<p>招商證券（香港）(CMSI) 發佈報告稱，五一假期後的渠道檢查顯示，海底撈（06862.HK）+0.050 (+0.331%) 空頭頭寸為 8152 萬美元；比例為 111.762%。在同店基礎上實現了強勁反彈，平均桌面週轉率錄得中單位數的改善。這主要得益於顧客流量的高單位數增長，抵消了由於促銷折扣導致的顧客平均消費的低單位數下降。與第一季度的疲軟表現相比（該券商預計收入同比下降低單位數），假期數據顯示出明顯的環比改善，並延續了四月份的高單位數收入恢復趨勢。展望未來，CMSI 預計這種勢頭將延續到傳統的夏季旺季，並推動上半年收入增長至同比低至中單位數的範圍。然而，這一增長軌跡仍低於市場更樂觀的預期，後者普遍預測全年增長為雙位數。</p>
<p>關於利潤率，CMSI 指出海底撈正在積極應對近期的成本壓力，特別是牛肉等原材料成本的上漲，這正在擠壓毛利率。此外，運營利潤率的擴張可能受到重組成本和外賣業務更高貢獻的拖累。在創始人迴歸後，公司正經歷轉型階段，並推出了一系列戰略舉措，包括 “一店一策” 的門店改造計劃、子品牌優化（如目前虧損的 “燕青燒烤”）以及向低層市場的特許經營擴展。這些結構性調整，加上低毛利外賣業務的快速擴張（該業務在 2025 年規模翻倍，但門店級別的毛利率僅為 3% 至 4%），可能在短期內稀釋整體盈利能力。綜合考慮收入和利潤率趨勢，CMSI 認為公司的短期恢復仍受到轉型相關痛苦的制約。</p>
<p>CMSI 將 2026/27 年的收入增長預測上調了約 2.5%，以反映自年初以來線下流量的改善。將 EBITDA 預測下調了約 9%，以考慮輸入成本通脹和重組費用可能帶來的成本壓力。今年和明年的淨利潤預測平均下調了 7%。儘管海底撈提供超過 5% 的吸引人股息收益率，提供了一定的下行保護，CMSI 仍維持中性評級。目標價略微上調，從 15.3 港元提高至 16 港元。（da/u）（香港股票報價延遲至少 15 分鐘。空頭數據截至 2026 年 5 月 12 日 16:25。）</p>

海底撈

<p>中國招商證券（香港）（CMSI）已將海底撈的目標價從 15.3 港元上調至 16 港元，維持中性評級。近期的渠道調查顯示，儘管人均消費下降，但由於顧客流量增加，同店銷售強勁反彈。CMSI 預計上半年收入將實現低至中個位數的增長，但這低於市場對雙位數增長的預期。公司面臨成本壓力和轉型挑戰，導致其對今年和明年的 EBITDA 預測下調 9%，淨利潤預測下調 7%。海底撈的股息收益率超過 5%</p>

<p>China Merchants Securities (HK) (CMSI) issued a report stating that its post-Labour Day channel checks indicate HAIDILAO (06862.HK) +0.050 (+0.331%)  Short selling $81.52M; Ratio 111.762%  achieved a strong rebound on a same-store basis, with average table turnover rate recording a mid-teens improvement. This was mainly driven by a high-teens increase in customer traffic, offsetting a low single-digit decline in average spending per customer due to promotional discounts. Compared with the weak performance in 1Q (the broker expects revenue to decline by a low single-digit YoY), holiday data showed clear QoQ improvement and continued the high single-digit revenue recovery trend seen in April. Looking ahead, CMSI expects the momentum to extend into the traditional summer peak season and drive 1H revenue growth to the low-to-mid single-digit YoY range. However, this growth trajectory still falls short of more optimistic market expectations, which generally forecast double-digit full-year growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>招商證券（香港）(CMSI) 發佈報告稱，五一假期後的渠道檢查顯示，海底撈（06862.HK）+0.050 (+0.331%) 空頭頭寸為 8152 萬美元；比例為 111.762%。在同店基礎上實現了強勁反彈，平均桌面週轉率錄得中單位數的改善。這主要得益於顧客流量的高單位數增長，抵消了由於促銷折扣導致的顧客平均消費的低單位數下降。與第一季度的疲軟表現相比（該券商預計收入同比下降低單位數），假期數據顯示出明顯的環比改善，並延續了四月份的高單位數收入恢復趨勢。展望未來，CMSI 預計這種勢頭將延續到傳統的夏季旺季，並推動上半年收入增長至同比低至中單位數的範圍。然而，這一增長軌跡仍低於市場更樂觀的預期，後者普遍預測全年增長為雙位數。</p>
</div><p>On margins, CMSI noted that HAIDILAO is actively addressing near-term cost pressures, particularly rising raw material costs such as beef, which are squeezing gross margin. In addition, operating margin expansion may be dragged by restructuring costs and a higher contribution from the delivery business. Following the founders return, the company is undergoing a transformation phase and has launched a series of strategic initiatives, including a &#34;one store, one strategy&#34; outlet revamp plan, sub-brand optimization (such as the currently loss-making &#34;Yanqing BBQ&#34;), and franchise expansion into lower-tier markets. These structural adjustments, coupled with the rapid expansion of the low-margin delivery business (which doubled in scale in 2025 but carries a store-level margin of only 3% to 4%), may dilute overall profitability in the short term. Taking both revenue and margin trends into account, CMSI believes the companys near-term recovery remains constrained by transformation-related pains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於利潤率，CMSI 指出海底撈正在積極應對近期的成本壓力，特別是牛肉等原材料成本的上漲，這正在擠壓毛利率。此外，運營利潤率的擴張可能受到重組成本和外賣業務更高貢獻的拖累。在創始人迴歸後，公司正經歷轉型階段，並推出了一系列戰略舉措，包括 “一店一策” 的門店改造計劃、子品牌優化（如目前虧損的 “燕青燒烤”）以及向低層市場的特許經營擴展。這些結構性調整，加上低毛利外賣業務的快速擴張（該業務在 2025 年規模翻倍，但門店級別的毛利率僅為 3% 至 4%），可能在短期內稀釋整體盈利能力。綜合考慮收入和利潤率趨勢，CMSI 認為公司的短期恢復仍受到轉型相關痛苦的制約。</p>
</div><p>CMSI raised its revenue growth forecasts for 2026/27 by an average of about 2.5% to reflect the improvement in offline traffic since the beginning of the year. It lowered its EBITDA forecasts by an average of about 9% to factor in potential cost pressures from input cost inflation and restructuring expenses. Net profit forecasts for this year and next were cut by an average of 7%. Despite HAIDILAO offering an attractive dividend yield of over 5%, providing some downside cushion, CMSI maintained its Neutral rating. The TP was slightly raised from HKD15.3 to HKD16. (da/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-12 16:25.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CMSI 將 2026/27 年的收入增長預測上調了約 2.5%，以反映自年初以來線下流量的改善。將 EBITDA 預測下調了約 9%，以考慮輸入成本通脹和重組費用可能帶來的成本壓力。今年和明年的淨利潤預測平均下調了 7%。儘管海底撈提供超過 5% 的吸引人股息收益率，提供了一定的下行保護，CMSI 仍維持中性評級。目標價略微上調，從 15.3 港元提高至 16 港元。（da/u）（香港股票報價延遲至少 15 分鐘。空頭數據截至 2026 年 5 月 12 日 16:25。）</p>
</div>

CMSI 將海底撈的目標價格上調至 16 港元，並維持中性評級