<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/gold-bars-cash-transaction.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/gold-bars-cash-transaction.png"/></p>
<p>自伊朗衝突開始以來，黃金價格下跌了約 12%，違背了其傳統的避險角色。</p>
<p>ING 策略師 Ewa Manthey 表示，拋售反映了由於油價上漲、收益率上升和美元走強帶來的宏觀壓力，但預計到年底價格仍可能上漲至每盎司 5000 美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778508883.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778508883.png"/></p>
<p>來源：ING 研究</p>
<h2>黃金的反常下跌</h2>
<p>黃金通常被視為危機時期的對沖工具，但自伊朗戰爭爆發以來，其價格急劇下跌。</p>
<p>根據 ING 經濟學的分析，自 2 月底以來，該金屬價格已下跌約 12%，Manthey 將這一走勢形容為 “反常但可以解釋”。</p>
<p>Manthey 指出：“黃金的避險吸引力通常在金融危機或經濟增長衝擊時表現最佳——當實際收益率下降，美元走弱時。”</p>
<blockquote>
<p>供給驅動的能源衝擊則恰恰相反。油價上漲推動通脹上升，使中央銀行保持觀望，並加強美元，這些因素都對黃金造成壓力。</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>宏觀壓力</h2>
<p>美聯儲在 4 月決定維持利率不變，進一步加大了壓力。</p>
<p>自戰爭開始以來，通脹重新加速，減少了近期放鬆政策的理由。</p>
<p>Manthey 解釋道：“實際收益率和美元仍然是黃金的主要制約因素。持續的能源衝擊可能會推遲美聯儲降息的時間表。”</p>
<p>週五的美國就業數據表明勞動力市場持續強勁，失業率穩定在 4.3%。</p>
<p>這使得美聯儲沒有理由急於降息，強化了對黃金造成壓力的 “長期高位” 敍述。</p>
<h2>和平談判與地緣政治風險</h2>
<p>上週黃金短暫反彈，但在美國總統特朗普拒絕伊朗最新和平提案為 “完全不可接受” 後，漲幅回吐。</p>
<p>Manthey 表示：“這一挫折使停火時間表不確定，通脹風險上升——強化了在整個衝突期間對黃金造成壓力的長期高位利率敍述。”</p>
<p>她補充説，持久的解決方案仍然是持續復甦的關鍵催化劑。</p>
<p>在此之前，黃金可能會在地緣政治不確定性和貨幣壓力之間徘徊。</p>
<h2>中央銀行需求</h2>
<p>儘管短期內疲軟，中央銀行仍繼續提供結構性支持。</p>
<p>中國央行在 4 月增持了 8.1 噸，延續了 15 個月的購金潮。</p>
<p>波蘭在第一季度也增加了 31 噸儲備，而土耳其則是最大的賣家，減持了 60 噸以支持外匯流動性。</p>
<p>Manthey 強調：“儲備多樣化在中期內對黃金仍然是支持因素，即使一些中央銀行為了增強流動性而出售黃金。”</p>
<h2>ETF 流入轉為正向</h2>
<p>投資者的持倉也在發生變化。</p>
<p>全球黃金 ETF 在 4 月錄得 66 億美元的流入，扭轉了 3 月的流出。</p>
<p>歐洲引領了這一趨勢，反映出對霍爾木茲海峽關閉的擔憂。</p>
<p>根據世界黃金協會的數據，亞洲和美國的貢獻約佔歐洲的三分之一。</p>
<p>Manthey 表示：“ETF 流入與美聯儲的預期密切相關——美聯儲的放鬆政策應成為下半年重新流入的催化劑。”</p>
<p>COMEX 上管理資金的持續淨多頭頭寸表明投資者的樂觀前景，儘管目前的持倉尚未被視為過度或 “擁擠”。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778508929.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778508929.png"/></p>
<p>來源：ING 研究</p>
<h2>前景：儘管存在風險仍然樂觀</h2>
<p>ING 對黃金保持樂觀，預計到年底價格可能攀升至每盎司 5000 美元。</p>
<p>然而，Manthey 警告稱，風險依然存在：“主要的下行風險是和平談判的破裂，這將使能源價格保持高位，並使美聯儲在年底前保持觀望。”</p>
<blockquote>
<p>黃金的避險角色沒有問題。但最近幾個月表明，短期價格走勢仍可能受到宏觀因素的主導——特別是實際收益率、美元和對美聯儲政策的預期。一旦這些壓力開始緩解，黃金的基本支撐應會重新顯現。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>在撰寫本文時，COMEX 上最活躍的 6 月黃金合約價格為每盎司 4729 美元，與前一交易日基本持平。</p>
<p>ING 預計黃金在年底前接近每盎司 5000 美元，儘管當前疲軟，首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>

