<p>該行業正面臨專利懸崖危機，預計每年全球銷售額有 2000 億至 4000 億美元的風險。</p>
<p>在 2025 年至 2030 年之間，數百種藥物的專利，包括 69 種重磅藥物，將到期，這將加速仿製藥和生物類似藥的大規模進入。</p>
<p>顯而易見的威脅是收入，一些品牌在專利到期後的第一年市場份額下降超過 80%，但除了失去獨佔性外，製藥公司還面臨一個不那麼明顯的挑戰。隨着前所未有的專利懸崖逼近，生物製藥組織正在經歷壓力測試，衡量其跨職能團隊理解、解讀和應對日益複雜因素的能力，因為新資產被引入市場。</p>
<p>與此同時，創新管道變得更加擁擠，特別是在腫瘤學、炎症和神經學領域，競爭加劇，差異化變得更難維持。科學實力仍然至關重要，但僅靠這一點是不夠的。將創新轉化為有意義的影響，確保療法被患者、提供者和醫療系統理解、採用和重視，才是真正推動銷售峯值的動力。</p>
<p>許多組織缺乏對外部環境的清晰共同理解，這妨礙了有效的商業化戰略發展。儘管獲得數據的機會前所未有，但對患者重要時刻、影響利益相關者決策的動態以及定義真正優勢的競爭環境的洞察往往有限。</p>
<p>這是專利懸崖危機所暴露的更深層次問題：一個充滿數據豐富但往往洞察貧乏的組織的行業。組織內部協調一致，但在外部現實中缺乏足夠的錨定，以確保新資產以正確的形態出現在一個接受的市場中。</p>
<p>患者體驗就是一個典型例子，數據豐富但洞察貧乏的方法變得問題重重。理解患者體驗往往被視為一種映射練習，而不是揭示真實洞察的手段。不同職能構建了不同版本的患者旅程，這些版本受到各自數據、優先事項和假設的影響。</p>
<p>結果並不是信息的缺乏，而是對真正重要事物缺乏清晰認識。</p>
<p>組織可能詳細瞭解臨牀表現，但對決策實際發生的地方、驅動行為變化的因素以及未滿足需求在現實世界中的體驗缺乏可見性。至關重要的是，他們常常錯過情感、實際限制和臨牀需求交匯的點，這些點塑造了行動。</p>
<p>這些是重要時刻；患者體驗直接影響結果的拐點。它們並不總是顯而易見，也很少整齊地位於單一職能的視野中。然而，正是在這裏，真正的機會存在於理解患者的感受，以及這些感受所促成或阻礙的事情。</p>
<p>如果沒有對這些時刻的共同、深刻的理解，戰略就有可能在內部一致但在外部不協調。生物製藥組織優化共識而非清晰，強化假設而不是挑戰它們。在一個差異化依賴於相關性的市場中，這種缺乏清晰度迅速成為一個關鍵脆弱點。</p>
<p>當組織努力識別重要時刻時，他們也可能難以理解塑造其市場的力量以及真正的增長槓桿所在。醫療決策受到激勵、利益相關者動態和新興趨勢的複雜相互作用的影響，但這些力量往往只被部分理解。</p>
<p>一個持續的挑戰是缺乏經濟清晰度，因為關於投資方向或如何推動增長的決策常常基於假設，而沒有充分理解激勵結構如何影響患者路徑中的行為。這些動態的小變化可以顯著增加接觸到的患者數量或每位患者所代表的價值，但沒有清晰的視角，這些機會仍然隱藏。</p>
<p>利益相關者參與呈現出類似的挑戰。組織可能識別出重要人物，但對誰塑造他們的思維及其程度缺乏更深的理解。影響力很少是明確或均勻分佈的，如果沒有準確映射這些動態，參與的努力可能會失去目標。</p>
<p>與此同時，市場數據的數量持續增長，使得更難區分具有真正戰略意義的信號與無關的噪音。如果沒有對這些力量的嚴格、外部基礎的理解，組織可能會做出自信的決策，但不一定是正確的決策。</p>
<p>組織如何解讀競爭環境使得不完整洞察的成本更加明顯。隨着獨佔性喪失，生物類似藥和新進入者重塑既有市場，競爭環境既在加劇又在不斷重繪。</p>
<p>然而，許多組織仍然依賴靜態或表層的競爭視圖。對當前競爭對手可能有清晰的理解，但對真正的臨牀差異化存在的地方、如何轉化為引人注目的價值故事以及定位真正強勢與假設中更脆弱的地方缺乏清晰度。</p>
<p>更有效的方法需要對競爭環境進行誠實評估，超越產品比較，審視創新如何改變整個格局。競爭對手的技術、新興模式和不斷演變的護理標準都有可能重新定義優勢的樣子，關鍵問題仍然是競爭基礎如何變化，以及這些變化是否代表着向前邁進的機會或需要超越的干擾。</p>
<p>競爭洞察往往孤立存在，與更廣泛的戰略思維脱節。但在一個快速變化和壓力不斷增加的市場中，它不僅僅需要提供信息；還必須推動行動，從而轉化為真正的競爭優勢。</p>
<p>隨着專利懸崖加速對整個行業的壓力，它對各個組織的影響並不相同。區分因素不在於誰擁有最多的數據，甚至不是誰擁有最強的資產，而在於誰對其所處市場有最清晰、最持續更新的理解。</p>
<p>縮小洞察差距成為戰略上的必要舉措，因為這要求組織超越內部共識的建立，朝着一個共享的、以外部為基礎的現實觀邁進；這個現實觀反映了患者如何體驗疾病、提供者如何做出決策、支付方如何評估價值，以及競爭動態在現實世界中如何演變。</p>
<p>這種轉變不僅僅是改善各職能之間的協調，儘管這也是一個重要部分，而是關於改變協調形成的基礎。組織必須學會將決策錨定在對外部真相的共同解讀上，並不斷挑戰這種解讀是否仍然成立。</p>
<p>這不僅需要文化上的轉變，還需要操作上的轉變，打破孤島，創造共享的洞察可見性，並賦權團隊質疑假設。它還要求將戰略視為一種動態能力，而不是靜態的產出，隨着市場的變化而不斷演變。</p>
<p>最終，能夠更快、更自信地將洞察轉化為行動的組織，將是那些在專利懸崖中處於最佳位置的組織。在一個由複雜性和變化定義的環境中，更好的洞察將是競爭優勢的基礎。</p>

生物科技 ETF - VanEck Vectors

國泰中證生物醫藥ETF

華安恆生生物科技ETF

<p>生物製藥行業面臨專利懸崖危機，預計在 2025 年至 2030 年間，眾多暢銷藥物的專利到期將導致每年 2000 億至 4000 億美元的銷售風險。這種情況威脅到收入，並在理解市場動態和患者體驗方面帶來挑戰。儘管組織擁有豐富的數據，但往往缺乏可操作的洞察，導致戰略不匹配。醫療決策和利益相關者參與的複雜性進一步使增長機會變得複雜。隨着仿製藥和生物類似藥的進入競爭加劇，公司必須更清晰地瞭解競爭格局，以有效應對這些挑戰</p>

<p>The industry is approaching a patent cliff crisis, with an estimated $200–$400 billion in annual global sales at risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該行業正面臨專利懸崖危機，預計每年全球銷售額有 2000 億至 4000 億美元的風險。</p>
