<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/01/AI-image-showing-copper-and-aluminium-bars-in-a-warehouse.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/01/AI-image-showing-copper-and-aluminium-bars-in-a-warehouse.jpg"/></p>
<p>歐洲鋁生產商正準備迎接成本的急劇上升，因為歐盟準備對其排放交易系統（EU ETS）進行改革。</p>
<p>這項改革旨在給予企業更多時間進行脱碳，包括對決定碳配額免費分配的基準值進行調整。</p>
<p>根據 Commerzbank AG 的外匯和商品分析師 Norman Liebke 的説法，新的基準方法對回收商和精煉商構成了嚴重威脅。</p>
<h2>鋁生產商在 EU ETS 改革下面臨更高成本</h2>
<p>“鋁回收或鋁土礦精煉沒有設定具體的產品基準值，因此使用了所謂的替代基準值，” Liebke 解釋道。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>這些替代基準值在 2026 年至 2030 年期間將比 2021 年至 2025 年的值減少 34%，這將要求回收商和精煉廠購買更多的配額。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>行業協會歐洲鋁業警告稱，這些變化可能會削弱競爭力。</p>
<p>鋁價是全球設定的，這意味着生產商無法簡單地將更高的成本轉嫁給客户。</p>
<p>Liebke 指出，盈利能力可能會 “受到重大影響”，尤其是回收行業可能面臨被擠壓的風險。</p>
<p>改革還修訂了提名區塊的特許權框架，並計劃設立脱碳基金以及調整市場穩定儲備。</p>
<p>雖然歐盟打算緩解向更綠色生產的過渡，但行業聲音認為，意想不到的後果可能會削弱歐洲的回收行業，而這對該地區的氣候目標至關重要。</p>
<h2>銅價無視地緣政治不確定性</h2>
<p>與鋁的政策驅動挑戰相比，銅市場在持續的地緣政治風險中仍然飆升至創紀錄高位。</p>
<p>價格距離 1 月份的日內紀錄僅差 500 美元，受到金融市場強勁投資者需求的推動。</p>
<p>Commerzbank AG 外匯和商品研究負責人 Thu Lan Nguyen 表示，這一反彈反映了人們對伊朗衝突經濟影響將保持有限的信心——至少如果和平談判最終重新開啓霍爾木茲海峽的話。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>最近幾周在廣泛金融市場上看到的復甦表明，市場目前僅擔心來自中東持續危機的有限經濟影響。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>在美國總統唐納德·特朗普拒絕德黑蘭最新提案後，油價再次上漲，但銅價依然保持韌性。</p>
<p>然而，Nguyen 警告稱，“封鎖持續的時間越長，對全球經濟的影響可能越嚴重，這意味着不應低估回調的風險。”</p>
<h2>供應因素提供支持</h2>
<p>除了地緣政治，供應方面的發展也在支撐銅價。</p>
<p>中國 4 月份的貿易數據顯示銅礦石進口放緩，引發了對全球最大生產國生產活力不足的擔憂。</p>
<p>Nguyen 指出，霍爾木茲海峽的封鎖限制了硫酸的供應，而硫酸是銅礦開採的關鍵原料。“這反過來可能加劇銅礦石的短缺，” 她説。</p>
<p>供應受限與電氣化和可再生能源項目的強勁需求相結合，進一步鞏固了銅的看漲前景。</p>
<p>交易員們押注基本面將超過地緣政治風險，至少在短期內如此。</p>
<h2>商品前景分化</h2>
<p>Commerzbank 的更新突顯了歐洲商品市場的顯著分化。</p>
<p>鋁生產商面臨日益增加的監管成本，這可能侵蝕盈利能力並削弱回收，而銅市場則因結構性需求和供應限制而持續上漲，即使地緣政治風險依然存在。</p>
<p>Liebke 警告稱，EU ETS 改革可能 “威脅到歐洲鋁生產商，特別是回收商的競爭力”，而 Nguyen 強調，如果中東衝突持續，銅的反彈也並非沒有回調的風險。</p>
<p>他們的分析共同強調了當今商品市場的複雜性：政策改革和地緣政治衝擊正在重塑基本面，但投資者情緒和結構性需求仍在推動金屬市場的不同結果。</p>
<p>鋁回收商警告 EU ETS 影響，銅價接近紀錄高位的文章最初發布在 Invezz 上。</p>

