<p>標普 500 指數在週一的交易中面臨新的地緣政治壓力，週一早盤標普 500 期貨下跌 0.09%。在消化了週五的就業數據和市場動態後，投資者信心因週末外交談判的全面崩潰而受到衝擊。</p>
<p>基於 <strong>Polygon</strong> 的 (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket 人羣在週一開盤時明顯偏向看跌。目前 “5 月 11 日標普 500 是上漲還是下跌？” 市場反映出 “上漲” 開盤的概率為 38%，在週末外交崩潰後下降了 12%。週一的交易量目前為$13,977。</p>
<p>

https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/11013618/Polymarket-May-11-DOwn-300x182.png 300w&#34; sizes=&#34;(max-width: 760px) 100vw, 760px&#34; /&gt;</p>
<p><strong>另請閲讀：</strong>
<strong>收益波動觀察：本週有超過 17% 隱含波動的 10 只股票</strong></p>
<h2><strong>這個數字的重要性</strong></h2>
<p>對近期外交突破的希望在週日深夜破滅，<strong>唐納德·特朗普</strong> 總統明確 拒絕了伊朗的回應 對美國支持的和平提案。在 Truth Social 上，特朗普宣稱伊朗的條件 “完全不可接受！”</p>
<p>伊朗的反提案據報道要求結束美國的軍事壓力、解除制裁、賠償戰爭損失，並繼續控制霍爾木茲海峽。未能達成共識重新點燃了對全球能源供應衝擊的擔憂。</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>能源飆升：</strong> 由於談判破裂，原油價格飆升，WTI 原油上漲 3.31% 至每桶$98.58，布倫特原油上漲 3.19% 至$104.52，本文發佈時的價格。</li>
<li><strong>期貨下滑：</strong> 美國股指期貨因緊張局勢升級而下滑。標普 500 期貨下跌 0.09%，道瓊斯期貨下跌 0.02%。</li>
<li><strong>持續衝突：</strong> 以色列總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡進一步加劇了鷹派情緒，警告與伊朗的衝突 “尚未結束”，並提到對伊朗核基礎設施、代理人和彈道導彈能力的未解決擔憂。</li>
</ul>
<h2><strong>看漲反駁</strong></h2>
<p>儘管面臨地緣政治逆風，市場的某些韌性仍然可見。納斯達克 100 期貨上漲 0.02%，這表明一些投資者仍在技術股中尋找力量，以應對宏觀經濟的不確定性。</p>
<p><strong>之前的投注結果：</strong> 儘管標普 500 在週四回調，Polymarket 人羣 正確預測 週五的高開，最終將 5 月 8 日的投注結果定為 “上漲”。交易量為$177,709。</p>
<p><strong>另請閲讀：</strong>
<strong>特朗普在與習近平會晤前 “嚴重削弱”，參議院武裝服務委員會成員表示</strong></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>

標普 500 指數

西方石油

<p>標普 500 指數面臨地緣政治壓力，期貨在週一交易前下滑 0.09%。Polymarket 交易者表現出看跌情緒，預計在特朗普總統拒絕伊朗和平提案後，市場開盤上漲的概率僅為 38%。由於談判破裂，原油價格飆升，WTI 原油上漲 3.31%。儘管存在這些緊張局勢，納斯達克 100 期貨略有上漲，顯示出市場的韌性。之前的 Polymarket 押注正確預測了週五的高開，反映出市場的持續波動</p>

<p>The S&amp;P 500 heads into Monday’s session facing a fresh wave of geopolitical pressure, with S&amp;P 500 futures slipping 0.09% early on Monday. After digesting Friday’s jobs data and market action, investor confidence has been rattled by a total breakdown in weekend diplomatic talks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>標普 500 指數在週一的交易中面臨新的地緣政治壓力，週一早盤標普 500 期貨下跌 0.09%。在消化了週五的就業數據和市場動態後，投資者信心因週末外交談判的全面崩潰而受到衝擊。</p>
</div><p>The <strong>Polygon</strong>-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is leaning decisively bearish for the Monday open. The “S&amp;P 500 Opens Up or Down on May 11?” market currently reflects a 38% chance of an “Up” open, plunging 12% following the weekend’s diplomatic breakdown. Early trading volume for the Monday bet currently sits at $13,977.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基於 <strong>Polygon</strong> 的 (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket 人羣在週一開盤時明顯偏向看跌。目前 “5 月 11 日標普 500 是上漲還是下跌？” 市場反映出 “上漲” 開盤的概率為 38%，在週末外交崩潰後下降了 12%。週一的交易量目前為$13,977。</p>
</div><p>

https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/11013618/Polymarket-May-11-DOwn-300x182.png 300w&#34; sizes=&#34;(max-width: 760px) 100vw, 760px&#34; /&gt;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>