山東黃金

紐蒙特礦業

<p>ING 策略師 Ewa Manthey 預測，儘管自伊朗衝突開始以來黃金價格已下跌 12%，但到年底黃金價格可能會上漲至每盎司 5,000 美元。這一下降歸因於宏觀經濟壓力，如油價上漲、收益率上升和美元走強。雖然黃金通常被視為避風港，但當前的條件對這一角色構成了挑戰。中央銀行的需求仍然支持黃金市場，4 月份黃金 ETF 的顯著資金流入被注意到。然而，風險依然存在，特別是關於地緣政治緊張局勢和美聯儲政策的風險</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/gold-bars-cash-transaction.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/gold-bars-cash-transaction.png"/></p>
<p>Gold has fallen about 12% since the Iran conflict began, defying its traditional safe‑haven role.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自伊朗衝突開始以來，黃金價格下跌了約 12%，違背了其傳統的避險角色。</p>
</div><p>ING strategist Ewa Manthey says the sell‑off reflects macro headwinds from higher oil prices, stronger yields, and a firmer dollar, but forecasts prices could still rise to $5,000 per ounce by year‑end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 策略師 Ewa Manthey 表示，拋售反映了由於油價上漲、收益率上升和美元走強帶來的宏觀壓力，但預計到年底價格仍可能上漲至每盎司 5000 美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778508883.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778508883.png"/></p>
<p>Source: ING Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：ING 研究</p>
</div><h2>Gold’s counterintuitive decline</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>黃金的反常下跌</h2>
</div><p>Gold is typically seen as a hedge in times of crisis, yet since the outbreak of the Iran war, it has dropped sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金通常被視為危機時期的對沖工具，但自伊朗戰爭爆發以來，其價格急劇下跌。</p>
</div><p>According to ING Economics, the metal has lost around 12% since late February, a move Manthey describes as “counterintuitive but explainable.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 ING 經濟學的分析，自 2 月底以來，該金屬價格已下跌約 12%，Manthey 將這一走勢形容為 “反常但可以解釋”。</p>
</div><p>“Gold’s safe‑haven appeal tends to perform best in a financial crisis or growth shock – when real yields fall, and the dollar weakens,” Manthey noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Manthey 指出：“黃金的避險吸引力通常在金融危機或經濟增長衝擊時表現最佳——當實際收益率下降，美元走弱時。”</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>A supply‑driven energy shock does the opposite. Higher oil prices push inflation up, keep central banks on hold and strengthen the dollar, all of which weigh on gold.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>供給驅動的能源衝擊則恰恰相反。油價上漲推動通脹上升，使中央銀行保持觀望，並加強美元，這些因素都對黃金造成壓力。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Macro headwinds</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>宏觀壓力</h2>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve’s decision to leave rates unchanged in April added to the pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲在 4 月決定維持利率不變，進一步加大了壓力。</p>
</div><p>Inflation has re‑accelerated since the war began, reducing the case for near‑term easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自戰爭開始以來，通脹重新加速，減少了近期放鬆政策的理由。</p>
</div><p>Manthey explained: “Real yields and the dollar remain the key constraints on gold. A prolonged energy shock could push back the timeline for Fed cuts.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Manthey 解釋道：“實際收益率和美元仍然是黃金的主要制約因素。持續的能源衝擊可能會推遲美聯儲降息的時間表。”</p>
</div><p>Friday’s US payrolls data showed continued labor market strength, with unemployment steady at 4.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五的美國就業數據表明勞動力市場持續強勁，失業率穩定在 4.3%。</p>
</div><p>That gave the Fed little reason to rush into rate cuts, reinforcing the higher‑for‑longer narrative that has weighed on bullion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使得美聯儲沒有理由急於降息，強化了對黃金造成壓力的 “長期高位” 敍述。</p>
</div><h2>Peace talks and geopolitical risk</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>和平談判與地緣政治風險</h2>
</div><p>Gold briefly rallied last week but gave back gains after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal as “totally unacceptable.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週黃金短暫反彈，但在美國總統特朗普拒絕伊朗最新和平提案為 “完全不可接受” 後，漲幅回吐。</p>
</div><p>Manthey said: “The setback keeps the ceasefire timeline uncertain and inflation risks elevated – reinforcing the higher‑for‑longer rate narrative that has weighed on gold throughout the conflict.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Manthey 表示：“這一挫折使停火時間表不確定，通脹風險上升——強化了在整個衝突期間對黃金造成壓力的長期高位利率敍述。”</p>
</div><p>She added that a durable resolution remains the key catalyst for a sustained recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她補充説，持久的解決方案仍然是持續復甦的關鍵催化劑。</p>
