<p>作者：Myra P. Saefong</p>
<p>銅精煉現在面臨霍爾木茲海峽的問題</p>
<p>週二，Comex 上的銅期貨以每磅 6.53 美元的歷史最高價收盤。</p>
<p>現在一磅銅的價格比以往任何時候都要高，而這個故事的背後不僅僅是人工智能的競爭。</p>
<p>硫酸是銅精煉的關鍵成分，最近由於伊朗戰爭和霍爾木茲海峽的運輸中斷，供應短缺。中國也對這種化學品的出口施加了限制，這兩個因素可能導致銅的生產成本上升。</p>
<p>RJO Futures 的高級市場策略師 John Caruso 表示：“銅價飆升至歷史最高水平是結構性供應問題的完美風暴的一個例子。” 他指出，銅礦石提取濃度的下降和波斯灣的供應瓶頸也與因人工智能擴張而推動的創紀錄需求 “正面碰撞”。</p>
<p>週二，銅價（HG00）以歷史最高價收盤，最活躍的七月期貨合約（HGN26）在 Comex 上以每磅 6.53 美元成交。根據道瓊斯市場數據，自伊朗戰爭開始以來，該金屬上漲了 7.8%，年初至今交易價格約高出 15%。</p>
<p>許多銅精煉的路徑都通向波斯灣。硫是生產硫酸的副產品，油氣豐富的國家如伊朗、科威特、卡塔爾、沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋去年生產了全球近四分之一的硫，來自美國國會研究服務處的報告顯示。</p>
<p>硫的價格最近也攀升至歷史高位，摩賽克公司（Mosaic Company，MOS）報告稱，其生產硫酸以製造磷酸鹽肥料的價格在週一發佈的第一季度業績中超過每公噸 1,200 美元。當被問及是否有進一步評論時，摩賽克公司指向其第一季度的財報和網絡廣播。</p>
<p>根據國會研究服務處的報告，除了硫，全球約一半的海運硫酸供應也來自中東。這種化學品在銅的浸出過程中至關重要，該過程涉及從銅礦石中提取金屬。</p>
<p>伊朗戰爭和霍爾木茲海峽對油輪交通的有效封閉已經持續的時間超過了許多人的預期。這引發了關於從中東運輸硫酸的替代路線的問題，Marex 的分析師 Edward Meir 表示。鑑於這種化學品的酸性和腐蝕性特質，裝載到卡車上將會很困難，他指出。</p>
<p>根據《華爾街日報》，中國在 5 月份開始限制硫酸的出口，這加劇了供應方面的問題。Freeport-McMoRan（FCX）是一家銅和其他金屬的礦業公司，據報道推遲了其在印度尼西亞的 Grasberg 礦的重啓，預計到 2028 年初才能恢復，Meir 表示。當這些報告在上週末出現時，助推了銅價的上漲，他補充道。</p>
<p>Global X Copper Miners 交易所交易基金 COPX 的股票週二連續第三個交易日上漲，交易上漲 1.2%，報 88.57 美元，而追蹤銅期貨表現的美國銅指數基金 CPER 也連續第三天上漲，週二上漲 1.5%，報 39.98 美元。</p>
<p>Freeport 尚未立即回應關於其 Grasberg 礦重啓計劃的評論請求，但路透社週一報道，該公司對延遲的報道表示異議，並仍然預計該礦將在 2027 年底前恢復全面生產。</p>
<p>然而，銅市場的上漲不僅僅是由於供應限制的加劇，還受到 “耐久需求增長碰撞” 的推動，Sprott 資產管理公司的 ETF 產品管理總監 Jacob White 表示。</p>
<p>人工智能顯然是這一需求故事的一部分，特別是通過數據中心和支持它們的電力基礎設施，White 告訴 MarketWatch。這種需求對價格上漲的抵抗力更強，也不太可能因成本上升而下降，他表示。</p>
<p>閲讀存檔故事：為什麼投資者應該開始將銅視為貴金屬</p>
<p>即使在供應中斷之前，礦石品位的下降導致銅的產量減少，已成為一個日益嚴重的問題，White 表示。銅還面臨着較長的發展週期和新礦項目的限制。</p>
<p>金屬的高價格可以幫助提高生產並最終增加供應，同時也會減少需求。但供應受到 “地質、許可和基礎設施現實” 的限制，這些現實在短期內無法解決，White 指出。</p>
<p>市場 “越來越發出信號，表明滿足未來銅需求可能不僅需要更高的價格，還需要協調政策行動以支持更快的項目開發和供應韌性，” 他説。</p>
<p>展望未來，White 補充道，銅可能不需要新的需求驚喜就能推動價格上漲，因為它在促進經濟增長方面已證明了其重要性和價值。這種環境在 2026 年前仍然對銅價和銅礦股保持支持。</p>
<p>-Myra P. Saefong</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞社和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
<p>05-12-26 1743ET</p>

