<p>作者：Naeem Aslam</p>
<p>市場能夠應對價格上漲。壓垮信心的是不確定性，這會抑制投資。</p>
<p>伊朗戰爭帶來的長期不確定性助長了通貨膨脹。</p>
<p>如果伊朗衝突持續，經濟後果將遠遠超出石油生產國或國防承包商。</p>
<p>隨着伊朗衝突的發展，油價成為頭條新聞。投資者密切關注原油的每一個動態、每一個軍事頭條和每一個政策制定者的評論，試圖評估能源市場是否即將經歷另一次重大沖擊。</p>
<p>但伊朗戰爭中最昂貴的部分可能並不是油價（CL.1）（BRN00）本身。</p>
<p>而是那種不確定性。市場可以吸收昂貴的能源；如果這些成本保持穩定和可預測，企業可以適應更高的燃料成本。更具破壞性的是價格劇烈波動、地緣政治風險每小時變化、企業決策者失去對未來的可見性。</p>
<p>這時，戰爭不再只是商品故事，而是經濟故事。</p>
<p>波動性比高價格更危險。</p>
<p>問題不僅僅是成本，而是信心。</p>
<p>油價穩定在每桶 100 美元左右雖然痛苦，但仍可管理：航空公司可以對沖，製造商可以規劃，物流公司可以調整合同，投資者可以預測收益。</p>
<p>但在 95 美元和 130 美元之間快速波動的市場則完全是另一個問題。這種波動性凍結了決策。</p>
<p>問題不僅僅是成本——而是信心。當企業無法以任何信心估算能源成本時，它們開始推遲資本支出、減少擴張計劃並保留現金。這種行為可能不會立即在頭條新聞中顯現，但它是長期地緣政治不穩定最昂貴的經濟後果之一。</p>
<p>不確定性的首個受害者是規劃。</p>
<p>戰爭是決策的税收。</p>
<p>市場通常關注交易者，但更重要的反應來自董事會。</p>
<p>首席執行官不會根據一個戲劇性的頭條做出長期投資決策。當不確定性持續到足以影響規劃時，他們才會作出反應。</p>
<p>如果伊朗衝突持續，經濟後果將遠遠超出石油生產國或國防承包商。航空公司面臨利潤壓力；航運公司面臨航線中斷和保險成本；製造商面臨不可預測的原材料價格；消費者企業開始重新評估需求假設。</p>
<p>戰爭是決策的税收。這種税收很少被直接衡量，但投資者通過收益增長放緩、商業信心減弱和投資活動延遲感受到其後果。</p>
<p>市場關心的是持續時間，而不僅僅是升級。</p>
<p>單一的地緣政治衝擊可以被吸收。市場所掙扎的是持續時間。</p>
<p>當前衝突中的關鍵變化不僅僅是升級本身——而是緊張局勢持續升高的可能性。這改變了經濟方程式。</p>
<p>商品價格的短期飆升會造成波動。長期的不穩定開始改變整個經濟的行為。投資者往往低估這種轉變，因為第一階段感覺可交易。第二階段則變得結構性。</p>
<p>隱藏的通貨膨脹風險並不是立刻顯現的——而是累積的。</p>
<p>大多數投資者理解戰爭會推高油價。但較少關注的是，長期的不確定性如何間接助長通貨膨脹。</p>
<p>燃料成本影響運輸；運輸影響物流；物流影響零售定價。包裝、塑料和製造成本都對持續的能源壓力作出反應。</p>
<p>通貨膨脹的影響在第一週並不總是戲劇性的——它是逐步累積的。這為已經對通貨膨脹預期、中央銀行信譽和經濟增長放緩敏感的市場創造了困難的背景。</p>
<p>投資者應關注信心，而不僅僅是原油價格。</p>
<p>如果不確定性持續，價格波動仍然劇烈，經濟損害將加劇。</p>
<p>從現在開始，關鍵指標不是油價是否再漲 5 美元或 10 美元，而是波動性是收縮還是擴張。</p>
<p>如果市場穩定，企業可以適應。如果不確定性持續，價格波動仍然劇烈，即使沒有明顯的供應衝擊，經濟損害也會加劇。戰爭最昂貴的後果往往不是能源價格本身，而是企業、投資者和消費者無法自信地定價未來。</p>
<p>這就是投資者應關注的區別。</p>
<p>Naeem Aslam 是倫敦 Zaye Capital Markets 的首席投資官。</p>
<p>更多：油價圖表呈現出 36 年來未見的模式。上次發生了什麼？</p>
<p>另請閲讀：美國的財政清算日益臨近。</p>
<p>-Naeem Aslam</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和華爾街日報獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
<p>05-12-26 1516ET</p>

