<p>[香港] 中國投資者寄希望於習近平與唐納德·特朗普之間的峯會能夠提供足夠的支持，以維持支撐股市和人民幣的緩和貿易關係。</p>
<p>市場觀察者並不寄希望於關係的全面重置，而是關注兩位領導人能否避免在貿易、技術和地緣政治方面的重新摩擦。即使在這些關鍵問題上沒有重大突破，廣泛的建設性結果也被認為能夠保持積極的市場情緒。</p>
<p>這種謹慎的樂觀情緒使得投資者選擇在中國資產上進行戰術性而非結構性的投資，自去年十月雙方在韓國達成貿易休戰以來，這些資產已經上漲。繼續看漲人民幣，並選擇性購買那些有望受益於貨幣穩定、出口韌性、國內技術投資和對人工智能需求的股票，是投資者偏好的交易。</p>
<p>“理想的情況是現狀能夠持續，” 摩根大通亞太區首席市場策略師邰輝在香港表示。“考慮到能源和石化的供應風險，關税和貿易緊張局勢目前在投資者心中已處於次要地位。”</p>
<p>特朗普的到訪將標誌着近十年來現任美國總統首次訪問中國。政策專家預計此次為期兩天的會議不會達成重大協議，此次會議曾因特朗普專注於與伊朗的衝突而推遲。然而，它可能會在邊緣上達成一些交易，例如中國額外購買美國大豆或波音飛機。</p>
<p>在此次事件之前，中國市場表現良好，表明投資者認為世界兩大經濟體之間的關係不會急劇惡化。</p>
<h3>在新的全球秩序中導航亞洲</h3>
<p>獲取洞察，送達您的郵箱。</p>
<p>在過去三個月中，人民幣在岸匯率上漲約 1.7%，成為亞洲對美元表現最佳的貨幣，目前交易價格為 2023 年初以來的最高水平。人民幣的上漲得益於中美關係的改善以及美元的疲軟。</p>
<p>高盛預計人民幣在未來一年將繼續上漲，認為其被低估超過 20%。包括卡馬克夏·特里維迪在內的策略師在 5 月 8 日的報告中指出，人民幣仍遠低於中國出口實力和外部盈餘所合理化的水平。</p>
<h2>‘風險溢價’</h2>
<p>伊朗戰爭預計將成為議程的重點。美國和中國都希望看到霍爾木茲海峽的重新開放，衝突之前全球五分之一的石油和天然氣流經該海峽。對北京來説，關鍵問題是它是否準備對德黑蘭施加壓力，以及它希望從華盛頓獲得什麼作為回報。</p>
<p>另見</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/3620faa95394f0fcd89c5764758f0d575951bfb4c55690f061564f2a6b7534d4/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/3620faa95394f0fcd89c5764758f0d575951bfb4c55690f061564f2a6b7534d4/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>美國工業界和立法者懇請特朗普：在即將舉行的習近平峯會上不要向中國汽車打開大門</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/2516c07c18ead2239f64043bd157c9b8766ebfe30a249ffa3d76a349fde3c23a/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/2516c07c18ead2239f64043bd157c9b8766ebfe30a249ffa3d76a349fde3c23a/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>中國確認習近平 - 特朗普峯會因伊朗戰爭而推遲</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/4f794b55741dccbd62dcf3de2a47bab4618ae80126ca610e5705fcc71c6bbcec/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/4f794b55741dccbd62dcf3de2a47bab4618ae80126ca610e5705fcc71c6bbcec/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>特朗普計劃在即將舉行的峯會上向習近平施壓，要求中國對伊朗戰爭採取立場</h3>
<p>“如果 2025 年釜山峯會可以作為參考，那麼此次接觸可能會促進人民幣升值，並在中東緊張局勢緩解的情況下引發風險偏好的股票反彈，” 花旗經濟學家餘向榮和季新宇在一份報告中寫道。“我們預計經濟議程將強化雙邊關係的短期穩定，但不會逆轉結構性阻力。”</p>
<p>總體而言，習近平和特朗普預計將尋求延長貿易休戰。市場仍然容易受到任何負面意外的影響，談判的挫折可能會逆轉情緒並侵蝕近期的收益。</p>
<p>儘管如此，高盛的股票策略師預測，由於投資者在峯會前的預期較低，股票可能會在短期內上漲。</p>
<p>滬深 300 指數作為在岸股票的基準，週一上漲 1.6%。該指數在本季度迄今上漲約 11%，儘管它落後於因韓國和台灣科技股激增而受到提振的更廣泛的亞洲基準。</p>
<p>“此次峯會能夠做的就是壓縮美國和中國之間從地緣政治角度持續存在的不確定性溢價，” 景順亞太區（日本除外）客户投資解決方案負責人克里斯托弗·漢密爾頓表示。“如果能夠為這種關係帶來更多的確定性並降低風險溢價，這最終將對中國股票非常有利。” BLOOMBERG</p>
<p>解碼亞洲通訊：您在新的全球秩序中導航亞洲的指南。點擊此處註冊以獲取解碼亞洲通訊。送達您的郵箱。免費。</p>