</div><p>Between 2025 and 2030, patents on hundreds of medicines, including 69 blockbuster drugs, are set to expire, accelerating the entry of generics and biosimilars at scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年至 2030 年之間，數百種藥物的專利，包括 69 種重磅藥物，將到期，這將加速仿製藥和生物類似藥的大規模進入。</p>
</div><p>The obvious threat is to revenue, with some brands losing more than 80% of market share in their first-year post-expiry, but beyond loss of exclusivity, drug companies are facing a less obvious challenge. With an unprecedented amount of patent cliffs looming, biopharma organizations are facing a stress test, measuring the effects their cross-functional teams can understand, interpret, and respond to increasingly complex factors, as new assets are introduced to market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>顯而易見的威脅是收入，一些品牌在專利到期後的第一年市場份額下降超過 80%，但除了失去獨佔性外，製藥公司還面臨一個不那麼明顯的挑戰。隨着前所未有的專利懸崖逼近，生物製藥組織正在經歷壓力測試，衡量其跨職能團隊理解、解讀和應對日益複雜因素的能力，因為新資產被引入市場。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, innovation pipelines are becoming more crowded, particularly in oncology, inflammation, and neurology, as intensifying competition and differentiation become harder to sustain. Scientific clout continues to remain essential, but it’s not sufficient on its own. The ability to translate innovation into meaningful impact, ensuring therapies are understood, adopted, and valued by patients, providers, and healthcare systems, is the real driving force on the road to peak sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，創新管道變得更加擁擠，特別是在腫瘤學、炎症和神經學領域，競爭加劇，差異化變得更難維持。科學實力仍然至關重要，但僅靠這一點是不夠的。將創新轉化為有意義的影響，確保療法被患者、提供者和醫療系統理解、採用和重視，才是真正推動銷售峯值的動力。</p>
</div><p>Many organizations lack a clear shared understanding of the external landscape, which compromises effective commercialisation strategy development. Despite unprecedented access to data, there is often limited insight into the moments that matter to patients, the dynamics shaping stakeholder decisions, and the competitive landscape that defines where real advantage lies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多組織缺乏對外部環境的清晰共同理解，這妨礙了有效的商業化戰略發展。儘管獲得數據的機會前所未有，但對患者重要時刻、影響利益相關者決策的動態以及定義真正優勢的競爭環境的洞察往往有限。</p>
</div><p>This is the deeper issue laid bare by the patent cliff crisis: an industry full of organizations that are data-rich but often insight-poor. Organizations that are internally aligned but insufficiently anchored in external reality to ensure new assets show up in the right shape and to a receptive market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是專利懸崖危機所暴露的更深層次問題：一個充滿數據豐富但往往洞察貧乏的組織的行業。組織內部協調一致，但在外部現實中缺乏足夠的錨定，以確保新資產以正確的形態出現在一個接受的市場中。</p>