英國石油

和順石油

西方石油

<p>正在進行的伊朗衝突正在給市場帶來重大不確定性，這種影響比油價上漲更具破壞性。雖然油價可以進行管理，但價格的劇烈波動會妨礙商業規劃和投資決策。長期的地緣政治不穩定會導致資本支出的延遲和商業信心的下降，影響到超出石油生產者的各個行業。投資者應關注市場波動及其對經濟行為的影響，而不僅僅是原油價格，因為由於持續的能源壓力，累積的通脹風險會隨着時間的推移而增加</p>

<p>By Naeem Aslam</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Naeem Aslam</p>
</div><p>Markets can handle rising prices. What crushes confidence is uncertainty that squelches investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場能夠應對價格上漲。壓垮信心的是不確定性，這會抑制投資。</p>
</div><p>Prolonged uncertainty from the Iran war feeds inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗戰爭帶來的長期不確定性助長了通貨膨脹。</p>
</div><p>If the Iran conflict remains prolonged, the economic consequences extend well beyond oil producers or defense contractors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果伊朗衝突持續，經濟後果將遠遠超出石油生產國或國防承包商。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices dominate the headlines as the Iran conflict unfolds. Investors watch every move in crude, every military headline and every comment from policymakers, trying to assess whether energy markets are about to experience another major shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着伊朗衝突的發展，油價成為頭條新聞。投資者密切關注原油的每一個動態、每一個軍事頭條和每一個政策制定者的評論，試圖評估能源市場是否即將經歷另一次重大沖擊。</p>
</div><p>But the most expensive part of the Iran war may not be the oil prices (CL.1) (BRN00) themselves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但伊朗戰爭中最昂貴的部分可能並不是油價（CL.1）（BRN00）本身。</p>
</div><p>It may be uncertainty. Markets can absorb expensive energy; businesses can adapt to higher fuel costs if those costs remain stable and predictable. What becomes far more damaging is an environment in which prices swing violently, geopolitical risks shift by the hour and corporate decision-makers lose visibility over what comes next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而是那種不確定性。市場可以吸收昂貴的能源；如果這些成本保持穩定和可預測，企業可以適應更高的燃料成本。更具破壞性的是價格劇烈波動、地緣政治風險每小時變化、企業決策者失去對未來的可見性。</p>
</div><p>That is when the war stops being a commodity story and becomes an economic one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這時，戰爭不再只是商品故事，而是經濟故事。</p>
</div><p>Volatility is more dangerous than high prices</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波動性比高價格更危險。</p>
</div><p>The issue is not simply cost. It is confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>問題不僅僅是成本，而是信心。</p>
</div><p>Oil stabilizing around $100 a barrel is painful but manageable: Airlines can hedge, manufacturers can plan, logistics firms can adjust contracts and investors can model earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油價穩定在每桶 100 美元左右雖然痛苦，但仍可管理：航空公司可以對沖，製造商可以規劃，物流公司可以調整合同，投資者可以預測收益。</p>
</div><p>But a market that swings rapidly between $95 and $130 creates a different problem entirely. That kind of volatility freezes decision-making.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在 95 美元和 130 美元之間快速波動的市場則完全是另一個問題。這種波動性凍結了決策。</p>
</div><p>The issue is not simply cost - it is confidence. When businesses cannot estimate energy costs with any conviction, they begin delaying capital spending, reducing expansion plans and preserving cash. That behavior may not appear immediately in headlines, but it is one of the most expensive economic consequences of prolonged geopolitical instability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>問題不僅僅是成本——而是信心。當企業無法以任何信心估算能源成本時，它們開始推遲資本支出、減少擴張計劃並保留現金。這種行為可能不會立即在頭條新聞中顯現，但它是長期地緣政治不穩定最昂貴的經濟後果之一。</p>
</div><p>The first casualty of uncertainty is planning</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不確定性的首個受害者是規劃。</p>
</div><p>War is a tax on decision-making.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>戰爭是決策的税收。</p>
</div><p>The market often focuses on traders, but the more important reaction comes from boardrooms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場通常關注交易者，但更重要的反應來自董事會。</p>
</div><p>Chief executives do not make long-term investment decisions based on one dramatic headline. They react when uncertainty becomes persistent enough to impair planning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席執行官不會根據一個戲劇性的頭條做出長期投資決策。當不確定性持續到足以影響規劃時，他們才會作出反應。</p>
</div><p>If the Iran conflict remains prolonged, the economic consequences extend well beyond oil producers or defense contractors. Airlines face margin pressure; shipping companies deal with route disruptions and insurance costs; manufacturers confront unpredictable input prices; and consumer businesses begin reassessing demand assumptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果伊朗衝突持續，經濟後果將遠遠超出石油生產國或國防承包商。航空公司面臨利潤壓力；航運公司面臨航線中斷和保險成本；製造商面臨不可預測的原材料價格；消費者企業開始重新評估需求假設。</p>