https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/11013618/Polymarket-May-11-DOwn-300x182.png 300w&#34; sizes=&#34;(max-width: 760px) 100vw, 760px&#34; /&gt;</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>Earnings Volatility Watch: 10 Stocks With More Than 17% Implied Moves This Week</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另請閲讀：</strong>
<strong>收益波動觀察：本週有超過 17% 隱含波動的 10 只股票</strong></p>
</div><h2><strong>Why That Number Matters</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>這個數字的重要性</strong></h2>
</div><p>Hopes for a near-term diplomatic breakthrough were shattered late Sunday when President <strong>Donald Trump</strong> explicitly rejected Iran’s response to a U.S.-backed peace proposal. Posting on Truth Social, Trump declared the Iranian terms “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對近期外交突破的希望在週日深夜破滅，<strong>唐納德·特朗普</strong> 總統明確 拒絕了伊朗的回應 對美國支持的和平提案。在 Truth Social 上，特朗普宣稱伊朗的條件 “完全不可接受！”</p>
</div><p>Iran’s counter-proposal reportedly demanded an end to U.S. military pressure, sanctions relief, compensation for war damages, and continued control over the Strait of Hormuz. The failure to reach a consensus has reignited fears of a prolonged global energy supply shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗的反提案據報道要求結束美國的軍事壓力、解除制裁、賠償戰爭損失，並繼續控制霍爾木茲海峽。未能達成共識重新點燃了對全球能源供應衝擊的擔憂。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Energy Spike:</strong> Crude oil prices surged on the breakdown in negotiations, with WTI crude jumping 3.31% to $98.58 per barrel and Brent crude advancing 3.19% to $104.52, at the time of publishing this piece.</li>
<li><strong>Futures Slide:</strong> U.S. stock futures slipped in response to the escalating tensions. S&amp;P 500 futures dropped 0.09%, while Dow futures fell 0.02%.</li>
<li><strong>Continued Conflict:</strong> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu added to the hawkish sentiment, warning that the conflict with Iran is “not over” and citing unresolved concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, proxies, and ballistic missile capabilities.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>能源飆升：</strong> 由於談判破裂，原油價格飆升，WTI 原油上漲 3.31% 至每桶$98.58，布倫特原油上漲 3.19% 至$104.52，本文發佈時的價格。</li>
<li><strong>期貨下滑：</strong> 美國股指期貨因緊張局勢升級而下滑。標普 500 期貨下跌 0.09%，道瓊斯期貨下跌 0.02%。</li>
<li><strong>持續衝突：</strong> 以色列總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡進一步加劇了鷹派情緒，警告與伊朗的衝突 “尚未結束”，並提到對伊朗核基礎設施、代理人和彈道導彈能力的未解決擔憂。</li>
</ul>
</div><h2><strong>The Bull Countercase</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>看漲反駁</strong></h2>
</div><p>Despite the geopolitical headwinds, pockets of market resilience remain visible. Nasdaq 100 futures managed to rise 0.02%, suggesting that some investors are still rotating into tech stocks for strength amidst macroeconomic uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管面臨地緣政治逆風，市場的某些韌性仍然可見。納斯達克 100 期貨上漲 0.02%，這表明一些投資者仍在技術股中尋找力量，以應對宏觀經濟的不確定性。</p>
</div><p><strong>How The Previous Bet Played Out:</strong> Despite a Thursday pullback in the S&amp;P 500, the Polymarket crowd correctly anticipated a higher Friday open, resolving the May 8 bet as “Up”. It settled with a traded volume of $177,709.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>之前的投注結果：</strong> 儘管標普 500 在週四回調，Polymarket 人羣 正確預測 週五的高開，最終將 5 月 8 日的投注結果定為 “上漲”。交易量為$177,709。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>Trump 'Terribly Weakened' Ahead Of Meeting With Xi Jinping, Says This Senate Armed Services Committee Member</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另請閲讀：</strong>
<strong>特朗普在與習近平會晤前 “嚴重削弱”，參議院武裝服務委員會成員表示</strong></p>
</div><p><em>Photo courtesy: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Will S&P 500 Open Up Or Down On May 11? Here's How Polymarket Traders Lean As Trump Rejects Iran Peace Proposal And Oil Surges

benzinga_article

和順石油

油氣服務 ETF - Market Vectors

能源業 ETF - Vanguard

能源業 ETF - SPDR

標普全球能源股指數 ETF - iShares

美國布倫特原油期貨基金

美國石油設備與服務 ETF - iShares

美國 WTI 原油 ETF

美國油氣勘探與生產 ETF - iShares

2 倍做空彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

國泰標普500ETF

博時標普500ETF

標普油氣設備與服務 ETF - SPDR

煉油公司指數 ETF - VanEck Vectors

納斯達克 100 指數

標普 500 指數在 5 月 11 日開盤時是上漲還是下跌？以下是 Polymarket 交易員的傾向，因為特朗普拒絕了伊朗的和平提議，油價飆升