</div><p>The patient experience is a prime example of where the data-rich and insight-poor approach becomes problematic. Too often, understanding the patient experience is approached as a mapping exercise rather than a means of uncovering real insight. Different functions build different versions of the patient journey, shaped by their own data, priorities, and assumptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>患者體驗就是一個典型例子，數據豐富但洞察貧乏的方法變得問題重重。理解患者體驗往往被視為一種映射練習，而不是揭示真實洞察的手段。不同職能構建了不同版本的患者旅程，這些版本受到各自數據、優先事項和假設的影響。</p>
</div><p>The result is not a lack of information, but a lack of clarity about what truly matters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>結果並不是信息的缺乏，而是對真正重要事物缺乏清晰認識。</p>
</div><p>Organizations may understand clinical performance in detail, yet lack visibility on where decisions are actually made, what drives behaviour change, and how unmet needs are experienced in real-world settings. Crucially, they often miss the points where emotion, practical constraint, and clinical need intersect to shape action.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>組織可能詳細瞭解臨牀表現，但對決策實際發生的地方、驅動行為變化的因素以及未滿足需求在現實世界中的體驗缺乏可見性。至關重要的是，他們常常錯過情感、實際限制和臨牀需求交匯的點，這些點塑造了行動。</p>
</div><p>These are the moments that matter; the inflection points where patient experience directly influences outcomes. They’re not always obvious, and they rarely sit neatly within a single function’s view of the world. Yet it’s here that real opportunity exists to understand how patients feel, and crucially, what those feelings enable or prevent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些是重要時刻；患者體驗直接影響結果的拐點。它們並不總是顯而易見，也很少整齊地位於單一職能的視野中。然而，正是在這裏，真正的機會存在於理解患者的感受，以及這些感受所促成或阻礙的事情。</p>
</div><p>Without a shared, deeply grounded view of these moments, strategy risks becoming internally coherent but externally misaligned. Biopharma organizations optimise for consensus rather than clarity, reinforcing assumptions instead of challenging them. In a market where differentiation depends on relevance, that lack of clarity quickly becomes a critical vulnerability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果沒有對這些時刻的共同、深刻的理解，戰略就有可能在內部一致但在外部不協調。生物製藥組織優化共識而非清晰，強化假設而不是挑戰它們。在一個差異化依賴於相關性的市場中，這種缺乏清晰度迅速成為一個關鍵脆弱點。</p>
</div><p>As organizations struggle to see the moments that matter, they can also struggle to understand the forces shaping their market and where the real levers for growth truly sit. Healthcare decision-making is shaped by a complex interplay of incentives, stakeholder dynamics, and emerging trends, yet these forces are often only partially understood.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當組織努力識別重要時刻時，他們也可能難以理解塑造其市場的力量以及真正的增長槓桿所在。醫療決策受到激勵、利益相關者動態和新興趨勢的複雜相互作用的影響，但這些力量往往只被部分理解。</p>
</div><p>A persistent challenge is the lack of economic clarity, as decisions about where to invest or how to drive growth are frequently made on assumption, without fully understanding how incentive structures influence behaviour across the patient pathway. Small shifts in these dynamics can meaningfully increase the number of patients reached or the value each patient represents but without a clear view, those opportunities remain hidden.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個持續的挑戰是缺乏經濟清晰度，因為關於投資方向或如何推動增長的決策常常基於假設，而沒有充分理解激勵結構如何影響患者路徑中的行為。這些動態的小變化可以顯著增加接觸到的患者數量或每位患者所代表的價值，但沒有清晰的視角，這些機會仍然隱藏。</p>
