<p>美國股票的牛市前景剛剛找到了一個新的上限，這個上限是由自 2020 年以來一直支持 “咆哮的 2020 年代” 的策略師設定的。</p>
<p>在 72 小時內，華爾街三家最受關注的策略部門提高了他們對標普 500 年末目標的預期。Yardeni Research 的總裁 Ed Yardeni 的目標最高，達到了 8,250 點——這是華爾街上最樂觀的預測。</p>
<p>週日，<strong>Ed Yardeni</strong> 將他的標普 500 年末目標從 7,700 點上調至 8,250 點，超越了華爾街上所有已發佈的預測，約比周五的創紀錄收盤價 7,398.93 高出 11.5%。</p>
<p>這一調整是在經歷了六週的連勝之後做出的，這段時間內基準指數——由 <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> 追蹤——達到了自 2024 年以來最長的上漲週期，Yardeni 在他的報告中將其描述為 “盈利驅動的上漲”。</p>
<p>“我們從未見過當前和未來幾年的共識盈利預期在最近幾個月內如此迅速地上升。結果是股市出現了盈利驅動的上漲，” Yardeni 説。</p>
<h2>Yardeni 以 8,250 點領先華爾街</h2>
<p>Yardeni 的新目標 8,250 點大約比周五的創紀錄收盤價 7,398.93 高出 11.5%。它現在超越了 Oppenheimer 的 8,100 點和德意志銀行的 8,000 點，成為華爾街上發佈的最激進的預測。</p>
<p>這位資深策略師還將他對持續 “咆哮的 2020 年代” 情景的主觀概率從 60% 提高至 80%，並將之前的 20% 上漲情景納入其中。由於經濟衰退引發的熊市的概率保持在 20%。</p>
<p>Yardeni 對長期前景的看法也更加明確。他堅持到 2029 年底標普 500 的目標為 10,000 點。</p>
<p>“它可能會提前到來，” 他補充道。</p>
<h2>RBC 的 Calvasina 將市場分為兩部分</h2>
<p>RBC 資本市場將其 12 個月的前瞻性目標從 7,750 點上調至 7,900 點，這一預測由美國股票策略主管 Lori Calvasina 設定。這個新數字意味着比周五的收盤價有 6.8% 的上漲空間，如果人工智能的盈利超出 “七大奇蹟”，則牛市目標為 8,100 點——即 9.5% 的漲幅。</p>
<p>“人工智能在快車道，中東在慢車道，” Calvasina 説。</p>
<p>這種框架就是預測。RBC 將標普 500 非人工智能部分的盈利預期下調了 7.5%，而將與人工智能相關的預期保持在接近華爾街的共識水平。這種不對稱性使得她的模型中指數得以上漲。</p>
<p><strong>另請閲讀：</strong>
<strong>SanDisk 在幾個月內完成了 Nvidia 花費 9 年才做到的事情——而且圖表看起來幾乎不真實</strong></p>
<h2>滙豐銀行看得更小，預見風險</h2>
<p>滙豐銀行將其 2026 年年末目標從 7,500 點上調至 7,650 點，這是三次上調中最小的一次。</p>
<p>該銀行預計 2026 年標普 500 的每股盈利增長約為 20%，即該指數的 325 美元，預計 “七大奇蹟” 將繼續推動大部分收益。根據滙豐引用的 LSEG I/B/E/S 數據，標普 500 第一季度的盈利預計將同比增長近 29%。</p>
<p>使這一預測有趣的是上漲路徑。滙豐的策略師們提出了一條可信的路徑，預計將超過 8,000 點——但指出上漲的狹窄性是結構性風險。大多數標普 500 股票仍低於其 52 周高點，如果參與度擴大，仍有進一步上漲的空間。</p>
<p>科技股和 “七大奇蹟” 現在佔標普 500 市值的一半以上，且佔指數盈利的 40% 以上，儘管估值已從之前的高峰回落。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>標普 500 年末 2026 目標</th>
<th>隱含上漲空間</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Yardeni Research</strong></td>
<td>8,250</td>
<td>+11.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Oppenheimer</strong></td>
<td>8,100</td>
<td>+9.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Deutsche Bank</strong></td>
<td>8,000</td>
<td>+8.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>RBC Capital Markets</strong></td>
<td>7,900</td>
<td>+6.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Morgan Stanley</strong></td>
<td>7,800</td>
<td>+5.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>HSBC</strong></td>
<td>7,650</td>
<td>+3.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Goldman Sachs</strong></td>
<td>7,600</td>
<td>+2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>JPMorgan</strong></td>
<td>7,500</td>
<td>+1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Bank of America</strong></td>
<td>7,100</td>
<td>−4.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>另請閲讀：</strong>
<strong>盈利波動觀察：本週 10 只股票隱含波動超過 17%</strong></p>
<p><em>圖像由人工智能通過 Midjourney 創建。</em></p>