滬深300

深證成指

上證指數

A華夏人民幣

A博時人民幣-R

A華夏人民幣-R

A惠理人民幣

<p>中國投資者對即將舉行的習近平與唐納德·特朗普峯會持樂觀態度，希望此次峯會能夠維持當前的貿易緩和局面，從而支持股市和人民幣。市場分析師並不期待重大突破，但專注於避免重新緊張局勢。人民幣已經走強，投資者更傾向於對中國資產進行戰術性押注。此次峯會可能會達成一些小協議，儘管市場表現良好，但仍然容易受到負面意外的影響。總體而言，此次會議被視為減少地緣政治不確定性並提振中國股市的機會</p>

<p>[HONG KONG] China investors are counting on the summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump to deliver just enough to sustain the detente trade underpinning stocks and the yuan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[香港] 中國投資者寄希望於習近平與唐納德·特朗普之間的峯會能夠提供足夠的支持，以維持支撐股市和人民幣的緩和貿易關係。</p>
</div><p>Rather than betting on a sweeping reset in relations, market watchers are focused on whether the two leaders can avoid renewed friction on trade, technology and geopolitics. Even without major breakthroughs on those key issues, a broadly constructive outcome is seen keeping the positive market sentiment intact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場觀察者並不寄希望於關係的全面重置，而是關注兩位領導人能否避免在貿易、技術和地緣政治方面的重新摩擦。即使在這些關鍵問題上沒有重大突破，廣泛的建設性結果也被認為能夠保持積極的市場情緒。</p>
</div><p>Such cautious optimism has investors choosing tactical rather than structural bets on Chinese assets, which have gained since the two sides reached a trade truce in South Korea last October. Staying long the yuan and selectively buying stocks poised to benefit from currency stability, export resilience, domestic technology investment and demand for artificial intelligence are among the favoured trades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種謹慎的樂觀情緒使得投資者選擇在中國資產上進行戰術性而非結構性的投資，自去年十月雙方在韓國達成貿易休戰以來，這些資產已經上漲。繼續看漲人民幣，並選擇性購買那些有望受益於貨幣穩定、出口韌性、國內技術投資和對人工智能需求的股票，是投資者偏好的交易。</p>
</div><p>“The ideal scenario would be the status quo to continue,” said Tai Hui, chief market strategist for Asia-Pacific at JPMorgan Asset Management in Hong Kong. “Tariffs and trade tensions have taken a backseat on investors’ minds for now, given the supply risk to energy and petrochemicals.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“理想的情況是現狀能夠持續，” 摩根大通亞太區首席市場策略師邰輝在香港表示。“考慮到能源和石化的供應風險，關税和貿易緊張局勢目前在投資者心中已處於次要地位。”</p>
</div><p>Trump’s arrival will mark the first visit by a sitting US president to China in nearly a decade. Policy experts do not anticipate major agreements to come out of the two-day meeting, which has been rescheduled once as Trump focused on the conflict with Iran. However, it may produce deals at the margins, such as Chinese purchases of additional US soybeans or Boeing planes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普的到訪將標誌着近十年來現任美國總統首次訪問中國。政策專家預計此次為期兩天的會議不會達成重大協議，此次會議曾因特朗普專注於與伊朗的衝突而推遲。然而，它可能會在邊緣上達成一些交易，例如中國額外購買美國大豆或波音飛機。</p>
</div><p>China’s markets have had a good run ahead of the event, suggesting investors see little risk of a sharp deterioration in ties between the world’s two largest economies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在此次事件之前，中國市場表現良好，表明投資者認為世界兩大經濟體之間的關係不會急劇惡化。</p>
</div><h3>Navigate Asia in  a new global order</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>在新的全球秩序中導航亞洲</h3>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>獲取洞察，送達您的郵箱。</p>
</div><p>Up about 1.7 per cent, the onshore yuan is Asia’s top-performing currency against the US dollar over the past three months, and is trading at its highest level since early 2023. It has been buoyed by improving US-China ties and weakness in the greenback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去三個月中，人民幣在岸匯率上漲約 1.7%，成為亞洲對美元表現最佳的貨幣，目前交易價格為 2023 年初以來的最高水平。人民幣的上漲得益於中美關係的改善以及美元的疲軟。</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs expects the currency to keep rising over the coming year, arguing that it is more than 20 per cent undervalued. The yuan remains well below levels justified by China’s export strength and external surplus, strategists including Kamakshya Trivedi wrote in a May 8 report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛預計人民幣在未來一年將繼續上漲，認為其被低估超過 20%。包括卡馬克夏·特里維迪在內的策略師在 5 月 8 日的報告中指出，人民幣仍遠低於中國出口實力和外部盈餘所合理化的水平。</p>
</div><h2>‘Risk premium’</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>‘風險溢價’</h2>