COPP

銅礦 ETF - GlobalX

金屬採礦 ETF - SPDR

德銀基礎金屬 ETF - PowerShares

COPJ

ICOP

ALUM

KEUA

美國銅指數基金 - Concierge Technologies

全球金屬和採礦生產商 MSCI ETF - iShares

<p>歐洲鋁生產商正面臨因歐盟對其排放交易系統（EU ETS）進行改革而導致的成本增加，這對回收商和精煉商構成威脅。新的基準方法缺乏鋁回收的具體數值，導致所需的碳配額大幅上升。與此同時，銅價接近歷史高位，受到強勁需求和供應限制的推動，儘管地緣政治不確定性依然存在。分析師指出，商品市場的對比十分明顯，鋁的盈利能力面臨風險，而銅則受益於強勁的市場條件</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/01/AI-image-showing-copper-and-aluminium-bars-in-a-warehouse.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/01/AI-image-showing-copper-and-aluminium-bars-in-a-warehouse.jpg"/></p>
<p>European aluminium producers are bracing for a sharp rise in costs as the European Union prepares to overhaul its Emissions Trading System (EU ETS).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐洲鋁生產商正準備迎接成本的急劇上升，因為歐盟準備對其排放交易系統（EU ETS）進行改革。</p>
</div><p>The reform, designed to give companies more time to decarbonise, includes changes to benchmark values that determine the free allocation of carbon allowances.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這項改革旨在給予企業更多時間進行脱碳，包括對決定碳配額免費分配的基準值進行調整。</p>
</div><p>According to Norman Liebke, FX and commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, the new benchmark methodology poses a serious threat to recyclers and refiners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Commerzbank AG 的外匯和商品分析師 Norman Liebke 的説法，新的基準方法對回收商和精煉商構成了嚴重威脅。</p>
</div><h2>Aluminium producers face higher costs under EU ETS reform</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>鋁生產商在 EU ETS 改革下面臨更高成本</h2>
</div><p>“No specific product benchmark values are set for aluminium recycling or alumina refining, meaning so‑called fallback benchmark values are used,” Liebke explained.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“鋁回收或鋁土礦精煉沒有設定具體的產品基準值，因此使用了所謂的替代基準值，” Liebke 解釋道。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>These are set to decrease by 34% for the 2026–2030 period compared to the 2021–2025 values, which would require recyclers and refineries to purchase significantly more allowances.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>這些替代基準值在 2026 年至 2030 年期間將比 2021 年至 2025 年的值減少 34%，這將要求回收商和精煉廠購買更多的配額。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>European Aluminium, the industry association, warned that the changes could undermine competitiveness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>行業協會歐洲鋁業警告稱，這些變化可能會削弱競爭力。</p>
</div><p>Aluminium prices are set globally, meaning producers cannot simply pass on higher costs to customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋁價是全球設定的，這意味着生產商無法簡單地將更高的成本轉嫁給客户。</p>
</div><p>Liebke noted that profitability could be “massively impacted,” with recycling in particular at risk of being squeezed out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Liebke 指出，盈利能力可能會 “受到重大影響”，尤其是回收行業可能面臨被擠壓的風險。</p>
</div><p>The reform also revises royalty frameworks for nomination blocks, alongside plans for a decarbonisation fund and adjustments to the market stability reserve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>改革還修訂了提名區塊的特許權框架，並計劃設立脱碳基金以及調整市場穩定儲備。</p>
</div><p>While the EU intends to ease the transition toward greener production, industry voices argue that the unintended consequence may be to weaken Europe’s recycling sector, which is central to the bloc’s climate ambitions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然歐盟打算緩解向更綠色生產的過渡，但行業聲音認為，意想不到的後果可能會削弱歐洲的回收行業，而這對該地區的氣候目標至關重要。</p>
</div><h2>Copper shrugs off geopolitical uncertainty</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>銅價無視地緣政治不確定性</h2>
</div><p>In contrast to aluminium’s policy‑driven challenges, copper markets are surging toward record highs despite ongoing geopolitical risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與鋁的政策驅動挑戰相比，銅市場在持續的地緣政治風險中仍然飆升至創紀錄高位。</p>
</div><p>Prices came within $500 of January’s intraday record, buoyed by strong investor appetite across financial markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>價格距離 1 月份的日內紀錄僅差 500 美元，受到金融市場強勁投資者需求的推動。</p>