</div><p>War is a tax on decision-making. That tax is rarely measured directly, but investors feel its consequences through slower earnings growth, weaker business confidence and delayed investment activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>戰爭是決策的税收。這種税收很少被直接衡量，但投資者通過收益增長放緩、商業信心減弱和投資活動延遲感受到其後果。</p>
</div><p>Markets care about duration, not just escalation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場關心的是持續時間，而不僅僅是升級。</p>
</div><p>A single geopolitical shock can be absorbed. What markets struggle with is duration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>單一的地緣政治衝擊可以被吸收。市場所掙扎的是持續時間。</p>
</div><p>The key shift in the current conflict is not simply the escalation itself - it is the growing possibility that tensions remain elevated. This changes the economic equation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前衝突中的關鍵變化不僅僅是升級本身——而是緊張局勢持續升高的可能性。這改變了經濟方程式。</p>
</div><p>Short-term spikes in commodity prices create volatility. Prolonged instability begins altering behavior across the economy. Investors often underestimate that transition, because the first stage feels tradable. The second stage becomes structural.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商品價格的短期飆升會造成波動。長期的不穩定開始改變整個經濟的行為。投資者往往低估這種轉變，因為第一階段感覺可交易。第二階段則變得結構性。</p>
</div><p>The hidden inflation risk isn't immediate - it's cumulative</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隱藏的通貨膨脹風險並不是立刻顯現的——而是累積的。</p>
</div><p>Most investors understand that war can push oil prices higher. What receives less attention is how prolonged uncertainty feeds inflation indirectly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多數投資者理解戰爭會推高油價。但較少關注的是，長期的不確定性如何間接助長通貨膨脹。</p>
</div><p>Fuel costs affect transport; transport affects logistics; and logistics affect retail pricing. Packaging, plastics and manufacturing costs all respond to sustained energy pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>燃料成本影響運輸；運輸影響物流；物流影響零售定價。包裝、塑料和製造成本都對持續的能源壓力作出反應。</p>
</div><p>The inflation effect is not always dramatic in week one - it builds. That creates a difficult backdrop for markets already sensitive to inflation expectations, central-bank credibility and slowing growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通貨膨脹的影響在第一週並不總是戲劇性的——它是逐步累積的。這為已經對通貨膨脹預期、中央銀行信譽和經濟增長放緩敏感的市場創造了困難的背景。</p>
</div><p>Investors should watch confidence, not just crude prices</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者應關注信心，而不僅僅是原油價格。</p>
</div><p>If uncertainty persists and price swings remain violent, the economic damage compounds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果不確定性持續，價格波動仍然劇烈，經濟損害將加劇。</p>
</div><p>The critical indicator from here is not whether oil rises another $5 or $10 a barrel. It is whether volatility compresses or expands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從現在開始，關鍵指標不是油價是否再漲 5 美元或 10 美元，而是波動性是收縮還是擴張。</p>
</div><p>If markets stabilize, businesses can adapt. If uncertainty persists and price swings remain violent, the economic damage compounds even without an outright supply shock. The most expensive consequence of war is often not the price of energy itself; it is the inability of businesses, investors and consumers to confidently price what comes next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果市場穩定，企業可以適應。如果不確定性持續，價格波動仍然劇烈，即使沒有明顯的供應衝擊，經濟損害也會加劇。戰爭最昂貴的後果往往不是能源價格本身，而是企業、投資者和消費者無法自信地定價未來。</p>
</div><p>That is the distinction investors should focus on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是投資者應關注的區別。</p>
</div><p>Naeem Aslam is chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets in London.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Naeem Aslam 是倫敦 Zaye Capital Markets 的首席投資官。</p>
</div><p>More: Oil price charts produced a pattern not seen in 36 years. What happened last time?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更多：油價圖表呈現出 36 年來未見的模式。上次發生了什麼？</p>
</div><p>Also read: America's day of fiscal reckoning draws closer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另請閲讀：美國的財政清算日益臨近。</p>
</div><p>-Naeem Aslam</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Naeem Aslam</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和華爾街日報獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
</div><p>05-12-26 1516ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-12-26 1516ET</p>
</div>

The Iran war flashpoint isn't oil prices - it's not knowing what comes next

Dow Jones

F三星原油期

美國石油設備與服務 ETF - iShares

標普油氣設備與服務 ETF - SPDR

能源業 ETF - SPDR

美國 WTI 原油 ETF

美國油氣勘探與生產 ETF - iShares

油氣開採 ETF - SPDR

標普全球能源股指數 ETF - iShares

美國布倫特原油期貨基金

油氣服務 ETF - Market Vectors

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

能源業 ETF - Vanguard

伊朗戰爭的關鍵問題不在於油價，而在於無法預知接下來會發生什麼