江西銅業

自由港邁克墨倫銅金礦

必和必拓

<p>銅價已達到每磅 6.53 美元的歷史高位，主要受到供應方面問題的推動，包括伊朗戰爭和中國硫酸出口限制。成本上升歸因於銅礦石品位下降和波斯灣的生產瓶頸。對銅的需求也受到人工智能擴張的推動，尤其是在數據中心方面。分析師建議，滿足未來銅需求將需要更高的價格和協調的政策行動</p>

<p>By Myra P. Saefong</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Myra P. Saefong</p>
</div><p>Copper refining now has a Strait of Hormuz problem</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銅精煉現在面臨霍爾木茲海峽的問題</p>
</div><p>Copper futures on Comex settled at a record high of $6.53 a pound on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週二，Comex 上的銅期貨以每磅 6.53 美元的歷史最高價收盤。</p>
</div><p>A pound of copper now costs more than ever before - and there's more to the story than just the artificial-intelligence race.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在一磅銅的價格比以往任何時候都要高，而這個故事的背後不僅僅是人工智能的競爭。</p>
</div><p>Sulfuric acid, a critical component in copper refining, has been in shorter supply lately because of the Iran war and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. China also has placed restrictions on exports of the chemical - and both of those factors are likely increasing copper's production costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>硫酸是銅精煉的關鍵成分，最近由於伊朗戰爭和霍爾木茲海峽的運輸中斷，供應短缺。中國也對這種化學品的出口施加了限制，這兩個因素可能導致銅的生產成本上升。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Copper prices stretching to all-time highs is an example of a perfect storm of structural supply-side issues,&#34; said John Caruso, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. He said declines in the concentration of copper extracted from rock and supply bottlenecks in the Persian Gulf also have been &#34;colliding head on&#34; with record levels of demand fueled by AI expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>RJO Futures 的高級市場策略師 John Caruso 表示：“銅價飆升至歷史最高水平是結構性供應問題的完美風暴的一個例子。” 他指出，銅礦石提取濃度的下降和波斯灣的供應瓶頸也與因人工智能擴張而推動的創紀錄需求 “正面碰撞”。</p>
</div><p>Copper prices (HG00) settled at a record high on Tuesday, with the most actively traded July futures contract (HGN26) at $6.53 a pound on Comex. The metal has gained 7.8% since the start of the Iran war, according to Dow Jones Market Data, and is trading about 15% higher year to date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週二，銅價（HG00）以歷史最高價收盤，最活躍的七月期貨合約（HGN26）在 Comex 上以每磅 6.53 美元成交。根據道瓊斯市場數據，自伊朗戰爭開始以來，該金屬上漲了 7.8%，年初至今交易價格約高出 15%。</p>
</div><p>Many of the paths to refining copper lead back to the Persian Gulf. Sulfur, which is used to produce sulfuric acid, is a byproduct of the oil-refining process. Oil-rich countries such as Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. produced almost a quarter of the world's supply of sulfur last year, according to a report from the Congressional Research Service, the U.S. Congress's think tank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多銅精煉的路徑都通向波斯灣。硫是生產硫酸的副產品，油氣豐富的國家如伊朗、科威特、卡塔爾、沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋去年生產了全球近四分之一的硫，來自美國國會研究服務處的報告顯示。</p>
</div><p>Prices for sulfur also recently climbed to record highs - with the Mosaic Company (MOS), which produces sulfuric acid to make phosphate-based fertilizer, reporting prices of more than $1,200 per metric ton in its first-quarter results released Monday. When asked if it had further comment, Mosaic referred back to its first-quarter earnings results and webcast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>硫的價格最近也攀升至歷史高位，摩賽克公司（Mosaic Company，MOS）報告稱，其生產硫酸以製造磷酸鹽肥料的價格在週一發佈的第一季度業績中超過每公噸 1,200 美元。當被問及是否有進一步評論時，摩賽克公司指向其第一季度的財報和網絡廣播。</p>
</div><p>In addition to sulfur, roughly half of the world's seaborne supply of sulfuric acid also comes from the Middle East, according to the report from the Congressional Research Service. The chemical is essential in the leaching process of copper, which involves extracting the metal from copper ore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據國會研究服務處的報告，除了硫，全球約一半的海運硫酸供應也來自中東。這種化學品在銅的浸出過程中至關重要，該過程涉及從銅礦石中提取金屬。</p>
</div><p>The Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic already has lasted longer than many expected. That's raising questions about alternative routes to get sulfuric acid out of the Middle East, said Edward Meir, an analyst at Marex. Given the chemical's acidic and corrosive qualities, it would be difficult to load it onto a truck, he noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗戰爭和霍爾木茲海峽對油輪交通的有效封閉已經持續的時間超過了許多人的預期。這引發了關於從中東運輸硫酸的替代路線的問題，Marex 的分析師 Edward Meir 表示。鑑於這種化學品的酸性和腐蝕性特質，裝載到卡車上將會很困難，他指出。</p>