</div><p>Stakeholder engagement presents a similar challenge. Organizations may identify who matters but can lack a deeper understanding of who shapes their thinking and to what degree. Influence is rarely explicit or evenly distributed, and without accurately mapping these dynamics, efforts to engage can miss their mark.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利益相關者參與呈現出類似的挑戰。組織可能識別出重要人物，但對誰塑造他們的思維及其程度缺乏更深的理解。影響力很少是明確或均勻分佈的，如果沒有準確映射這些動態，參與的努力可能會失去目標。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the volume of market data continues to grow, making it harder to distinguish between the signals that carry genuine strategic consequence from the noise that does not. Without a rigorous, externally grounded understanding of these forces, organizations risk making confident decisions but not necessarily the right ones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，市場數據的數量持續增長，使得更難區分具有真正戰略意義的信號與無關的噪音。如果沒有對這些力量的嚴格、外部基礎的理解，組織可能會做出自信的決策，但不一定是正確的決策。</p>
</div><p>How organizations interpret the competitive landscape has made the cost of incomplete insight more visible. As exclusivity is lost and biosimilars and new entrants reshape established markets, the competitive environment is both intensifying and being constantly redrawn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>組織如何解讀競爭環境使得不完整洞察的成本更加明顯。隨着獨佔性喪失，生物類似藥和新進入者重塑既有市場，競爭環境既在加劇又在不斷重繪。</p>
</div><p>Yet many organizations still rely on static or surface-level views of competition. There may be a clear understanding of current rivals, but less clarity on where true clinical differentiation exists, how it translates into a compelling value story, and where positioning is genuinely strong versus where it is more vulnerable than assumed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，許多組織仍然依賴靜態或表層的競爭視圖。對當前競爭對手可能有清晰的理解，但對真正的臨牀差異化存在的地方、如何轉化為引人注目的價值故事以及定位真正強勢與假設中更脆弱的地方缺乏清晰度。</p>
</div><p>A more effective approach requires an honest assessment of the competitive environment, one that goes beyond product comparisons to examine how innovation is shifting the landscape itself. Competitor technologies, emerging modalities, and evolving standards of care all have the potential to redefine what advantage looks like and the critical question remains how the basis of competition is changing, and whether those changes represent an opening to move toward or a disruption to get ahead of.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更有效的方法需要對競爭環境進行誠實評估，超越產品比較，審視創新如何改變整個格局。競爭對手的技術、新興模式和不斷演變的護理標準都有可能重新定義優勢的樣子，關鍵問題仍然是競爭基礎如何變化，以及這些變化是否代表着向前邁進的機會或需要超越的干擾。</p>