標普 500 指數

滙豐

加拿大皇家銀行

<p>三家主要的華爾街公司，Yardeni Research、RBC Capital Markets 和滙豐，已提高了他們對標普 500 年終目標的預期。Yardeni 的目標為 8,250，反映出對盈利增長的樂觀看法。RBC 將其目標提高至 7,900，強調由人工智能驅動的市場分化，而滙豐則將目標上調至 7,650，指出窄幅反彈中的風險。這些調整突顯了策略師們的看漲情緒，其中 Yardeni 的預測在華爾街上最為激進</p>

<p>The bull case for U.S. stocks just found a new ceiling, and it was set by the strategist who has been carrying the torch for the “Roaring 2020s” since 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國股票的牛市前景剛剛找到了一個新的上限，這個上限是由自 2020 年以來一直支持 “咆哮的 2020 年代” 的策略師設定的。</p>
</div><p>In 72 hours, three of Wall Street’s most-followed strategy desks lifted their S&amp;P 500 year-end targets. Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni went highest, to 8,250 — the most bullish call on the Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 72 小時內，華爾街三家最受關注的策略部門提高了他們對標普 500 年末目標的預期。Yardeni Research 的總裁 Ed Yardeni 的目標最高，達到了 8,250 點——這是華爾街上最樂觀的預測。</p>
</div><p>On Sunday, <strong>Ed Yardeni</strong> raised his year-end S&amp;P 500 target to 8,250 from 7,700, moving above every published call on Wall Street and roughly 11.5% above Friday’s record close of 7,398.93.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週日，<strong>Ed Yardeni</strong> 將他的標普 500 年末目標從 7,700 點上調至 8,250 點，超越了華爾街上所有已發佈的預測，約比周五的創紀錄收盤價 7,398.93 高出 11.5%。</p>
</div><p>The move arrived after a six-week winning streak that pushed the benchmark – tracked by the <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> (NYSE: SPY) – to its longest stretch of gains since 2024, fueled by what Yardeni described in his note as an “earnings-led meltup.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一調整是在經歷了六週的連勝之後做出的，這段時間內基準指數——由 <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> 追蹤——達到了自 2024 年以來最長的上漲週期，Yardeni 在他的報告中將其描述為 “盈利驅動的上漲”。</p>
</div><p>“We’ve never seen consensus earnings expectations rise so quickly for the current and coming years as they have in recent months. The result has been an earnings-led meltup in the stock market,” Yardeni said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們從未見過當前和未來幾年的共識盈利預期在最近幾個月內如此迅速地上升。結果是股市出現了盈利驅動的上漲，” Yardeni 説。</p>
</div><h2>Yardeni Tops The Street At 8,250</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Yardeni 以 8,250 點領先華爾街</h2>
</div><p>Yardeni’s new 8,250 target sits roughly 11.5% above Friday’s record close of 7,398.93. It now edges past Oppenheimer’s 8,100 and Deutsche Bank’s 8,000 to become the most aggressive call published on Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Yardeni 的新目標 8,250 點大約比周五的創紀錄收盤價 7,398.93 高出 11.5%。它現在超越了 Oppenheimer 的 8,100 點和德意志銀行的 8,000 點，成為華爾街上發佈的最激進的預測。</p>
</div><p>The veteran strategist also raised his subjective probability of a continued “Roaring 2020s” scenario to 80% from 60%, folding in his previous 20% meltup case. Odds of a recession-driven bear market stayed at 20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這位資深策略師還將他對持續 “咆哮的 2020 年代” 情景的主觀概率從 60% 提高至 80%，並將之前的 20% 上漲情景納入其中。由於經濟衰退引發的熊市的概率保持在 20%。</p>
</div><p>Yardeni’s longer-horizon view sharpened too. He stuck with a 10,000 target for the S&amp;P 500 by the end of 2029.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Yardeni 對長期前景的看法也更加明確。他堅持到 2029 年底標普 500 的目標為 10,000 點。</p>
</div><p>“It might arrive ahead of schedule,” he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“它可能會提前到來，” 他補充道。</p>
</div><h2>RBC’s Calvasina Splits The Market In Two</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>RBC 的 Calvasina 將市場分為兩部分</h2>
</div><p>RBC Capital Markets raised its 12-month forward target to 7,900 from 7,750 on Friday, a call set by Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy. The new number implies 6.8% upside from Friday’s close, with a bull case at 8,100 — a 9.5% gain — if AI earnings broaden beyond the Magnificent Seven.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>RBC 資本市場將其 12 個月的前瞻性目標從 7,750 點上調至 7,900 點，這一預測由美國股票策略主管 Lori Calvasina 設定。這個新數字意味着比周五的收盤價有 6.8% 的上漲空間，如果人工智能的盈利超出 “七大奇蹟”，則牛市目標為 8,100 點——即 9.5% 的漲幅。</p>
</div><p>“AI in the fast lane, Middle East in the slow lane,” Calvasina said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“人工智能在快車道，中東在慢車道，” Calvasina 説。</p>
</div><p>The framing is the call. RBC cut earnings expectations for the non-AI portion of the S&amp;P 500 by 7.5%, while leaving AI-related estimates closer to Street consensus. The asymmetry is what carries the index higher in her model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種框架就是預測。RBC 將標普 500 非人工智能部分的盈利預期下調了 7.5%，而將與人工智能相關的預期保持在接近華爾街的共識水平。這種不對稱性使得她的模型中指數得以上漲。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>SanDisk Did In Months What Nvidia Took 9 Years To Pull Off — And The Chart Looks Almost Unreal</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另請閲讀：</strong>
<strong>SanDisk 在幾個月內完成了 Nvidia 花費 9 年才做到的事情——而且圖表看起來幾乎不真實</strong></p>
</div><h2>HSBC Goes Smaller, Sees Risks Ahead</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>滙豐銀行看得更小，預見風險</h2>