</div><p>Thu Lan Nguyen, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank AG, said the rally reflects confidence that the economic fallout from the Iran conflict will remain limited — at least if peace talks eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Commerzbank AG 外匯和商品研究負責人 Thu Lan Nguyen 表示，這一反彈反映了人們對伊朗衝突經濟影響將保持有限的信心——至少如果和平談判最終重新開啓霍爾木茲海峽的話。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>The recovery seen in recent weeks across a wide range of financial markets has shown that the market currently fears only limited economic repercussions from the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>最近幾周在廣泛金融市場上看到的復甦表明，市場目前僅擔心來自中東持續危機的有限經濟影響。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Oil prices have risen again after US President Donald Trump rejected Tehran’s latest proposal, but copper has remained resilient.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美國總統唐納德·特朗普拒絕德黑蘭最新提案後，油價再次上漲，但銅價依然保持韌性。</p>
</div><p>Nguyen cautioned, however, that “the longer the blockade lasts, the more severe the impact on the global economy is likely to be, meaning that the risk of setbacks should not be underestimated.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Nguyen 警告稱，“封鎖持續的時間越長，對全球經濟的影響可能越嚴重，這意味着不應低估回調的風險。”</p>
</div><h2>Supply factors add support</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>供應因素提供支持</h2>
</div><p>Beyond geopolitics, supply‑side developments are also supporting copper prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了地緣政治，供應方面的發展也在支撐銅價。</p>
</div><p>Chinese trade data for April showed a slowdown in copper ore imports, raising concerns about less dynamic production in the world’s largest producer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國 4 月份的貿易數據顯示銅礦石進口放緩，引發了對全球最大生產國生產活力不足的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>Nguyen pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz blockade is limiting the supply of sulfuric acid, a key input in copper ore mining. “This, in turn, could exacerbate the shortage of copper ore,” she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nguyen 指出，霍爾木茲海峽的封鎖限制了硫酸的供應，而硫酸是銅礦開採的關鍵原料。“這反過來可能加劇銅礦石的短缺，” 她説。</p>
</div><p>The combination of constrained supply and robust demand from electrification and renewable energy projects has reinforced copper’s bullish outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供應受限與電氣化和可再生能源項目的強勁需求相結合，進一步鞏固了銅的看漲前景。</p>
</div><p>Traders are betting that fundamentals will outweigh geopolitical risks, at least in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易員們押注基本面將超過地緣政治風險，至少在短期內如此。</p>
</div><h2>Diverging commodity outlooks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>商品前景分化</h2>
</div><p>The updates from Commerzbank highlight a striking divergence in Europe’s commodity landscape.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Commerzbank 的更新突顯了歐洲商品市場的顯著分化。</p>
</div><p>Aluminium producers face mounting regulatory costs that could erode profitability and weaken recycling, while copper markets are powering higher on structural demand and supply constraints, even as geopolitical risks linger.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋁生產商面臨日益增加的監管成本，這可能侵蝕盈利能力並削弱回收，而銅市場則因結構性需求和供應限制而持續上漲，即使地緣政治風險依然存在。</p>
</div><p>Liebke warned that the EU ETS reform could “threaten the competitiveness of European aluminium producers, particularly recyclers,” while Nguyen emphasised that copper’s rally is not immune to setbacks if the Middle East conflict drags on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Liebke 警告稱，EU ETS 改革可能 “威脅到歐洲鋁生產商，特別是回收商的競爭力”，而 Nguyen 強調，如果中東衝突持續，銅的反彈也並非沒有回調的風險。</p>
</div><p>Together, their analysis underscores the complexity of today’s commodity markets: policy reforms and geopolitical shocks are reshaping fundamentals, but investor sentiment and structural demand continue to drive divergent outcomes across metals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他們的分析共同強調了當今商品市場的複雜性：政策改革和地緣政治衝擊正在重塑基本面，但投資者情緒和結構性需求仍在推動金屬市場的不同結果。</p>
</div><p>The post Aluminium recyclers warn of EU ETS hit, copper nears record highs appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋁回收商警告 EU ETS 影響，銅價接近紀錄高位的文章最初發布在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

Aluminium recyclers warn of EU ETS hit, copper nears record highs

invezz

Sprott Copper Miners ETF

Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF

iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF

WisdomTree Aluminium (German Cert.)

Kraneshares European Carbon Allowance ETF

Commerzbank AG

鋁回收商警告歐盟排放交易體系可能帶來的衝擊，銅價逼近歷史高位