td><td><strong>工資 &lt; 0.2% m/m</strong></td><td><strong>工資 0.2-0.4% m/m</strong></td><td><strong>工資 &gt; 0.4% m/m</strong></td></tr><tr><td><strong>&lt; 20K 工作崗位</strong></td><td>稍微看跌美元</td><td>稍微看跌美元</td><td>中性美元</td></tr><tr><td><strong>20-110K 工作崗位</strong></td><td>中性美元</td><td>中性美元</td><td>稍微看漲美元</td></tr><tr><td><strong>&gt; 110K 工作崗位</strong></td><td>中性美元</td><td>稍微看漲美元</td><td>看漲美元</td></tr></tbody></table></figure><p>從技術上講，美元在與主要競爭對手的 3 個月區間底部附近交易，隨着伊朗驅動的避險需求略有減弱。進一步的緩和可能會對美元施加壓力，無論本月的就業報告顯示什麼。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></figure><h2 id="755sdjq1q">美元指數技術分析 – 歐元/美元 4 小時圖</h2><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/c90fede24ac7ea4e2c8608975eb72ef3?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1835" height="798" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/c90fede24ac7ea4e2c8608975eb72ef3"/></figure><p><i>來源：</i> <i>TradingView</i> <i>, StoneX</i></p><p>如上圖所示，全球交易最廣泛的貨幣對在四月下半月回調後，過去幾周顯示出上漲的跡象。</p><p>歐元/美元在過去一週從逐漸降低的低點和高點轉變為更高的低點和高點，可能為重新測試接近 1.1830 的 10 周高點奠定基礎，低於預期的就業報告或霍爾木茲海峽的重新開放可能成為看漲的基本催化劑。若突破 1.1830 水平，可能會暴露出 1.1900 的整數關口或 1.1940 的長期斐波那契回撤作為未來的目標。</p><p>與此同時，強勁的就業報告或伊朗 “熱戰” 的恢復可能會對歐元/美元施加壓力，並促使重新測試接近 1.1650 的短期 50% 斐波那契回撤，進入下週。</p><p><i>-- 作者：Matt Weller，全球研究主管</i></p><p><i>在 Twitter 上關注 Matt:</i> <i>@MWellerFX</i></p>

<p>即將發佈的非農就業報告預計顯示，美國新增 65,000 個就業崗位，平均時薪環比上漲 0.3%，失業率為 4.3%。領先指標表明，職位增長可能在 110,000 到 150,000 之間。儘管對人工智能導致的就業流失和地緣政治緊張局勢存在擔憂，但勞動力市場依然穩定。交易員預計美聯儲今年不會降息。歐元/美元貨幣對顯示出復甦跡象，潛在的看漲催化劑取決於就業報告的結果</p>

