<p>摩根士丹利發佈報告，將今年和明年的中國經濟增長預測分別上調 0.1 個百分點至 4.8% 和 4.7%，這得益於強勁的出口、人工智能和綠色資本支出。由於強勁的出口減少了刺激措施的緊迫性，該行已撤回對 2026 年下半年推出財政刺激和貨幣寬鬆的預測。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利還將反映通脹的 GDP 平減指數預測上調 0.3 個百分點至 0.5%。然而，該行認為再通脹的空間有限，因為勞動力市場依然疲軟，房地產市場仍處於調整階段，消費保持低迷。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利表示，如果中國的出口繼續表現強勁，中國人民銀行可能會允許人民幣適度升值，將人民幣對美元的年末目標從 7 上調至 6.75。如果經濟增長超出預期，避險情緒減弱，導致美元走弱，人民幣可能在短期內升值至 6.7，然後在明年中期回落至約 6.8。然而，中國人民銀行仍然擔心國內價格疲軟，不太可能依賴人民幣升值來解決經濟增長失衡的問題。 (mn/da)</p>

A惠理人民幣

A博時人民幣

A博時人民幣-R

A華夏人民幣

<p>摩根士丹利已將 2023 年中國經濟增長預測上調至 4.8%，2024 年預測上調至 4.7%，理由是強勁的出口和對人工智能及綠色資本的投資。該銀行已撤回對財政刺激和貨幣寬鬆的預測，原因是出口表現強勁。它還將 GDP 平減指數的預測調整為 0.5%。摩根士丹利預計人民幣對美元將適度升值，將年末目標調整為 6.75，可能會根據經濟表現和美元強度出現波動</p>

<p>M Stanley released a report raising its China Econ growth forecasts for this year and next by 0.1 ppts to 4.8% and 4.7%, respectively, supported by strong exports, artificial intelligence and green capital expenditure. As robust exports have reduced the urgency for stimulus measures, the bank has withdrawn its forecasts for fiscal stimulus and monetary easing to be launched in 2H26.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利發佈報告，將今年和明年的中國經濟增長預測分別上調 0.1 個百分點至 4.8% 和 4.7%，這得益於強勁的出口、人工智能和綠色資本支出。由於強勁的出口減少了刺激措施的緊迫性，該行已撤回對 2026 年下半年推出財政刺激和貨幣寬鬆的預測。</p>
</div><p>M Stanley also lifted its forecast for the GDP deflator, which reflects inflation, by 0.3 ppts to 0.5%. However, it believes the scope for reflation is limited, as the labor market remains weak and the property market is still in an adjustment phase, leaving consumption subdued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利還將反映通脹的 GDP 平減指數預測上調 0.3 個百分點至 0.5%。然而，該行認為再通脹的空間有限，因為勞動力市場依然疲軟，房地產市場仍處於調整階段，消費保持低迷。</p>
</div><p>M Stanley said that if Chinas exports continue to perform strongly, the Peoples Bank of China may allow the RMB to appreciate modestly, raising its year-end target for the RMB against the USD from 7 to 6.75. If economic growth exceeds expectations and safe-haven sentiment fades, leading to a weaker USD, the RMB may strengthen to 6.7 in the near term before edging down to around 6.8 by mid next year. Nevertheless, the Peoples Bank of China remains concerned about weak domestic prices and is unlikely to rely on RMB appreciation to address economic growth imbalances. (mn/da)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利表示，如果中國的出口繼續表現強勁，中國人民銀行可能會允許人民幣適度升值，將人民幣對美元的年末目標從 7 上調至 6.75。如果經濟增長超出預期，避險情緒減弱，導致美元走弱，人民幣可能在短期內升值至 6.7，然後在明年中期回落至約 6.8。然而，中國人民銀行仍然擔心國內價格疲軟，不太可能依賴人民幣升值來解決經濟增長失衡的問題。 (mn/da)</p>
</div>

M Stanley Raises China Econ Growth Forecast to 4.8% This Year, Sees RMB at 6.75 vs USD by Year-end

AASTOCKS News

摩根士丹利

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS EA REP 1/1000 SHS NON CUM PFD O

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PFD SER Q

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 7.125% PFD E

MORGAN STANLEY NON-CUM DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER I

MORGAN STANLEY 4.875 DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NCUM PFD SR L

MORGAN STANLEY 6.5%DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000 NON CUM SER P

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 PFD SER 'A'

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH INT PFD SER 'F' FX

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NON-CUM PFD STK SER K

摩根士丹利將今年中國經濟增長預測上調至 4.8%，預計年底人民幣兑美元匯率為 6.75