</div><p>HSBC raised its year-end 2026 target to 7,650 from 7,500 on Monday, the smallest of the three hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>滙豐銀行將其 2026 年年末目標從 7,500 點上調至 7,650 點，這是三次上調中最小的一次。</p>
</div><p>The bank expects 2026 S&amp;P 500 earnings per share growth of about 20%, or $325 for the index, with the Magnificent Seven continuing to drive the bulk of gains. First-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings are on track to climb nearly 29% year-on-year, according to LSEG I/B/E/S data cited by HSBC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該銀行預計 2026 年標普 500 的每股盈利增長約為 20%，即該指數的 325 美元，預計 “七大奇蹟” 將繼續推動大部分收益。根據滙豐引用的 LSEG I/B/E/S 數據，標普 500 第一季度的盈利預計將同比增長近 29%。</p>
</div><p>What makes the call interesting is the upside path. HSBC strategists laid out a credible route above 8,000 — but flagged the rally’s narrowness as the structural risk. Most S&amp;P 500 stocks still trade below their 52-week highs, leaving room for further upside if participation broadens.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使這一預測有趣的是上漲路徑。滙豐的策略師們提出了一條可信的路徑，預計將超過 8,000 點——但指出上漲的狹窄性是結構性風險。大多數標普 500 股票仍低於其 52 周高點，如果參與度擴大，仍有進一步上漲的空間。</p>
</div><p>Tech and the Magnificent Seven now account for more than half of the S&amp;P 500’s market cap and more than 40% of index earnings, though valuations have de-rated from prior peaks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科技股和 “七大奇蹟” 現在佔標普 500 市值的一半以上，且佔指數盈利的 40% 以上，儘管估值已從之前的高峰回落。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Firm</th>
<th>S&amp;P 500 Year-end 2026 Target</th>
<th>Implied Upside</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Yardeni Research</strong></td>
<td>8,250</td>
<td>+11.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Oppenheimer</strong></td>
<td>8,100</td>
<td>+9.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Deutsche Bank</strong></td>
<td>8,000</td>
<td>+8.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>RBC Capital Markets</strong></td>
<td>7,900</td>
<td>+6.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Morgan Stanley</strong></td>
<td>7,800</td>
<td>+5.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>HSBC</strong></td>
<td>7,650</td>
<td>+3.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Goldman Sachs</strong></td>
<td>7,600</td>
<td>+2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>JPMorgan</strong></td>
<td>7,500</td>
<td>+1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Bank of America</strong></td>
<td>7,100</td>
<td>−4.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>標普 500 年末 2026 目標</th>
<th>隱含上漲空間</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Yardeni Research</strong></td>
<td>8,250</td>
<td>+11.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Oppenheimer</strong></td>
<td>8,100</td>
<td>+9.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Deutsche Bank</strong></td>
<td>8,000</td>
<td>+8.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>RBC Capital Markets</strong></td>
<td>7,900</td>
<td>+6.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Morgan Stanley</strong></td>
<td>7,800</td>
<td>+5.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>HSBC</strong></td>
<td>7,650</td>
<td>+3.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Goldman Sachs</strong></td>
<td>7,600</td>
<td>+2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>JPMorgan</strong></td>
<td>7,500</td>
<td>+1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Bank of America</strong></td>
<td>7,100</td>
<td>−4.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>Earnings Volatility Watch: 10 Stocks With More Than 17% Implied Moves This Week</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另請閲讀：</strong>
<strong>盈利波動觀察：本週 10 只股票隱含波動超過 17%</strong></p>
</div><p><em>Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖像由人工智能通過 Midjourney 創建。</em></p>
</div>

Yardeni, RBC, And HSBC Raise S&P 500 Targets: Who's The Most Bullish On The Street Now?

- 三家華爾街策略團隊提高了 2026 年 S&P 500 目標。  
- Yardeni Research 的 Ed Yardeni 將目標上調至 8250，超越其他預測。  
- HSBC 則小幅上調至 7650，警示整體市場上漲風險。

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BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.375% DP SH RP 1/1000TH IN NON CU PF NN

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SH REP 1/1200TH PRF SER 1 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.375%DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM SR KK

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 6%NON CUM DEP SHS EACH REP 1/1000 SER GG

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200 PFD SER 4 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD SER SS

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.125%DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER PP USD25

Bank of America Corp

Yardeni、加拿大皇家銀行和滙豐上調標普 500 指數目標：現在誰是市場上最樂觀的？