<h2>NFP Key Points</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NFP 關鍵點</h2>
</div><ul>
<li>NFP report expectations: <strong>+65K jobs</strong>, <strong>+0.3% m/m</strong> earnings, unemployment at <strong>4.3%.</strong></li>
<li>NFP leading indicators point to a potentially above-expected reading in this month’s jobs report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the <strong>110-150K</strong> range.</li>
<li>EUR/USD is showing signs of turning higher over the last couple of weeks after pulling back in the latter half of April.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>NFP 報告預期：<strong>新增 65K 工作崗位</strong>，<strong>月度收入增長 0.3%</strong>，失業率為 <strong>4.3%。</strong></li>
<li>NFP 領先指標顯示本月就業報告可能超出預期，整體就業增長可能在 <strong>110-150K</strong> 範圍內。</li>
<li>歐元/美元在四月下半月回調後，過去幾周顯示出上漲的跡象。</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>When is the April NFP Report?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>四月 NFP 報告何時發佈？</h2>
</div><p>The April NFP report will be released on <strong>Friday, May 7, at 8:30 ET.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>四月 NFP 報告將於 <strong>5 月 7 日星期五，東部時間 8:30</strong> 發佈。</p>
</div><h2>NFP Report Expectations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NFP 報告預期</h2>
</div><p>Traders and economists expect the NFP report to show that the US created <strong>65K net new jobs</strong>, with average hourly earnings rising <strong>0.3% m/m (3.8% y/y)</strong> and the U3 unemployment rate at <strong>4.3%.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易員和經濟學家預計 NFP 報告將顯示美國新增 <strong>65K 個淨新工作崗位</strong>，平均時薪增長 <strong>0.3%（同比 3.8%）</strong>，U3 失業率為 <strong>4.3%。</strong></p>
</div><h2>NFP Overview</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NFP 概述</h2>
</div><p>If you had told traders at the start of the year that, in addition to the ongoing concerns about AI job displacement, the US would go to war with Iran and energy prices would surge 100%+, they would justifiably assume job growth would collapse and the US economy could tip into recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在年初告訴交易員，除了對人工智能造成的就業置換的持續擔憂外，美國還將與伊朗開戰，能源價格將上漲超過 100%，他們會合理地認為就業增長會崩潰，美國經濟可能會陷入衰退。</p>
</div><p>Despite these ongoing concerns, the US labor market has remained relatively hale, adding an average of about 70K jobs per month so far this year, enough to keep the unemployment rate unchanged since the start of the year at the historically low level of 4.3%. Now the jobs market faces its latest test, the April NFP report, with traders expecting an extension of the “low hire, low fire” regime that has characterized the past year or so:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管存在這些持續的擔憂，美國勞動力市場仍然相對健康，今年迄今每月平均新增約 70K 個工作崗位，足以使失業率自年初以來保持在歷史低位 4.3%。現在就業市場面臨最新考驗，即四月 NFP 報告，交易員預計將延續過去一年左右的 “低招聘、低裁員” 模式：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260507114602-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260507114602-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: StoneX</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：StoneX</em></p>
</div><p>As the graphic above shows, traders are essentially anticipating another steady jobs report, with modest job growth, stable unemployment, and continued gradual wage increases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上圖所示，交易員基本上預期將再次出現穩定的就業報告，適度的就業增長，穩定的失業率，以及持續的温和工資增長。</p>
</div><p>Combined with accelerating inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target amidst the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, traders have essentially erased the expectation of another interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year, with the CME’s FedWatch tool showing a 70%+ probability of no changes to interest rates at all this year:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>結合在霍爾木茲海峽持續關閉的背景下，通脹加速超過美聯儲 2% 的目標，交易員基本上抹去了今年美聯儲再次降息的預期，CME 的 FedWatch 工具顯示今年沒有任何利率變化的概率超過 70%：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260507114602-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260507114602-2.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CME FedWatch</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：CME FedWatch</em></p>
</div><p>Clearly, traders are coming to the conclusion that even when Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, comes aboard, the case for additional interest rate cuts will be an uphill battle any time soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>顯然，交易員得出結論，即使凱文·沃什（Kevin Warsh），特朗普提名的下一任美聯儲主席上任，進一步降息的理由在短期內也將面臨艱難的挑戰。</p>
</div><h2>NFP Forecast</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NFP 預測</h2>
</div><p>As regular readers know, we focus on four historically reliable leading indicators to help handicap each NFP report:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如常規讀者所知，我們關注四個歷史上可靠的領先指標，以幫助評估每份 NFP 報告：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>The ISM Manufacturing Employment subindex slipped to <strong>46.4</strong> from 48.7 last month.</li>
<li>The ISM Services Employment subindex held steady at <strong>53.6</strong> vs. 54.0 last month.</li>
<li>The ADP Employment report came in at <strong>109K</strong> jobs, up from last month’s 61K reading.</li>
<li>The 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims fell to <strong>203K</strong>, down from 208K last month to historically low levels.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>ISM 製造業就業子指數從上個月的 <strong>48.7</strong> 下滑至 <strong>46.4</strong>。</li>