</div><p>The Iran war is expected to be high on the agenda. The US and China both want to see the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil and gas flows passed before the conflict. The key question for Beijing is whether it’s prepared to put pressure on Teheran, and what quid pro quo it would seek from Washington in return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗戰爭預計將成為議程的重點。美國和中國都希望看到霍爾木茲海峽的重新開放，衝突之前全球五分之一的石油和天然氣流經該海峽。對北京來説，關鍵問題是它是否準備對德黑蘭施加壓力，以及它希望從華盛頓獲得什麼作為回報。</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另見</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/3620faa95394f0fcd89c5764758f0d575951bfb4c55690f061564f2a6b7534d4/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/3620faa95394f0fcd89c5764758f0d575951bfb4c55690f061564f2a6b7534d4?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>US industry, lawmakers plead with Trump: Don’t open door to Chinese cars at upcoming Xi summit</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美國工業界和立法者懇請特朗普：在即將舉行的習近平峯會上不要向中國汽車打開大門</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/2516c07c18ead2239f64043bd157c9b8766ebfe30a249ffa3d76a349fde3c23a/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/2516c07c18ead2239f64043bd157c9b8766ebfe30a249ffa3d76a349fde3c23a?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>China confirms Xi-Trump summit that was delayed by Iran war</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>中國確認習近平 - 特朗普峯會因伊朗戰爭而推遲</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/4f794b55741dccbd62dcf3de2a47bab4618ae80126ca610e5705fcc71c6bbcec/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/4f794b55741dccbd62dcf3de2a47bab4618ae80126ca610e5705fcc71c6bbcec?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Trump aims to press Xi over China’s approach to war in Iran at upcoming summit</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>特朗普計劃在即將舉行的峯會上向習近平施壓，要求中國對伊朗戰爭採取立場</h3>
</div><p>“If the 2025 Busan summit is any guide, the engagement could help catalyse RMB appreciation and a risk-on equity rally should Middle East tensions de-escalate,” Citigroup economists Xiangrong Yu and Xinyu Ji wrote in a note. “We expect the economic agenda should reinforce short-term stabilisation in bilateral relations, but not reverse structural headwinds.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果 2025 年釜山峯會可以作為參考，那麼此次接觸可能會促進人民幣升值，並在中東緊張局勢緩解的情況下引發風險偏好的股票反彈，” 花旗經濟學家餘向榮和季新宇在一份報告中寫道。“我們預計經濟議程將強化雙邊關係的短期穩定，但不會逆轉結構性阻力。”</p>
</div><p>Broadly, Xi and Trump are expected to seek an extension to their trade truce. Markets do remain vulnerable to any negative surprises, with a setback in talks likely to reverse sentiment and erode recent gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，習近平和特朗普預計將尋求延長貿易休戰。市場仍然容易受到任何負面意外的影響，談判的挫折可能會逆轉情緒並侵蝕近期的收益。</p>
</div><p>That said, Goldman’s equity strategists predict stocks could see near-term upside as investor expectations stay low ahead of the summit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，高盛的股票策略師預測，由於投資者在峯會前的預期較低，股票可能會在短期內上漲。</p>
</div><p>The CSI 300 Index, a benchmark of onshore shares, jumped 1.6 per cent on Monday. The measure is up about 11 per cent so far this quarter, though it has lagged the broader Asian benchmark that’s been boosted by a surge in tech stocks in South Korea and Taiwan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>滬深 300 指數作為在岸股票的基準，週一上漲 1.6%。該指數在本季度迄今上漲約 11%，儘管它落後於因韓國和台灣科技股激增而受到提振的更廣泛的亞洲基準。</p>
</div><p>“What that summit can do is it can compress some of the uncertainty premium that continually persists between the US and China from a geopolitical perspective,” said Christopher Hamilton, head of client investment solutions for Asia-Pacific ex-Japan at Invesco. “If you can bring a little bit more certainty to that relationship and drive that risk premium down, that’s ultimately going to be very positive for Chinese equities.” BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“此次峯會能夠做的就是壓縮美國和中國之間從地緣政治角度持續存在的不確定性溢價，” 景順亞太區（日本除外）客户投資解決方案負責人克里斯托弗·漢密爾頓表示。“如果能夠為這種關係帶來更多的確定性並降低風險溢價，這最終將對中國股票非常有利。” BLOOMBERG</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>解碼亞洲通訊：您在新的全球秩序中導航亞洲的指南。點擊此處註冊以獲取解碼亞洲通訊。送達您的郵箱。免費。</p>
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China investors bet Xi-Trump meet to extend trade-detente rally

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中國投資者押注習近平與特朗普的會晤將延續貿易緩和的行情