</div><p>Too often, competitive insight sits in isolation, disconnected from broader strategic thinking. But in a market shaped by rapid change and increasing pressure, it must do more than inform; it must drive action that translates into genuine competitive advantage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>競爭洞察往往孤立存在，與更廣泛的戰略思維脱節。但在一個快速變化和壓力不斷增加的市場中，它不僅僅需要提供信息；還必須推動行動，從而轉化為真正的競爭優勢。</p>
</div><p>As the patent cliff accelerates pressure across the industry, it will not impact all organizations equally. The differentiator will not be who has the most data, or even who has the strongest assets, but who has the clearest, most continuously updated understanding of the market they’re operating in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着專利懸崖加速對整個行業的壓力，它對各個組織的影響並不相同。區分因素不在於誰擁有最多的數據，甚至不是誰擁有最強的資產，而在於誰對其所處市場有最清晰、最持續更新的理解。</p>
</div><p>Closing the insight gap becomes a strategic imperative, as it requires organizations to move beyond internal consensus-building and toward a shared, externally grounded view of reality; one that reflects how patients experience disease, how providers make decisions, how payers assess value, and how competitive dynamics are evolving in the real world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>縮小洞察差距成為戰略上的必要舉措，因為這要求組織超越內部共識的建立，朝着一個共享的、以外部為基礎的現實觀邁進；這個現實觀反映了患者如何體驗疾病、提供者如何做出決策、支付方如何評估價值，以及競爭動態在現實世界中如何演變。</p>
</div><p>This shift is not simply about improving alignment across functions, although that’s a big part of it, rather it’s about changing the basis on which alignment is formed. Instead of reconciling different internal perspectives, organizations must learn to anchor decisions in a common interpretation of external truth and continuously challenge whether that interpretation still holds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種轉變不僅僅是改善各職能之間的協調，儘管這也是一個重要部分，而是關於改變協調形成的基礎。組織必須學會將決策錨定在對外部真相的共同解讀上，並不斷挑戰這種解讀是否仍然成立。</p>
</div><p>That demands a cultural, as well as operational, shift breaking down silos, creating shared visibility of insight, and empowering teams to interrogate assumptions. It also requires treating strategy not as a static output, but as a living capability that evolves alongside the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這不僅需要文化上的轉變，還需要操作上的轉變，打破孤島，創造共享的洞察可見性，並賦權團隊質疑假設。它還要求將戰略視為一種動態能力，而不是靜態的產出，隨着市場的變化而不斷演變。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, the organizations best positioned to navigate the patent cliff will be those that can turn insight into action faster, and with greater confidence. In an environment defined by complexity and change, better insight will be the foundation of competitive advantage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，能夠更快、更自信地將洞察轉化為行動的組織，將是那些在專利懸崖中處於最佳位置的組織。在一個由複雜性和變化定義的環境中，更好的洞察將是競爭優勢的基礎。</p>
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洞察差距：生物製藥在面對專利懸崖競賽時的隱藏風險