<li>ISM 服務業就業子指數保持在 <strong>53.6</strong>，與上個月的 54.0 持平。</li>
<li>ADP 就業報告顯示新增 <strong>109K</strong> 個工作崗位，高於上個月的 61K。</li>
<li>初次失業救濟申請的 4 周移動平均降至 <strong>203K</strong>，低於上個月的 208K，處於歷史低位。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Weighing the data and our internal models, <strong>the leading indicators point to a potentially above-expected reading in this month’s jobs report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 110-150K range</strong>, albeit with a big band of uncertainty given the limited response rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>綜合數據和我們的內部模型，<strong>領先指標顯示本月就業報告可能超出預期，整體就業增長可能在 110-150K 範圍內</strong>，儘管由於響應率有限，存在較大的不確定性。</p>
</div><p>Regardless, the month-to-month fluctuations in this report are notoriously difficult to predict, so we wouldn’t put too much stock into any forecasts (including ours). As always, the other aspects of the release, including the closely-watched average hourly earnings figure and unemployment rate will also impact how markets react to the release.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論如何，這份報告的月度波動 notoriously 難以預測，因此我們不會對任何預測（包括我們的）過於看重。與往常一樣，報告的其他方面，包括備受關注的平均時薪數據和失業率，也將影響市場對發佈的反應。</p>
</div><h2>Potential NFP Market Reaction</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>潛在的 NFP 市場反應</h2>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><strong>Wages &lt; 0.2% m/m</strong></td>
<td><strong>Wages 0.2-0.4% m/m</strong></td>
<td><strong>Wages &gt; 0.4% m/m</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>&lt; 20K jobs</strong></td>
<td>Slightly Bearish USD</td>
<td>Slightly Bearish USD</td>
<td>Neutral USD</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>20-110K jobs</strong></td>
<td>Neutral USD</td>
<td>Neutral USD</td>
<td>Slightly Bullish USD</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>&gt; 110K jobs</strong></td>
<td>Neutral USD</td>
<td>Slightly Bullish USD</td>
<td>Bullish USD</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><strong>工資 &lt; 0.2% m/m</strong></td>
<td><strong>工資 0.2-0.4% m/m</strong></td>
<td><strong>工資 &gt; 0.4% m/m</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>&lt; 20K 工作崗位</strong></td>
<td>稍微看跌美元</td>
<td>稍微看跌美元</td>
<td>中性美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>20-110K 工作崗位</strong></td>
<td>中性美元</td>
<td>中性美元</td>
<td>稍微看漲美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>&gt; 110K 工作崗位</strong></td>
<td>中性美元</td>
<td>稍微看漲美元</td>
<td>看漲美元</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Technically speaking, the US dollar is trading near the bottom of its 3-month range against its major rivals as the Iran-driven safe haven demand fades slightly. Further de-escalation could weigh on the greenback regardless of what this month’s jobs report shows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從技術上講，美元在與主要競爭對手的 3 個月區間底部附近交易，隨着伊朗驅動的避險需求略有減弱。進一步的緩和可能會對美元施加壓力，無論本月的就業報告顯示什麼。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h2>US Dollar Index Technical Analysis – EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元指數技術分析 – 歐元/美元 4 小時圖</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260507114602-3.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260507114602-3.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source:</em> <em>TradingView</em> <em>, StoneX</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：</em> <em>TradingView</em> <em>, StoneX</em></p>
</div><p>As the chart above shows, the world’s most widely-traded currency pair is showing signs of turning higher over the last couple of weeks after pulling back in the latter half of April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上圖所示，全球交易最廣泛的貨幣對在四月下半月回調後，過去幾周顯示出上漲的跡象。</p>
</div><p>EUR/USD has transitioned from putting in gradual lower lows and lower highs to higher lows and higher highs over the last week, potentially setting the stage for a retest of the 10-week highs near 1.1830, with a weaker-than-anticipated jobs report or reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as possible bullish fundamental catalysts. A clean break above the 1.1830 level could expose the 1.1900 round handle or longer-term Fibonacci retracement at 1.1940 as future targets for bulls.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐元/美元在過去一週從逐漸降低的低點和高點轉變為更高的低點和高點，可能為重新測試接近 1.1830 的 10 周高點奠定基礎，低於預期的就業報告或霍爾木茲海峽的重新開放可能成為看漲的基本催化劑。若突破 1.1830 水平，可能會暴露出 1.1900 的整數關口或 1.1940 的長期斐波那契回撤作為未來的目標。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, a strong jobs report or resumption of the “hot war” in Iran would likely weigh on EUR/USD and prompt a re-test of the near-term 50% Fibonacci retracement near 1.1650 as we head into next week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，強勁的就業報告或伊朗 “熱戰” 的恢復可能會對歐元/美元施加壓力，並促使重新測試接近 1.1650 的短期 50% 斐波那契回撤，進入下週。</p>
</div><p><em>-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>-- 作者：Matt Weller，全球研究主管</em></p>
</div><p><em>Follow Matt on Twitter:</em> <em>@MWellerFX</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>在 Twitter 上關注 Matt:</em> <em>@MWellerFX</em></p>
</div>

NFP Preview: No Sign of Turmoil in the Jobs Market?

- 四月 NFP 報告預計新增工作崗位 65K，失業率維持在 4.3%。  
- 領先指標顯示本月整體就業增長可能在 110-150K 範圍內。  
- 美聯儲降息預期降至 70%，員工工資增幅或影響市場反應。

非農就業數據預覽：就業市場是否沒有動盪跡象？