</div><p>Contributing to supply-side issues, China started restricting its exports of sulfuric acid in May, according to the Wall Street Journal. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), which mines copper and other metals, reportedly postponed a restart of its Grasberg mine in Indonesia to early 2028, Meir said. When those reports emerged late last week, they contributed to the rise in copper prices, he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據《華爾街日報》，中國在 5 月份開始限制硫酸的出口，這加劇了供應方面的問題。Freeport-McMoRan（FCX）是一家銅和其他金屬的礦業公司，據報道推遲了其在印度尼西亞的 Grasberg 礦的重啓，預計到 2028 年初才能恢復，Meir 表示。當這些報告在上週末出現時，助推了銅價的上漲，他補充道。</p>
</div><p>Shares of the Global X Copper Miners exchange-traded fund COPX were up for a third session in a row Tuesday, trading up 1.2% at $88.57, while the United States Copper Index Fund CPER, which tracks copper futures' performance, was also up a third straight day, climbing 1.5% to $39.98 in Tuesday dealings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Global X Copper Miners 交易所交易基金 COPX 的股票週二連續第三個交易日上漲，交易上漲 1.2%，報 88.57 美元，而追蹤銅期貨表現的美國銅指數基金 CPER 也連續第三天上漲，週二上漲 1.5%，報 39.98 美元。</p>
</div><p>Freeport didn't immediately respond to a request for comment on its plans for the Grasberg mine's restart, but Reuters reported Monday that the company disputed the reports of delays and still expects the mine to resume full production by the end of 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Freeport 尚未立即回應關於其 Grasberg 礦重啓計劃的評論請求，但路透社週一報道，該公司對延遲的報道表示異議，並仍然預計該礦將在 2027 年底前恢復全面生產。</p>
</div><p>The rally in the copper market, however, isn't just about escalating supply constraints - it's also being driven by the &#34;collision of durable demand growth,&#34; said Jacob White, director of ETF product management at Sprott Asset Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，銅市場的上漲不僅僅是由於供應限制的加劇，還受到 “耐久需求增長碰撞” 的推動，Sprott 資產管理公司的 ETF 產品管理總監 Jacob White 表示。</p>
</div><p>AI is clearly part of that demand story, particularly through data centers and the power infrastructure that support them, White told MarketWatch. That's the type of demand that is more resistant to a rise in prices, and less likely to decline because of higher costs, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能顯然是這一需求故事的一部分，特別是通過數據中心和支持它們的電力基礎設施，White 告訴 MarketWatch。這種需求對價格上漲的抵抗力更強，也不太可能因成本上升而下降，他表示。</p>
</div><p>Read archived story: Why it's time for investors to start treating copper like a precious metal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>閲讀存檔故事：為什麼投資者應該開始將銅視為貴金屬</p>
</div><p>Even before the supply disruptions, a decline in the grades of ore available, which results in less copper yielded, has been a growing issue, White said. Copper has also faced long development timelines and limits to new mining projects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在供應中斷之前，礦石品位的下降導致銅的產量減少，已成為一個日益嚴重的問題，White 表示。銅還面臨着較長的發展週期和新礦項目的限制。</p>
</div><p>High prices for the metal can help boost production and eventually supply, and reduce demand too. But supply has been constrained by &#34;geology, permitting and infrastructure realities&#34; - realities that cannot be resolved in the short term, noted White.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金屬的高價格可以幫助提高生產並最終增加供應，同時也會減少需求。但供應受到 “地質、許可和基礎設施現實” 的限制，這些現實在短期內無法解決，White 指出。</p>
</div><p>The market is &#34;increasingly signaling that meeting future copper demand will likely require not only higher prices, but coordinated policy action to support faster project development and supply resilience,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場 “越來越發出信號，表明滿足未來銅需求可能不僅需要更高的價格，還需要協調政策行動以支持更快的項目開發和供應韌性，” 他説。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, copper likely won't require a new demand surprise to get prices to move higher, White added, as it's proven its significance and value when it comes to contributing to economic growth. That's an environment that remains supportive for copper prices and copper-mining equities through 2026, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未來，White 補充道，銅可能不需要新的需求驚喜就能推動價格上漲，因為它在促進經濟增長方面已證明了其重要性和價值。這種環境在 2026 年前仍然對銅價和銅礦股保持支持。</p>
</div><p>-Myra P. Saefong</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Myra P. Saefong</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞社和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
</div><p>05-12-26 1743ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-12-26 1743ET</p>
</div>

Copper prices are now at their highest level on record. AI is only part of the story.

Dow Jones

南方銅業

Hudbay Minerals

泰克資源

ERO Copper

Sprott Copper Miners ETF

Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF

銅礦 ETF - GlobalX

iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF

美國銅指數基金 - Concierge Technologies

美盛

Marex

Sprott

銅價目前已達到歷史最高水平。人工智能只是其中的一個因素