</div><p>Until then, gold is likely to remain caught between geopolitical uncertainty and monetary headwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在此之前，黃金可能會在地緣政治不確定性和貨幣壓力之間徘徊。</p>
</div><h2>Central bank demand</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中央銀行需求</h2>
</div><p>Despite short‑term weakness, central banks continue to provide structural support.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管短期內疲軟，中央銀行仍繼續提供結構性支持。</p>
</div><p>China’s central bank added 8.1 tonnes in April, extending its buying streak to 15 consecutive months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國央行在 4 月增持了 8.1 噸，延續了 15 個月的購金潮。</p>
</div><p>Poland also increased reserves by 31 tonnes in Q1, while Turkey was the largest seller, cutting holdings by 60 tonnes to support foreign exchange liquidity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波蘭在第一季度也增加了 31 噸儲備，而土耳其則是最大的賣家，減持了 60 噸以支持外匯流動性。</p>
</div><p>Manthey emphasised: “Reserve diversification remains supportive for gold over the medium term, even as some central banks sell to shore up liquidity.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Manthey 強調：“儲備多樣化在中期內對黃金仍然是支持因素，即使一些中央銀行為了增強流動性而出售黃金。”</p>
</div><h2>ETF flows turning positive</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>ETF 流入轉為正向</h2>
</div><p>Investor positioning is also shifting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者的持倉也在發生變化。</p>
</div><p>Global gold ETFs recorded $6.6 billion of inflows in April, reversing March outflows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球黃金 ETF 在 4 月錄得 66 億美元的流入，扭轉了 3 月的流出。</p>
</div><p>Europe led the move, reflecting concerns about exposure to a Strait of Hormuz closure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐洲引領了這一趨勢，反映出對霍爾木茲海峽關閉的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>Contributions from Asia and the US were around a third of Europe’s over the month, according to data from the World Gold Council.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據世界黃金協會的數據，亞洲和美國的貢獻約佔歐洲的三分之一。</p>
</div><p>Manthey said: “ETF flows track Fed expectations closely – Fed easing should be a catalyst for renewed inflows in the second half.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Manthey 表示：“ETF 流入與美聯儲的預期密切相關——美聯儲的放鬆政策應成為下半年重新流入的催化劑。”</p>
</div><p>The sustained net long positions of managed money on COMEX suggest a positive outlook among investors, although the positioning is not yet considered excessive or &#34;crowded.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>COMEX 上管理資金的持續淨多頭頭寸表明投資者的樂觀前景，儘管目前的持倉尚未被視為過度或 “擁擠”。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778508929.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778508929.png"/></p>
<p>Source: ING Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：ING 研究</p>
</div><h2>Outlook: constructive despite risks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>前景：儘管存在風險仍然樂觀</h2>
</div><p>ING remains constructive on gold, projecting prices could climb to $5,000 per ounce by year‑end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 對黃金保持樂觀，預計到年底價格可能攀升至每盎司 5000 美元。</p>
</div><p>Manthey cautioned, however, that risks remain: “The main downside risk is a breakdown in peace talks that keeps energy prices elevated and the Fed on hold into year‑end.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Manthey 警告稱，風險依然存在：“主要的下行風險是和平談判的破裂，這將使能源價格保持高位，並使美聯儲在年底前保持觀望。”</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Gold’s safe‑haven role is not in question. But recent months have shown that short‑term price action can still be dominated by macro forces – particularly real yields, the dollar and expectations for Fed policy. Once those headwinds begin to ease, gold’s underlying support should reassert itself.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>黃金的避險角色沒有問題。但最近幾個月表明，短期價格走勢仍可能受到宏觀因素的主導——特別是實際收益率、美元和對美聯儲政策的預期。一旦這些壓力開始緩解，黃金的基本支撐應會重新顯現。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>At the time of writing, the most-active June gold contract on the COMEX was at $4,729 per ounce, largely unchanged from the previous close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在撰寫本文時，COMEX 上最活躍的 6 月黃金合約價格為每盎司 4729 美元，與前一交易日基本持平。</p>
</div><p>The post ING sees gold near $5,000/oz by year‑end despite current weakness appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 預計黃金在年底前接近每盎司 5000 美元，儘管當前疲軟，首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

ING sees gold near $5,000/oz by year‑end despite current weakness

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儘管當前金價疲軟，荷蘭國際預計到年底金價將接近每盎司 5,000 美元